Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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921
FXUS64 KMAF 152050
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
250 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Temperatures have been much warmer today than seen recently, but
the pleasant weather will be short lived as another strong cold
front moves through the area tomorrow morning. There will be more
moisture associated with this front so there will be a chance for
wintry precipitation. Looking at vertical profiles for tomorrow,
it appears most of the moisture will be concentrated below 700mb,
with limited moisture above. This shallow moisture combined with
temperatures in dendritic growth zone of -5 to -8C are not
conducive for much accumulating snow. Additionally most of the
lift associated with precip generation will be weak along the
elevated front favoring mostly flurry type snow fall tomorrow with
some accumulations up to an inch from northern Lea County across
the extreme northern Permian Basin. There will be an elevated warm
layer above freezing, but it will be located above where most
precip generation will occur. Therefore the main precip type will
be snow where surface temperatures are cold enough and rain where
the surface warm layer remains. Do not anticipate much if any
sleet or freezing rain. Any precip will shift south along with the
leading edge of the surface front and will become all snow Sunday
night. Orographic lift may also allow for some light snow in the
Davis and Guadalupe Mountains though the elevated warm layer will
limit amounts.

Winds at Guadalupe Pass today have been near high wind criteria
but will handle this with social media posts as it is too
localized and marginal for a warning. The same holds for tomorrow
when an east gap wind will develop at GDP with sustained northeast
winds approaching 35kts, but again it appears too marginal and
brief to issue a watch or warning at this time. The surface high
settles in Monday but clearing skies will allow for some warming.
A transition to zonal upper flow will continue the warming trend
through the remainder of the week.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 30  36  23  42  /   0  30  20   0
BIG SPRING TX              31  36  24  42  /   0  20  30   0
CARLSBAD NM                38  44  24  45  /   0  40  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  40  60  32  48  /   0   0  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           43  50  26  44  /   0  10  20  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          39  50  23  42  /   0  50  20   0
HOBBS NM                   29  34  21  44  /   0  40  10   0
MARFA TX                   36  60  24  43  /   0  10  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    31  39  22  43  /   0  20  20   0
ODESSA TX                  32  39  24  43  /   0  20  20   0
WINK TX                    36  45  24  46  /   0  20  20   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29/10

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