656
FXUS64 KMAF 122157
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
457 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS NEXT 24 HOURS...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A CU FIELD MOST TERMINALS 16-19Z
THURSDAY...W/BASES 3-7 KFT AGL. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY AS A GULF COAST TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH...BUT
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF KFST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 149 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013/
DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS EARLY TODAY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
EAST AS AN UPPER LOW ROLLS AROUND THE BOTTOM OF RIDGE. CURRENTLY
THERE ARE STORMS OVER THE GULF AND SOUTH TX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. THIS LOW WILL MOVE WEST ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND THEN
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN TO THE AREA.
WITH SE FLOW AT THE SURFACE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS WORK UP INTO THE PERMIAN
BASIN PERHAPS REACHING SE NM TOMORROW MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY.
DEWPTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 60S AREAWIDE.
THE PW HAS INCREASED TO OVER 1 INCH ON 12Z MAF SOUNDING... WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS PUSHING IT TO OVER 1.5 INCHES BY FRIDAY. WILL BEGIN
WITH SOME LOW POPS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE TONIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTING
MUCH. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT
THERE ARE NO GUARANTEES THAT MOST AREA RESIDENTS WILL RECEIVE RAINFALL.
MODEL QPF INDICATES SOME GOOD RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT ALSO
LOOKS A LITTLE SPOTTY IN COVERAGE AT TIMES. EXPECT THE BIG BEND/
LOWER TRANS PECOS/DAVIS MTNS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RECEIVING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN BASED ON THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE LOW. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SOUTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN HWO BUT CONFIDENCE/POPS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR
A WATCH AT THIS TIME. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE AND SHIFT TO EASTERN CWA
ON SATURDAY. UNDER THE RIDGE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOWER NEXT WEEK SO
HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY POPS AFTER SATURDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER. THIS MOISTURE WILL ALSO HELP TO
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM FALLING MUCH BELOW 70 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE RETURNS.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
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