Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 220819

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
319 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

Upper low over the NW part of the country this morning will
continue to lift NE but additional lobes will rotate down behind it.
Upper ridge over the area will shift east as the trough grows across
the Western US.  This will put the region into SW flow aloft and
allow disturbances to track across the area.  It will take most of
the week for this secondary part of the trough to swing through and
by the time it does another upper low moves onto the NW coast.

Have very good low level moisture in place this morning with dewpts
in the low to mid 60s and even into the 70s in Terrell.  Low clouds
spreading NW.  Did not have that many storms around yesterday but
some of them did produce large hail... with some storms continuing
overnight.  May see a repeat of those today as a slight risk in
effect today for eastern half of the area as storms are expected to
develop along a dryline again today.  Mention of severe storms
already in the zones/grids so will keep that and will continue to
highlight large hail and damaging wind in the HWO.  Storm chances
continue for the east Monday with pops decreasing on Tuesday.  Some
low pops continue through the extended mainly for the east.

Temperatures have been unseasonably warm and running above
guidance... will go over guidance again today as much of the area
should climb into the 90s.  The rest of the week looks warm with 90s
for most of the region each day.  Overnight lows will remain


Dry and breezy conditions expected across western portions of the
region today as a dryline pushes east through the afternoon. Minimum
relative humidity will quickly drop below 15 percent across SE NM
south through the Big Bend. Critical fire weather conditions are
expected to develop across the Guadalupe Mountains where wind speeds
will be greater than 20 mph. Will go ahead and upgrade the Fire
Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains for
this afternoon and early evening. The Guadalupe Mountains will
likely see a repeat event on Monday and a Fire Weather Watch is now
in effect for this area.


Big Spring                     87  68  93  70 /  40  40  20  20
Carlsbad                       94  61  94  59 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                         91  72  91  71 /  20  30  20  20
Fort Stockton                  91  67  93  65 /  20  20  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 85  60  86  58 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          90  60  89  59 /  10  10  10  10
Marfa                          86  51  88  49 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           92  69  94  68 /  30  30  20  20
Odessa                         92  69  93  68 /  20  30  10  20
Wink                           95  66  96  65 /  10  20  10  20


.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 10
     PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains.



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