Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 161716

1158 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2014


See 18z aviation below.



A few showers are across the area this afternoon and additional
development of showers and thunderstorms is expected.  Did not
include convection in the TAFs at this time but will continue to
monitor and amend as needed.  Winds will be mostly light with
northerly winds expected for CNM and HOB and southerly winds
expected for the other terminals.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2014/

There does not appear to be too much change from last nights model
runs with subtropical ridge centered across AZ and minor shrtwv
trof within NW-N flow aloft. Convection has been moving across the
area early this morning with modest LLJ impinging on outflow
boundary, but it does look to be slowly waning and exiting to the
east. Based on deterministic model QPFs including SREF QPF
probabilities there will be good opportunity for at least scattered
PoPs from the Davis Mtns ene thru the PB during max heating. This is
pretty well handled in current fcst and have only trend up PoPs
slightly and moreso in the Davis Mtns. NAM12 continues to reflect a
cold pool in temp field across the PB after 21Z so we`ll have to
watch for higher PoPs. Mid and upper 20C 85h temps continue to
support above normal temps but again convection could alter this to
be a little cooler. 5h heights fall slightly Sunday and 85h temps
are a little cooler too while axis of higher precip will shift swd
into the Lower Trans Pecos. Only minor changes are needed to account
for this. Drying trend will continue into Monday/Tuesday however
5h/7h heights are seasonally low suggesting near to just below
seasonal temperatures. As an upper low moves into/near SoCal
Wednesday the monsoonal moist axis will shift ewd making it into the
far wrn CWFA, thus warranting an increase in PoPs there and probably
moreso Thur. 7h temps in the extended forecast are a little above
normal per NAEFS, but high temperatures will be somewhat nice
compared to what they could be this time of yr. There are no
anomalies seen Fri/Sat in the temperature/height/mstr fields in the
GEFS/NAEFS ensemble data.






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