Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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023
FXUS64 KMAF 011002
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
502 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
BKN mid cloud deck at PEQ is all that remains with winds less
than 10kts. Winds will increase around 23Z from SE, possibly near
15kts. Have opted to include a PROB30 group for HOB after 23z. The
possibility for outflow boundaries from anticipated storms to the
n and e of MAF may result in scattered SHRA/TSRA farther w,
including MAF area.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Not much change to the current forecast, as persistence
rules.  WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over the Four
Corners region, courtesy of an amplifying trough over the eastern
seaboard.  At the sfc, obs show a weak boundary has moved into the
Wrn Low Rolling Plains/Permian Basin, resulting in cooler easterly
flow into the area.

W/the upper ridge having moved to the NW, this has allowed a richer
theta-e ridge axis to nudge into the eastern zones.  -SHRA developed
on the boundary that moved into the region earlier, w/current radar
showing a few weak echoes over the Stockton Plateau near the
boundary.  Both the NAM and GFS continue migrating the theta-e ridge
westward thru the weekend, and w/residual boundaries from earlier
activity, current POPs look justified.  Main concerns continue to be
gusty winds, as forecast soundings maintain a dry subcloud layer.
Best chances should develop west and north into Monday w/the richer
theta-e, before the ring-of-fire pattern resumes as the upper ridge
builds SE back into the region.

For temps, w/the ridge over the Four Corners, today looks to be the
coolest day this forecast, if one can call 98F at KMAF cool.  After
today, models depict a progressive pattern of shortwaves thru the
flow north of the ridge, which will nudge the ridge back SE to its
proper place over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, w/model 1000-
500mb thicknesses increasing into the extended for another week of
triple-digit temps.  Climatologically, temps begin coming down at
KMAF on 8/10, so this week`s temps are par for the course.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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