Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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289
FXUS64 KMAF 251639
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1139 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Update to increase high temperatures and adjust PoPs, which will
include the latest Aviation Discussion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The dryline is mixing eastward late this morning and expect it to
make it to the eastern fringe of the Permian Basin this afternoon,
but think it will get hung up southwestward across the Lower Trans
Pecos.  High temperatures will likely warm above forecast values due
to westerly downslope winds compressing and warming the air,
especially in areas where rainfall has been scarce lately.  Despite
extensive high cloud over the Big Bend region and Lower Trans Pecos,
temperatures will warm to levels a degree or two higher than
yesterday.  The atmosphere will become very unstable over the Lower
Trans Pecos where dewpoints will stay near 70 F, but instability
will be low farther west through the Big Bend.

There is some darkening on Water Vapor Imagery, which is indicative
a shortwave trough, translating northeastward over the Mexican state
of Chihuahua.  The right rear quadrant of a 100+kt h25 jet will also
be moving over these areas.  Think these factors could aid
thunderstorm development over the Big Bend region through the
afternoon with high based storms capable of gusty winds due to a dry
subcloud layer.  Thunderstorms could also develop over the Lower
Trans Pecos through late afternoon as the cap weakens.  Since shear
is plentiful and lapse rates steep, and considering the unstable
atmosphere there, large hail, damaging winds, heavy rainfall and
frequent lightning strikes will be possible with any storms in these
areas.  Think the dryline will move far enough east over the Permian
Basin so will remove PoPs in these areas for this afternoon.  Will
send an update shortly to account for the changes to the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at area terminals this afternoon and
tonight.  Southwest winds will remain gusty through the afternoon,
but will decrease this evening.  Thunderstorms could develop near
KFST through 26/00Z, if not KMAF through 26/06Z.  Since probability
is low, will not mention TSRA in this issuance.  Low clouds and fog
will form late tonight and possibly affect KMAF and KHOB though
26/14Z.  Will hold off on adding any lower conditions at either site
since the dryline may begin to move east and keep the lower
conditions east of the terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 419 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/

An upper level trough is over the western conus with west southwest
flow aloft over the CWA.  The dryline this afternoon is expected to
be across the Lower Trans Pecos and just east of the Permian Basin.
Thunderstorms will be possible across this area today as well as
across the Davis Mountains and Presidio Valley with a shortwave
approaching this area.  There is expected to be high CAPE values and
good bulk shear and lapse rates across Terrell County and the Lower
Trans Pecos this afternoon but upper lift may be lacking until a
shortwave moves across this area this evening into the overnight
hours.  Severe thunderstorms will be possible across this area
beginning late this afternoon into the overnight hours, and SPC has
this area marked in a slight risk.  Temperatures today are expected
to be similar to yesterday with highs above normal.

The upper trough will be over the Four Corners region on Thursday
with the dryline across the same area as today.  Temperatures on
Thursday are expected to cool to near normal values as a Pacific
front moves into the area.  Thunderstorms will be possible across
the Western Low Rolling Plains, eastern Permian Basin, Lower Trans
Pecos, and southward to the Big Bend area.  The severe parameters
will be good, especially across the Lower Trans Pecos, but the upper
lift will not come until Thursday night.  So storm chances with
possible severe weather will increase Thursday night.

The upper trough will begin moving over the central conus on Friday
with the dryline located to the east of the CWA.  Temperatures on
Friday are expected to be similar to Thursday.  The upper trough
lifts northward over the Northern Plains on Saturday with another
upper trough developing over southern California.  Higher dewpoints
are anticipated over the Lower Trans Pecos and Terrell County on
Saturday so storm chances will mostly remain confined to this area.
The previously mentioned upper trough broadens across the west
allowing upper lift to remain over the region.  The dryline is
expected to be further west on Sunday so storm chances will be
present across most of the area except the far western CWA.
Temperatures will be at or slightly below normal on Sunday due to
the increase in precipitation and cloud cover.  Similar conditions
are expected for Monday and Tuesday except the dryline will be
slightly more east.  Precipitation chances will again increase on
Wednesday with temperatures staying at or slightly below normal.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Critical fire wx will continue to be focused across the GDP Mtns
and SE NM thru Thursday. Persistent sw flow aloft favors holding a
very warm (12-13C) mid level thermal ridge at 7h in place, even
moreso today. Soundings show mixing to around 5h, thus steep LRs and
this with mid level dry air does favor the HI of at least briefly
hitting a 6 today. Meanwhile this deep mixed layer has an average
wind about 25kts supporting the windy conditions in the GDP Mtns and
breezy for a few hrs in the SE NM Plains today. Single digit RHs are
a forgone conclusion. More of the same Thur except that winds will
be stronger, mixed layer winds closer to 30kts. However mid level
heights will fall and 7h temps will be noticeably cooler so RH/s
will trend a little higher, especially higher elevations from GDP
Mtns down into the Davis Mtns. Still Thur will be another critical
fire wx day, mainly GDP Mtns/SE NM but could go farther s into Van
Horn area and e into the NW PB. For now we will leave headline as a
watch but RF wx looks to be solid GDP Mtns/SE NM. Critical fire wx
conditions will abate on Fri, warm temps will rapidly return Sat in
the mtns. GFS is mostly the lone model suggesting "some" precip
farther w Sat night and Sun, seems unlikely at this point for the
mtns of the Trans Pecos.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     96  71  92  65 /  10  10  20  40
Carlsbad                       97  59  91  53 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                         97  74  92  70 /  30  40  40  40
Fort Stockton                 100  68  94  60 /  20  20  20  30
Guadalupe Pass                 88  58  80  53 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          94  60  89  53 /  10   0  10  10
Marfa                          89  55  85  46 /  20  20  10  10
Midland Intl Airport          101  70  91  64 /  10  10  10  30
Odessa                        101  71  91  63 /  10  10  10  30
Wink                          101  65  94  56 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

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