Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 180522

1222 AM CDT Mon May 18 2015

See aviation discussion below.


Gulf moisture will continue to increase overnight on light southeast
winds. Expecting Gulf stratus with IFR ceilings at KMAF at around
10z and continue through 17z. At KINK, expecting MVFR ceilings by
15z through 19z. Confidence was not high enough at this time to
include restricted flight conditions elsewhere but this will need
to be monitored with the latest guidance and trends. An upper
level disturbance will bring a chance of thunderstorms to a majority
of the terminals Monday afternoon and evening and have included a
PROB30 group for that possibility. Southeast winds are expected to
increase to 15 to 25 mph and gusty by Monday afternoon.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 PM CDT Sun May 17 2015/


See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.


Latest models back winds slightly after sunset, increasing PBL
moisture on return flow. 18Z NAM buffer soundings still developing
a few hours of LIFR cigs at KMAF, and MVFR at KFST. Otherwise,
forecast soundings reach widespread convective temps 16-19Z,
w/bases 4-9 kft agl. Best chances for convection look to be Texas
terminals late in the forecast period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 204 PM CDT Sun May 17 2015/

Convective potential will remain limited today/tonight, however by
Mon AM low level moisture return will be ongoing in earnest, per a
low level jet with deepening sely flow thru the day Monday.
Meanwhile a plume of much steeper mid level LRs will overspread much
of CWFA. This along with strong SB heating will result in large CAPE
and the risk of severe storms, especially large hail, a brief
tornado can`t be ruled out either. Looking closely at surface
temps/dwpnts their respective maxima will be nearly co-located
INVOF Pecos River Valley. It does make some sense that storms will
initiate near/just ne of the Davis Mtns and then strengthen as
they move newd into said warm/moist low level airmass. NAM12 is
quite aggressive with instability, possibly around/over 3000 J/KG
within the TX portion of Pecos River Valley. This with deep layer
shear of 40-45kts will make for a most favorable environment for
severe storms across the wrn PB by late afternoon and Lea/ern
Eddy Co NM/nw PB by early evening. We will ramp up severe wording
in our products for Monday. More of the same Tue, but the dryline
will be better developed with rich dwpnt air still along and e of
dryline, dwpnts low to mid 60s with evidence of a weak boundary in
MSLP data. There is some concern that convection in the morning
across the nrn PB could limit afternoon convection Tue? By Wed
severe wx concerns will still exist with NAM12 indicating that a
frontal boundary may be draped nw-se across the S Plains/nrn PB. A
theta-e ridge at surface will be INVOF highway 349 and ewd. Attm
it is difficult to confidently say where/if tstms will develop as
previous days/nights precip will modulate features and timing. For
what its worth, Thur frontal boundary would likely be farther s,
even near I-10, and with sw flow aloft and with mstr still in
place behind front more rain would be possible, including Fri.
Indications are that the mid level trof will finally move enough
ewd to restrict rain potential to the far e CWFA Sat/Sun.
Temperatures stay more or less normal to below normal thru the
forecast with some of the days modulated by precip and of course
the front mid week.






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