Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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877
FXUS64 KMAF 311721
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1221 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.UPDATE...

Update to realign PoPs through this afternoon, in addition to
adjusting high temperatures and cloud cover. The latest Aviation
Discussion is also included.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Convection over southeast New Mexico and the Upper Trans Pecos has
decreased in strength and coverage late this morning.  The
atmosphere in these areas has been stabilized due to the rainfall,
and with cloud cover lasting well into the afternoon, think further
thunderstorm development may be postponed.  Since there is much of
the day left, think cloud cover will decrease and there could be a
few showers and thunderstorms.  A surface ridge resides over
locations further east, and it appears shower and thunderstorm
development in these areas is pretty unlikely this afternoon and
evening.  High temperatures have been adjusted downward for this
afternoon due to extensive cloud cover over the area, especially
over southeast New Mexico due to the rainfall.  The exception will
be along the Rio Grande River where the cooler air from the
mentioned surface ridge will not have as much affect.

The frontal boundary has pushed into the higher terrain over
southwest Texas.  Think thunderstorm chances will be better over
these areas this afternoon and evening since the atmosphere will
destabilize through max heating.  Upslope flow will not be optimal
due to north to northeasterly surface winds, but the combination of
a vorticity maximum and precipitable water values near 1.5" could
result in fairly widespread thunderstorms and possible heavy
rainfall.  Slow moving, strong thunderstorms could lead to localized
flash flooding, in addition to gusty winds over 50 mph as SBCAPE
values rise to 1000-1500 J/kg.  Will make a mention in the Hazardous
Weather Outlook for this potential.  Will also tweak cloud cover
over the area for increasing clouds south, and decreasing coverage
north.  An update will follow shortly.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR ceilings are persisting over the region early this afternoon as
mid and high cloud is preventing the lower deck mixing out.  Expect
MVFR ceilings to rise by 31/19Z, and will carry VFR thereafter.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening,
but think they will stay south and west of all area TAF sites.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12

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