Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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234
FXUS64 KMAF 231943
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
243 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Seeing our first sign of CU development along the dryline which runs
from Lubbock to Lamesa to Midland at 2 PM. Expect clouds to continue
to build into the afternoon as the dryline pushes east. Short range
models develop convection along and east of the dryline over the
next few hours. SPC mesoanalysis shows nearly 3000 J/kg of MUCAPE
and low and mid level lapse rates >8 C/km over the eastern Permian
Basin and lower Trans Pecos. One ingredient lacking is the overall
shear which is only about 20 to 30 kts. With the approach of the
storm system, still expect shear to increase into the late afternoon
and evening. Any storm that develops will have the chance to become
severe with large hail and damaging winds being the main threat.
These storms should move east of the area late tonight with clearing
skies following. Winds continue to increase across the Guadalupe
Mountains this afternoon so will let the High Wind Warning ride
there.

A cold front will move in behind the system, sliding through the
area Thursday morning. Temperatures will cool slightly Thursday
afternoon with highs mostly in the 80s. Attention then turns to the
west again as our next storm system digs south along the CA coast. A
large upper trough will move east across the Desert SW late this
week before lifting into the Plains Sunday. This will set up a
dryline across the area once again Friday and Saturday. A few storms
may fire Friday east of the dryline across the eastern Permian
Basin, but short-wave ridging should limit the extent. By Saturday
afternoon, the upper trough will move closer to the area enhancing
lift and increasing upper level shear. Intense sfc heating and ample
moisture return will lead to strong instability east of the dryline.
A deeper trough this time around could lead to a farther west
dryline solution. Models largely disagree in the placement of the
dryline Saturday afternoon with the GFS/ECMWF over the central
Permian Basin, and the NAM east of our CWA. Will side with the long
range models for now as the NAM has a tendency to shift the dryline
west with time.

Sunday looks very windy as the base of the upper trough moves across
the area. The strong west winds will likely lead to high wind
headlines and elevated fire danger across parts or most of the
region. A cold front will arrive later Monday into Tuesday ushering
much cooler conditions by midweek.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A dryline pushing east has left very dry air in its wake.  Minimum
RH below 15 percent along with 20ft winds of 20 mph or greater has
created critical fire wx conditions.  Will continue the Red Flag
Warning the rest of the afternoon into this evening for Southeast
New Mexico plains and Guadalupe Mountains.  A cold front will blow
through early Thursday lessening the fire wx concerns for a couple
days.  Could see isolated locations such as the Guadalupes near
critical Friday but more widespread concerns will return Saturday
and Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 58  81  54  89  /  10   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              60  83  55  92  /  20   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                54  83  50  91  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  65  95  62  93  /  20   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           59  86  59  92  /  10   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          55  76  57  82  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   51  78  48  87  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   46  79  42  85  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    60  84  56  91  /  10   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  61  84  58  90  /  10   0   0  10
WINK TX                    57  85  55  92  /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast
     Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

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