Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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636
FXUS64 KMAF 300521
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1221 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2014


.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours. Could see MVFR vis
develop once again at CNM early this morning, otherwise VFR
conditions are expect to prevail.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 143 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A strong upper low over the Intermountain West this morning will
swing across the Rockies early Tuesday before lifting northeast.
A secondary upper trough will swing across Eastern NM and W TX on
Thursday.  This will bring a brief shot of cooler wx to the region.
After this high pressure begins to build in from the west.

Had much less fog this morning compared to yesterday.  Afternoon cu
has developed over most of the area and should dissipate this
evening.  Some mid clouds should move across the area tonight along
with increased vorticity associated with the upper trough.  This
could end up keeping lows a degree or two higher.  Expect above
normal highs Tuesday and Wednesday.  A cold front will move into the
region Thursday.  Currently it looks like it will begin with a wind
shift to the west more like a Pacific front. This front will be
attached to a deep surface low moving across the Southern
Plains... with the wind coming around to the north as the polar
front moves in behind it.  The cool down only looks to be brief.
There may be some rain off to the east but for our CWA fropa looks
to be dry.

With the approach of the upper trough and upslope flow at the
surface there could be some storms this afternoon or tonight over
the Davis Mtns... SE NM or Culberson county.  Models do give low
pops and develop some qpf so will go ahead and leave the low pops
in tonight.  Will mention strong storms possible tonight mainly for
SE NM.  After that rain chances looking slim... could be few
storms develop late Tuesday along a surface trough.  Other than that
the forecast is dry the rest of the week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27

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