Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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690
FXUS64 KMAF 132046
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
246 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Sfc obs and satellite imagery show fog/stratus persisted yet again
into early afternoon, particularly in the river bottoms, aided by a
variable veil of high cloud retarding diurnal burn-off.  Brief upper
ridging has pushed east of West Texas and Southeast New Mexico in
response to an upper trough over the intersection of CA/NV/AZ.  All
models are now in good agreement in tilting this feature to the
negative beginning late this afternoon...and pushing it thru the
Texas/OK Panhandles Sunday afternoon.  Convection ahead of the
trough in ern AZ will continue developing thru NM this
afternoon/evening, and move thru the northern zones late tonight.
The NAM is a little more moist and unstable than the GFS, but
forecast soundings of both over the Wrn Low Rolling Plains are not
real impressive, w/mid-lvl LR`s barely cracking 7C/KM.  However,
deep-lyr shear of 45-55 kts and 50-55kt mid-lvl winds will support
organized development across the northern half of the FA, w/small
hail expected.  Given storm motion of 30-40 kts, surfaces should get
just wet enough to put the car washes back in business.

Otherwise, the Pac front should push east of the FA by 18Z, Sunday,
w/windy conditions in its wake.  If the trough were 6-12 hrs slower,
things would be windier Sunday afternoon, but timing is such that a
marginal high wind event will be likely in the Guadalupes.  The NAM
develops a nice mtn wave signature omtns overnight, but retains this
far enough into the afternoon to upgrade the current watch to a
warning.  This is supported by H7 height gradients over SE NM
tightening up to 60m/200nm by 18Z Sunday.  Forecast soundings for
KGDP mix to above H8, where 40+kt westerlies are forecast.  We`ll
also throw in an advisory for TXZ057.  The rest of adjacent plains
should remain under advisory criteria.

Following the trough, zonal flow aloft quickly transitions to SW as
the next trough begins developing along the west coast.  Models are
not in very good agreement by this point, but generally bring a weak
upper trough thru the area Wednesday, and a deeper, main trough
Thursday night.  This will result in temps AOB normal into the
extended, w/a chance of convection, mainly Wednesday and Thursday
night.  Yesterday`s ECMWF, which was trending cold enough for frozen
precip w/Thursday night`s trough, has backed off significantly, and
all precip in the extended looks liquid attm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 46  62  34  61  /  10  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              53  66  37  61  /  10  10   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                39  62  30  60  /  10  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  52  68  39  68  /  10  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           49  64  37  62  /  10  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          33  52  36  53  /  10  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   40  59  32  60  /  10  10   0   0
MARFA TX                   35  57  26  60  /  10  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    51  63  34  60  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  47  62  34  60  /  10  10   0   0
WINK TX                    46  65  34  67  /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING from 11 AM to 5 PM MST Sunday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...WIND ADVISORY from Noon to 6 PM CST Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     HIGH WIND WARNING from 11 AM to 5 PM MST Sunday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

84/44

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