Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 281049

549 AM CDT Thu May 28 2015


See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.



Latest sfc obs show moisture/dryline backed all the way up against
the mtns, making for a muggy morning. Models redevelop convective activity
today as a few minor shortwaves move thru SW flow aloft to initiate
things.  Meanwhile, forecast soundings develop a fairly widespread
stratus deck over the next few hours, w/IFR/MVFR cigs forming at
KMAF/KHOB/KINK, and MVFR at KFST. This will dissapate by late
morning, to be replaced by a cu field w/bases 2-6 kft agl. Models
are all over the place w/convection, so we`ll not insert it unless
needed. MVFR cigs/vsbys will be possible near the end of the
forecast period.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT Thu May 28 2015/


Storms have quieted down this morning after a fairly active
Wednesday evening. Looking for a repeat this afternoon with
possibly more widespread convection than what we saw yesterday. A
dampening upper trough will provide enough lift for showers and
thunderstorms to develop as it moves across the region later today.
The dryline will be held back west across SE NM again today with
dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s east of the boundary. Sfc heating
combined with a moist environment will lead to a strong instability
axis developing across the Permian Basin and SE NM south to the Big
Bend. CAPE values are expected to exceed 3000 J/kg with lapse rates
near 8 C/km. Deep layer shear near 35 kts will be more than enough
to support organized convection across the area. Several clusters of
strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop during the
afternoon with large hail and damaging winds being the main threats.
These clusters may eventually form into one larger complex and move
east across the region overnight. Heavy rain and localized flooding
will also be a possibility due to a mostly saturated ground and
PWATs climbing over an inch.

Friday should be mostly dry and very warm as we await a cold front
moving south across the Plains. This front will arrive Friday night
and Saturday morning with another round of showers and
thunderstorms. Models are hinting that a convective system will form
across the TX Panhandle Friday night and sweep across the northern
half of the area. Could see more severe weather and almost certainly
some heavy rain with this system. A Flash Flood Watch may be needed
if model trends continue. This convection will likely give the front
an extra push into the Lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend. For this
reason will carry highest PoPs in these areas for Saturday
afternoon. Temperatures will cool well below normal Saturday
afternoon with highs mostly in the 70s and 80s.

Long term models are showing an upper level pattern change beginning
early next week. An upper ridge, albeit weak, looks to build in from
the west. If this holds, our region along with the rest of the
Southern Plains will get a break from precipitation. A few
isolated storms can`t be ruled out but the majority of us will
stay dry. Temperatures will also be on the way up with highs
likely pushing well into the 90s.






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