Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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226
FXUS64 KMAF 282031
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
231 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Models continue to show the next upper level low moving into
northwestern Mexico by the weekend bringing widespread
precipitation to our area. Rainfall will develop around the Van
Horn area late Thursday and spread east Friday into Saturday.
Vertical sounding profiles still show temperatures too warm for
snow for most areas, with the best chances for snow being in the
Guadalupe Mountains, southeast New Mexico, and the northwestern
Permian Basin. There is some disagreement between guidance and raw
model data forecast dewpoints and temperatures which could affect
the precipitation type. Guidance suggests temperatures will be cold
enough to support snow for roughly all areas north of I-20 while
the raw data is too warm for snow. Given the large amount of
precipitation it may be difficult for dewpoints to drop low enough
for evaporative cooling to lower the temperatures so this forecast
continues with mostly rain. Models have backed off slightly on QPF
amounts, but PWATs double the norm for this time of year mean some
locations could receive in excess of an inch of rain. An upper low
in January 2013 brought over an inch of rain and some flooding to
Midland so it is definitely possible. The warm temperatures and
wet ground will make it difficult for any snow that falls to
accumulate, but one to two inches would not be out of the
question, especially in the higher elevations of the Guadalupe
Mountains.

The moisture will push off to the east on Sunday bringing an end
to the rain while the upper low slowly meanders into central
Mexico. A modest ridge will develop over the western U.S. keeping
us in northwesterly flow and allowing for only a slow warm up
early next week with highs reaching near normal by Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 43  58  35  43  /   0   0  30  40
BIG SPRING TX              46  60  36  47  /   0   0  20  30
CARLSBAD NM                41  58  36  41  /   0   0  50  60
DRYDEN TX                  48  71  46  52  /   0   0  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           47  64  39  48  /   0   0  20  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          44  53  31  38  /   0   0  50  60
HOBBS NM                   40  56  33  39  /   0   0  40  50
MARFA TX                   42  64  37  47  /   0   0  20  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    44  59  36  46  /   0   0  30  40
ODESSA TX                  45  60  36  46  /   0   0  30  40
WINK TX                    44  62  39  46  /   0   0  30  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

03/10

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198
FXUS64 KMAF 281738
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1138 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
A cold front will move into Southeast New Mexico and West Texas
after 09z. This will result in a surface wind shift to the
north. Surface winds behind the front will be breezy. Increasing
high level cloudiness is expected. However, VFR conditions are
expected area wide through the forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Another mild day is in store for southeast New Mexico and west Texas
today.  As a matter of fact, it`ll be pretty warm with temperatures
rising nearly 20 degrees above normal and challenging record highs.
This will occur as a surface trough strengthens over the southern
U.S. Plains and into the region ahead of a cold front.  Enjoy today
since temperatures will drop back to around normal levels Thursday,
especially north of Interstate 10.  Behind the front Thursday night,
gap winds in the Guadalupes may rise to at least 35 to 45 mph, so
will make a mention in the Hazardous Weather Outlook for now.  The
forecast will turn wet thereafter as a highly amplified upper trough
currently off the California coast heads east.

Temperatures will be cooler Thursday, and as the associated surface
ridge settles south into the area Thursday night, we should see rain
begin to break out over the western half of the forecast area.  This
will occur as low level easterly upslope flow combines with deep
layer lift ahead of a mid level shortwave trough and the approach of
the RRQ of a 90kt h25 jet.  Eastward progress of the rain may be a
little slow through the day Friday, but should become widespread
over the entire area Friday night as the above features move
overhead.  Therefore, have tempered rain chances a little over the
eastern CWA Friday, but increased PoPs areawide Friday night.  Some
wintry precipitation could mix in late Thursday night, Friday and
Friday night.  Forecast soundings indicate precipitation could
change to sleet or snow around 6kft in the Guadalupes, if not
northern Lea County.  Did not go with much accumulation since
temperatures through the atmospheric column are only marginally
conducive for some bursts of sleet and/or snow, heights/thicknesses
ahead of the upper trough are not very low and lastly surface
temperatures are just not very cold.  Later shifts will have to
monitor for any changes in any, or all, of the above.  For now, will
make a mention of a mix possible in these areas.  There could be
some localized, but minor flooding problems Friday and Friday night
as pwats rise to around 1 inch, or 2 s.d. above normal.  The best
moisture will head east on Saturday, and take the better rain
chances with it.

An elongated, positively tilted ua trough will extend over the
region by Saturday night.  An upper low will calve from this ua
trough and sink well south over Mexico.  There may be some light
precipitation over the area on Saturday night and Sunday as another
cold front moves south into the area.  The only shot at wintry
precipitation appears to be the Guadalupe Mountains and portions of
southeast New Mexico again.  Since moisture will be a little more
scarce, do not think there will be any appreciable accumulations.
Cooler than normal temperatures will prevail through early next
week, but it appears near to above normal readings will be possible
Tuesday and beyond.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

03

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525
FXUS64 KMAF 281111
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
511 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions with some high clouds are expected the next 24
hours. Winds will generally be less than 10 knots. A cold
front with a wind shift to the north and northeast is expected
late in the period across the northern terminals.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Another mild day is in store for southeast New Mexico and west Texas
today.  As a matter of fact, it`ll be pretty warm with temperatures
rising nearly 20 degrees above normal and challenging record highs.
This will occur as a surface trough strengthens over the southern
U.S. Plains and into the region ahead of a cold front.  Enjoy today
since temperatures will drop back to around normal levels Thursday,
especially north of Interstate 10.  Behind the front Thursday night,
gap winds in the Guadalupes may rise to at least 35 to 45 mph, so
will make a mention in the Hazardous Weather Outlook for now.  The
forecast will turn wet thereafter as a highly amplified upper trough
currently off the California coast heads east.

Temperatures will be cooler Thursday, and as the associated surface
ridge settles south into the area Thursday night, we should see rain
begin to break out over the western half of the forecast area.  This
will occur as low level easterly upslope flow combines with deep
layer lift ahead of a mid level shortwave trough and the approach of
the RRQ of a 90kt h25 jet.  Eastward progress of the rain may be a
little slow through the day Friday, but should become widespread
over the entire area Friday night as the above features move
overhead.  Therefore, have tempered rain chances a little over the
eastern CWA Friday, but increased PoPs areawide Friday night.  Some
wintry precipitation could mix in late Thursday night, Friday and
Friday night.  Forecast soundings indicate precipitation could
change to sleet or snow around 6kft in the Guadalupes, if not
northern Lea County.  Did not go with much accumulation since
temperatures through the atmospheric column are only marginally
conducive for some bursts of sleet and/or snow, heights/thicknesses
ahead of the upper trough are not very low and lastly surface
temperatures are just not very cold.  Later shifts will have to
monitor for any changes in any, or all, of the above.  For now, will
make a mention of a mix possible in these areas.  There could be
some localized, but minor flooding problems Friday and Friday night
as pwats rise to around 1 inch, or 2 s.d. above normal.  The best
moisture will head east on Saturday, and take the better rain
chances with it.

An elongated, positively tilted ua trough will extend over the
region by Saturday night.  An upper low will calve from this ua
trough and sink well south over Mexico.  There may be some light
precipitation over the area on Saturday night and Sunday as another
cold front moves south into the area.  The only shot at wintry
precipitation appears to be the Guadalupe Mountains and portions of
southeast New Mexico again.  Since moisture will be a little more
scarce, do not think there will be any appreciable accumulations.
Cooler than normal temperatures will prevail through early next
week, but it appears near to above normal readings will be possible
Tuesday and beyond.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 77  43  58  39  /   0   0   0  20
BIG SPRING TX              79  46  60  38  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                78  43  57  39  /   0   0  10  50
DRYDEN TX                  81  52  74  49  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           78  45  60  42  /   0   0   0  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          69  44  52  34  /   0   0  10  60
HOBBS NM                   75  39  54  36  /   0   0  10  30
MARFA TX                   74  36  61  40  /   0   0  10  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    78  44  59  40  /   0   0   0  20
ODESSA TX                  77  45  58  40  /   0   0   0  20
WINK TX                    79  45  62  42  /   0   0   0  30

&&


.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/67

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443
FXUS64 KMAF 280935
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
335 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Another mild day is in store for southeast New Mexico and west Texas
today.  As a matter of fact, it`ll be pretty warm with temperatures
rising nearly 20 degrees above normal and challenging record highs.
This will occur as a surface trough strengthens over the southern
U.S. Plains and into the region ahead of a cold front.  Enjoy today
since temperatures will drop back to around normal levels Thursday,
especially north of Interstate 10.  Behind the front Thursday night,
gap winds in the Guadalupes may rise to at least 35 to 45 mph, so
will make a mention in the Hazardous Weather Outlook for now.  The
forecast will turn wet thereafter as a highly amplified upper trough
currently off the California coast heads east.

Temperatures will be cooler Thursday, and as the associated surface
ridge settles south into the area Thursday night, we should see rain
begin to break out over the western half of the forecast area.  This
will occur as low level easterly upslope flow combines with deep
layer lift ahead of a mid level shortwave trough and the approach of
the RRQ of a 90kt h25 jet.  Eastward progress of the rain may be a
little slow through the day Friday, but should become widespread
over the entire area Friday night as the above features move
overhead.  Therefore, have tempered rain chances a little over the
eastern CWA Friday, but increased PoPs areawide Friday night.  Some
wintry precipitation could mix in late Thursday night, Friday and
Friday night.  Forecast soundings indicate precipitation could
change to sleet or snow around 6kft in the Guadalupes, if not
northern Lea County.  Did not go with much accumulation since
temperatures through the atmospheric column are only marginally
conducive for some bursts of sleet and/or snow, heights/thicknesses
ahead of the upper trough are not very low and lastly surface
temperatures are just not very cold.  Later shifts will have to
monitor for any changes in any, or all, of the above.  For now, will
make a mention of a mix possible in these areas.  There could be
some localized, but minor flooding problems Friday and Friday night
as pwats rise to around 1 inch, or 2 s.d. above normal.  The best
moisture will head east on Saturday, and take the better rain
chances with it.

An elongated, positively tilted ua trough will extend over the
region by Saturday night.  An upper low will calve from this ua
trough and sink well south over Mexico.  There may be some light
precipitation over the area on Saturday night and Sunday as another
cold front moves south into the area.  The only shot at wintry
precipitation appears to be the Guadalupe Mountains and portions of
southeast New Mexico again.  Since moisture will be a little more
scarce, do not think there will be any appreciable accumulations.
Cooler than normal temperatures will prevail through early next
week, but it appears near to above normal readings will be possible
Tuesday and beyond.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 77  43  58  39  /   0   0   0  20
BIG SPRING TX              79  46  60  38  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                78  43  57  39  /   0   0  10  50
DRYDEN TX                  81  52  74  49  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           78  45  60  42  /   0   0   0  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          69  44  52  34  /   0   0  10  60
HOBBS NM                   75  39  54  36  /   0   0  10  30
MARFA TX                   74  36  61  40  /   0   0  10  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    78  44  59  40  /   0   0   0  20
ODESSA TX                  77  45  58  40  /   0   0   0  20
WINK TX                    79  45  62  42  /   0   0   0  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/67

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796
FXUS64 KMAF 280347
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
947 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

DISCUSSION...

See 06z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Generally light
westerly sfc flow will continue, w/a few high clouds.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 149 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
The main feature of interest is an upper low over the Western US.
The initial low looks to move off to the NE around the top of a
ridge over the center of the country... but a secondary low off the
coast develops into a deep trough by late Thursday as it moves
ashore and becoming cut off by Friday.  Still uncertainty in the
models as to if this low just spins across Mexico into next week or
kicks out.

Have cooled temps a few degrees tonight and warmed Wednesdays
readings.  An upper ridge over the area will result in another warm
day on Wednesday with a west wind at the surface.  A cold front
looks to blow through early Thursday with a fairly brisk fropa.  NE
wind will be chilly and veer around to the E by evening.  Should
have increasing mid and high clouds ahead of the low as Pacific
moisture flows into the region.

Precip chances start Thursday night out west and spread east across
the area Friday through Sunday.  Shortwaves ejecting out ahead of
the low will provide plenty of lift.  Most of the precip should be
as rain as temps look too warm.  Snow mainly confined to the
Guadalupes.  Late Friday into Saturday looks to be the best chance
of precip.  Model soundings show PW in the Permian Basin pushing up
to close to an inch... could end up with good rainfall.  Actually
have had well above normal precipitation year to date and have
potential to get a good amount more.  Briefly discussed possibility
of a Flash Flood Watch but will hold off for now... will emphasis in
the HWO.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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077
FXUS64 KMAF 272255
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
455 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Light sfc flow will
veer slightly to W, w/a few high clouds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 149 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
The main feature of interest is an upper low over the Western US.
The initial low looks to move off to the NE around the top of a
ridge over the center of the country... but a secondary low off the
coast develops into a deep trough by late Thursday as it moves
ashore and becoming cut off by Friday.  Still uncertainty in the
models as to if this low just spins across Mexico into next week or
kicks out.

Have cooled temps a few degrees tonight and warmed Wednesdays
readings.  An upper ridge over the area will result in another warm
day on Wednesday with a west wind at the surface.  A cold front
looks to blow through early Thursday with a fairly brisk fropa.  NE
wind will be chilly and veer around to the E by evening.  Should
have increasing mid and high clouds ahead of the low as Pacific
moisture flows into the region.

Precip chances start Thursday night out west and spread east across
the area Friday through Sunday.  Shortwaves ejecting out ahead of
the low will provide plenty of lift.  Most of the precip should be
as rain as temps look too warm.  Snow mainly confined to the
Guadalupes.  Late Friday into Saturday looks to be the best chance
of precip.  Model soundings show PW in the Permian Basin pushing up
to close to an inch... could end up with good rainfall.  Actually
have had well above normal precipitation year to date and have
potential to get a good amount more.  Briefly discussed possibility
of a Flash Flood Watch but will hold off for now... will emphasis in
the HWO.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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268
FXUS64 KMAF 271949
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
149 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
The main feature of interest is an upper low over the Western US.
The initial low looks to move off to the NE around the top of a
ridge over the center of the country... but a secondary low off the
coast develops into a deep trough by late Thursday as it moves
ashore and becoming cut off by Friday.  Still uncertainty in the
models as to if this low just spins across Mexico into next week or
kicks out.

Have cooled temps a few degrees tonight and warmed Wednesdays
readings.  An upper ridge over the area will result in another warm
day on Wednesday with a west wind at the surface.  A cold front
looks to blow through early Thursday with a fairly brisk fropa.  NE
wind will be chilly and veer around to the E by evening.  Should
have increasing mid and high clouds ahead of the low as Pacific
moisture flows into the region.

Precip chances start Thursday night out west and spread east across
the area Friday through Sunday.  Shortwaves ejecting out ahead of
the low will provide plenty of lift.  Most of the precip should be
as rain as temps look too warm.  Snow mainly confined to the
Guadalupes.  Late Friday into Saturday looks to be the best chance
of precip.  Model soundings show PW in the Permian Basin pushing up
to close to an inch... could end up with good rainfall.  Actually
have had well above normal precipitation year to date and have
potential to get a good amount more.  Briefly discussed possibility
of a Flash Flood Watch but will hold off for now... will emphasis in
the HWO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 37  77  40  56  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              42  79  43  56  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                37  76  38  56  /   0   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  49  79  47  67  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           47  80  45  61  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          45  67  41  49  /   0   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                   37  75  39  55  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   36  74  37  62  /   0   0   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    38  78  41  57  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  38  77  41  56  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    38  79  40  58  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/72

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041
FXUS64 KMAF 271721
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1121 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions and light westerly winds this TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Mid and high cloud will decrease today as moisture at these levels
heads into an upper ridge axis over the region.  Pretty good heating
will occur across the forecast area with temperatures rising a good
10 to 15 degrees above normal.  The same appears to be on tap
Wednesday as the upper ridge remains over the region, except highs
could be closer to 15 to 20 degrees above normal.  A shortwave
trough will translate southeastward through the northern/central
U.S. Plains Wednesday, and send a cold front south into the area
Thursday.  We should see temperatures closer to seasonal norms,
especially as mid and high cloud begin to increase ahead of a sharp
upper trough off the California coast/Baja Peninsula.

A cool surface high will become entrenched over the forecast area
Thursday night while copious amounts of mid and upper level moisture
stream northeastward over the region ahead of the mentioned ua
trough.  A series of mid level shortwave troughs will move over the
region ahead of the ua trough, and along with the RRQ of a 90kt h25
jet, promote large scale ascent above the cool surface airmass.  No
instability is indicated above the boundary layer, and mid level
lapse rates are paltry, so do not think we will see any convection.
However, rain will become widespread over the area, then last
through the day Friday before tapering off somewhat Friday night/
Saturday morning as the best moisture shifts east of the area.
Models bring precipitable water values to near 1 inch across the
forecast area, which is 2 standard deviations above normal!
Moderate to heavy rainfall could result in 1 to 2 inches amounts in
a few locations, and could lead to minor flooding problems.
Although the air through the atmospheric column may be cold enough
to support some snowfall in the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast
New Mexico Plains Friday and Friday night, think the rainfall rates
will be great enough to overwhelm cooler surface temperatures and
keep readings above freezing.  Therefore, will carry only negligible
snowfall amounts in those areas.

The upper trough could linger over Mexico into early next week.
Models diverge on it`s movement so have cloven a path down the
middle.  This entails another cold front moving into the area
Sunday, along with a slight chance of mainly rain.  Will keep
temperatures near normal through the rest of the forecast period
and have little to no chance of precipitation after Sunday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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915
FXUS64 KMAF 271115
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
515 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours under partly cloudy
skies. Winds will generally be less than 10 knots.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Mid and high cloud will decrease today as moisture at these levels
heads into an upper ridge axis over the region.  Pretty good heating
will occur across the forecast area with temperatures rising a good
10 to 15 degrees above normal.  The same appears to be on tap
Wednesday as the upper ridge remains over the region, except highs
could be closer to 15 to 20 degrees above normal.  A shortwave
trough will translate southeastward through the northern/central
U.S. Plains Wednesday, and send a cold front south into the area
Thursday.  We should see temperatures closer to seasonal norms,
especially as mid and high cloud begin to increase ahead of a sharp
upper trough off the California coast/Baja Peninsula.

A cool surface high will become entrenched over the forecast area
Thursday night while copious amounts of mid and upper level moisture
stream northeastward over the region ahead of the mentioned ua
trough.  A series of mid level shortwave troughs will move over the
region ahead of the ua trough, and along with the RRQ of a 90kt h25
jet, promote large scale ascent above the cool surface airmass.  No
instability is indicated above the boundary layer, and mid level
lapse rates are paltry, so do not think we will see any convection.
However, rain will become widespread over the area, then last
through the day Friday before tapering off somewhat Friday night/
Saturday morning as the best moisture shifts east of the area.
Models bring precipitable water values to near 1 inch across the
forecast area, which is 2 standard deviations above normal!
Moderate to heavy rainfall could result in 1 to 2 inches amounts in
a few locations, and could lead to minor flooding problems.
Although the air through the atmospheric column may be cold enough
to support some snowfall in the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast
New Mexico Plains Friday and Friday night, think the rainfall rates
will be great enough to overwhelm cooler surface temperatures and
keep readings above freezing.  Therefore, will carry only negligible
snowfall amounts in those areas.

The upper trough could linger over Mexico into early next week.
Models diverge on it`s movement so have cloven a path down the
middle.  This entails another cold front moving into the area
Sunday, along with a slight chance of mainly rain.  Will keep
temperatures near normal through the rest of the forecast period
and have little to no chance of precipitation after Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 71  45  74  44  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              75  45  78  47  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                73  36  74  42  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  77  50  79  50  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           71  48  78  48  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          63  47  65  45  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   70  41  72  41  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   67  35  71  42  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    72  46  75  45  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  71  46  74  45  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    73  35  77  44  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/67

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001
FXUS64 KMAF 270942
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
342 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Mid and high cloud will decrease today as moisture at these levels
heads into an upper ridge axis over the region.  Pretty good heating
will occur across the forecast area with temperatures rising a good
10 to 15 degrees above normal.  The same appears to be on tap
Wednesday as the upper ridge remains over the region, except highs
could be closer to 15 to 20 degrees above normal.  A shortwave
trough will translate southeastward through the northern/central
U.S. Plains Wednesday, and send a cold front south into the area
Thursday.  We should see temperatures closer to seasonal norms,
especially as mid and high cloud begin to increase ahead of a sharp
upper trough off the California coast/Baja Peninsula.

A cool surface high will become entrenched over the forecast area
Thursday night while copious amounts of mid and upper level moisture
stream northeastward over the region ahead of the mentioned ua
trough.  A series of mid level shortwave troughs will move over the
region ahead of the ua trough, and along with the RRQ of a 90kt h25
jet, promote large scale ascent above the cool surface airmass.  No
instability is indicated above the boundary layer, and mid level
lapse rates are paltry, so do not think we will see any convection.
However, rain will become widespread over the area, then last
through the day Friday before tapering off somewhat Friday night/
Saturday morning as the best moisture shifts east of the area.
Models bring precipitable water values to near 1 inch across the
forecast area, which is 2 standard deviations above normal!
Moderate to heavy rainfall could result in 1 to 2 inches amounts in
a few locations, and could lead to minor flooding problems.
Although the air through the atmospheric column may be cold enough
to support some snowfall in the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast
New Mexico Plains Friday and Friday night, think the rainfall rates
will be great enough to overwhelm cooler surface temperatures and
keep readings above freezing.  Therefore, will carry only negligible
snowfall amounts in those areas.

The upper trough could linger over Mexico into early next week.
Models diverge on it`s movement so have cloven a path down the
middle.  This entails another cold front moving into the area
Sunday, along with a slight chance of mainly rain.  Will keep
temperatures near normal through the rest of the forecast period
and have little to no chance of precipitation after Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 71  45  74  44  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              75  45  78  47  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                73  36  74  42  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  77  50  79  50  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           71  48  78  48  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          63  47  65  45  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   70  41  72  41  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   67  35  71  42  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    72  46  75  45  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  71  46  74  45  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    73  35  77  44  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/67

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746
FXUS64 KMAF 270508
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1108 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
No aviation concerns for the next 24 hours with VFR conditions
prevailing. Wly winds today turn more sly after 00Z/Tue, but still
less than 10kts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail across the TAF sites. Light wly winds
thru night.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Above normal temperatures are being seen this afternoon and
westerly upper level flow will continue this trend through
Wednesday. Attention remains focused on an upper level low moving
into northwestern Mexico bringing precipitation to the area
beginning late Thursday. Initially an upper trough moving into the
Central Plains will push a weak cold front south early Thursday,
but it is the upper level low farther west that will provide the
precipitation. Models continue to show a very good chance for rain
starting out west on Friday, centered around Midland Friday night,
with highest rain chances shifting east on Saturday.

The precipitation type remains the biggest uncertainty in this
forecast. The upper low becomes disconnected from the northern
stream westerlies thus is not able to tap into colder air from
Canada. Evaporational cooling will chill the air some but forecast
soundings show it will be a borderline rain/snow/sleet event. The
best chance for wintry precipitation will be in the Guadalupe and
Davis Mountains as well as southeast New Mexico and the
northwestern Permian Basin. Still not expecting much accumulations
due to the marginal temperatures and this system may be much like
our most recent one where most melted upon hitting the ground. The
biggest concern may actually be rainfall amounts as most models
are showing one to two inches of rainfall is possible perhaps
creating minor flooding issues. Rainfall amounts will largely
depend on the progression of the upper low and models are
notoriously bad at progging the movement of cutoff lows along the
U.S./Mexico border. Fortunately there are still several days
before this system impacts our area.

Hennig

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 36  70  44  72  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              37  74  45  75  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                36  70  41  71  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  43  75  48  81  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           41  71  47  76  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          42  59  45  59  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   35  67  42  69  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   38  67  41  67  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    36  72  44  74  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  37  72  45  73  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    34  72  43  75  /   0   0   0   0


&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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852
FXUS64 KMAF 262334
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
534 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail across the TAF sites. Light wly winds
thru night.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Above normal temperatures are being seen this afternoon and
westerly upper level flow will continue this trend through
Wednesday. Attention remains focused on an upper level low moving
into northwestern Mexico bringing precipitation to the area
beginning late Thursday. Initially an upper trough moving into the
Central Plains will push a weak cold front south early Thursday,
but it is the upper level low farther west that will provide the
precipitation. Models continue to show a very good chance for rain
starting out west on Friday, centered around Midland Friday night,
with highest rain chances shifting east on Saturday.

The precipitation type remains the biggest uncertainty in this
forecast. The upper low becomes disconnected from the northern
stream westerlies thus is not able to tap into colder air from
Canada. Evaporational cooling will chill the air some but forecast
soundings show it will be a borderline rain/snow/sleet event. The
best chance for wintry precipitation will be in the Guadalupe and
Davis Mountains as well as southeast New Mexico and the
northwestern Permian Basin. Still not expecting much accumulations
due to the marginal temperatures and this system may be much like
our most recent one where most melted upon hitting the ground. The
biggest concern may actually be rainfall amounts as most models
are showing one to two inches of rainfall is possible perhaps
creating minor flooding issues. Rainfall amounts will largely
depend on the progression of the upper low and models are
notoriously bad at progging the movement of cutoff lows along the
U.S./Mexico border. Fortunately there are still several days
before this system impacts our area.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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861
FXUS64 KMAF 262049
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
249 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Above normal temperatures are being seen this afternoon and
westerly upper level flow will continue this trend through
Wednesday. Attention remains focused on an upper level low moving
into northwestern Mexico bringing precipitation to the area
beginning late Thursday. Initially an upper trough moving into the
Central Plains will push a weak cold front south early Thursday,
but it is the upper level low farther west that will provide the
precipitation. Models continue to show a very good chance for rain
starting out west on Friday, centered around Midland Friday night,
with highest rain chances shifting east on Saturday.

The precipitation type remains the biggest uncertainty in this
forecast. The upper low becomes disconnected from the northern
stream westerlies thus is not able to tap into colder air from
Canada. Evaporational cooling will chill the air some but forecast
soundings show it will be a borderline rain/snow/sleet event. The
best chance for wintry precipitation will be in the Guadalupe and
Davis Mountains as well as southeast New Mexico and the
northwestern Permian Basin. Still not expecting much accumulations
due to the marginal temperatures and this system may be much like
our most recent one where most melted upon hitting the ground. The
biggest concern may actually be rainfall amounts as most models
are showing one to two inches of rainfall is possible perhaps
creating minor flooding issues. Rainfall amounts will largely
depend on the progression of the upper low and models are
notoriously bad at progging the movement of cutoff lows along the
U.S./Mexico border. Fortunately there are still several days
before this system impacts our area.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 36  70  44  72  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              37  74  45  75  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                36  70  41  71  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  43  75  48  81  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           41  71  47  76  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          42  59  45  59  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   35  67  42  69  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   38  67  41  67  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    36  72  44  74  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  37  72  45  73  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    34  72  43  75  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

72/10

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310
FXUS64 KMAF 261742
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1142 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with copious amounts of high clouds expected. Wind will be
light and generally out of the west.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Sfc obs show another relatively warm night shaping up across West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico, in generally northwest flow, aided
by a fetch of subtropical moisture streaming a veil of high clouds
across the region in zonal flow aloft.  WV imagery shows the upper
cut-off low west of Baja, while to the east, an upper trough is
exiting the MS Valley.  These two features have sandwiched a
highly-amped ridge over the area.  Baja ridge is still forecast to
shear out and rejoin the flow over the next few days, flattening the
ridge and sending it east.  As the trough moves north, isolated
-SHRA can`t be ruled out this evening over the Presidio Valley.
Otherwise, the ridge, combined w/a light westerly downslope flow
component, will result in continued unseasonably warm temperatures
over the next few days.  By Wednesday afternoon, it`ll feel more
light mid May around here than late January, as afternoon highs top
out in the 70s.

Unfortunately, the shearing Baja trough is forecast to top the
ridge, and join forces w/a shortwave diving out of Canada, dropping
a cold front into the FA late Wednesday night.  This will knock
temps back down Thursday afternoon, although still abv normal.  As
this is taking place, another upper trough will reach the west
coast, and is forecast to close off over SoCal/SW AZ sometime
Friday.  This will set up West Texas/SE NM for a wet weekend, w/a
chance of -SHRA beginning as soon as Thursday night, exacerbated by
isentropic upglide beginning Friday, as the trough begins sending
shortwaves into the area in SW flow aloft.  A secondary cold front
is due in Friday night/Saturday to help things along, although the
GFS is a little faster w/fropa than the ECMWF.  Mid/hi-lvl moisture
from the west and easterly low-lvl moisture will saturate the column
by 00Z Saturday, w/the GFS developing PWATs over 1" by then...over 3
std devs abv normal and abv the 99th percentile for January.  Thus,
the potential for abundant rainfall persists.  Precip should remain
liquid Thu night/Fri, as the secondary front arrives Friday night at
the earliest.  Attm, forecast soundings for Fri night/Sat suggest a
mix will be possible only in the N and NW fringes of the FA.
Saturday night could see a changeover to -SN most areas, but
soundings dry out considerably from 00Z-12Z Sun, so accumulations
should be minimal.  Precip continues tapering off Sunday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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382
FXUS64 KMAF 261106
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
502 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours.  Light and
somewhat variable winds are expected with mid and high level clouds
over the area.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Sfc obs show another relatively warm night shaping up across West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico, in generally northwest flow, aided
by a fetch of subtropical moisture streaming a veil of high clouds
across the region in zonal flow aloft.  WV imagery shows the upper
cut-off low west of Baja, while to the east, an upper trough is
exiting the MS Valley.  These two features have sandwiched a
highly-amped ridge over the area.  Baja ridge is still forecast to
shear out and rejoin the flow over the next few days, flattening the
ridge and sending it east.  As the trough moves north, isolated
-SHRA can`t be ruled out this evening over the Presidio Valley.
Otherwise, the ridge, combined w/a light westerly downslope flow
component, will result in continued unseasonably warm temperatures
over the next few days.  By Wednesday afternoon, it`ll feel more
light mid May around here than late January, as afternoon highs top
out in the 70s.

Unfortunately, the shearing Baja trough is forecast to top the
ridge, and join forces w/a shortwave diving out of Canada, dropping
a cold front into the FA late Wednesday night.  This will knock
temps back down Thursday afternoon, although still abv normal.  As
this is taking place, another upper trough will reach the west
coast, and is forecast to close off over SoCal/SW AZ sometime
Friday.  This will set up West Texas/SE NM for a wet weekend, w/a
chance of -SHRA beginning as soon as Thursday night, exacerbated by
isentropic upglide beginning Friday, as the trough begins sending
shortwaves into the area in SW flow aloft.  A secondary cold front
is due in Friday night/Saturday to help things along, although the
GFS is a little faster w/fropa than the ECMWF.  Mid/hi-lvl moisture
from the west and easterly low-lvl moisture will saturate the column
by 00Z Saturday, w/the GFS developing PWATs over 1" by then...over 3
std devs abv normal and abv the 99th percentile for January.  Thus,
the potential for abundant rainfall persists.  Precip should remain
liquid Thu night/Fri, as the secondary front arrives Friday night at
the earliest.  Attm, forecast soundings for Fri night/Sat suggest a
mix will be possible only in the N and NW fringes of the FA.
Saturday night could see a changeover to -SN most areas, but
soundings dry out considerably from 00Z-12Z Sun, so accumulations
should be minimal.  Precip continues tapering off Sunday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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756
FXUS64 KMAF 261000
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
400 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Sfc obs show another relatively warm night shaping up across West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico, in generally northwest flow, aided
by a fetch of subtropical moisture streaming a veil of high clouds
across the region in zonal flow aloft.  WV imagery shows the upper
cut-off low west of Baja, while to the east, an upper trough is
exiting the MS Valley.  These two features have sandwiched a
highly-amped ridge over the area.  Baja ridge is still forecast to
shear out and rejoin the flow over the next few days, flattening the
ridge and sending it east.  As the trough moves north, isolated
-SHRA can`t be ruled out this evening over the Presidio Valley.
Otherwise, the ridge, combined w/a light westerly downslope flow
component, will result in continued unseasonably warm temperatures
over the next few days.  By Wednesday afternoon, it`ll feel more
light mid May around here than late January, as afternoon highs top
out in the 70s.

Unfortunately, the shearing Baja trough is forecast to top the
ridge, and join forces w/a shortwave diving out of Canada, dropping
a cold front into the FA late Wednesday night.  This will knock
temps back down Thursday afternoon, although still abv normal.  As
this is taking place, another upper trough will reach the west
coast, and is forecast to close off over SoCal/SW AZ sometime
Friday.  This will set up West Texas/SE NM for a wet weekend, w/a
chance of -SHRA beginning as soon as Thursday night, exacerbated by
isentropic upglide beginning Friday, as the trough begins sending
shortwaves into the area in SW flow aloft.  A secondary cold front
is due in Friday night/Saturday to help things along, although the
GFS is a little faster w/fropa than the ECMWF.  Mid/hi-lvl moisture
from the west and easterly low-lvl moisture will saturate the column
by 00Z Saturday, w/the GFS developing PWATs over 1" by then...over 3
std devs abv normal and abv the 99th percentile for January.  Thus,
the potential for abundant rainfall persists.  Precip should remain
liquid Thu night/Fri, as the secondary front arrives Friday night at
the earliest.  Attm, forecast soundings for Fri night/Sat suggest a
mix will be possible only in the N and NW fringes of the FA.
Saturday night could see a changeover to -SN most areas, but
soundings dry out considerably from 00Z-12Z Sun, so accumulations
should be minimal.  Precip continues tapering off Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 69  37  72  43  /   0  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              72  37  73  44  /   0  10   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                64  36  68  42  /   0  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  69  45  73  50  /   0  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           68  40  74  47  /   0  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          63  46  65  49  /   0  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   66  36  71  43  /   0  10   0   0
MARFA TX                   63  35  68  38  /   0  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    69  38  71  44  /   0  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  68  38  71  44  /   0  10   0   0
WINK TX                    66  34  72  43  /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

80/44

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411
FXUS64 KMAF 260507
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1106 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

No aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions will
prevail at all terminals.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A cold front moved through the area this morning but you wouldn`t
know it looking at the temperatures. Highs today will actually be
warmer than they were yesterday with a northerly wind shift the
only evidence of the frontal passage. The upper pattern early this
week will feature weak ridging/westerly flow which will continue
above normal highs into Wednesday.

Thursday is when we will see a major shift in the weather pattern
as an upper low digs into southern California creating a split jet
over the western CONUS. The northern stream will edge up into
western Canada and drop into the Central Plains pushing a cold
front into Texas on Thursday. This will provide some cooling, but
the southern stream will be the one to watch as it advects
moisture off the Pacific and brings a return of precipitation. The
GFS continues to be the most aggressive in not only the areal
extent of the rainfall, but also in duration and QPF though the
other models are definitely trending towards the wetter solution.
Have upped PoPs to "likely" for much of the area Friday night into
Saturday which is certainly a rarity for so far out in the
forecast but model consensus provides more confidence than usual
in this wet forecast. Precipitation is expected to start Thursday
night and continue all the way into Sunday thanks to a very slow
moving or perhaps even stationary upper low to our west.

The biggest uncertainty in this forecast is temperatures, as they
will be very close to the rain/sleet/snow cutoff. The split nature
of the upper pattern will prevent very cold air from filtering
south with 850-700mb temperatures anywhere from +2C to -3C. Much
of the cooling may come from evaporational processes which are
difficult to forecast a week out. Therefore will start the
p-type as rain into Friday mixing some snow in by Saturday and
Sunday. Since temperatures are so marginal for wintry precip, it
does not appear at this time there will be much opportunity for
significant accumulations but this will have to be closely
monitored over the next several days.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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272
FXUS64 KMAF 252321
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
521 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015


.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
No aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions will
prevail at all terminals with light/variable winds and mostly clear
skies in place.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A cold front moved through the area this morning but you wouldn`t
know it looking at the temperatures. Highs today will actually be
warmer than they were yesterday with a northerly wind shift the
only evidence of the frontal passage. The upper pattern early this
week will feature weak ridging/westerly flow which will continue
above normal highs into Wednesday.

Thursday is when we will see a major shift in the weather pattern
as an upper low digs into southern California creating a split jet
over the western CONUS. The northern stream will edge up into
western Canada and drop into the Central Plains pushing a cold
front into Texas on Thursday. This will provide some cooling, but
the southern stream will be the one to watch as it advects
moisture off the Pacific and brings a return of precipitation. The
GFS continues to be the most aggressive in not only the areal
extent of the rainfall, but also in duration and QPF though the
other models are definitely trending towards the wetter solution.
Have upped PoPs to "likely" for much of the area Friday night into
Saturday which is certainly a rarity for so far out in the
forecast but model consensus provides more confidence than usual
in this wet forecast. Precipitation is expected to start Thursday
night and continue all the way into Sunday thanks to a very slow
moving or perhaps even stationary upper low to our west.

The biggest uncertainty in this forecast is temperatures, as they
will be very close to the rain/sleet/snow cutoff. The split nature
of the upper pattern will prevent very cold air from filtering
south with 850-700mb temperatures anywhere from +2C to -3C. Much
of the cooling may come from evaporational processes which are
difficult to forecast a week out. Therefore will start the
p-type as rain into Friday mixing some snow in by Saturday and
Sunday. Since temperatures are so marginal for wintry precip, it
does not appear at this time there will be much opportunity for
significant accumulations but this will have to be closely
monitored over the next several days.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27

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090
FXUS64 KMAF 252034
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
234 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A cold front moved through the area this morning but you wouldn`t
know it looking at the temperatures. Highs today will actually be
warmer than they were yesterday with a northerly wind shift the
only evidence of the frontal passage. The upper pattern early this
week will feature weak ridging/westerly flow which will continue
above normal highs into Wednesday.

Thursday is when we will see a major shift in the weather pattern
as an upper low digs into southern California creating a split jet
over the western CONUS. The northern stream will edge up into
western Canada and drop into the Central Plains pushing a cold
front into Texas on Thursday. This will provide some cooling, but
the southern stream will be the one to watch as it advects
moisture off the Pacific and brings a return of precipitation. The
GFS continues to be the most aggressive in not only the areal
extent of the rainfall, but also in duration and QPF though the
other models are definitely trending towards the wetter solution.
Have upped PoPs to "likely" for much of the area Friday night into
Saturday which is certainly a rarity for so far out in the
forecast but model consensus provides more confidence than usual
in this wet forecast. Precipitation is expected to start Thursday
night and continue all the way into Sunday thanks to a very slow
moving or perhaps even stationary upper low to our west.

The biggest uncertainty in this forecast is temperatures, as they
will be very close to the rain/sleet/snow cutoff. The split nature
of the upper pattern will prevent very cold air from filtering
south with 850-700mb temperatures anywhere from +2C to -3C. Much
of the cooling may come from evaporational processes which are
difficult to forecast a week out. Therefore will start the
p-type as rain into Friday mixing some snow in by Saturday and
Sunday. Since temperatures are so marginal for wintry precip, it
does not appear at this time there will be much opportunity for
significant accumulations but this will have to be closely
monitored over the next several days.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 34  69  37  70  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              35  71  38  73  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                30  64  36  73  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  39  70  42  76  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           36  69  41  75  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          35  62  41  61  /   0   0  10  10
HOBBS NM                   32  68  36  69  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   29  65  37  65  /   0   0  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    34  69  37  71  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  35  69  38  71  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    32  68  35  74  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29/10

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608
FXUS64 KMAF 251728
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1128 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions will continue with northerly winds diminishing
through the day.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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369
FXUS64 KMAF 251057
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
450 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  Winds will
continue shifting to the north this morning then to the northeast
this afternoon as a cold front comes through the area. Winds will
become light and variable this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Sfc obs show a weak cold front to the north of the region, w/buffer
soundings bringing fropa to KMAF at around 10Z.  Otherwise, a
relatively warm night is on tap in modest westerly flow under a
fetch of high clouds streaming in from the west.  Further west, WV
imagery shows a massive cut-off low separated from upper-lvl flow
and parked off the coast of Baja.  In between this trough and NW
flow to the east, models develop a highly-amped ridge over West
Texas/Southeast New Mexico over the next few days.  This feature is
forecast to build east and flatten into midweek as the upper trough
shears out as it moves NE back into the jetstream.  As the trough
shears, it is forecast to send a shortwave thru the western zones
Monday night, for a slight chance of showers there.  Upper ridging
will allow for a brief respite from the cold temps of late.  By
Tuesday, temps will top out in the low 70s for much of the region,
making it feel more like early May than late January.

Unfortunately, this warmer wx comes to an end late Wednesday night
as the aforementioned upper trough dives into the MS Valley, and
drops a cold front into the region Thursday.  Temps should still
stay abv-normal Thursday afternoon, but drop blo normal Friday and
Saturday.  During this time, another trough will separate from the
flow off the west coast near Baja.  This feature is a little further
NE than the current one, and likely to result in increased chances
of precip for the FA as it sends shortwaves thru SW flow aloft
beginning late Thursday.  Both the GFS and ECMWF are similar
w/placement of the trough off the coast of Baja, while the DGEX
wants to take it to srn CA/AZ.  Models bring in considerable
mid/hi-lvl moisture from the SW, while return flow pumps sfc
dewpoints to near 40F by Friday night.  PWATs at KMAF increase to
over 1" by 00Z Saturday...over 3 std devs abv normal and abv the
99th percentile, so the potential to score some decent rainfall
will be there.  Attm, forecast soundings suggest precip will fall as
rain, as lower lvls stay abv freezing deep enough to melt any ice in
the column.  The only exception might be the extreme N/NW, which may
see a mix Friday night.  Chances for frozen precip look better
Saturday night, but that is beyond this forecast.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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073
FXUS64 KMAF 251000
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
400 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Sfc obs show a weak cold front to the north of the region, w/buffer
soundings bringing fropa to KMAF at around 10Z.  Otherwise, a
relatively warm night is on tap in modest westerly flow under a
fetch of high clouds streaming in from the west.  Further west, WV
imagery shows a massive cut-off low separated from upper-lvl flow
and parked off the coast of Baja.  In between this trough and NW
flow to the east, models develop a highly-amped ridge over West
Texas/Southeast New Mexico over the next few days.  This feature is
forecast to build east and flatten into midweek as the upper trough
shears out as it moves NE back into the jetstream.  As the trough
shears, it is forecast to send a shortwave thru the western zones
Monday night, for a slight chance of showers there.  Upper ridging
will allow for a brief respite from the cold temps of late.  By
Tuesday, temps will top out in the low 70s for much of the region,
making it feel more like early May than late January.

Unfortunately, this warmer ex comes to an end late Wednesday night
as the aforementioned upper trough dives into the MS Valley, and
drops a cold front into the region Thursday.  Temps should still
stay abv-normal Thursday afternoon, but drop blo normal Friday and
Saturday.  During this time, another trough will separate from the
flow off the west coast near Baja.  This feature is a little further
NE than the current one, and likely to result in increased chances
of precip for the FA as it sends shortwaves thru SW flow aloft
beginning late Thursday.  Both the GFS and ECMWF are similar
w/placement of the trough off the coast of Baja, while the DGEX
wants to take it to srn CA/AZ.  Models bring in considerable
mid/hi-lvl moisture from the SW, while return flow pumps sfc
dewpoints to near 40F by Friday night.  PWATs at KMAF increase to
over 1" by 00Z Saturday...over 3 std devs abv normal and abv the
99th percentile, so the potential to score some decent rainfall
will be there.  Attm, forecast soundings suggest precip will fall as
rain, as lower lvls stay abv freezing deep enough to melt any ice in
the column.  The only exception might be the extreme N/NW, which may
see a mix Friday night.  Chances for frozen precip look better
Saturday night, but that is beyond this forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 60  33  68  38  /   0   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              63  34  69  37  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                61  29  65  42  /   0   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  65  40  66  46  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           57  36  70  43  /   0   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          53  38  61  44  /   0   0   0  20
HOBBS NM                   59  32  66  38  /   0   0   0  10
MARFA TX                   55  24  62  35  /   0   0   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    63  34  67  38  /   0   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  62  34  67  39  /   0   0   0  10
WINK TX                    62  29  65  38  /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

80/44

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299
FXUS64 KMAF 251000
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
400 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Sfc obs show a weak cold front to the north of the region, w/buffer
soundings bringing fropa to KMAF at around 10Z.  Otherwise, a
relatively warm night is on tap in modest westerly flow under a
fetch of high clouds streaming in from the west.  Further west, WV
imagery shows a massive cut-off low separated from upper-lvl flow
and parked off the coast of Baja.  In between this trough and NW
flow to the east, models develop a highly-amped ridge over West
Texas/Southeast New Mexico over the next few days.  This feature is
forecast to build east and flatten into midweek as the upper trough
shears out as it moves NE back into the jetstream.  As the trough
shears, it is forecast to send a shortwave thru the western zones
Monday night, for a slight chance of showers there.  Upper ridging
will allow for a brief respite from the cold temps of late.  By
Tuesday, temps will top out in the low 70s for much of the region,
making it feel more like early May than late January.

Unfortunately, this warmer wx comes to an end late Wednesday night
as the aforementioned upper trough dives into the MS Valley, and
drops a cold front into the region Thursday.  Temps should still
stay abv-normal Thursday afternoon, but drop blo normal Friday and
Saturday.  During this time, another trough will separate from the
flow off the west coast near Baja.  This feature is a little further
NE than the current one, and likely to result in increased chances
of precip for the FA as it sends shortwaves thru SW flow aloft
beginning late Thursday.  Both the GFS and ECMWF are similar
w/placement of the trough off the coast of Baja, while the DGEX
wants to take it to srn CA/AZ.  Models bring in considerable
mid/hi-lvl moisture from the SW, while return flow pumps sfc
dewpoints to near 40F by Friday night.  PWATs at KMAF increase to
over 1" by 00Z Saturday...over 3 std devs abv normal and abv the
99th percentile, so the potential to score some decent rainfall
will be there.  Attm, forecast soundings suggest precip will fall as
rain, as lower lvls stay abv freezing deep enough to melt any ice in
the column.  The only exception might be the extreme N/NW, which may
see a mix Friday night.  Chances for frozen precip look better
Saturday night, but that is beyond this forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 60  33  68  38  /   0   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              63  34  69  37  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                61  29  65  42  /   0   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  65  40  66  46  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           57  36  70  43  /   0   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          53  38  61  44  /   0   0   0  20
HOBBS NM                   59  32  66  38  /   0   0   0  10
MARFA TX                   55  24  62  35  /   0   0   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    63  34  67  38  /   0   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  62  34  67  39  /   0   0   0  10
WINK TX                    62  29  65  38  /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

80/44

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279
FXUS64 KMAF 250514
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1113 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
will prevail at all terminals. Light westerly winds will begin to
veer to the north through the morning as a cold front moves through
the region.  Significant wind speeds are not expected behind the
front.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
It has turned out to be a beautiful day with mostly clear skies
and temperatures around normal. Northwesterly upper flow will
bring a cold front into the area tomorrow, but there will be
little if any cold air behind it so expect temperatures to be much
like today. An upper ridge will move across west Texas Monday and
break down leaving westerly upper flow Tuesday and Wednesday
sending temperatures above normal. A weak trough Monday night will
only bring a slight chance for rain showers for areas west of the
Pecos River.

The GFS has been very consistent and continues to show a good
chance for precipitation late next week. The ECMWF is trending
towards the GFS and now all models are developing an upper level
low near the Baja of Mexico with a highly amplified ridge laying
over the Pacific Northwest. This splits the jet into two streams
but a particularly strong southern stream will advect moisture out
of the Pacific and into New Mexico and Texas. Precipitation would
develop Thursday night and continue through the weekend. The GFS
remains most aggressive with QPF amounts though all models are
showing the areal coverage to be extensive. It should be noted
that PoPs are quite high for Day 6/7 in the forecast with 40-50
percent across most of the region.

The northern stream jet will bring a cold front on Thursday and
modestly cooler temperatures. Most of the cooling may actually
come from cloud cover and precipitation thus the precipitation
type will be rain. The upper low only slowly moves east across
northern Mexico so southwest flow ahead of the low will provide
warm air advection and keep the p-type rain through Saturday and
the end of the forecast period. Sunday (just outside of this
forecast), another front may arrive with colder air and the chance
for the rain to change to a wintry precip type so this system will
need to be closely monitored.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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757
FXUS64 KMAF 242323
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
523 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2015


.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
will prevail at all terminals. Light westerly winds continue through
midnight then veer to the north as a cold front enters the region
early Sunday. Wind speeds will generally remain around 10kt for much
of the morning then decrease Sunday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
It has turned out to be a beautiful day with mostly clear skies
and temperatures around normal. Northwesterly upper flow will
bring a cold front into the area tomorrow, but there will be
little if any cold air behind it so expect temperatures to be much
like today. An upper ridge will move across west Texas Monday and
break down leaving westerly upper flow Tuesday and Wednesday
sending temperatures above normal. A weak trough Monday night will
only bring a slight chance for rain showers for areas west of the
Pecos River.

The GFS has been very consistent and continues to show a good
chance for precipitation late next week. The ECMWF is trending
towards the GFS and now all models are developing an upper level
low near the Baja of Mexico with a highly amplified ridge laying
over the Pacific Northwest. This splits the jet into two streams
but a particularly strong southern stream will advect moisture out
of the Pacific and into New Mexico and Texas. Precipitation would
develop Thursday night and continue through the weekend. The GFS
remains most aggressive with QPF amounts though all models are
showing the areal coverage to be extensive. It should be noted
that PoPs are quite high for Day 6/7 in the forecast with 40-50
percent across most of the region.

The northern stream jet will bring a cold front on Thursday and
modestly cooler temperatures. Most of the cooling may actually
come from cloud cover and precipitation thus the precipitation
type will be rain. The upper low only slowly moves east across
northern Mexico so southwest flow ahead of the low will provide
warm air advection and keep the p-type rain through Saturday and
the end of the forecast period. Sunday (just outside of this
forecast), another front may arrive with colder air and the chance
for the rain to change to a wintry precip type so this system will
need to be closely monitored.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27

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386
FXUS64 KMAF 242051
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
251 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
It has turned out to be a beautiful day with mostly clear skies
and temperatures around normal. Northwesterly upper flow will
bring a cold front into the area tomorrow, but there will be
little if any cold air behind it so expect temperatures to be much
like today. An upper ridge will move across west Texas Monday and
break down leaving westerly upper flow Tuesday and Wednesday
sending temperatures above normal. A weak trough Monday night will
only bring a slight chance for rain showers for areas west of the
Pecos River.

The GFS has been very consistent and continues to show a good
chance for precipitation late next week. The ECMWF is trending
towards the GFS and now all models are developing an upper level
low near the Baja of Mexico with a highly amplified ridge laying
over the Pacific Northwest. This splits the jet into two streams
but a particularly strong southern stream will advect moisture out
of the Pacific and into New Mexico and Texas. Precipitation would
develop Thursday night and continue through the weekend. The GFS
remains most aggressive with QPF amounts though all models are
showing the areal coverage to be extensive. It should be noted
that PoPs are quite high for Day 6/7 in the forecast with 40-50
percent across most of the region.

The northern stream jet will bring a cold front on Thursday and
modestly cooler temperatures. Most of the cooling may actually
come from cloud cover and precipitation thus the precipitation
type will be rain. The upper low only slowly moves east across
northern Mexico so southwest flow ahead of the low will provide
warm air advection and keep the p-type rain through Saturday and
the end of the forecast period. Sunday (just outside of this
forecast), another front may arrive with colder air and the chance
for the rain to change to a wintry precip type so this system will
need to be closely monitored.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 33  59  31  67  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              35  61  33  69  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                30  56  29  64  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  36  63  36  68  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           35  59  34  69  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          33  52  33  61  /   0   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                   30  56  30  65  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   27  56  27  63  /   0   0   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    33  60  32  67  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  34  60  32  67  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    31  61  30  68  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29/10

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492
FXUS64 KMAF 241716
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1116 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions will prevail with light northwest winds and a few
high clouds.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A broad upper trough is over the eastern conus and Upper Midwest
with a closed low strengthening off the coast of Mexico south of
California this morning.  Temperatures will warm up into the 50s
across most of the area this afternoon with light westerly winds.
An even greater warm up is expected on Sunday with temperatures in
the 60s for most of the area and remaining warm through Thursday.
Some locations across the Western Low Rolling Plains, eastern
Permian Basin, and Lower Trans Pecos may see high temperatures in
the 70s beginning on Monday. The upper pattern is expected to not
change much with an upper trough remaining over the eastern conus
and upper ridging over the western half of the conus.  The
previously mentioned closed low will allow for a slight chance of
rain Monday afternoon through Monday night for mainly locations
along and west of the Upper Trans Pecos as mid-level moisture from
this low gets pulled over the region. Models show this closed low
becoming embedded within the upper ridge and moving northward and
weakening by Tuesday afternoon.  An upper trough moving over the
Upper Midwest will send a cold front through the area on Thursday
cooling temperatures into the lower 60s depending on the timing of
the front.

Beginning next Thursday/Friday, the models show another closed low
developing just off the coast of California and moving eastward
heading into next weekend.  Both the GFS and ECMWF are showing
precipitation beginning on Thursday and lasting through next weekend
over the CWA associated with this low.  The precipitation appears to
be scattered across the area on Friday resulting in even cooler
temperatures than those on Thursday. An upper trough moving over the
Northern Plains will send a strong cold front southward into the
area next Saturday.  The precipitation across the area looks to be
mostly in the form of rain until this cold front passes through the
region.  After the frontal passage, wintry precipitation is possible
beginning Saturday night.  Since this is still a week away, will
continue to monitor this system as it develops and moves closer.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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830
FXUS64 KMAF 241031
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
431 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Sfc winds will
generally back slightly, and a few high clouds will be possible.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A broad upper trough is over the eastern conus and Upper Midwest
with a closed low strengthening off the coast of Mexico south of
California this morning.  Temperatures will warm up into the 50s
across most of the area this afternoon with light westerly winds.
An even greater warm up is expected on Sunday with temperatures in
the 60s for most of the area and remaining warm through Thursday.
Some locations across the Western Low Rolling Plains, eastern
Permian Basin, and Lower Trans Pecos may see high temperatures in
the 70s beginning on Monday. The upper pattern is expected to not
change much with an upper trough remaining over the eastern conus
and upper ridging over the western half of the conus.  The
previously mentioned closed low will allow for a slight chance of
rain Monday afternoon through Monday night for mainly locations
along and west of the Upper Trans Pecos as mid-level moisture from
this low gets pulled over the region. Models show this closed low
becoming embedded within the upper ridge and moving northward and
weakening by Tuesday afternoon.  An upper trough moving over the
Upper Midwest will send a cold front through the area on Thursday
cooling temperatures into the lower 60s depending on the timing of
the front.

Beginning next Thursday/Friday, the models show another closed low
developing just off the coast of California and moving eastward
heading into next weekend.  Both the GFS and ECMWF are showing
precipitation beginning on Thursday and lasting through next weekend
over the CWA associated with this low.  The precipitation appears to
be scattered across the area on Friday resulting in even cooler
temperatures than those on Thursday. An upper trough moving over the
Northern Plains will send a strong cold front southward into the
area next Saturday.  The precipitation across the area looks to be
mostly in the form of rain until this cold front passes through the
region.  After the frontal passage, wintry precipitation is possible
beginning Saturday night.  Since this is still a week away, will
continue to monitor this system as it develops and moves closer.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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751
FXUS64 KMAF 241019
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
417 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A broad upper trough is over the eastern conus and Upper Midwest
with a closed low strengthening off the coast of Mexico south of
California this morning.  Temperatures will warm up into the 50s
across most of the area this afternoon with light westerly winds.
An even greater warm up is expected on Sunday with temperatures in
the 60s for most of the area and remaining warm through Thursday.
Some locations across the Western Low Rolling Plains, eastern
Permian Basin, and Lower Trans Pecos may see high temperatures in
the 70s beginning on Monday. The upper pattern is expected to not
change much with an upper trough remaining over the eastern conus
and upper ridging over the western half of the conus.  The
previously mentioned closed low will allow for a slight chance of
rain Monday afternoon through Monday night for mainly locations
along and west of the Upper Trans Pecos as mid-level moisture from
this low gets pulled over the region. Models show this closed low
becoming embedded within the upper ridge and moving northward and
weakening by Tuesday afternoon.  An upper trough moving over the
Upper Midwest will send a cold front through the area on Thursday
cooling temperatures into the lower 60s depending on the timing of
the front.

Beginning next Thursday/Friday, the models show another closed low
developing just off the coast of California and moving eastward
heading into next weekend.  Both the GFS and ECMWF are showing
precipitation beginning on Thursday and lasting through next weekend
over the CWA associated with this low.  The precipitation appears to
be scattered across the area on Friday resulting in even cooler
temperatures than those on Thursday. An upper trough moving over the
Northern Plains will send a strong cold front southward into the
area next Saturday.  The precipitation across the area looks to be
mostly in the form of rain until this cold front passes through the
region.  After the frontal passage, wintry precipitation is possible
beginning Saturday night.  Since this is still a week away, will
continue to monitor this system as it develops and moves closer.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 54  29  62  34  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              56  32  64  35  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                54  27  61  29  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  60  35  67  38  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           56  33  65  38  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          50  34  56  37  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   53  26  61  30  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   53  21  62  30  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    56  31  65  35  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  55  31  63  35  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    56  29  64  33  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/80

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973
FXUS64 KMAF 240523
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1123 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

No aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions will
persist at all terminals with light NW winds and mostly clear skies
in place.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Visible satellite images from this morning showed nicely where
snow fell yesterday and overnight, which was much of west Texas
and southeast New Mexico. However the latest images show most snow
is melted and the heaviest snow fell in the higher elevations west
of the Pecos River and northern Lea County. We were fortunate
road conditions overall were not too bad though a sudden drop into
the mid 20s in the Midland/Odessa area around sunrise caused roads
to briefly become very slick.

The upper trough that caused the snow is moving off to the east
with the upper pattern developing into a Rex block (upper high
situated north of an upper low) by the weekend. This will split
the westerlies into a southern and northern stream with the south
plains being the convergence point of these two jets. We will
initially be under the influence of the northern stream which will
bring clear skies and above normal temperatures through the middle
of next week. A disturbance in the southern stream will approach the
area early next week but will weaken as it moves into a ridge and
only bring a slight chance of showers west of the Pecos.

The block briefly breaks down mid week but becomes reestablished
by next weekend. The difference with this second blocking pattern
is that current models are indicating the southern stream will be
stronger and exert more influence over our weather. This would
advect moisture and instability across northern Mexico and into
Texas and New Mexico by the end of next week. The GFS is the
wettest model by far and may be too wet given a weak upper ridge
centered right over our CWA so have only introduced a slight
chance for showers at the very end of the forecast. The GFS is not
only wettest, but it is the coldest model showing the northern
stream bringing cold air down south interacting with the southern
stream for another possibility of wintry precip next weekend. This
however is after the valid period of this forecast so there is
plenty of time to monitor this next potential system.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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112
FXUS64 KMAF 232316
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
516 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2015


.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
No aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions will
prevail at all terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Visible satellite images from this morning showed nicely where
snow fell yesterday and overnight, which was much of west Texas
and southeast New Mexico. However the latest images show most snow
is melted and the heaviest snow fell in the higher elevations west
of the Pecos River and northern Lea County. We were fortunate
road conditions overall were not too bad though a sudden drop into
the mid 20s in the Midland/Odessa area around sunrise caused roads
to briefly become very slick.

The upper trough that caused the snow is moving off to the east
with the upper pattern developing into a Rex block (upper high
situated north of an upper low) by the weekend. This will split
the westerlies into a southern and northern stream with the south
plains being the convergence point of these two jets. We will
initially be under the influence of the northern stream which will
bring clear skies and above normal temperatures through the middle
of next week. A disturbance in the southern stream will approach the
area early next week but will weaken as it moves into a ridge and
only bring a slight chance of showers west of the Pecos.

The block briefly breaks down mid week but becomes reestablished
by next weekend. The difference with this second blocking pattern
is that current models are indicating the southern stream will be
stronger and exert more influence over our weather. This would
advect moisture and instability across northern Mexico and into
Texas and New Mexico by the end of next week. The GFS is the
wettest model by far and may be too wet given a weak upper ridge
centered right over our CWA so have only introduced a slight
chance for showers at the very end of the forecast. The GFS is not
only wettest, but it is the coldest model showing the northern
stream bringing cold air down south interacting with the southern
stream for another possibility of wintry precip next weekend. This
however is after the valid period of this forecast so there is
plenty of time to monitor this next potential system.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27

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800
FXUS64 KMAF 232048
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
248 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Visible satellite images from this morning showed nicely where
snow fell yesterday and overnight, which was much of west Texas
and southeast New Mexico. However the latest images show most snow
is melted and the heaviest snow fell in the higher elevations west
of the Pecos River and northern Lea County. We were fortunate
road conditions overall were not too bad though a sudden drop into
the mid 20s in the Midland/Odessa area around sunrise caused roads
to briefly become very slick.

The upper trough that caused the snow is moving off to the east
with the upper pattern developing into a Rex block (upper high
situated north of an upper low) by the weekend. This will split
the westerlies into a southern and northern stream with the south
plains being the convergence point of these two jets. We will
initially be under the influence of the northern stream which will
bring clear skies and above normal temperatures through the middle
of next week. A disturbance in the southern stream will approach the
area early next week but will weaken as it moves into a ridge and
only bring a slight chance of showers west of the Pecos.

The block briefly breaks down mid week but becomes reestablished
by next weekend. The difference with this second blocking pattern
is that current models are indicating the southern stream will be
stronger and exert more influence over our weather. This would
advect moisture and instability across northern Mexico and into
Texas and New Mexico by the end of next week. The GFS is the
wettest model by far and may be too wet given a weak upper ridge
centered right over our CWA so have only introduced a slight
chance for showers at the very end of the forecast. The GFS is not
only wettest, but it is the coldest model showing the northern
stream bringing cold air down south interacting with the southern
stream for another possibility of wintry precip next weekend. This
however is after the valid period of this forecast so there is
plenty of time to monitor this next potential system.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 26  54  29  63  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              27  56  31  64  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                24  54  28  60  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  27  60  34  68  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           27  56  32  63  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          25  51  31  57  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   23  53  28  61  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   19  53  27  61  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    26  55  30  64  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  26  55  30  63  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    25  57  29  64  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/10

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128
FXUS64 KMAF 231705
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1105 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. Winds will be west
to northwest at generally 5 to 10 knots.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 927 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2015/

UPDATE...
See public discussion below.

DISCUSSION...
Will update the public products to expire the Winter Storm
Warning and Winter Weather Advisory for portions of the Permian
Basin. Tweaked high temperatures downward a few degrees due to
snow cover. Tweaked pop and sky grids.

updated products to be sent shortly.



PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Clouds are clearing from w to e with back edge of low clouds from
MAF to FST, farther w mainly mid clouds. Fog with vsby as low
1-3SM also possible at INK/FST/MAF. By 15Z MAF/FST will have
cleared too leaving VFR thru remainder of the period with SW-NW
10kts or less.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2015/

UPDATE...

Issued update to extend the Winter Storm Warning and Winter
Weather Advisory across eastern and central portions of the Permian
Basin, the Western Low Rolling Plains, and the Lower Trans Pecos
through 9 am CST.

DISCUSSION...

Snow is continuing across eastern and central portions of the
Permian Basin, the Western Low Rolling Plains, and the Trans Pecos
and is slower in moving out of the area than previously
anticipated.  Due to this reason, have decided to extend the
previously mentioned portions of the Winter Storm Warning and Winter
Weather Advisory until 9 am CST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Snow continues to move across the Permian Basin and the Trans Pecos
this morning with temperatures near or below freezing.  Models might
be too quick with moving the precipitation out of the CWA so might
need to extend the eastern part of the Winter Storm Warning and
Winter Weather Advisory for a couple more hours.  The upper trough
that is over the region and contributing to the snow is expected to
move over eastern TX this afternoon.  This will cause the
precipitation to move out of the area today, and surface winds will
become westerly by this afternoon.  The surface high moving to the
east today will allow for temperatures this afternoon to warm up
into the 40s across most of the area.

A broad upper trough will be over the eastern conus and Upper
Midwest with a closed low taking shape off the coast of Mexico south
of California beginning on Saturday.  Temperatures will warm up into
the 50s across most of the area on Saturday.  An even greater warm
up is expected on Sunday with temperatures in the 60s and remaining
this warm through Thursday.  The upper pattern is expected to not
change much with an upper trough remaining over the eastern conus
and upper ridging over the western half of the conus.  Models show
the previously mentioned closed low becoming embedded within the
upper ridge and moving northward and weakening.  This upper pattern
will allow for fairly dry conditions for the area through
Wednesday.  Beginning next Thursday/Friday, the models show another
closed low developing south of California and moving eastward
heading into next weekend.  Depending on the timing of this upper
low, it could be wet across the area next Friday so have increased
pops as a result.  A cold front is also expected to move into the
area next Thursday/Friday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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371
FXUS64 KMAF 231527 AAA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
927 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2015

.UPDATE...
See public discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Will update the public products to expire the Winter Storm
Warning and Winter Weather Advisory for portions of the Permian
Basin. Tweaked high temperatures downward a few degrees due to
snow cover. Tweaked pop and sky grids.

updated products to be sent shortly.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Clouds are clearing from w to e with back edge of low clouds from
MAF to FST, farther w mainly mid clouds. Fog with vsby as low
1-3SM also possible at INK/FST/MAF. By 15Z MAF/FST will have
cleared too leaving VFR thru remainder of the period with SW-NW
10kts or less.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2015/

UPDATE...

Issued update to extend the Winter Storm Warning and Winter
Weather Advisory across eastern and central portions of the Permian
Basin, the Western Low Rolling Plains, and the Lower Trans Pecos
through 9 am CST.

DISCUSSION...

Snow is continuing across eastern and central portions of the
Permian Basin, the Western Low Rolling Plains, and the Trans Pecos
and is slower in moving out of the area than previously
anticipated.  Due to this reason, have decided to extend the
previously mentioned portions of the Winter Storm Warning and Winter
Weather Advisory until 9 am CST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Snow continues to move across the Permian Basin and the Trans Pecos
this morning with temperatures near or below freezing.  Models might
be too quick with moving the precipitation out of the CWA so might
need to extend the eastern part of the Winter Storm Warning and
Winter Weather Advisory for a couple more hours.  The upper trough
that is over the region and contributing to the snow is expected to
move over eastern TX this afternoon.  This will cause the
precipitation to move out of the area today, and surface winds will
become westerly by this afternoon.  The surface high moving to the
east today will allow for temperatures this afternoon to warm up
into the 40s across most of the area.

A broad upper trough will be over the eastern conus and Upper
Midwest with a closed low taking shape off the coast of Mexico south
of California beginning on Saturday.  Temperatures will warm up into
the 50s across most of the area on Saturday.  An even greater warm
up is expected on Sunday with temperatures in the 60s and remaining
this warm through Thursday.  The upper pattern is expected to not
change much with an upper trough remaining over the eastern conus
and upper ridging over the western half of the conus.  Models show
the previously mentioned closed low becoming embedded within the
upper ridge and moving northward and weakening.  This upper pattern
will allow for fairly dry conditions for the area through
Wednesday.  Beginning next Thursday/Friday, the models show another
closed low developing south of California and moving eastward
heading into next weekend.  Depending on the timing of this upper
low, it could be wet across the area next Friday so have increased
pops as a result.  A cold front is also expected to move into the
area next Thursday/Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 42  27  53  30  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              45  27  54  31  /  10   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                41  23  52  26  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  51  30  58  39  /  20   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           46  29  55  35  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          38  28  47  33  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   38  21  51  25  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   42  15  51  24  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    40  27  54  31  /  10   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  40  27  54  31  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    44  27  56  30  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99/99

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860
FXUS64 KMAF 231210
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
610 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Clouds are clearing from w to e with back edge of low clouds from
MAF to FST, farther w mainly mid clouds. Fog with vsby as low
1-3SM also possible at INK/FST/MAF. By 15Z MAF/FST will have
cleared too leaving VFR thru remainder of the period with SW-NW
10kts or less.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2015/

UPDATE...

Issued update to extend the Winter Storm Warning and Winter
Weather Advisory across eastern and central portions of the Permian
Basin, the Western Low Rolling Plains, and the Lower Trans Pecos
through 9 am CST.

DISCUSSION...

Snow is continuing across eastern and central portions of the
Permian Basin, the Western Low Rolling Plains, and the Trans Pecos
and is slower in moving out of the area than previously
anticipated.  Due to this reason, have decided to extend the
previously mentioned portions of the Winter Storm Warning and Winter
Weather Advisory until 9 am CST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Snow continues to move across the Permian Basin and the Trans Pecos
this morning with temperatures near or below freezing.  Models might
be too quick with moving the precipitation out of the CWA so might
need to extend the eastern part of the Winter Storm Warning and
Winter Weather Advisory for a couple more hours.  The upper trough
that is over the region and contributing to the snow is expected to
move over eastern TX this afternoon.  This will cause the
precipitation to move out of the area today, and surface winds will
become westerly by this afternoon.  The surface high moving to the
east today will allow for temperatures this afternoon to warm up
into the 40s across most of the area.

A broad upper trough will be over the eastern conus and Upper
Midwest with a closed low taking shape off the coast of Mexico south
of California beginning on Saturday.  Temperatures will warm up into
the 50s across most of the area on Saturday.  An even greater warm
up is expected on Sunday with temperatures in the 60s and remaining
this warm through Thursday.  The upper pattern is expected to not
change much with an upper trough remaining over the eastern conus
and upper ridging over the western half of the conus.  Models show
the previously mentioned closed low becoming embedded within the
upper ridge and moving northward and weakening.  This upper pattern
will allow for fairly dry conditions for the area through
Wednesday.  Beginning next Thursday/Friday, the models show another
closed low developing south of California and moving eastward
heading into next weekend.  Depending on the timing of this upper
low, it could be wet across the area next Friday so have increased
pops as a result.  A cold front is also expected to move into the
area next Thursday/Friday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Borden...Crane...Glasscock...Howard...
     Mitchell...Reagan...Scurry...Upton.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 9 AM CST this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Ector...Martin...Midland...Pecos.


&&

$$

99

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666
FXUS64 KMAF 231140
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
529 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2015

.UPDATE...

Issued update to extend the Winter Storm Warning and Winter
Weather Advisory across eastern and central portions of the Permian
Basin, the Western Low Rolling Plains, and the Lower Trans Pecos
through 9 am CST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Snow is continuing across eastern and central portions of the
Permian Basin, the Western Low Rolling Plains, and the Trans Pecos
and is slower in moving out of the area than previously
anticipated.  Due to this reason, have decided to extend the
previously mentioned portions of the Winter Storm Warning and Winter
Weather Advisory until 9 am CST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Snow continues to move across the Permian Basin and the Trans Pecos
this morning with temperatures near or below freezing.  Models might
be too quick with moving the precipitation out of the CWA so might
need to extend the eastern part of the Winter Storm Warning and
Winter Weather Advisory for a couple more hours.  The upper trough
that is over the region and contributing to the snow is expected to
move over eastern TX this afternoon.  This will cause the
precipitation to move out of the area today, and surface winds will
become westerly by this afternoon.  The surface high moving to the
east today will allow for temperatures this afternoon to warm up
into the 40s across most of the area.

A broad upper trough will be over the eastern conus and Upper
Midwest with a closed low taking shape off the coast of Mexico south
of California beginning on Saturday.  Temperatures will warm up into
the 50s across most of the area on Saturday.  An even greater warm
up is expected on Sunday with temperatures in the 60s and remaining
this warm through Thursday.  The upper pattern is expected to not
change much with an upper trough remaining over the eastern conus
and upper ridging over the western half of the conus.  Models show
the previously mentioned closed low becoming embedded within the
upper ridge and moving northward and weakening.  This upper pattern
will allow for fairly dry conditions for the area through
Wednesday.  Beginning next Thursday/Friday, the models show another
closed low developing south of California and moving eastward
heading into next weekend.  Depending on the timing of this upper
low, it could be wet across the area next Friday so have increased
pops as a result.  A cold front is also expected to move into the
area next Thursday/Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 44  27  53  30  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              45  27  54  31  /  20   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                44  23  52  26  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  51  30  58  39  /  30   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           46  29  55  35  /  20   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          40  28  47  33  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   42  21  51  25  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   44  15  51  24  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    45  27  54  31  /  20   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  45  27  54  31  /  20   0   0   0
WINK TX                    47  27  56  30  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Borden...Crane...Glasscock...Howard...
     Mitchell...Reagan...Scurry...Upton.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 9 AM CST this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Ector...Martin...Midland...Pecos.


&&

$$

99/99

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581
FXUS64 KMAF 231016
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
415 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Snow continues to move across the Permian Basin and the Trans Pecos
this morning with temperatures near or below freezing.  Models might
be too quick with moving the precipitation out of the CWA so might
need to extend the eastern part of the Winter Storm Warning and
Winter Weather Advisory for a couple more hours.  The upper trough
that is over the region and contributing to the snow is expected to
move over eastern TX this afternoon.  This will cause the
precipitation to move out of the area today, and surface winds will
become westerly by this afternoon.  The surface high moving to the
east today will allow for temperatures this afternoon to warm up
into the 40s across most of the area.

A broad upper trough will be over the eastern conus and Upper
Midwest with a closed low taking shape off the coast of Mexico south
of California beginning on Saturday.  Temperatures will warm up into
the 50s across most of the area on Saturday.  An even greater warm
up is expected on Sunday with temperatures in the 60s and remaining
this warm through Thursday.  The upper pattern is expected to not
change much with an upper trough remaining over the eastern conus
and upper ridging over the western half of the conus.  Models show
the previously mentioned closed low becoming embedded within the
upper ridge and moving northward and weakening.  This upper pattern
will allow for fairly dry conditions for the area through
Wednesday.  Beginning next Thursday/Friday, the models show another
closed low developing south of California and moving eastward
heading into next weekend.  Depending on the timing of this upper
low, it could be wet across the area next Friday so have increased
pops as a result.  A cold front is also expected to move into the
area next Thursday/Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 44  27  53  30  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              45  27  54  31  /  20   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                44  23  52  26  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  51  30  58  39  /  30   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           46  29  55  35  /  20   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          40  28  47  33  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   42  21  51  25  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   44  15  51  24  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    45  27  54  31  /  20   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  45  27  54  31  /  20   0   0   0
WINK TX                    47  27  56  30  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER STORM WARNING until 5 AM MST early this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST early this morning FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Borden...Crane...Glasscock...
     Howard...Mitchell...Reagan...Scurry...Upton.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ early this
     morning FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend
     Area...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...Marfa Plateau...
     Martin...Midland...Pecos...Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

49/80

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931
FXUS64 KMAF 230526
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1126 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Main aviation concern for the next 24 hours will be low cigs/vis
affecting terminals through Friday morning. Generally have IFR/LIFR
cigs and vis at most sites tonight however some locations are
showing a brief improvement to MVFR for the time being. This should
be short-lived as new model runs show conditions getting much worse
with fog/LIFR vis developing in the next few hours. Currently have
-SN reported at all terminals at 05Z but periods of moderate snow
may result in lower vis than what is forecasted. Conditions expected
to improve by mid morning Friday with precip ending from NW to SE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
Main aviation concern for the next 24 hours will be low cigs/vis
affecting terminals overnight. Currently have IFR/LIFR cigs and vis
across the board this evening with mainly -SN reported at all
but PEQ, where -RA will likely change to -SN tonight. Expect this to
continue overnight into the early morning hours Friday. Snow should
remain light most of the time however periods of moderate/heavy snow
may occur, lowering visibilities beyond what is forecasted.
Conditions expected to improve by mid morning Friday with precip
ending from NW to SE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The upper level low serving as the driving force behind today`s
wintry weather continues to dig southward across southwestern New
Mexico toward far west Texas. Recent water vapor imagery shows a
plume of moisture continuing to stream over the area ahead of the
low. Infrared satellite also shows cooling cloud tops across
southeastern New Mexico and southwest Texas, evidence of the
increasing amount of lift overspreading the area ahead of the
approaching trough. Much of the area has seen a rain and snow mix
for most of the day today, though accumulations have generally
been under an inch as ground temperatures remain warm and snow is
melting as it falls. The exception to this is across southeastern
New Mexico and in the Guadalupe Mountains, where 4 to 6 inches of
accumulation have already been reported. As temperatures drop this
evening to near/below freezing, expect all snow to prevail, and
accumulations to increase across the area. Overnight, the axis of
heaviest snow will gradually shift south over the Lower Trans
Pecos and Davis Mountains. Still think the going storm total snow
accumulations look to be on track, with roughly a widespread 2-4
inches of accumulation, and upwards of 6 to 7 inches across the
higher terrain of the Guadalupe, Davis, and Apache Mountains. A
Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until Friday morning for
southeast New Mexico, the western and central Permian Basin, Upper
Trans Pecos, and locations south and west of the Pecos River
excluding the Presidio Valley and Terrell County. A Winter Weather
Advisory also remains in effect through Friday morning for the
eastern and southern Permian Basin. Please refer to the
Warning/Advisory products for details.

Temperatures will begin to rebound on Friday as the trough axis
finally swings through the area, ushering precipitation to the east,
with dry conditions expected by Friday afternoon. The warming trend
will continue into next week as a 500mb ridge develops, extending
from south Texas northwestward toward the Pacific Northwest.
Temperatures will rise well into the 60s by Wednesday, though the
ridge will begin to flatten out by Wednesday afternoon as upper
level flow splits and yet another southern stream trough begins
to dig south over the west coast. Currently, the GFS and ECMWF
solutions diverge in their handling of the aforementioned trough for
the end of next week, with the ECMWF developing a cutoff low off
of the Baja Peninsula by late week, versus the GFS which maintains
an open wave, but quite a bit more moisture. Given the
uncertainties that far out, have elected to maintain only sub-
mentionable PoPs in the extended at this time.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER STORM WARNING until 5 AM MST Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Borden...Crane...Glasscock...Howard...Mitchell...
     Reagan...Scurry...Upton.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Friday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Guadalupe
     Mountains...Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...
     Pecos...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

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245
FXUS64 KMAF 222348
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
548 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2015


.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
Main aviation concern for the next 24 hours will be low cigs/vis
affecting terminals overnight. Currently have IFR/LIFR cigs and vis
across the board this evening with mainly -SN reported at all
but PEQ, where -RA will likely change to -SN tonight. Expect this to
continue overnight into the early morning hours Friday. Snow should
remain light most of the time however periods of moderate/heavy snow
may occur, lowering visibilities beyond what is forecasted.
Conditions expected to improve by mid morning Friday with precip
ending from NW to SE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The upper level low serving as the driving force behind today`s
wintry weather continues to dig southward across southwestern New
Mexico toward far west Texas. Recent water vapor imagery shows a
plume of moisture continuing to stream over the area ahead of the
low. Infrared satellite also shows cooling cloud tops across
southeastern New Mexico and southwest Texas, evidence of the
increasing amount of lift overspreading the area ahead of the
approaching trough. Much of the area has seen a rain and snow mix
for most of the day today, though accumulations have generally
been under an inch as ground temperatures remain warm and snow is
melting as it falls. The exception to this is across southeastern
New Mexico and in the Guadalupe Mountains, where 4 to 6 inches of
accumulation have already been reported. As temperatures drop this
evening to near/below freezing, expect all snow to prevail, and
accumulations to increase across the area. Overnight, the axis of
heaviest snow will gradually shift south over the Lower Trans
Pecos and Davis Mountains. Still think the going storm total snow
accumulations look to be on track, with roughly a widespread 2-4
inches of accumulation, and upwards of 6 to 7 inches across the
higher terrain of the Guadalupe, Davis, and Apache Mountains. A
Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until Friday morning for
southeast New Mexico, the western and central Permian Basin, Upper
Trans Pecos, and locations south and west of the Pecos River
excluding the Presidio Valley and Terrell County. A Winter Weather
Advisory also remains in effect through Friday morning for the
eastern and southern Permian Basin. Please refer to the
Warning/Advisory products for details.

Temperatures will begin to rebound on Friday as the trough axis
finally swings through the area, ushering precipitation to the east,
with dry conditions expected by Friday afternoon. The warming trend
will continue into next week as a 500mb ridge develops, extending
from south Texas northwestward toward the Pacific Northwest.
Temperatures will rise well into the 60s by Wednesday, though the
ridge will begin to flatten out by Wednesday afternoon as upper
level flow splits and yet another southern stream trough begins
to dig south over the west coast. Currently, the GFS and ECMWF
solutions diverge in their handling of the aforementioned trough for
the end of next week, with the ECMWF developing a cutoff low off
of the Baja Peninsula by late week, versus the GFS which maintains
an open wave, but quite a bit more moisture. Given the
uncertainties that far out, have elected to maintain only sub-
mentionable PoPs in the extended at this time.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER STORM WARNING until 5 AM MST Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Borden...Crane...Glasscock...Howard...Mitchell...
     Reagan...Scurry...Upton.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Friday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Guadalupe
     Mountains...Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...
     Pecos...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

27

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226
FXUS64 KMAF 222110
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
310 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The upper level low serving as the driving force behind today`s
wintry weather continues to dig southward across southwestern New
Mexico toward far west Texas. Recent water vapor imagery shows a
plume of moisture continuing to stream over the area ahead of the
low. Infrared satellite also shows cooling cloud tops across
southeastern New Mexico and southwest Texas, evidence of the
increasing amount of lift overspreading the area ahead of the
approaching trough. Much of the area has seen a rain and snow mix
for most of the day today, though accumulations have generally
been under an inch as ground temperatures remain warm and snow is
melting as it falls. The exception to this is across southeastern
New Mexico and in the Guadalupe Mountains, where 4 to 6 inches of
accumulation have already been reported. As temperatures drop this
evening to near/below freezing, expect all snow to prevail, and
accumulations to increase across the area. Overnight, the axis of
heaviest snow will gradually shift south over the Lower Trans
Pecos and Davis Mountains. Still think the going storm total snow
accumulations look to be on track, with roughly a widespread 2-4
inches of accumulation, and upwards of 6 to 7 inches across the
higher terrain of the Guadalupe, Davis, and Apache Mountains. A
Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until Friday morning for
southeast New Mexico, the western and central Permian Basin, Upper
Trans Pecos, and locations south and west of the Pecos River
excluding the Presidio Valley and Terrell County. A Winter Weather
Advisory also remains in effect through Friday morning for the
eastern and southern Permian Basin. Please refer to the
Warning/Advisory products for details.

Temperatures will begin to rebound on Friday as the trough axis
finally swings through the area, ushering precipitation to the east,
with dry conditions expected by Friday afternoon. The warming trend
will continue into next week as a 500mb ridge develops, extending
from south Texas northwestward toward the Pacific Northwest.
Temperatures will rise well into the 60s by Wednesday, though the
ridge will begin to flatten out by Wednesday afternoon as upper
level flow splits and yet another southern stream trough begins
to dig south over the west coast. Currently, the GFS and ECMWF
solutions diverge in their handling of the aforementioned trough for
the end of next week, with the ECMWF developing a cutoff low off
of the Baja Peninsula by late week, versus the GFS which maintains
an open wave, but quite a bit more moisture. Given the
uncertainties that far out, have elected to maintain only sub-
mentionable PoPs in the extended at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 26  44  27  52  /  80  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              30  45  28  54  /  90  20   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                19  43  22  54  /  80  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  36  51  29  59  /  90  30   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           29  45  29  53  /  90  20   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          20  38  28  46  /  70  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   19  42  21  53  /  70  10   0   0
MARFA TX                   23  44  15  51  /  90  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    29  45  26  55  /  90  20   0   0
ODESSA TX                  29  45  25  54  /  90  20   0   0
WINK TX                    28  47  26  54  /  90  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER STORM WARNING until 5 AM MST Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Borden...Crane...Glasscock...Howard...Mitchell...
     Reagan...Scurry...Upton.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Friday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Guadalupe
     Mountains...Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...
     Pecos...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

10/84

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379
FXUS64 KMAF 221729
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1129 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Snow will continue all TAF sites through at least the next 12
hours with CIG/VIS bouncing between MVFR/LIFR, depending on the
intensity of the snow. Conditions will begin to improve after 06Z
and VFR is expected between 12Z-18Z Friday.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...

An upper trough is centered over northern New Mexico resulting in
increasing upper lift and moisture over the region.  This upper
system has resulted in snow currently across the TX panhandle and
parts of southeast New Mexico with rain and isolated thunder across
central TX.  Temperatures across the area this morning are
continuing to fall as colder air pushes southward.  Went cooler than
most of the model guidance on high temperatures today due to gusty
winds advecting the colder air into the area faster than what the
models predicted.  Used soundings off of the Texas Tech WRF model to
aid in determining temperatures today.  The change from rain to snow
will depend on how quickly the temperatures drop to near freezing
thus making it a challenging forecast.  Generally expect snow today
across southeast New Mexico, most of the Permian Basin, and the
mountainous areas of West Texas.  A mix of rain and snow will be
present south of the above mentioned area with mostly rain present
across the Lower Trans Pecos, Big Bend area, and Presidio Valley.
Also, expect the heaviest precipitation today to be across southeast
New Mexico, the western Permian Basin, the Guadalupe Mountains, and
the Upper Trans Pecos.  A Winter Storm Warning is in effect through
tonight across southeast New Mexico, western and central portions of
the Permian Basin, the Upper Trans Pecos, and locations south and
west of the Pecos River excluding the Presidio Valley and Terrell
County.  A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect through tonight for
the eastern and southern Permian Basin.

As temperatures drop to below or near freezing across the CWA
tonight, expect the precipitation to mainly be in the form of snow.
The area of heaviest precipitation tonight appears to shift to the
Lower Trans Pecos area.  The precipitation will begin moving out of
the area on Friday morning as the upper trough moves over central
TX.  Expect storm total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across
the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos.  Higher amounts of 4 to 6+ inches
are possible across parts of southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe
Mountains, and the Davis and Apache Mountains.  Most, if not all, of
the precipitation should be out of the CWA Friday afternoon with
surface winds becoming westerly.  This will cause afternoon
temperatures on Friday to warm up into the 40s across most of the
area.

Temperatures heading into the weekend and next week are expected to
warm up with above normal temperatures starting on Sunday.  An upper
trough will be over the eastern conus with an upper ridge over the
western conus.  This upper pattern will aid in keeping conditions
dry for most of the extended forecast.  The models are hinting at
precipitation developing across the area next Thursday and Friday
with the approach of the next upper trough just off the coast of
southern California.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER STORM WARNING until 5 AM MST Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Borden...Crane...Glasscock...Howard...Mitchell...
     Reagan...Scurry...Upton.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Friday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Guadalupe
     Mountains...Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...
     Pecos...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

10

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055
FXUS64 KMAF 221128
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
528 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
A mix of RA/SN/BR being reported across the area including TAF sites.
No real improvement is expected today and in fact they will be
worse at least temporarily and have used TEMPO groups frequently to
reflect deteriorating wx thru the forecast. Prevailing SN later
today and tonight may result in snow packed runways.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...

An upper trough is centered over northern New Mexico resulting in
increasing upper lift and moisture over the region.  This upper
system has resulted in snow currently across the TX panhandle and
parts of southeast New Mexico with rain and isolated thunder across
central TX.  Temperatures across the area this morning are
continuing to fall as colder air pushes southward.  Went cooler than
most of the model guidance on high temperatures today due to gusty
winds advecting the colder air into the area faster than what the
models predicted.  Used soundings off of the Texas Tech WRF model to
aid in determining temperatures today.  The change from rain to snow
will depend on how quickly the temperatures drop to near freezing
thus making it a challenging forecast.  Generally expect snow today
across southeast New Mexico, most of the Permian Basin, and the
mountainous areas of West Texas.  A mix of rain and snow will be
present south of the above mentioned area with mostly rain present
across the Lower Trans Pecos, Big Bend area, and Presidio Valley.
Also, expect the heaviest precipitation today to be across southeast
New Mexico, the western Permian Basin, the Guadalupe Mountains, and
the Upper Trans Pecos.  A Winter Storm Warning is in effect through
tonight across southeast New Mexico, western and central portions of
the Permian Basin, the Upper Trans Pecos, and locations south and
west of the Pecos River excluding the Presidio Valley and Terrell
County.  A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect through tonight for
the eastern and southern Permian Basin.

As temperatures drop to below or near freezing across the CWA
tonight, expect the precipitation to mainly be in the form of snow.
The area of heaviest precipitation tonight appears to shift to the
Lower Trans Pecos area.  The precipitation will begin moving out of
the area on Friday morning as the upper trough moves over central
TX.  Expect storm total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across
the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos.  Higher amounts of 4 to 6+ inches
are possible across parts of southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe
Mountains, and the Davis and Apache Mountains.  Most, if not all, of
the precipitation should be out of the CWA Friday afternoon with
surface winds becoming westerly.  This will cause afternoon
temperatures on Friday to warm up into the 40s across most of the
area.

Temperatures heading into the weekend and next week are expected to
warm up with above normal temperatures starting on Sunday.  An upper
trough will be over the eastern conus with an upper ridge over the
western conus.  This upper pattern will aid in keeping conditions
dry for most of the extended forecast.  The models are hinting at
precipitation developing across the area next Thursday and Friday
with the approach of the next upper trough just off the coast of
southern California.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER STORM WARNING until 5 AM MST Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 AM this morning to 6 AM CST
     Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Crane...Reagan...Upton.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Friday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Guadalupe
     Mountains...Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...
     Pecos...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Borden...Glasscock...Howard...Mitchell...Scurry.


&&

$$

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685
FXUS64 KMAF 221058
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
457 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...

An upper trough is centered over northern New Mexico resulting in
increasing upper lift and moisture over the region.  This upper
system has resulted in snow currently across the TX panhandle and
parts of southeast New Mexico with rain and isolated thunder across
central TX.  Temperatures across the area this morning are
continuing to fall as colder air pushes southward.  Went cooler than
most of the model guidance on high temperatures today due to gusty
winds advecting the colder air into the area faster than what the
models predicted.  Used soundings off of the Texas Tech WRF model to
aid in determining temperatures today.  The change from rain to snow
will depend on how quickly the temperatures drop to near freezing
thus making it a challenging forecast.  Generally expect snow today
across southeast New Mexico, most of the Permian Basin, and the
mountainous areas of West Texas.  A mix of rain and snow will be
present south of the above mentioned area with mostly rain present
across the Lower Trans Pecos, Big Bend area, and Presidio Valley.
Also, expect the heaviest precipitation today to be across southeast
New Mexico, the western Permian Basin, the Guadalupe Mountains, and
the Upper Trans Pecos.  A Winter Storm Warning is in effect through
tonight across southeast New Mexico, western and central portions of
the Permian Basin, the Upper Trans Pecos, and locations south and
west of the Pecos River excluding the Presidio Valley and Terrell
County.  A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect through tonight for
the eastern and southern Permian Basin.

As temperatures drop to below or near freezing across the CWA
tonight, expect the precipitation to mainly be in the form of snow.
The area of heaviest precipitation tonight appears to shift to the
Lower Trans Pecos area.  The precipitation will begin moving out of
the area on Friday morning as the upper trough moves over central
TX.  Expect storm total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across
the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos.  Higher amounts of 4 to 6+ inches
are possible across parts of southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe
Mountains, and the Davis and Apache Mountains.  Most, if not all, of
the precipitation should be out of the CWA Friday afternoon with
surface winds becoming westerly.  This will cause afternoon
temperatures on Friday to warm up into the 40s across most of the
area.

Temperatures heading into the weekend and next week are expected to
warm up with above normal temperatures starting on Sunday.  An upper
trough will be over the eastern conus with an upper ridge over the
western conus.  This upper pattern will aid in keeping conditions
dry for most of the extended forecast.  The models are hinting at
precipitation developing across the area next Thursday and Friday
with the approach of the next upper trough just off the coast of
southern California.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 32  22  43  26  /  80  80  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              33  26  44  27  /  70  90  20   0
CARLSBAD NM                33  20  44  24  /  90  50  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  43  35  51  31  /  40  80  20   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           34  26  45  29  /  50  90  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          29  19  38  28  /  90  50  10   0
HOBBS NM                   31  19  41  22  /  90  60  10   0
MARFA TX                   33  19  44  17  /  50  80  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    32  25  44  27  /  60  90  10   0
ODESSA TX                  32  25  44  27  /  60  90  10   0
WINK TX                    35  26  47  26  /  70  90  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER STORM WARNING until 5 AM MST Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 AM this morning to 6 AM CST
     Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Crane...Reagan...Upton.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Friday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Guadalupe
     Mountains...Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...
     Pecos...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Borden...Glasscock...Howard...Mitchell...Scurry.


&&

$$

49/80

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006
FXUS64 KMAF 220534
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1134 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Have a rain/snow mix currently moving across the area... this should
change over to snow overnight and continue through much of Thursday
and fog should increase. There may be some brief improvements
tonight especially after precip moves through, but conditions
should tend toward IFR/LIFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
Will start out with MVFR conditions for most area TAF locations but
will fall to IFR/LIFR overnight as cigs lower. Expect vsbys to
fall also to around a mile as fog develops. Radar currently shows
light rain showers generally north of the Pecos River and this
will change over to snow tonight and may continue through much of
the day tomorrow.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The main focus this forecast period continues to be a potent
winter storm which will impact the region beginning late tonight
through Friday morning. Per latest water vapor imagery, Pacific
moisture continues to advect across the region, the first
indication of which was an area of showers and embedded weak
thunderstorms that developed over the Presidio Valley and Big Bend
Area late this morning. The aforementioned precipitation is
currently exiting the area to the east, though additional rainfall
will develop this evening and tonight. The trough responsible for
the upcoming winter storm continues to dig southward along the
border of Arizona and New Mexico this afternoon, and is expected
to continue to dig across southern New Mexico and into West Texas
over the next 24-48 hours. Both the GFS and ECMWF are in great
agreement, and in line with the GEFS and SREF mean, maintain a
slower eastward motion, as well as further deepening of the trough
and development of a closed low before the system arrives in West
Texas. While the precipitation associated with this storm is
expected to begin as rain, a transition to a mix of rain and snow
will first occur across southeastern New Mexico, the northern
Permian Basin, as well as higher terrain in the Guadalupe and
Davis Mountains by around midnight tonight. Continued cold
advection could edge the rain/snow transition further south
tonight, with the Guadalupe Mountains, southeast New Mexico, and
northwestern Permian Basin expected to transition to all snow by
Thursday morning.

Temperatures across much of the area will warm into the middle 30s
Thursday, serving to transition some locations back to a rain/snow
mix or all rain prior to Thursday night. While the bulk of the
accumulating snow will be across the Guadalupe Mountains and
southeast New Mexico on Thursday, by Thursday night, strong cold
advection will be enough to transition all precipitation to snow,
with the exception of Terrell county, where temperatures are
expected to remain just above freezing for the duration of the
event.  Thursday night still looks to be when the bulk of the snow
will occur across the area, with the exception of southeast New
Mexico, which will experience substantial snowfall during the day on
Thursday. As the low continues to dig south across the Big Bend Area
overnight Thursday, strong lift through a heavily saturated
dendritic growth zone will occur, supported by the passing low as
well as as the accompanying entrance region of the upper level jet
and a potent 500mb vort max rounding the base of the trough
overnight Thursday.  One feature of note: Both the GFS and ECMWF
indicate the potential development of a deformation zone after
midnight Thursday, extending from the Marfa Plateau northeastward
across the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin.  If this occurs, current
forecast snowfall amounts of a widespread 2 to 4 inches, as well as
5 to 7 inches across higher terrain may be a bit low under the
modeled deformation zone.  For now, will wait and see how this pans
out and if the same trend is reflected in future model guidance.
Highest snowfall amounts, possibly in excess of 8 inches, are most
likely across the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains as well as northern
Lea and Eddy counties in New Mexico. Climatologically, antecedent
conditions continue to indicate that this will be a significant
heavy snow event for eastern/southeast New Mexico and West Texas, so
all are encouraged to be prepared for wintry weather beginning
tonight and lasting through Friday morning.  The Winter Storm Watch
has been replaced by a Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather
Advisory, please refer to the appropriate products for details.

Temperatures will begin to rebound on Friday as the precipitation
moves out of the area, though with clear skies Friday night and
potential snow cover, have trended toward cooler guidance for this
time frame.  Depending on areal coverage of the snow cover, lows may
need to be further adjusted, but feel that lows Friday night in the
teens to mid 20s are sufficient for now.  The warming trend will
continue through the weekend, with temperatures rising above normal
by Monday and Tuesday as ridging develops over the region, with no
precipitation currently anticipated beyond the departing winter
storm on Friday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER STORM WARNING until 5 AM MST Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Borden...Crane...Glasscock...Howard...Mitchell...
     Reagan...Scurry...Upton.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Friday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Guadalupe
     Mountains...Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...
     Pecos...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

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654
FXUS64 KMAF 212347
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
547 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Will start out with MVFR conditions for most area TAF locations but
will fall to IFR/LIFR overnight as cigs lower. Expect vsbys to
fall also to around a mile as fog develops. Radar currently shows
light rain showers generally north of the Pecos River and this
will change over to snow tonight and may continue through much of
the day tomorrow.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The main focus this forecast period continues to be a potent
winter storm which will impact the region beginning late tonight
through Friday morning. Per latest water vapor imagery, Pacific
moisture continues to advect across the region, the first
indication of which was an area of showers and embedded weak
thunderstorms that developed over the Presidio Valley and Big Bend
Area late this morning. The aforementioned precipitation is
currently exiting the area to the east, though additional rainfall
will develop this evening and tonight. The trough responsible for
the upcoming winter storm continues to dig southward along the
border of Arizona and New Mexico this afternoon, and is expected
to continue to dig across southern New Mexico and into West Texas
over the next 24-48 hours. Both the GFS and ECMWF are in great
agreement, and in line with the GEFS and SREF mean, maintain a
slower eastward motion, as well as further deepening of the trough
and development of a closed low before the system arrives in West
Texas. While the precipitation associated with this storm is
expected to begin as rain, a transition to a mix of rain and snow
will first occur across southeastern New Mexico, the northern
Permian Basin, as well as higher terrain in the Guadalupe and
Davis Mountains by around midnight tonight. Continued cold
advection could edge the rain/snow transition further south
tonight, with the Guadalupe Mountains, southeast New Mexico, and
northwestern Permian Basin expected to transition to all snow by
Thursday morning.

Temperatures across much of the area will warm into the middle 30s
Thursday, serving to transition some locations back to a rain/snow
mix or all rain prior to Thursday night. While the bulk of the
accumulating snow will be across the Guadalupe Mountains and
southeast New Mexico on Thursday, by Thursday night, strong cold
advection will be enough to transition all precipitation to snow,
with the exception of Terrell county, where temperatures are
expected to remain just above freezing for the duration of the
event.  Thursday night still looks to be when the bulk of the snow
will occur across the area, with the exception of southeast New
Mexico, which will experience substantial snowfall during the day on
Thursday. As the low continues to dig south across the Big Bend Area
overnight Thursday, strong lift through a heavily saturated
dendritic growth zone will occur, supported by the passing low as
well as as the accompanying entrance region of the upper level jet
and a potent 500mb vort max rounding the base of the trough
overnight Thursday.  One feature of note: Both the GFS and ECMWF
indicate the potential development of a deformation zone after
midnight Thursday, extending from the Marfa Plateau northeastward
across the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin.  If this occurs, current
forecast snowfall amounts of a widespread 2 to 4 inches, as well as
5 to 7 inches across higher terrain may be a bit low under the
modeled deformation zone.  For now, will wait and see how this pans
out and if the same trend is reflected in future model guidance.
Highest snowfall amounts, possibly in excess of 8 inches, are most
likely across the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains as well as northern
Lea and Eddy counties in New Mexico. Climatologically, antecedent
conditions continue to indicate that this will be a significant
heavy snow event for eastern/southeast New Mexico and West Texas, so
all are encouraged to be prepared for wintry weather beginning
tonight and lasting through Friday morning.  The Winter Storm Watch
has been replaced by a Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather
Advisory, please refer to the appropriate products for details.

Temperatures will begin to rebound on Friday as the precipitation
moves out of the area, though with clear skies Friday night and
potential snow cover, have trended toward cooler guidance for this
time frame.  Depending on areal coverage of the snow cover, lows may
need to be further adjusted, but feel that lows Friday night in the
teens to mid 20s are sufficient for now.  The warming trend will
continue through the weekend, with temperatures rising above normal
by Monday and Tuesday as ridging develops over the region, with no
precipitation currently anticipated beyond the departing winter
storm on Friday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER STORM WARNING from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM MST Friday
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Friday
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Borden...Crane...Glasscock...
     Howard...Mitchell...Reagan...Scurry...Upton.

     WINTER STORM WARNING from Midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight to 6
     AM CST /5 AM MST/ Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Andrews...Big Bend Area...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...
     Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...Pecos...Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...
     Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

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