Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 182312

612 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

See aviation discussion below.


VFR ceilings should become MVFR before 06z and continue through
at least mid Friday morning at the west Texas and southeast New
Mexico terminals. Scattered thunderstorms can be expected the
next 24 hours and have added TEMPO groups for MVFR conditions
in thunderstorms. Looking for MVFR ceilings to become VFR by
late Friday morning.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014/

Several areas across SE NM and northern Permian Basin received
moderate to heavy rainfall overnight and then throughout the
morning respectively, dropping over 2 inches of rain across some
locations. Clouds have thinned quite a bit this afternoon over
portions of the region, increasing instability across these
areas. Some isolated convection beginning to develop near the
Davis Mountains and we expect scattered activity to continue
through this evening. A weak outflow boundary just south of a
Wink to Midland to Garden City line will also serve as a focus
for thunderstorm development through the afternoon.

Flow aloft is nearly WSW today with the upper ridge flattened
somewhat to the south as the remnants of Odile wobbles toward
central NM. Our next disturbance from Odile will approach the region
this evening, increasing showers and thunderstorms across western
zones initially then shifting WNW overnight, treking across SE NM.
Many of these areas have already received 1-2 inches last night and
another 1-3 inches can be expected tonight. Friday, the upper ridge
looks to weaken further with the remnants of Odile progged to move
very close if not directly over SE NM, leading to another day of
rainfall over the same areas. And just as we are seeing this
afternoon, any breaks in the clouds during peak heating will
increase instability, adding to increased thunderstorm chances. The
atmosphere remains extremely moist with PWs near 160% of normal and
cell motion will be rather slow so moderate/heavy rainfall is
possible and the potential for flooding/flash flooding continues,
particularly across areas that receive multiple rounds of rainfall.
Will continue with moderate/heavy rain wording in the zones for
mainly the northern half of the CWA and the Davis Mountains region.
A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through Friday for all of SE
New Mexico, Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, Van Horn and the hwy 54
corridor, upper Trans Pecos and much of the Permian Basin.

The wet pattern looks to persist into the weekend as model guidance
indicates precip continuing with remnants of Odile still hanging
around and a weak cold front still on tap to arrive Sunday. Rain
chances may continue Monday if the front hangs around, but models
shunt best moisture to the west so thunderstorms may only be
confined to the higher terrain. Beyond Monday, NW flow aloft looks
to develop which would continue rain chances as shortwaves move SE
across the area. For now, will hold onto silent PoPs during this

Temperatures remain difficult due to clouds and rain but in general
expect highs in the in the mid to low 80s Friday then increasing a
couple degrees Saturday before the cold front arrives Sunday,
knocking temps back down heading into next week.


ANDREWS TX                 81  68  81  68  /  70  40  50  40
BIG SPRING TX              83  68  84  70  /  60  30  50  40
CARLSBAD NM                79  68  84  67  /  70  60  50  30
DRYDEN TX                  91  73  91  73  /  40  20  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           86  69  86  69  /  50  40  40  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          75  63  78  64  /  70  60  40  30
HOBBS NM                   78  65  79  65  /  70  60  60  40
MARFA TX                   80  62  81  61  /  50  50  40  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    84  69  83  70  /  70  40  40  30
ODESSA TX                  83  69  82  70  /  70  40  40  30
WINK TX                    84  69  86  70  /  70  50  50  30


     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...
     County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Winkler.




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