Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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481
FXUS64 KMAF 111745
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1245 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Had a preliminary front move through overnight and expect a stronger
front to arrive midday tomorrow. Rain/storm chances will be on the
increase through the afternoon and tonight. Will also have
marginal MVFR cigs at most TAF sites with conditions decreasing
overnight.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Cold front currently near the Pecos River will be the main
surface feature of concern today and tonight. Low level
convergence coupled with strong upper level divergence should
provide plenty of lift on a moist (precipitable water values in
excess of 1.5 inches) and unstable atmosphere. There will be a
chance of showers and thunderstorms today across much of west
Texas and southeast New Mexico in this regime. The best chance for
heaviest rainfall this afternoon will be along and near the
interstate 10 corridor closet to the front. Locally heavy rainfall
with localized flooding will be possible especially in this
corridor this afternoon. By tonight the front will become
stationary and then begin to move northward as warm advection
increases in the lower layers. This will shift the best chance of
showers and thunderstorms northward to across the central and
northern Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico. Localized
flooding will continue to be a concern tonight with weak flow
aloft and high precipitable waters continuing. Will mention the
potential for localized flooding today and tonight in the
hazardous weather outlook. Although confidence was not quite high
enough at this time to saddle the day shift with a flash flood
watch, later shifts will need to monitor this potential for
tonight and or Friday with more significant precipitation
expected.

Chance to likely pops will continue Friday and Friday night as
another cold front plunges through the forecast area. Locally
heavy rainfall and localized flooding will remain a concern with
precipitable water values remaining above 1.5 inches areawide
with a moist ground expected from Thursday`s rainfall. Significantly
cooler temperatures are expected most areas today and Friday
behind these fronts with significant cloud cover and precipitation
expected.

Much below normal temperatures are expected Saturday through next
Monday behind these fronts as cool surface high pressure builds
into the region with widespread cloudiness. Precipitation chances
will remain in the forecast across much of west Texas and portions
of southeast New Mexico as moisture increases from Mexico and the
eastern Pacific due to tropical activity developing off Baja. A
more aggressive northwestward push of tropical moisture is possible
and will need to be watched for possible upgrade and expansion of
precipitation chances these periods.

Beyond Monday kept isolated diurnal thunderstorms mainly in the
mountains Tuesday through next Thursday in moist upslope flow.
Pops may need to be expanded into significant portions of the plains
Tuesday and or Wednesday if the ECMWF and CMC continue to depict
the the approach of another cold front.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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