Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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687
FXUS64 KMAF 052334
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
634 PM CDT Tue May 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue through the evening with the few
storms staying east of the TAF sites. Expect low clouds with
MVFR/IFR cigs to move up across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans
Pecos in the morning affecting MAF and FST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT Tue May 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The low pressure system over the southwest that has been responsible
for our unsettled weather pattern the past few days is finally
opened up and is lifting to the northeast as a negatively tilted
open wave, though a jet rounding the base of the trough as well as a
few subtle shortwaves in the flow are enough support for another
round of convection this afternoon/evening, given potent
antecedent conditions across the area. Convective debris leftover
from this morning`s convection has been slow to wear off over
eastern portions of the forecast area, but that said, continued
clearing and highs in the 80s this afternoon will yield at least
moderate instability along and east of the dryline. High
resolution guidance for this afternoon/evening indicates two
potential "bulls-eyes" most favorable for severe convection in our
area, where MUCAPE values potentially in excess of 2500 J/kg.
These areas are across the northern Permian Basin and Western Low
Rolling Plains, as well as the Lower Trans Pecos and Stockton
Plateau. Steepening lapse rates as the upper trough lifts across
the region would indicate large hail as being the primary threat,
but given the prevalence of leftover boundaries across the area,
as well as a favorable environment for anticipated storm motion
east of the dryline toward central Texas, a brief tornado could
also be possible.

Currently, a line of non-severe storms extends along the rather
muddled dryline from roughly Snyder south-southwestward through Big
Spring toward Sanderson.  Storms have also begun to develop over the
higher terrain of southeast New Mexico, and these are expected to
move out over the southeast New Mexico Plains as we head further
into the afternoon/evening. Behind the aforementioned line of
storms, diurnal destabilization has resulted in the development of
an agitated cu field extending from the Trans Pecos to the higher
terrain of the Davis and Glass Mountains to the south and the
Guadalupe Mountains to the West.  The main question remains whether
or not the dryline will shift west this evening, and if so, how far,
given subsidence in the wake of the departing upper trough. Latest
HRRR and NSSL WRF indicate the development of storms across the
Trans Pecos and central Permian Basin, but overall, the focus for
strongest storms and with greatest coverage should be further
east, with motion vectors carrying storms into a more favorable
environment toward central Texas, especially through the latter
part of the evening.

For the extended, models are in agreement of yet another trough
digging south over the Pacific coast and developing into a 500mb
closed low as it drifts eastward across the Four Corners Region,
keeping the dryline in place across the area. However, given the
exact location of the dryline with the upcoming trough has yet to
be established for later this week, have gone ahead and maintained
the chance PoPs through the extended, and did not deviate much
from the blended model solution. Temperature- wise, a warming
trend will continue through the end of the week and into the
weekend, with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s across much
of the area, before a cool down late in the weekend and early next
week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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