Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Skip options and go directly to product.
Home | Oldest Version | Previous Version | Current Version | All | Graphics & Text | Save Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off

Skip product version selection by date and time.   

458
FXUS64 KMAF 061733
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1233 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Several weak upper level disturbances will combine with a
southward moving cold front to produce scattered thunderstorms
across west Texas and southeast New Mexico the next 24 hours.
Confidence was high enough to include TEMPO and or PROB30 groups
at the terminals for thunderstorms. For now will keep conditions
in the VFR range, but will monitor. Cold front will result in a
wind shift and breezy north winds after 06z tonight at KCNM and
KHOB.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

There may be a period of MVFR ceilings at KMAF, but otherwise VFR
conditions will prevail.  Thunderstorms could affect all terminals
this afternoon and evening, id not beyond.  Will carry TSRA and
brief MVFR visibility in rain at all sites.  67

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Heavy rain and cooler temperatures are still on track to affect the
area over the next few days.

The upper ridge that was persistent over the area last week has now
flattened out across northern Mexico this morning. A theta-e axis
that led to widespread showers and thunderstorms west of the Pecos
River Sunday will expand east into the Permian Basin this
afternoon. The majority of the models develop precip across a good
bit of the CWA this afternoon. Temperatures will warm well into
the 80s and 90s today and combine with high amounts of moisture to
produce at least moderate instability. The severe weather threat
remains low, but a damaging wind gust can`t be ruled out. Heavy
rain will be a bigger concern due to slow storm motions and PWATs
climbing to near 2SD above normal. This threat will increase
overnight and Tuesday as a cold front slowly moves south into the
region. Upper level support will arrive later tonight as a
shortwave crosses the TX Panhandle. Northern portions of SE NM and
the northern Permian Basin look to see the best shot at heavy rain
and flooding. Will hold off on a Flash Flood Watch for now, but
one may need to be issued later today.

Temperatures look fairly cool for early July on Tuesday if
widespread clouds and rain verify. Highs a good 10 degrees below
normal are possible. The front lingers across the area into
Wednesday so the chance of rain and cooler temperatures will
continue. An developing upper ridge over the Southeast will slowly
build west helping to bring drier and warmer conditions late in the
week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/29

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.