Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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720
FXUS64 KMAF 281940
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
140 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A flattened upper ridge, or zonal flow aloft, will prevail for much
of the next 7 days.  Above normal temperatures will continue through
the rest of Thanksgiving weekend as a result with a surface trough
developing/strengthening into the forecast area Saturday and aiding
the warmup.  Westerly winds will increase somewhat to the west of
this surface trough with speeds in Guadalupe Pass rising to near 40
mph sustained Saturday afternoon.  Since the duration of these
stronger winds looks to be brief, will only make a mention in the
Hazardous Weather Outlook.

A shortwave trough translating eastward along the U.S./Canadian
border Sunday/Monday will propel a modified arctic airmass south
through the central U.S. Plains in it`s wake.  This front will
likely make it to the Big Bend region by Monday afternoon with
temperatures dropping to around 15 degrees below normal for
locations along and north of Interstate 10.  However, the parent
surface ridge will be shunted eastward rather quickly Tuesday, with
temperatures modifying to slightly below normal Tuesday afternoon,
and normal Wednesday and beyond.  Rain chances will be nil due to
dry ambient air ahead and behind the front.

A southern stream shortwave trough will head for the region late
this week as split upper upper flow over the eastern Pacific
migrates eastward onto the western ConUS.  Will keep the slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms already in the forecast on
Friday for the onset of this feature.  Temperatures will stay near
seasonal levels into next weekend as this ua trough trough passes.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 37  76  40  75  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              44  77  44  76  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                35  75  38  75  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  44  76  45  75  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           46  78  48  79  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          44  69  47  68  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   35  74  38  73  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   26  71  29  68  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    42  76  41  77  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  43  75  43  76  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    36  77  39  78  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05/67

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210
FXUS64 KMAF 281746
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1146 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and no significant weather will continue across
southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas through mid-day Saturday.
Winds across the area will be generally south to southwest at less
than 12 knots this afternoon with winds a little higher at FST and
MAF. Winds will be light overnight, except for FST where winds
will continue around 12 knots through the night.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Clear skies and VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast
period. Winds will remain southwesterly, increasing this afternoon
to 8-12KT, with gusts up to around 20KT possible. While gusts
should diminish early Friday evening, KFST could see winds remain
up around 12-13KT through the night.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Will start the day with an upper ridge centered over the western
U.S. with an upper trough along the East Coast.  This ridge will
build east the next few days flattening out with flow becoming zonal
across the county.  Look for unseasonably mild wx to continue
through the weekend.

Have removed mention of patchy fog this morning... not looking
likely as temp/dewpt spread too large as wind has stayed up and
limited nocturnal cooling.

A surface trough extending down from CO across the area will produce
a warm S/SW wind today across the area.  The combination of sunny
days... clear nights... and dry air will result in large diurnal
temperature swings today through Sunday... lows in the 30s/40s and highs
in the 70s.

A mid level trough moving across the Rockies Monday will push a cold
front through the area bringing colder wx to the region.  Fropa
looks windy with a tight pressure gradient...  have increased winds
and decreased temps.  Front should hit northern CWA around
midnight... push well into the area by sunrise Monday and then be
pushing toward the Mexican border by midday.  Temperatures begin to
recover quickly Tuesday as the wind comes back around to the south
with conditions warming through the end of the week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05

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917
FXUS64 KMAF 281130
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
530 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Clear skies and VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast
period. Winds will remain southwesterly, increasing this afternoon
to 8-12KT, with gusts up to around 20KT possible. While gusts
should diminish early Friday evening, KFST could see winds remain
up around 12-13KT through the night.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Will start the day with an upper ridge centered over the western
U.S. with an upper trough along the East Coast.  This ridge will
build east the next few days flattening out with flow becoming zonal
across the county.  Look for unseasonably mild wx to continue
through the weekend.

Have removed mention of patchy fog this morning... not looking
likely as temp/dewpt spread too large as wind has stayed up and
limited nocturnal cooling.

A surface trough extending down from CO across the area will produce
a warm S/SW wind today across the area.  The combination of sunny
days... clear nights... and dry air will result in large diurnal
temperature swings today through Sunday... lows in the 30s/40s and highs
in the 70s.

A mid level trough moving across the Rockies Monday will push a cold
front through the area bringing colder wx to the region.  Fropa
looks windy with a tight pressure gradient...  have increased winds
and decreased temps.  Front should hit northern CWA around
midnight... push well into the area by sunrise Monday and then be
pushing toward the Mexican border by midday.  Temperatures begin to
recover quickly Tuesday as the wind comes back around to the south
with conditions warming through the end of the week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/72

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923
FXUS64 KMAF 280940
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
340 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Will start the day with an upper ridge centered over the western
U.S. with an upper trough along the East Coast.  This ridge will
build east the next few days flattening out with flow becoming zonal
across the county.  Look for unseasonably mild wx to continue
through the weekend.

Have removed mention of patchy fog this morning... not looking
likely as temp/dewpt spread too large as wind has stayed up and
limited nocturnal cooling.

A surface trough extending down from CO across the area will produce
a warm S/SW wind today across the area.  The combination of sunny
days... clear nights... and dry air will result in large diurnal
temperature swings today through Sunday... lows in the 30s/40s and highs
in the 70s.

A mid level trough moving across the Rockies Monday will push a cold
front through the area bringing colder wx to the region.  Fropa
looks windy with a tight pressure gradient...  have increased winds
and decreased temps.  Front should hit northern CWA around
midnight... push well into the area by sunrise Monday and then be
pushing toward the Mexican border by midday.  Temperatures begin to
recover quickly Tuesday as the wind comes back around to the south
with conditions warming through the end of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 71  36  74  38  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              72  39  74  42  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                74  34  78  39  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  71  41  75  43  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           75  44  81  46  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          66  40  68  43  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   72  34  74  37  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   69  25  72  28  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    71  37  74  40  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  72  38  75  41  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    74  37  79  38  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/72

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190
FXUS64 KMAF 280505
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1105 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours under clear skies.
Wind speeds will generally range from 5 to 15 mph with some gusts
possible Friday afternoon. There is a slight chance of some light
fog near sunrise Friday at some of the terminals but confidence was
not high enough at this time to include anywhere.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84

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619
FXUS64 KMAF 272304
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
504 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours under clear skies.
Winds will generally be less than 10 knots for most of the TAF
period. There is a slight chance of some light fog near sunrise
Friday at some of the terminals but confidence was not high enough
at this time to include anywhere.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

* Warm Thanksgiving day weekend ahead!
* Patchy fog late tonight?
* Strong Arctic front arriving early Monday morning
* Modest warming through next Thursday

We`ll get smacked back into winter Monday...more on that later.

Westerly to southwesterly flow will prevail for the next few days.
We will see a modest increase in low level moisture overnight, and
this in turn may create conditions favorable for patchy fog between
midnight to about 8 am.  Temperatures will be some 10 to 15 degrees
above normal Friday through Sunday.  Carpe diem!

A developing split flow regime across the eastern Pacific will dislodge
a pile of Arctic air over Canada this weekend. This wedge of unseasonably
cold air will arrive (faster and a bit colder than a consensus of
models suggest) across west Texas and southeastern New Mexico
beginning very early Monday morning. The front should shoot down
to the Pecos by sunrise Monday, then through the Big Bend by noon.
We`ll see a drastic swing in temperatures between Sunday and
Monday, with highs Sunday around 10 degrees above normal, then
down to 15 to 20 degrees below normal for high temperatures
Monday. Limited moisture and meager dynamics will mean a dry
frontal passage; however, wouldn`t be surprised to see some V dot
del(dirt) coming off the cotton fields of the South Plains Monday,
resulting in blowing dust conditions

Winds will quickly turn to the south Tuesday, but the cold air
will modify only slightly. We`ll see some clouds Wednesday and
Thursday as temperatures warm to around normal for the first week
of December. Dry conditions look to continue as well, at least
through next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 37  72  39  73  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              41  72  41  73  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                31  73  37  76  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  36  71  43  73  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           41  75  42  79  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          42  64  41  68  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   30  73  35  73  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   26  67  38  70  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    38  71  38  72  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  40  72  39  73  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    32  75  40  76  /   0   0   0   0

&&


.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/70

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573
FXUS64 KMAF 272055
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
255 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

* Warm Thanksgiving day weekend ahead!
* Patchy fog late tonight?
* Strong Arctic front arriving early Monday morning
* Modest warming through next Thursday

We`ll get smacked back into winter Monday...more on that later.

Westerly to southwesterly flow will prevail for the next few days.
We will see a modest increase in low level moisture overnight, and
this in turn may create conditions favorable for patchy fog between
midnight to about 8 am.  Temperatures will be some 10 to 15 degrees
above normal Friday through Sunday.  Carpe diem!

A developing split flow regime across the eastern Pacific will dislodge
a pile of Arctic air over Canada this weekend. This wedge of unseasonably
cold air will arrive (faster and a bit colder than a consensus of
models suggest) across west Texas and southeastern New Mexico
beginning very early Monday morning. The front should shoot down
to the Pecos by sunrise Monday, then through the Big Bend by noon.
We`ll see a drastic swing in temperatures between Sunday and
Monday, with highs Sunday around 10 degrees above normal, then
down to 15 to 20 degrees below normal for high temperatures
Monday. Limited moisture and meager dynamics will mean a dry
frontal passage; however, wouldn`t be surprised to see some V dot
del(dirt) coming off the cotton fields of the South Plains Monday,
resulting in blowing dust conditions

Winds will quickly turn to the south Tuesday, but the cold air
will modify only slightly. We`ll see some clouds Wednesday and
Thursday as temperatures warm to around normal for the first week
of December. Dry conditions look to continue as well, at least
through next weekend.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 37  72  39  73  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              41  72  41  73  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                31  73  37  76  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  36  71  43  73  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           41  75  42  79  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          42  64  41  68  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   30  73  35  73  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   26  67  38  70  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    38  71  38  72  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  40  72  39  73  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    32  75  40  76  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/70

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563
FXUS64 KMAF 271723
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1123 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all area terminals during the next
24 hours.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over the Intermountain west will build east the
next several days.  This ridge will flatten out with zonal flow
across the county... look for mild wx to continuing through the
weekend with sunny days and clear nights.

In years past have had snow on Thanksgiving day but not this year as
will have very good wx for anyone traveling across the region.  Had
a weak front move through the area yesterday so will start the day
with a light east wind over most of the area but will come around to
the south as a new leeside trough develops.  Highs today will be
near normal and in the 60s.  S/SW wind will be a little stronger on
Friday and may be gusty in the afternoon as pressure gradient
associated with a surface low over CO tightens.  This will result in
noticeably warmer temps on Friday as highs climb it into the 70s.
Saturday and Sunday will have 70s too.  On Monday a cold front blows
through the area bringing a brief return to cooler wx but by Tuesday
temperatures should return to near normal.

The forecast looks dry through next Wednesday.  Models have been
trying to develop some precip in the extended but the next upper
trough now looks to weaken and pass north of the area so not
expecting much.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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635
FXUS64 KMAF 271105
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
505 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period, with
clear skies and light southeast winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over the Intermountain west will build east the
next several days.  This ridge will flatten out with zonal flow
across the county... look for mild wx to continuing through the
weekend with sunny days and clear nights.

In years past have had snow on Thanksgiving day but not this year as
will have very good wx for anyone traveling across the region.  Had
a weak front move through the area yesterday so will start the day
with a light east wind over most of the area but will come around to
the south as a new leeside trough develops.  Highs today will be
near normal and in the 60s.  S/SW wind will be a little stronger on
Friday and may be gusty in the afternoon as pressure gradient
associated with a surface low over CO tightens.  This will result in
noticeably warmer temps on Friday as highs climb it into the 70s.
Saturday and Sunday will have 70s too.  On Monday a cold front blows
through the area bringing a brief return to cooler wx but by Tuesday
temperatures should return to near normal.

The forecast looks dry through next Wednesday.  Models have been
trying to develop some precip in the extended but the next upper
trough now looks to weaken and pass north of the area so not
expecting much.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/72

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782
FXUS64 KMAF 270937
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
337 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over the Intermountain west will build east the
next several days.  This ridge will flatten out with zonal flow
across the county... look for mild wx to continuing through the
weekend with sunny days and clear nights.

In years past have had snow on Thanksgiving day but not this year as
will have very good wx for anyone traveling across the region.  Had
a weak front move through the area yesterday so will start the day
with a light east wind over most of the area but will come around to
the south as a new leeside trough develops.  Highs today will be
near normal and in the 60s.  S/SW wind will be a little stronger on
Friday and may be gusty in the afternoon as pressure gradient
associated with a surface low over CO tightens.  This will result in
noticeably warmer temps on Friday as highs climb it into the 70s.
Saturday and Sunday will have 70s too.  On Monday a cold front blows
through the area bringing a brief return to cooler wx but by Tuesday
temperatures should return to near normal.

The forecast looks dry through next Wednesday.  Models have been
trying to develop some precip in the extended but the next upper
trough now looks to weaken and pass north of the area so not
expecting much.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 60  36  71  37  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              60  38  71  40  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                62  31  73  36  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  64  38  70  39  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           65  40  74  44  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          59  40  63  41  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   60  33  72  34  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   63  24  67  26  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    61  37  71  38  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  61  36  72  38  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    63  34  73  34  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/72

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609
FXUS64 KMAF 270448
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1048 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light east to southeast winds this TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Temperatures warming up nicely this afternoon despite a weak frontal
boundary stalled somewhere near the Pecos River. Generally have
light northerly winds across the Permian Basin and SE NM this
afternoon but winds will slowly veer to the east this evening as the
associated surface ridge sinks further south. Could get some pretty
good cooling with light winds and clear skies in place tonight so
expect overnight lows ranging from near 30 north to the mid and
upper 30s south.

Dry NW flow aloft will continue to weaken tonight, transitioning to
zonal flow which will dominate the upper pattern for the next
several days. Thanksgiving day, we`re looking at south winds under
clear skies with high temperatures in the 60s most places. By
Friday, a lee surface trough will extend southward through eastern
New Mexico, resulting in southwest downsloping winds developing
across the FA. Temperatures will warm considerably Friday through
the weekend and by Sunday, expect highs in the 70s areawide. A few
locations along the Rio Grande and Pecos River Valleys may even
approach 80. An upper trough, swinging through the northern
states over the weekend, will send a cold front south through the
region Monday. Areas across the Permian Basin will likely see a
brief period of breezy NE winds as the front moves through during
the morning hours. High temperatures will be closer to
climatological normals for the beginning of December. Otherwise,
expect dry conditions heading into the beginning of next week.

Early next week, an eastward moving ua disturbance was previously
thought to bring rain chances back to the region by mid week but
latest model data suggests otherwise... The 12Z GFS has come more in
line with the ECMWF (although the ECMWF is still much slower with
the system) in depicting a much weaker disturbance moving too far
north for us to see any precip. Will continue to monitor subsequent
model runs for any changes.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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181
FXUS64 KMAF 262326
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
526 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Light northeast winds shifting from the southeast over time. VFR
conditions will continue.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Temperatures warming up nicely this afternoon despite a weak frontal
boundary stalled somewhere near the Pecos River. Generally have
light northerly winds across the Permian Basin and SE NM this
afternoon but winds will slowly veer to the east this evening as the
associated surface ridge sinks further south. Could get some pretty
good cooling with light winds and clear skies in place tonight so
expect overnight lows ranging from near 30 north to the mid and
upper 30s south.

Dry NW flow aloft will continue to weaken tonight, transitioning to
zonal flow which will dominate the upper pattern for the next
several days. Thanksgiving day, we`re looking at south winds under
clear skies with high temperatures in the 60s most places. By
Friday, a lee surface trough will extend southward through eastern
New Mexico, resulting in southwest downsloping winds developing
across the FA. Temperatures will warm considerably Friday through
the weekend and by Sunday, expect highs in the 70s areawide. A few
locations along the Rio Grande and Pecos River Valleys may even
approach 80. An upper trough, swinging through the northern
states over the weekend, will send a cold front south through the
region Monday. Areas across the Permian Basin will likely see a
brief period of breezy NE winds as the front moves through during
the morning hours. High temperatures will be closer to
climatological normals for the beginning of December. Otherwise,
expect dry conditions heading into the beginning of next week.

Early next week, an eastward moving ua disturbance was previously
thought to bring rain chances back to the region by mid week but
latest model data suggests otherwise... The 12Z GFS has come more in
line with the ECMWF (although the ECMWF is still much slower with
the system) in depicting a much weaker disturbance moving too far
north for us to see any precip. Will continue to monitor subsequent
model runs for any changes.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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180
FXUS64 KMAF 262037
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
237 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Temperatures warming up nicely this afternoon despite a weak frontal
boundary stalled somewhere near the Pecos River. Generally have
light northerly winds across the Permian Basin and SE NM this
afternoon but winds will slowly veer to the east this evening as the
associated surface ridge sinks further south. Could get some pretty
good cooling with light winds and clear skies in place tonight so
expect overnight lows ranging from near 30 north to the mid and
upper 30s south.

Dry NW flow aloft will continue to weaken tonight, transitioning to
zonal flow which will dominate the upper pattern for the next
several days. Thanksgiving day, we`re looking at south winds under
clear skies with high temperatures in the 60s most places. By
Friday, a lee surface trough will extend southward through eastern
New Mexico, resulting in southwest downsloping winds developing
across the FA. Temperatures will warm considerably Friday through
the weekend and by Sunday, expect highs in the 70s areawide. A few
locations along the Rio Grande and Pecos River Valleys may even
approach 80. An upper trough, swinging through the northern
states over the weekend, will send a cold front south through the
region Monday. Areas across the Permian Basin will likely see a
brief period of breezy NE winds as the front moves through during
the morning hours. High temperatures will be closer to
climatological normals for the beginning of December. Otherwise,
expect dry conditions heading into the beginning of next week.

Early next week, an eastward moving ua disturbance was previously
thought to bring rain chances back to the region by mid week but
latest model data suggests otherwise... The 12Z GFS has come more in
line with the ECMWF (although the ECMWF is still much slower with
the system) in depicting a much weaker disturbance moving too far
north for us to see any precip. Will continue to monitor subsequent
model runs for any changes.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 32  61  36  72  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              34  62  39  72  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                31  63  32  74  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  38  63  38  69  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           36  66  40  75  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          37  58  40  66  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   31  62  33  73  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   25  61  26  67  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    32  62  36  72  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  32  62  36  73  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    33  64  34  74  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70/27

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197
FXUS64 KMAF 261748
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1148 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 26/18Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A weak cold front is progressing southward across west Texas and
southeastern New Mexico at press time, with the boundary now
located just north of the Pecos River. Behind the front, affecting
the KHOB and KMAF (and, soon, KINK) terminals, look for about
three to four hours of gusty north to northeast winds. At the KFST
and KPEQ terminals, look for westerly winds to veer around to the
north and become gusty for a few hours. KCNM will see a wind shift
to the north but the wind gusts (up to 25 kts) should not affect
them. Before sunset, winds will become light out of the northeast
and around midnight become light and variable. Mid morning
Thanksgiving will have winds returning to a southerly direction
generally around 10 kts. Otherwise expect CAVU conditions to
prevail through 18Z turkey day, and perhaps longer than that.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions with mostly clear skies will prevail through the
forecast period. A weak boundary pushing south through the region
will result in winds veering to the north and then east by this
afternoon, though wind speeds are expected to remain at or below
12KT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over CA will build in from the west the next
several days.  The ridge will flatten out by the weekend with near
zonal flow across the country.  This will result in an extended
period of mild wx for the region with sunny days and clear nights.
See no hazards for those traveling across W TX or SE NM the next
few days.

Will start off the morning a little warmer as overnight wind has
kept temps elevated.  A weak front moves through today will be
mainly a wind shift as a surface ridge builds south into the area.
The wind will come around to the north around noon then quickly
veer around to the east by sunset.  The development of a new
leeside trough Thursday will result in a return to a south wind
and slightly warmer temperatures.  By Friday even warmer
conditions expected as highs climb into the 70s and stay that way
through the weekend.  The next cold front blows through Monday
with a return to more seasonable temperatures.

In the extended there is a chance of precipitation moving into the
area with an upper trough next Wednesday.  Until then the forecast
will remain dry.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70

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103
FXUS64 KMAF 261127
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
527 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions with mostly clear skies will prevail through the
forecast period. A weak boundary pushing south through the region
will result in winds veering to the north and then east by this
afternoon, though wind speeds are expected to remain at or below
12KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over CA will build in from the west the next
several days.  The ridge will flatten out by the weekend with near
zonal flow across the country.  This will result in an extended
period of mild wx for the region with sunny days and clear nights.
See no hazards for those traveling across W TX or SE NM the next
few days.

Will start off the morning a little warmer as overnight wind has
kept temps elevated.  A weak front moves through today will be
mainly a wind shift as a surface ridge builds south into the area.
The wind will come around to the north around noon then quickly
veer around to the east by sunset.  The development of a new
leeside trough Thursday will result in a return to a south wind
and slightly warmer temperatures.  By Friday even warmer
conditions expected as highs climb into the 70s and stay that way
through the weekend.  The next cold front blows through Monday
with a return to more seasonable temperatures.

In the extended there is a chance of precipitation moving into the
area with an upper trough next Wednesday.  Until then the forecast
will remain dry.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/72

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002
FXUS64 KMAF 260945
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
345 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over CA will build in from the west the next
several days.  The ridge will flatten out by the weekend with near
zonal flow across the country.  This will result in an extended
period of mild wx for the region with sunny days and clear nights.
See no hazards for those traveling across W TX or SE NM the next
few days.

Will start off the morning a little warmer as overnight wind has
kept temps elevated.  A weak front moves through today will be
mainly a wind shift as a surface ridge builds south into the area.
The wind will come around to the north around noon then quickly
veer around to the east by sunset.  The development of a new
leeside trough Thursday will result in a return to a south wind
and slightly warmer temperatures.  By Friday even warmer
conditions expected as highs climb into the 70s and stay that way
through the weekend.  The next cold front blows through Monday
with a return to more seasonable temperatures.

In the extended there is a chance of precipitation moving into the
area with an upper trough next Wednesday.  Until then the forecast
will remain dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 62  31  63  35  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              62  34  63  38  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                64  31  65  32  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  69  38  65  38  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           66  37  67  40  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          58  37  59  40  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   62  31  63  33  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   63  23  63  25  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    62  31  63  36  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  63  31  63  37  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    66  33  66  34  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/72

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445
FXUS64 KMAF 260448
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1048 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussin below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Light west winds tonight will shift from the northeast and east
around 18Z as a weak front moves into the area. Mostly clear skies
will remain.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A few changes to the previous forecast but nothing too major, the
next 7 days look to remain relatively uneventful weather-wise across
southeast New Mexico and west Texas. This afternoon, temperatures
have generally warmed into 50s most locations with notable SW
winds gusting up to 25mph across northern zones. This is due to a
strengthening lee surface trough extending south through eastern
New Mexico. Elevated wind speeds continuing tonight will likely
keep overnight lows from tanking so bumped temps up a bit, closer
to warmer guidance.

Northwest flow aloft today will become nearly zonal Wednesday and
remain so through the weekend, keeping Arctic air bottled to the
north. A weak cold front will sink south into NE zones tomorrow
but a weak wind shift to the NE is all that is anticipated and
high temperatures will warm to the 60s most places. The warming
trend continues Thursday with the return of southerly winds at the
surface thanks to a developing lee surface trough. As this surface
trough extends southward Friday and Saturday, expect southwest
downsloping winds to push high temperatures near or above 70
through Sunday. Quick side note, a weak upper disturbance will
slowly move east over the southern half of the CWA Thursday and
Friday however the only affects seem to be a slower warming trend
for Big Bend areas. Otherwise, expect dry conditions to persist.

Beyond Sunday, ua flow looks to back slightly to the southwest in
response to the next upper trough entering the PacNW and digging
into the Rockies early in the week. This trough could be our next
shot at rain for mainly eastern portions of the region, where best
moisture will exist. Forecast models differ on the speed of the
upper trough and therefore the arrival of the associated upper
forcing for ascent. Will keep silent PoPs in the forecast for
day 8 (next Tuesday) and continue to monitor the evolution of this
scenario in subsequent model runs.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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860
FXUS64 KMAF 252312
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
512 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussin below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR and west to southwest winds through most of the TAF period
shifting from the northeast late as a cold front arrives.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A few changes to the previous forecast but nothing too major, the
next 7 days look to remain relatively uneventful weather-wise across
southeast New Mexico and west Texas. This afternoon, temperatures
have generally warmed into 50s most locations with notable SW
winds gusting up to 25mph across northern zones. This is due to a
strengthening lee surface trough extending south through eastern
New Mexico. Elevated wind speeds continuing tonight will likely
keep overnight lows from tanking so bumped temps up a bit, closer
to warmer guidance.

Northwest flow aloft today will become nearly zonal Wednesday and
remain so through the weekend, keeping Arctic air bottled to the
north. A weak cold front will sink south into NE zones tomorrow
but a weak wind shift to the NE is all that is anticipated and
high temperatures will warm to the 60s most places. The warming
trend continues Thursday with the return of southerly winds at the
surface thanks to a developing lee surface trough. As this surface
trough extends southward Friday and Saturday, expect southwest
downsloping winds to push high temperatures near or above 70
through Sunday. Quick side note, a weak upper disturbance will
slowly move east over the southern half of the CWA Thursday and
Friday however the only affects seem to be a slower warming trend
for Big Bend areas. Otherwise, expect dry conditions to persist.

Beyond Sunday, ua flow looks to back slightly to the southwest in
response to the next upper trough entering the PacNW and digging
into the Rockies early in the week. This trough could be our next
shot at rain for mainly eastern portions of the region, where best
moisture will exist. Forecast models differ on the speed of the
upper trough and therefore the arrival of the associated upper
forcing for ascent. Will keep silent PoPs in the forecast for
day 8 (next Tuesday) and continue to monitor the evolution of this
scenario in subsequent model runs.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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022
FXUS64 KMAF 252023
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
223 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A few changes to the previous forecast but nothing too major, the
next 7 days look to remain relatively uneventful weather-wise across
southeast New Mexico and west Texas. This afternoon, temperatures
have generally warmed into 50s most locations with notable SW
winds gusting up to 25mph across northern zones. This is due to a
strengthening lee surface trough extending south through eastern
New Mexico. Elevated wind speeds continuing tonight will likely
keep overnight lows from tanking so bumped temps up a bit, closer
to warmer guidance.

Northwest flow aloft today will become nearly zonal Wednesday and
remain so through the weekend, keeping Arctic air bottled to the
north. A weak cold front will sink south into NE zones tomorrow
but a weak wind shift to the NE is all that is anticipated and
high temperatures will warm to the 60s most places. The warming
trend continues Thursday with the return of southerly winds at the
surface thanks to a developing lee surface trough. As this surface
trough extends southward Friday and Saturday, expect southwest
downsloping winds to push high temperatures near or above 70
through Sunday. Quick side note, a weak upper disturbance will
slowly move east over the southern half of the CWA Thursday and
Friday however the only affects seem to be a slower warming trend
for Big Bend areas. Otherwise, expect dry conditions to persist.

Beyond Sunday, ua flow looks to back slightly to the southwest in
response to the next upper trough entering the PacNW and digging
into the Rockies early in the week. This trough could be our next
shot at rain for mainly eastern portions of the region, where best
moisture will exist. Forecast models differ on the speed of the
upper trough and therefore the arrival of the associated upper
forcing for ascent. Will keep silent PoPs in the forecast for
day 8 (next Tuesday) and continue to monitor the evolution of this
scenario in subsequent model runs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 33  62  34  65  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              35  63  37  66  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                31  63  31  65  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  34  69  39  66  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           37  68  38  68  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          33  58  37  60  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   30  61  32  63  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   22  62  24  63  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    34  64  35  65  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  35  64  36  65  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    31  66  32  67  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/27

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727
FXUS64 KMAF 251644
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1044 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in dry, westerly flow. A
cold front will seep into the NM terminals near the end of the
forecast period.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Will begin the day with an upper trough extending down the center
of the country with a ridge over the western U.S.  This ridge will
build east over the region as the trough moves off toward the Atlantic.
The result will be mild wx for W TX and SE NM through the week.

Surface analysis indicates a weak front is moving through the area
this morning... will not be much cooling with it but the wind will
come around to the north.  However by late afternoon a SW wind will
return as a leeside trough develops.  Afternoon highs should end up
little changed from those yesterday with readings in the 50s.  May
see another brief wind shift to the north Wednesday but highs will
warm into the 60s.  Temperatures climb through the end of the week
into the weekend as upper flow becomes nearly zonal. Look for highs
around 70.

Scattered mid level clouds over the center of the area this morning
will keep moving off to the southeast... skies should be mostly
clear today.  Actually not a lot of clouds expected next few days so
should see mostly sunny days and mostly clear nights.

Forecast looks dry for the rest of the week.  In the extended there
will be a chance of storms next Tuesday night as a strong upper
trough approaches the area from the west.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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985
FXUS64 KMAF 251128
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
528 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Dry, VFR conditions will prevail with mostly clear skies through
the forecast period. Northwesterly winds will back to the
southwest by early this evening, with sustained wind speeds
expected to remain below 15KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Will begin the day with an upper trough extending down the center
of the country with a ridge over the western U.S.  This ridge will
build east over the region as the trough moves off toward the Atlantic.
The result will be mild wx for W TX and SE NM through the week.

Surface analysis indicates a weak front is moving through the area
this morning... will not be much cooling with it but the wind will
come around to the north.  However by late afternoon a SW wind will
return as a leeside trough develops.  Afternoon highs should end up
little changed from those yesterday with readings in the 50s.  May
see another brief wind shift to the north Wednesday but highs will
warm into the 60s.  Temperatures climb through the end of the week
into the weekend as upper flow becomes nearly zonal. Look for highs
around 70.

Scattered mid level clouds over the center of the area this morning
will keep moving off to the southeast... skies should be mostly
clear today.  Actually not a lot of clouds expected next few days so
should see mostly sunny days and mostly clear nights.

Forecast looks dry for the rest of the week.  In the extended there
will be a chance of storms next Tuesday night as a strong upper
trough approaches the area from the west.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/72

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395
FXUS64 KMAF 250957
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
357 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Will begin the day with an upper trough extending down the center
of the country with a ridge over the western U.S.  This ridge will
build east over the region as the trough moves off toward the Atlantic.
The result will be mild wx for W TX and SE NM through the week.

Surface analysis indicates a weak front is moving through the area
this morning... will not be much cooling with it but the wind will
come around to the north.  However by late afternoon a SW wind will
return as a leeside trough develops.  Afternoon highs should end up
little changed from those yesterday with readings in the 50s.  May
see another brief wind shift to the north Wednesday but highs will
warm into the 60s.  Temperatures climb through the end of the week
into the weekend as upper flow becomes nearly zonal. Look for highs
around 70.

Scattered mid level clouds over the center of the area this morning
will keep moving off to the southeast... skies should be mostly
clear today.  Actually not a lot of clouds expected next few days so
should see mostly sunny days and mostly clear nights.

Forecast looks dry for the rest of the week.  In the extended there
will be a chance of storms next Tuesday night as a strong upper
trough approaches the area from the west.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 55  32  60  31  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              57  34  60  34  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                56  31  62  31  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  62  34  68  37  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           57  37  67  36  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          47  33  57  34  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   55  31  59  31  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   52  19  60  22  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    56  33  61  32  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  57  35  60  33  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    57  31  65  30  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/72

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581
FXUS64 KMAF 250434
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1034 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A cold front will continue to ease south through the area
overnight with north/northwest winds under 15kt sustained behind
it.  Due to ambient dry conditions, VFR conditions will prevail.
Winds will quickly veer around to the southwest Tuesday afternoon,
but generally stay below 15kt sustained.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2014/

A relatively benign weather pattern is in store for West Texas
and Southeast New Mexico this week, characterized generally by
above-normal temps and little to no precipitation.

Current WV imagery shows a broad trough over the central CONUS,
w/minor shortwaves digging SE thru this feature.  The first is due
thru tonight, pushing a weak cold front into the area, keeping temps
below normal Tuesday.  Models of late have carried a narrower
diurnal spread on temps than reality, and forecast soundings and H85
temp fields suggest guidance may be trying to warm things back up
too fast in the short term under NW flow aloft.  Even so, temps
should return to AOA normal by Wednesday afternoon, despite a
secondary weak front advertised for Wednesday afternoon.  NW flow
aloft then slowly begins transitioning to zonal into the weekend as
a broad, flat upper ridge builds in from the west.  Models develop a
stationary upper trough over Mexico into the weekend, but this will
have little effect on things here other than keeping temps down a
notch from where they otherwise would have been.  Temps peak
Saturday, then begin dropping as the upper ridge moves east in
response to a trough making landfall on the west coast. Models
attempt to bring in a third cold front Sunday night, but this looks
weak and stalls out mid-CWA, not even bringing temps back to normal
Monday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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741
FXUS64 KMAF 242304
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
504 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds will increase somewhat overnight as a cold front moves into
the area.  There may be a few gusts of 20 to 25kt behind the
front, but these will not last long.  VFR conditions will prevail
throughout the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2014/

A relatively benign weather pattern is in store for West Texas
and Southeast New Mexico this week, characterized generally by
above-normal temps and little to no precipitation.

Current WV imagery shows a broad trough over the central CONUS,
w/minor shortwaves digging SE thru this feature.  The first is due
thru tonight, pushing a weak cold front into the area, keeping temps
below normal Tuesday.  Models of late have carried a narrower
diurnal spread on temps than reality, and forecast soundings and H85
temp fields suggest guidance may be trying to warm things back up
too fast in the short term under NW flow aloft.  Even so, temps
should return to AOA normal by Wednesday afternoon, despite a
secondary weak front advertised for Wednesday afternoon.  NW flow
aloft then slowly begins transitioning to zonal into the weekend as
a broad, flat upper ridge builds in from the west.  Models develop a
stationary upper trough over Mexico into the weekend, but this will
have little effect on things here other than keeping temps down a
notch from where they otherwise would have been.  Temps peak
Saturday, then begin dropping as the upper ridge moves east in
response to a trough making landfall on the west coast. Models
attempt to bring in a third cold front Sunday night, but this looks
weak and stalls out mid-CWA, not even bringing temps back to normal
Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 32  57  34  64  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              34  59  34  64  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                32  57  33  62  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  34  64  32  69  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           34  57  35  66  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          29  49  33  56  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   29  54  31  62  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   22  52  22  61  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    31  59  31  65  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  31  59  35  64  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    31  59  31  66  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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012
FXUS64 KMAF 242045
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
245 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A relatively benign weather pattern is in store for West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico this week, characterized generally by
above-normal temps and little to no precipitation.

Current WV imagery shows a broad trough over the central CONUS,
w/minor shortwaves digging SE thru this feature.  The first is due
thru tonight, pushing a weak cold front into the area, keeping temps
below normal Tuesday.  Models of late have carried a narrower
diurnal spread on temps than reality, and forecast soundings and H85
temp fields suggest guidance may be trying to warm things back up
too fast in the short term under NW flow aloft.  Even so, temps
should return to AOA normal by Wednesday afternoon, despite a
secondary weak front advertised for Wednesday afternoon.  NW flow
aloft then slowly begins transitioning to zonal into the weekend as
a broad, flat upper ridge builds in from the west.  Models develop a
stationary upper trough over Mexico into the weekend, but this will
have little effect on things here other than keeping temps down a
notch from where they otherwise would have been.  Temps peak
Saturday, then begin dropping as the upper ridge moves east in
response to a trough making landfall on the west coast. Models
attempt to bring in a third cold front Sunday night, but this looks
weak and stalls out mid-CWA, not even bringing temps back to normal
Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 32  57  34  64  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              34  59  34  64  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                32  57  33  62  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  34  64  32  69  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           34  57  35  66  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          29  49  33  56  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   29  54  31  62  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   22  52  22  61  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    31  59  31  65  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  31  59  35  64  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    31  59  31  66  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29/44

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348
FXUS64 KMAF 241711
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1111 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Gusty
northwesterly winds will subside this evening before another cold
front arrives tonight. This front will shift winds around to the
north at about 10-15 kts.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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556
FXUS64 KMAF 241110
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
510 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions with mostly clear skies are expected the next 24
hours. Winds will generally be west to northwest at 10 knots or
less. A cold front is expected toward Tuesday morning which should
shift the wind the north and northwest and bring in an increase in
mid clouds.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Winds have finally subsided across the area this morning as a belt
of stronger mid level winds has moved off to the east. A weak
upper trough will move out of New Mexico and across west Texas
today doing little other than briefly shift winds from the north
and bring a weak reinforcement of cooler air.

The trend the remainder of the week will be towards a more zonal
flow providing a steady warming trend into the weekend. Saturday
will likely be the warmest day across the area ahead of a cold
front expected sometime on Sunday. The biggest uncertainty
regarding this front will be that the supporting upper trough will
remain well north of the surface front moving along the
U.S./Canadian border. This is reflected in the ECMWF being slower
than the GFS and it is possible this front doesn`t arrive at all,
becoming stationary in the Texas Panhandle. For now will only show
a modest cooling for Sunday until confidence increases in the
behavior of this front.

Hennig

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 56  31  55  35  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              57  31  56  36  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                60  30  59  33  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  63  34  61  35  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           59  31  58  37  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          45  28  44  34  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   56  28  56  33  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   48  23  47  27  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    56  30  56  34  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  56  31  56  35  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    59  31  59  32  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/10

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019
FXUS64 KMAF 240929
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
329 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Winds have finally subsided across the area this morning as a belt
of stronger mid level winds has moved off to the east. A weak
upper trough will move out of New Mexico and across west Texas
today doing little other than briefly shift winds from the north
and bring a weak reinforcement of cooler air.

The trend the remainder of the week will be towards a more zonal
flow providing a steady warming trend into the weekend. Saturday
will likely be the warmest day across the area ahead of a cold
front expected sometime on Sunday. The biggest uncertainty
regarding this front will be that the supporting upper trough will
remain well north of the surface front moving along the
U.S./Canadian border. This is reflected in the ECMWF being slower
than the GFS and it is possible this front doesn`t arrive at all,
becoming stationary in the Texas Panhandle. For now will only show
a modest cooling for Sunday until confidence increases in the
behavior of this front.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 56  31  55  35  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              57  31  56  36  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                60  30  59  33  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  63  34  61  35  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           59  31  58  37  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          45  28  44  34  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   56  28  56  33  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   48  23  47  27  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    56  30  56  34  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  56  31  56  35  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    59  31  59  32  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/10

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974
FXUS64 KMAF 240446
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1038 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds will generally be light out of the west to northwest for the
next 24 hours.  There is a very slight chance that there could be
low ceilings and visibilities briefly around 12z but the probability
is too low to put in the TAFS.  Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014/

UPDATE...

Update to cancel the rest of the high Wind Warning for the Guadalupe
and Davis Mountains, and to allow the Wind Advisory to expire.

DISCUSSION...

Westerly winds were beginning to subside as late afternoon
temperatures cooled, and a cold front moves into the area with
lesser northerly winds behind it.  Winds were also decreasing in the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains as of 23/2330Z, although speeds were
still around 40 mph sustained with gusts around 55 mph.  Speeds
should trend down more in the mountains too within the next hour as
decoupling commences.  Will go ahead and allow the Wind Advisory to
expire at 24/00Z, but will also cancel the rest of the High Wind
Warning for the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains due to the expected
downtrend in wind speeds there.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:45 PM CST Sunday...Sunny and breezy/windy
conditions continue across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico this
afternoon. Temperatures are quite mild...mainly in the 60s and 70s
across the Plains with 50s in the mountains. A dry cold front is
moving south out of the Panhandle.

Strong winds will continue thru the aftn in the Plains...therefore
have left the Wind Advisory as is. The High Wind Warnings for the
mountain locations will continue thru the evening hours...however
not very confident with this as the models decrease the winds thru
the evening hours as the sfc gradient relaxes.

A couple of dry cold fronts will keep temps below normal for the
beginning of the work week. Flat ridging...along with lee side sfc
troughing along the Front Range will bring low level southwest
downslope flow to the area starting on Wednesday. Temps will
warm to near normal Wednesday...with above normal temps from
Thanksgiving right thru next weekend. With this pattern no
precipitation is expected for the next week...at least.

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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052
FXUS64 KMAF 240005
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
605 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.UPDATE...

Update to cancel the rest of the high Wind Warning for the Guadalupe
and Davis Mountains, and to allow the Wind Advisory to expire.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Westerly winds were beginning to subside as late afternoon
temperatures cooled, and a cold front moves into the area with
lesser northerly winds behind it.  Winds were also decreasing in the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains as of 23/2330Z, although speeds were
still around 40 mph sustained with gusts around 55 mph.  Speeds
should trend down more in the mountains too within the next hour as
decoupling commences.  Will go ahead and allow the Wind Advisory to
expire at 24/00Z, but will also cancel the rest of the High Wind
Warning for the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains due to the expected
downtrend in wind speeds there.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Very gusty west to northwest winds will shift towards the north as a
cold front comes into the area.  Wind speeds will decrease over the
next few hours as this wind shift takes place but winds will still
remain elevated with some gusts.  Light north to northwest winds are
expected by 06z.  Winds will remain light but become more westerly
by 12z.  There is a slight chance of reduced visibilities and
ceilings briefly around 12z for HOB and MAF.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:45 PM CST Sunday...Sunny and breezy/windy
conditions continue across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico this
afternoon. Temperatures are quite mild...mainly in the 60s and 70s
across the Plains with 50s in the mountains. A dry cold front is
moving south out of the Panhandle.

Strong winds will continue thru the aftn in the Plains...therefore
have left the Wind Advisory as is. The High Wind Warnings for the
mountain locations will continue thru the evening hours...however
not very confident with this as the models decrease the winds thru
the evening hours as the sfc gradient relaxes.

A couple of dry cold fronts will keep temps below normal for the
beginning of the work week. Flat ridging...along with lee side sfc
troughing along the Front Range will bring low level southwest
downslope flow to the area starting on Wednesday. Temps will
warm to near normal Wednesday...with above normal temps from
Thanksgiving right thru next weekend. With this pattern no
precipitation is expected for the next week...at least.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 32  56  31  53  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              35  60  33  57  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                28  58  29  53  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  39  66  38  60  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           35  61  34  55  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          31  51  27  46  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   29  53  28  52  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   22  53  23  50  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    30  59  33  54  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  32  59  33  53  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    33  59  31  54  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99/99

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549
FXUS64 KMAF 232334
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
528 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Very gusty west to northwest winds will shift towards the north as a
cold front comes into the area.  Wind speeds will decrease over the
next few hours as this wind shift takes place but winds will still
remain elevated with some gusts.  Light north to northwest winds are
expected by 06z.  Winds will remain light but become more westerly
by 12z.  There is a slight chance of reduced visibilities and
ceilings briefly around 12z for HOB and MAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:45 PM CST Sunday...Sunny and breezy/windy
conditions continue across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico this
afternoon. Temperatures are quite mild...mainly in the 60s and 70s
across the Plains with 50s in the mountains. A dry cold front is
moving south out of the Panhandle.

Strong winds will continue thru the aftn in the Plains...therefore
have left the Wind Advisory as is. The High Wind Warnings for the
mountain locations will continue thru the evening hours...however
not very confident with this as the models decrease the winds thru
the evening hours as the sfc gradient relaxes.

A couple of dry cold fronts will keep temps below normal for the
beginning of the work week. Flat ridging...along with lee side sfc
troughing along the Front Range will bring low level southwest
downslope flow to the area starting on Wednesday. Temps will
warm to near normal Wednesday...with above normal temps from
Thanksgiving right thru next weekend. With this pattern no
precipitation is expected for the next week...at least.

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WIND ADVISORY until 5 PM MST this afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Northern
     Lea County...Southern Lea County.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 11 PM MST this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...WIND ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...Loving...Marfa Plateau...
     Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...Upton...
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Guadalupe
     Mountains.


&&

$$

99

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516
FXUS64 KMAF 232047
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
247 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...As of 2:45 PM CST Sunday...Sunny and breezy/windy
conditions continue across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico this
afternoon. Temperatures are quite mild...mainly in the 60s and 70s
across the Plains with 50s in the mountains. A dry cold front is
moving south out of the Panhandle.

Strong winds will continue thru the aftn in the Plains...therefore
have left the Wind Advisory as is. The High Wind Warnings for the
mountain locations will continue thru the evening hours...however
not very confident with this as the models decrease the winds thru
the evening hours as the sfc gradient relaxes.

A couple of dry cold fronts will keep temps below normal for the
beginning of the work week. Flat ridging...along with lee side sfc
troughing along the Front Range will bring low level southwest
downslope flow to the area starting on Wednesday. Temps will
warm to near normal Wednesday...with above normal temps from
Thanksgiving right thru next weekend. With this pattern no
precipitation is expected for the next week...at least.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 32  56  31  53  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              35  60  33  57  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                28  58  29  53  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  39  66  38  60  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           35  61  34  55  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          31  51  27  46  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   29  53  28  52  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   22  53  23  50  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    30  59  33  54  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  32  59  33  53  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    33  59  31  54  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WIND ADVISORY until 5 PM MST this afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Northern
     Lea County...Southern Lea County.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 11 PM MST this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...WIND ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...Loving...Marfa Plateau...
     Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...Upton...
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Guadalupe
     Mountains.


&&

$$

27/33

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860
FXUS64 KMAF 231718
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1118 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is strong west winds
expected through this afternoon. Currently have west winds ranging
from 15-33kt sustained and gusts up to 30-40kt affecting terminals
this morning. Peak winds are expected between 23/18Z and 24/00Z with
gusts near 35-40kt areawide. Wind speeds will be strongest near the
mountain regions where speeds up to 55G75kt will be possible. Could
also see some patchy areas of BLDU this afternoon but kept mention
out of TAF for now. Winds will decrease significantly after 24/00Z
and generally remain light overnight. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
persist at all terminals through Monday morning.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The upper level storm system that brought the rain to the area
yesterday has moved into east Texas early today. Behind this
system a large and broad upper level trough covered much of the
United States. A strong pressure and height gradient is forecast
to be over the area today on the south side of the trough and this
will result in very windy conditions in the plains and high winds
in the Guadalupe Mountains and the Davis Mountains above 6000
feet. A High Wind Warning is in effect through this evening for
the aforementioned mountains. A Wind Advisory is in effect from
late this morning through this afternoon for much of the remainder
of west Texas and southeast New Mexico plains. Decent sunshine along
with strong downslope winds will allow temperatures to rise again
to above normal values this afternoon despite yesterdays frontal
passage. Winds will diminish rapidly early this evening in the
plains due to nocturnal cooling but winds will remain elevated in
the higher elevations of the mountains through this evening before
diminishing later tonight as the height gradient eases.

A couple of dry cold fronts will move through the region tonight
and tomorrow night as the upper trough pushes southeast. This
will result in several degree cooling for Monday and Tuesday
high temperatures under mostly clear skies.

Mainly zonal flow aloft expected Wednesday through next weekend.
High temperatures should rise to at or above normal values
at least Wednesday and possibly Thursday due to surface lee trough
formation in this flow. Beyond Thursday will keep the warm pattern
going for now but the potential exists for colder air to drop down
down from Canada into the plains. Later shifts will need to
monitor.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WIND ADVISORY until 5 PM MST this afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Northern
     Lea County...Southern Lea County.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 11 PM MST this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...WIND ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...Loving...Marfa Plateau...
     Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...Upton...
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Guadalupe
     Mountains.


&&

$$

27

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462
FXUS64 KMAF 231111
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
511 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
It will become very windy today after 18Z with gusts to 35 to 45
knots across much of the area. Recent rains should keep blowing
dust to a minimum but there may be localized or brief areas of
MVFR conditions due to BLDU. Conditions will improve after 00Z as
a weak front arrives.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The upper level storm system that brought the rain to the area
yesterday has moved into east Texas early today. Behind this
system a large and broad upper level trough covered much of the
United States. A strong pressure and height gradient is forecast
to be over the area today on the south side of the trough and this
will result in very windy conditions in the plains and high winds
in the Guadalupe Mountains and the Davis Mountains above 6000
feet. A High Wind Warning is in effect through this evening for
the aforementioned mountains. A Wind Advisory is in effect from
late this morning through this afternoon for much of the remainder
of west Texas and southeast New Mexico plains. Decent sunshine along
with strong downslope winds will allow temperatures to rise again
to above normal values this afternoon despite yesterdays frontal
passage. Winds will diminish rapidly early this evening in the
plains due to nocturnal cooling but winds will remain elevated in
the higher elevations of the mountains through this evening before
diminishing later tonight as the height gradient eases.

A couple of dry cold fronts will move through the region tonight
and tomorrow night as the upper trough pushes southeast. This
will result in several degree cooling for Monday and Tuesday
high temperatures under mostly clear skies.

Mainly zonal flow aloft expected Wednesday through next weekend.
High temperatures should rise to at or above normal values
at least Wednesday and possibly Thursday due to surface lee trough
formation in this flow. Beyond Thursday will keep the warm pattern
going for now but the potential exists for colder air to drop down
down from Canada into the plains. Later shifts will need to
monitor.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this afternoon
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 11 PM MST this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...WIND ADVISORY from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...
     Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...Loving...
     Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...
     Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...
     Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Guadalupe
     Mountains.


&&

$$

10

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401
FXUS64 KMAF 231023
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
423 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
The upper level storm system that brought the rain to the area
yesterday has moved into east Texas early today. Behind this
system a large and broad upper level trough covered much of the
United States. A strong pressure and height gradient is forecast
to be over the area today on the south side of the trough and this
will result in very windy conditions in the plains and high winds
in the Guadalupe Mountains and the Davis Mountains above 6000
feet. A High Wind Warning is in effect through this evening for
the aforementioned mountains. A Wind Advisory is in effect from
late this morning through this afternoon for much of the remainder
of west Texas and southeast New Mexico plains. Decent sunshine along
with strong downslope winds will allow temperatures to rise again
to above normal values this afternoon despite yesterdays frontal
passage. Winds will diminish rapidly early this evening in the
plains due to nocturnal cooling but winds will remain elevated in
the higher elevations of the mountains through this evening before
diminishing later tonight as the height gradient eases.

A couple of dry cold fronts will move through the region tonight
and tomorrow night as the upper trough pushes southeast. This
will result in several degree cooling for Monday and Tuesday
high temperatures under mostly clear skies.

Mainly zonal flow aloft expected Wednesday through next weekend.
High temperatures should rise to at or above normal values
at least Wednesday and possibly Thursday due to surface lee trough
formation in this flow. Beyond Thursday will keep the warm pattern
going for now but the potential exists for colder air to drop down
down from Canada into the plains. Later shifts will need to
monitor.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 69  32  57  30  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              71  37  60  32  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                72  33  59  30  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  77  42  66  38  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           73  36  61  34  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          60  32  51  27  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   67  31  54  28  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   66  25  54  24  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    70  31  59  31  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  67  33  59  32  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    73  34  61  30  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this afternoon
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 11 PM MST this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...WIND ADVISORY from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...
     Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...Loving...
     Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...
     Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...
     Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Guadalupe
     Mountains.


&&

$$

10/12

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226
FXUS64 KMAF 230431
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1011 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Generally expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours.  Winds will
be out of the southwest to west overnight and will become elevated
by 12z.  Winds will continue to increase in strength throughout
the morning with gusts developing.  By 21z, winds will have begun to
shift more towards the northwest and will be nearing 25-30 mph
sustained with higher gusts.  After 00z, winds will weaken and turn
more northerly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 857 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014/

UPDATE...

Update to add fog to the forecast over portions of the Permian
Basin and western Low Rolling Plains through midnight CST.

DISCUSSION...

Low level moisture has surged westward into the Permian Basin and
western Low Rolling Plains.  This increase in moisture over rain
soaked ground has resulted in the formation of fog, some dense,
which continues to expand slowly westward.  However, surface winds
will veer to the southwest and west through midnight in these areas
and advect drier air into the region.  Therefore, expect fog to
dissipate from west to east with Scurry, Mitchell and Glasscock
counties clearing out midnight, or perhaps 1 am CST at the latest.
Will send an update to add to the forecast for the next few hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A series of equipment failures during this morning`s thunderstorm
activity (and the needed 0.20" of rain) set things back some, but
this is what we know now. The cold core of the upper low sits just
about overhead. With the exit of the strong lower latitude system and
merger over the Midwestern States, strong cyclogenesis will occur,
and that will entail strong northwesterly winds across much of the
Permian Basin, the upper trans Pecos, and the southeastern New
Mexican plains Sunday. We`ve left the high wind watch up for the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains areas for now. We`ve also left the
decision to fire up high wind warnings across the plains as well
depending on the strength of the surface pressure gradient. These
winds will subside Sunday night.

After this round of weather...nothing but sunny skies and above
normal temperatures through at least Black Friday. Chances for
precip are about nil and winds will remain out of the west to
northwest. In fact, high temp forecasts for Thanksgiving Day may be
warmer than forecast, if the new incoming data is close to being
correct. A beautiful week, certainly something to be thankful for.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WATCH from 5 AM MST Sunday through Sunday evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WATCH from 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Sunday through Sunday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

99

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212
FXUS64 KMAF 230257
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
857 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.UPDATE...

Update to add fog to the forecast over portions of the Permian
Basin and western Low Rolling Plains through midnight CST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Low level moisture has surged westward into the Permian Basin and
western Low Rolling Plains.  This increase in moisture over rain
soaked ground has resulted in the formation of fog, some dense,
which continues to expand slowly westward.  However, surface winds
will veer to the southwest and west through midnight in these areas
and advect drier air into the region.  Therefore, expect fog to
dissipate from west to east with Scurry, Mitchell and Glasscock
counties clearing out midnight, or perhaps 1 am CST at the latest.
Will send an update to add to the forecast for the next few hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  Winds will start
off fairly light out of the southwest to west before becoming
elevated out of the west by 12z.  Winds will pick up even more in
intensity and become gusty later in the morning.  Winds will peak in
intensity between 18z to 21z and will be out of the northwest before
weakening by 00z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A series of equipment failures during this morning`s thunderstorm
activity (and the needed 0.20" of rain) set things back some, but
this is what we know now. The cold core of the upper low sits just
about overhead. With the exit of the strong lower latitude system and
merger over the Midwestern States, strong cyclogenesis will occur,
and that will entail strong northwesterly winds across much of the
Permian Basin, the upper trans Pecos, and the southeastern New
Mexican plains Sunday. We`ve left the high wind watch up for the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains areas for now. We`ve also left the
decision to fire up high wind warnings across the plains as well
depending on the strength of the surface pressure gradient. These
winds will subside Sunday night.

After this round of weather...nothing but sunny skies and above
normal temperatures through at least Black Friday. Chances for
precip are about nil and winds will remain out of the west to
northwest. In fact, high temp forecasts for Thanksgiving Day may be
warmer than forecast, if the new incoming data is close to being
correct. A beautiful week, certainly something to be thankful for.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 44  69  32  55  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              44  71  37  56  /  10   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                44  72  33  59  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  47  77  42  66  /  10   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           50  73  36  55  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          40  60  32  51  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   42  67  31  54  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   32  66  25  52  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    43  70  31  57  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  46  67  33  57  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    42  73  34  59  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WATCH from 5 AM MST Sunday through Sunday evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WATCH from 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Sunday through Sunday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

99/99

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145
FXUS64 KMAF 222335
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
528 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  Winds will start
off fairly light out of the southwest to west before becoming
elevated out of the west by 12z.  Winds will pick up even more in
intensity and become gusty later in the morning.  Winds will peak in
intensity between 18z to 21z and will be out of the northwest before
weakening by 00z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A series of equipment failures during this morning`s thunderstorm
activity (and the needed 0.20" of rain) set things back some, but
this is what we know now. The cold core of the upper low sits just
about overhead. With the exit of the strong lower latitude system and
merger over the Midwestern States, strong cyclogenesis will occur,
and that will entail strong northwesterly winds across much of the
Permian Basin, the upper trans Pecos, and the southeastern New
Mexican plains Sunday. We`ve left the high wind watch up for the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains areas for now. We`ve also left the
decision to fire up high wind warnings across the plains as well
depending on the strength of the surface pressure gradient. These
winds will subside Sunday night.

After this round of weather...nothing but sunny skies and above
normal temperatures through at least Black Friday. Chances for
precip are about nil and winds will remain out of the west to
northwest. In fact, high temp forecasts for Thanksgiving Day may be
warmer than forecast, if the new incoming data is close to being
correct. A beautiful week, certainly something to be thankful for.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Sunday evening FOR
THE      FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WATCH from Sunday morning through Sunday evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

99

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604
FXUS64 KMAF 222129
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
329 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A series of equipment failures during this morning`s thunderstorm activity
(and the needed 0.20" of rain) set things back some, but this is
what we know now. The cold core of the upper low sits just about
overhead. With the exit of the strong lower latitude system and
merger over the Midwestern States, strong cyclogenesis will occur,
and that will entail strong northwesterly winds across much of the
Permian Basin, the upper trans Pecos, and the southeastern New
Mexican plains Sunday. We`ve left the high wind watch up for the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains areas for now. We`ve also left the
decision to fire up high wind warnings across the plains as well
depending on the strength of the surface pressure gradient. These
winds will subside Sunday night.

After this round of weather...nothing but sunny skies and above normal
temperatures through at least Black Friday. Chances for precip are about
nil and winds will remain out of the west to northwest. In fact, high
temp forecasts for Thanksgiving Day may be warmer than forecast,
if the new incoming data is close to being correct. A beautiful
week, certainly something to be thankful for.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 44  69  32  55  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              44  71  37  56  /  10   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                44  72  33  59  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  47  77  42  66  /  10   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           50  73  36  55  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          40  60  32  51  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   42  67  31  54  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   32  66  25  52  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    43  70  31  57  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  46  67  33  57  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    42  73  34  59  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Sunday evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WATCH from Sunday morning through Sunday evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

27/70

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587
FXUS64 KMAF 221738
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1138 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014


.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected to prevail at all TAF sites. Thunderstorm activity to
the east of terminals this morning will continue to move east away
from aviation sites. Variable winds across the board this morning
will become more established from the west this afternoon and
increase significantly by Sunday morning. Only have sustained
speeds forecasted at 15kt with gusts up to 25kt, however speeds
look to increase further just beyond this forecast cycle.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A potent southern stream upper level low pressure area across
northwest Mexico will be the main feature of interest today.
This system will approach the Big Bend by this evening allowing
an anomalous late season low level moisture surge northwestward
from the western Gulf of Mexico. Strong forcing and impressive
upper divergence associated with the upper system should act on a
unstable atmosphere and allow thunderstorms to develop along an
advancing cold front. The best chance of thunderstorms (good
chance to likely) will be across the eastern Permian Basin this
morning. This area is expected to be in the deepest moisture for
the longest period of time ahead of the upper system. Some of
these storms could be on the strong side in the eastern Permian
Basin, producing hail and gusty winds given elevated capes of
over 1000 j/kg, very steep mid level lapse rates, cold air aloft
and strong shear expected. Precipitation chances will decrease
this afternoon as the system pushes east toward west central
Texas.

Dry and swift northwesterly flow aloft is expected behind this
system Sunday through next Thursday with generally at or below
normal temperatures expected next Monday through Thursday.
Northwest 700 millibar flow of 50 knots is forecast in the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains on Sunday and combined with a
tight surface pressure gradient could produce strong winds.
A high wind watch has been issued for the Guadalupe Mountains
and the Davis Mountains above 6000 feet Sunday through mid
Sunday evening.

Below normal temperatures may return to the forecast area
next weekend.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Sunday evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WATCH from Sunday morning through Sunday evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

27

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599
FXUS64 KMAF 221124
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
524 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIG/VIS has been patchy this morning. Conditions may bounce
up and down for the first few hours of the TAF before remaining
VFR from around 16Z onward. Scattered showers are developing and a
few lightning strikes are possible, but the chances for TS on
station at any TAF site are too low to mention at this time.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A potent southern stream upper level low pressure area across
northwest Mexico will be the main feature of interest today.
This system will approach the Big Bend by this evening allowing
an anomalous late season low level moisture surge northwestward
from the western Gulf of Mexico. Strong forcing and impressive
upper divergence associated with the upper system should act on a
unstable atmosphere and allow thunderstorms to develop along an
advancing cold front. The best chance of thunderstorms (good
chance to likely) will be across the eastern Permian Basin this
morning. This area is expected to be in the deepest moisture for
the longest period of time ahead of the upper system. Some of
these storms could be on the strong side in the eastern Permian
Basin, producing hail and gusty winds given elevated capes of
over 1000 j/kg, very steep mid level lapse rates, cold air aloft
and strong shear expected. Precipitation chances will decrease
this afternoon as the system pushes east toward west central
Texas.

Dry and swift northwesterly flow aloft is expected behind this
system Sunday through next Thursday with generally at or below
normal temperatures expected next Monday through Thursday.
Northwest 700 millibar flow of 50 knots is forecast in the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains on Sunday and combined with a
tight surface pressure gradient could produce strong winds.
A high wind watch has been issued for the Guadalupe Mountains
and the Davis Mountains above 6000 feet Sunday through mid
Sunday evening.

Below normal temperatures may return to the forecast area
next weekend.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Sunday evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WATCH from Sunday morning through Sunday evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

10

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433
FXUS64 KMAF 221010
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
410 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A potent southern stream upper level low pressure area across
northwest Mexico will be the main feature of interest today.
This system will approach the Big Bend by this evening allowing
an anomalous late season low level moisture surge northwestward
from the western Gulf of Mexico. Strong forcing and impressive
upper divergence associated with the upper system should act on a
unstable atmosphere and allow thunderstorms to develop along an
advancing cold front. The best chance of thunderstorms (good
chance to likely) will be across the eastern Permian Basin this
morning. This area is expected to be in the deepest moisture for
the longest period of time ahead of the upper system. Some of
these storms could be on the strong side in the eastern Permian
Basin, producing hail and gusty winds given elevated capes of
over 1000 j/kg, very steep mid level lapse rates, cold air aloft
and strong shear expected. Precipitation chances will decrease
this afternoon as the system pushes east toward west central
Texas.

Dry and swift northwesterly flow aloft is expected behind this
system Sunday through next Thursday with generally at or below
normal temperatures expected next Monday through Thursday.
Northwest 700 millibar flow of 50 knots is forecast in the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains on Sunday and combined with a
tight surface pressure gradient could produce strong winds.
A high wind watch has been issued for the Guadalupe Mountains
and the Davis Mountains above 6000 feet Sunday through mid
Sunday evening.

Below normal temperatures may return to the forecast area
next weekend.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 65  44  69  32  /  30   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              67  46  71  37  /  60  10   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                69  44  72  32  /  20   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  68  48  77  42  /  40  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           68  50  73  36  /  20   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          62  41  60  32  /  20   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   67  41  67  30  /  20   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   66  32  66  25  /  20   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    67  45  70  31  /  40   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  68  46  67  33  /  30   0   0   0
WINK TX                    70  42  73  34  /  20   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Sunday evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WATCH from Sunday morning through Sunday evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

10/12

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084
FXUS64 KMAF 220442
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1035 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See the 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Southeast winds will become light and variable overnight through
Saturday morning.  Low ceilings are already starting to come into
the area and will continue moving in through 09z.  Fog is possible
from about 09z to 15z.  The low ceilings should move out of the area
around 18z Saturday.  Showers and thunderstorms will be possible for
mainly MAF, FST, INK, and HOB through 00z Sunday with MAF having the
highest chances.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Warm advection will continue across the region tonight, yielding
mild overnight temperatures in the 40s and 50s area-wide, with mid
to upper 30s on the Marfa Plateau. Boundary layer moisture will also
continue to increase tonight, and given the dense fog that some
locations experienced this morning, would not be surprised to see
fog/low cloud redevelopment late this evening and overnight,
particularly for areas near and north of the Pecos River. While
dense fog is possible, it is not currently mentioned in the
forecast, and will need monitored by later shifts if an advisory
ends up being warranted.

A potent upper level system currently located over southwest Arizona
per latest water vapor imagery continues its trek east-southeastward
toward the area, and will dominate sensible weather for the next
24-36 hours. Models are in very good agreement regarding the track
of this system, with the trough continuing to dig as the trough
passes just south of the Big Bend by 18Z Saturday, before lifting
northeast and developing a negative tilt as it moves toward the
Lower Mississippi Valley.  Modest 500mb height falls will overspread
the region this evening ahead of the approaching trough, and given
support from a 300mb jet rounding the base of the trough, ascent
will increase across the area, particularly over the Trans Pecos and
Permian Basin. Ample low level convergence along and ahead of an
eastward-moving cold front will further increase forcing, and in the
presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and elevated instability on
the order of 1000 J/kg, thunderstorms are expected to develop
tonight through early Saturday. The greatest probability of storms
will be over eastern portions of the Permian Basin, and while
widespread severe weather is not currently anticipated, stronger
storms will have the potential to produce large hail. Other threats
with any storms that develop are gusty winds, brief downpours, and
frequent lightning.

By Saturday afternoon, the precipitation will shift east of the
area, and given the aforementioned cold front isn`t of Polar origin,
temperatures through the weekend should be seasonable. In the wake
of the departing system, Sunday and Monday could be quite breezy,
with high winds possible over higher terrain, particularly over the
Davis Mountains. A return to a northwest flow regime will also
dictate a dry forecast through the extended, thus, while a second
cold front will move through the area Monday, it will be dry, and
result in slightly below normal temperatures Monday and Tuesday.
Temperatures should then slowly moderate into the middle 60s through
the rest of the week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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673
FXUS64 KMAF 212344
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
537 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Southeast winds will become light and variable overnight through
Saturday morning.  Low ceilings and visibilities will be possible
starting around 03z and continuing until around 18z.  Fog is
possible from about 09z to 15z.  Thunderstorms will also be possible
during this time, especially for MAF.  Thunderstorms will also be
possible into Saturday afternoon for MAF and FST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Warm advection will continue across the region tonight, yielding
mild overnight temperatures in the 40s and 50s area-wide, with mid
to upper 30s on the Marfa Plateau. Boundary layer moisture will also
continue to increase tonight, and given the dense fog that some
locations experienced this morning, would not be surprised to see
fog/low cloud redevelopment late this evening and overnight,
particularly for areas near and north of the Pecos River. While
dense fog is possible, it is not currently mentioned in the
forecast, and will need monitored by later shifts if an advisory
ends up being warranted.

A potent upper level system currently located over southwest Arizona
per latest water vapor imagery continues its trek east-southeastward
toward the area, and will dominate sensible weather for the next
24-36 hours. Models are in very good agreement regarding the track
of this system, with the trough continuing to dig as the trough
passes just south of the Big Bend by 18Z Saturday, before lifting
northeast and developing a negative tilt as it moves toward the
Lower Mississippi Valley.  Modest 500mb height falls will overspread
the region this evening ahead of the approaching trough, and given
support from a 300mb jet rounding the base of the trough, ascent
will increase across the area, particularly over the Trans Pecos and
Permian Basin. Ample low level convergence along and ahead of an
eastward-moving cold front will further increase forcing, and in the
presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and elevated instability on
the order of 1000 J/kg, thunderstorms are expected to develop
tonight through early Saturday. The greatest probability of storms
will be over eastern portions of the Permian Basin, and while
widespread severe weather is not currently anticipated, stronger
storms will have the potential to produce large hail. Other threats
with any storms that develop are gusty winds, brief downpours, and
frequent lightning.

By Saturday afternoon, the precipitation will shift east of the
area, and given the aforementioned cold front isn`t of Polar origin,
temperatures through the weekend should be seasonable. In the wake
of the departing system, Sunday and Monday could be quite breezy,
with high winds possible over higher terrain, particularly over the
Davis Mountains. A return to a northwest flow regime will also
dictate a dry forecast through the extended, thus, while a second
cold front will move through the area Monday, it will be dry, and
result in slightly below normal temperatures Monday and Tuesday.
Temperatures should then slowly moderate into the middle 60s through
the rest of the week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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