Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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661
FXUS64 KMAF 021740
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1140 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions with only a few high clouds. Gusty west wind
exceeding 30kts at some TAF sites will continue through the
afternoon and should drop off this evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 347 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The upper trough that brought such windy conditions yesterday will
move off to the northeast today. Strong winds will continue in the
Guadalupe Mountains today, and observations out of Mount Locke
show strong winds in the higher elevations of the Davis Mountains
so have issued a wind warning for there as well. To be clear,
strong winds will probably not make it to lower elevation sites
like Marfa, Fort Davis, or Alpine though it will still be very
windy nonetheless. Winds will finally diminish this evening.

The departing trough will push a cold front through tonight
shifting winds from the north and dropping lows tonight well into
the 20s for most locations not along the Rio Grande. Highs
tomorrow will be below normal then will increase Thursday and
Friday under westerly upper level flow.

Another upper trough will move into the Pacific northwest and
deepen into a low while dropping into the Four Corners region
Friday. This will bring our next chance for precipitation but how
much and whether it will be rain or snow will depend on the
strength of the approaching low. The GFS/Canadian are stronger and
slower with the low while the ECMWF/DGEX are weaker and faster.
Given the lack of amplification of the upstream ridge it seems
more likely that the low will be weaker and faster so am inclined
to lean towards the ECMWF. This would favor highest PoPs Friday
night into early Saturday with most precip being liquid except
snow in southeast New Mexico and the northern basin. Clearing
skies in the afternoon would allow temps Saturday to warm into
the 40s. However should the GFS verify then temperatures Saturday
could be as much as 10 degrees colder with snow spreading farther
south than currently indicated so this system will bear close
watching the next several days.

Sunday will be warmer but an amplifying upper pattern will bring
another strong cold front into west Texas Sunday night.

Hennig

FIRE WEATHER...
Looking at cooler temperatures and breezy conditions today, although
wind speeds will be lighter than what we saw Monday. Minimum
relative humidity values generally near 20 percent across much of
the Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions although a few locations in and
near Terrell county may see RH`s near 15 percent. West winds of 20-
30mph can be expected across most areas through mid-day.
Fortunately, winds will begin to decrease through this afternoon
however breezy west winds through this morning will likely continue
to aid any ongoing fires. Will issue a Fire Danger Statement for
the potential brief period of near critical fire weather
conditions across portions of the Lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend.
Recovery expected to be fair across the Big Bend region overnight
tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     56  25  47  27 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       52  26  45  20 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         63  32  54  30 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  55  27  48  28 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 40  22  38  25 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          49  23  43  23 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          47  18  45  14 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           54  24  47  25 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         54  25  46  26 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           55  27  48  22 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Eddy County
     Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Marfa Plateau-
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

&&

$$

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