Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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567
FXUS64 KMAF 261652
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1152 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected across southeast New Mexico and
southwest Texas through Wednesday morning with winds mostly
south to southeast at less than 12 knots. Isolated thunderstorms
are possible this afternoon and into the evening mainly over
southeast New Mexico but extending into the western Permian Basin
and trans-Pecos areas, including the CNM, HOB, PEQ and INK
terminals. Variable and gusty winds are possible in any
thunderstorms that do develop. The chance for thunderstorms at
these locations is not sufficient to include in the 18Z terminal
forecasts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected at all TAF sites. Currently have light/variable winds
areawide this morning, however southeast winds will become more
established this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms will be
possible once again today but think activity should stay west of the
terminals so will not mention in TAFs just yet.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Weak southwesterly upper level flow will continue into tomorrow
bringing low rain chances and slightly above normal temperatures
to west Texas and southeast New Mexico. An upper level low over
Nevada will move east into the Central Plains by Thursday.
Increasing instability ahead of the low will increase rain chances
beginning late Wednesday with low chance PoPs across much of the
area by Thursday. There is still model disagreement as to whether
or not an associated cold front will drop this far south but
consensus seems to keep it north of our CWA. Hopefully this won`t
have too big of an impact as there should be outflow boundaries
from convection along the front along with a surface trough to
provide a low level focus for afternoon storms to develop.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler Thursday and Friday mainly
due to precip and cloud cover with a return of warmer conditions
for the weekend as the upper trough moves off to the east.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05

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