Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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997
FXUS64 KMAF 221955
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
255 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows that the upper ridge has shifted east in response
to the PacNW trough ejecting NE into Alberta.  As a result, West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico now sit under SW flow aloft on the
backside of the ridge.  At the sfc, mesoanalysis shows the
dryline extending from NW Lea County to eastern Pecos County, and
curving back west into the Big Bend Area.  East of this feature,
instability has been increasing over the past few hours, w/a ridge
of 5000+J/kg capes running N-S.  Moisture convergence is on the
increase as well, and convection should begin shortly. Along this
axis of instability, mid-lvl LRs are 7C/km or higher, and forecast
to increase into the overnight hours.  Deep lyr (0-6km) shear is
also forecast to increase to 50-55 kts east of the dryline this
evening. Wet-bulb zero heights are in the 9-10kft range, so large
hail remains a threat. Sounding profiles again show dcapes in excess
of 1000 J/kg, so damaging winds will be possible as well. Even a
tornado can`t be ruled out, as 0-3km helicities increase notably
just east of the dryline into the evening hours. Finally, models
develops a 40-45kt LLJ to keep things going at least into into late
evening. Monday afternoon looks just as bad, if not worse than
today, although forecast higher helicities will be a bit further
west than today`s. Nevertheless, we`ve mentioned svr wx in the grids
for both today and Monday, w/a mention of tornadoes in the HWO. West
of the dryline, Red Flag conditions are noted in the Guadalupes, and
persistence suggests similar conditions Monday.

Otherwise, the general synoptic trend going into this week will be
an upper trough digging down the west coast, keeping West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico under SW flow aloft, w/dryline convection daily
east of this feature, mainly SE zones.  Midweek, the trough will
begin moving east, and pass north of the region Friday
night/Saturday.  Temps should stay above-normal until late week,
when they`ll drop to near-normal as thicknesses decrease w`the
approach of the trough.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     69  94  72  96 /  20  20  20  20
Carlsbad                       62  96  59  94 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                         72  89  72  96 /  20  20  20  10
Fort Stockton                  69  94  66  94 /  10  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 63  87  60  86 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          64  92  60  90 /  10  10  10  10
Marfa                          55  87  50  85 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           72  95  73  97 /  10  20  20  10
Odessa                         71  94  70  95 /  10  10  20  10
Wink                           69  96  65  98 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

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