Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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059
FXUS64 KMAF 300537
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1237 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance.

The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is the potential for
low cigs/vis through the early morning and thunderstorms mainly
Tuesday afternoon. Currently have a few light showers around the
area with only a few thunderstorms SE of FST tonight. VFR currently
prevailing but think there is a decent chance terminals will see
MVFR/IFR cigs developing over the next few hours, lasting through
mid morning. Have included SHRA in prevailing groups given the
spotty activity and the uncertainty in how the remainder of the
night will go as far as additional convection goes. Will continue to
monitor radar/satellite trends and amend if needed. Otherwise,
winds will generally be from the E/NE aob 10kt.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 258 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Bottom line up top...
*  Flash flood watch in effect for much of west Texas and all of
   southeastern New Mexico until 7 am CDT/6 am MDT Tuesday.
*  Impacts greatest across northwestern Permian Basin, Lea County
   NM.
*  Moist and unsettled conditions through rest of week.

Ingredients-based approach to flash flooding painting a bullseye
on Andrews and Gaines counties of west Texas this afternoon as
rich moisture transport, an unstable airmass, and weak steering
flow combine for training echoes. We expect these conditions to
become a bit more organized late this afternoon/early this
evening, ranging from the Big Bend north across the central and
western Basin and from there west across southeastern New Mexico.

Andrews 2E West Texas Mesonet saw 2"/hour rainfall rates earlier
this afternoon, and this figures given a deep (3 km) warm layer
promoting efficient collision/coalescence rain processes, a
saturated airmass with precipitable water values in the 1.6"-1.8"
range (2 s.d. above climatology), and weak steering flow. Deep
layer lift is a given with minor impulses coming around an upper
low over the Four Corners. Moisture transport flux looks to be
most impressive tonight with 850 hPa mixing ratios near 16 g/kg
and net east flow pumping more moisture into convective towers.
Widespread 1"-2" rains likely in the flash flood watch area, with
isolated amounts exceeding 6" expected across Lea County east
across the northwestern Basin. The wind threat doesn`t appear that
impressive; however, wet microbursts with outflow nearing 50 mph
isn`t out of the question. Lastly, there`s a decent bit of parcel
acceleration seen in the model soundings in the -15C to -25C
layer, thus occasional to frequent lightning will also be a
threat.

Rain will taper off a bit in the morning hours Tuesday before a
second round is forecast, mainly for southeastern New Mexico,
Tuesday afternoon and evening. Precip forecasts for Tuesday not as
much as what we`ll see overnight owing to some drier air impinging
from the east. Beyond Tuesday, expect a slight warming trend with
temperatures in the 85-95F range and lows generally in the 60s.
Rain chances will decrease through the week but will still be
present, with the best chances found over the mountains and
adjacent plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     68  86  70  87 /  50  40  30  40
Carlsbad                       65  80  66  83 /  70  50  40  40
Dryden                         70  87  71  90 /  50  40  20  20
Fort Stockton                  65  85  67  86 /  60  40  20  30
Guadalupe Pass                 59  74  61  76 /  60  50  30  40
Hobbs                          64  81  64  81 /  60  50  40  40
Marfa                          60  77  61  79 /  60  40  30  40
Midland Intl Airport           67  85  68  87 /  50  40  30  40
Odessa                         67  85  68  86 /  50  40  30  40
Wink                           67  86  68  87 /  70  40  30  40

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM MDT Tuesday for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-
     Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

TX...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ this morning for
     Andrews-Big Bend Area-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa
     Plateau-Martin-Midland-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

$$

27/10/

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