936
FXUS64 KMAF 222342
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
642 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP TO KEEP WINDS UP OVERNIGHT AT MOST SITES. LOW
LEVEL MSTR WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT ALSO BUT HAVEN/T SEEN ANY INDICATIONS
OF LOW CLOUDS. SATELLITE DOES SHOW HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE
W AND BKN200-250 WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. THE CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL
INCREASE AFTER 18Z THUR. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED LEAVE PROB30 GROUPS OUT
BUT THEY WILL PROBABLY BEGIN TO APPEAR IN TAFS IN THE 06Z AND 12Z
ISSUANCES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DISCUSSION...
ZONAL FLOW WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION TODAY...BUT AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CAUSE FLOW TO BACK FROM THE SOUTHWEST
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ALLOWING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
FORM THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE BACKING FLOW WILL
CAUSE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SURGE WESTWARD INCREASING INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE CWA HOWEVER WITH NO SURFACE BOUNDARY TO FOCUS
ON...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES BEING THE MAIN TRIGGERS. THE ONE
FACTOR THAT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST FOR WILL BE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WHICH COULD PROVIDE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ONE
SUCH FEATURE MAY PUSH SOUTH TOMORROW EVENING AS CONVECTION FIRES
IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT. AS MENTIONED BY
THE MID SHIFT...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE FROM ONE
HALF INCH CURRENTLY TO WELL OVER AN INCH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY
MEANING THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT FOR HEAVY RAIN. THE
THREAT FOR VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE PRESENT ESPECIALLY IN
URBAN AREAS WHERE DRAINAGE IS POOR. THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT HOWEVER WILL BE LOW AS 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES JUST ARE NOT
QUITE HIGH ENOUGH.
THE INCREASE IN PRECIP AND CLOUDS WILL BRING HIGH TEMPS BACK DOWN
BELOW CLIMO AND MAKE FOR A PLEASANT NEXT FEW DAYS. MID LEVEL WINDS
BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY BY SUNDAY SO DECIDED TO END POPS AT
THAT TIME THOUGH THE GENERAL WEST COAST TROUGH/CENTRAL PLAINS
RIDGE REGIME WILL CONTINUE SO CANNOT RULE OUT RAIN CHANCES INTO
NEXT WEEK. IN FACT SEVERAL MODELS DO SHOW RAIN NEXT WEEK BUT WILL
NOT INTRODUCE POPS THAT FAR OUT GIVEN HOW DRY WE HAVE BEEN
RECENTLY.
HENNIG
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
297
FXUS64 KMAF 220943
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
443 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A CU FIELD DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN TERMINALS...W/BASES 8-9
KFT AGL. OTHERWISE...RETURN FLOW CONTINUES...W/A 40+KT LLJ
MAINTAINING WINDS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DISCUSSION...
ONE MORE QUIET DAY TODAY BEFORE A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER SETS IN
ACROSS W TX AND SE NM. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
TODAY AS THE PESKY UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FINALLY BEGINS
TO MOVE EAST. WARMING 850 MB TEMPS (~28C) SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO
REACH THE 90S TO NEAR 100 MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST TO OUR EAST BY THURSDAY
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO INCREASE AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
MODELS SHOW SEVERAL MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD ACT TO ENHANCE LIFT OVER THE
AREA. DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO INCREASED INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK KEEPING
THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER LOW. LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AS PWATS INCREASE TO ~1.3 INCHES OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA (NEARLY +2SD FOR LATE MAY). INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KNOCK
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE DRYLINE. AT
THIS TIME, THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY LOOKS HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S
TO NEAR 100 WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS DIVERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM OUT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLY MORE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
44
483
FXUS64 KMAF 220507
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1207 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR AVIATION WORRIES NEXT 24 HOURS...AS VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL. SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE VEERING AS RETURN FLOW
REESTABLISHES. 40+KT LLJ WILL KEEP WINDS UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
DISCUSSION...
COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO WARMER
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD OVERHEAD. RETURN FLOW
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BACK ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
RETURN ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE MOUNTAINS POSSIBLE. THIS MOISTURE
WILL MIX OUT WITH STRONG HEATING THURSDAY...BUT THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIFT WITH INCREASING FLOW ALOFT TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS. A BETTER CHANCE WILL BE ON FRIDAY
AS A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE DRYLINE WILL BE A PLAYER...BUT TO WHAT
EXTENT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. ENSEMBLE MODEL DATA SUGGESTS
THAT THE STORM MODE WILL BE MULTICELLULAR GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND EXPECTED MODEST MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.
PRECIP CHANCES TAPER OFF A BIT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT COULD
INCREASE DEPENDING ON SUBTLE UPPER FEATURES ROTATING AROUND THE
BASE OF THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC UPPER LOW. STILL LOOKS LIKE WE COULD
SEE AN UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL GIVEN CLOUDS...MOISTURE...
AND EXPECTED OUTFLOW FROM THURSDAY`S STORMS...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR
TEMPS TO BE A BIT ABOVE LATE MAY NORMS.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
44
198
FXUS64 KMAF 212318
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
618 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT VERY NEAR FST BUT THE PUSH IS WEAKENING. AS SUCH WINDS
WILL SLOWLY TURN E-SE OVERNIGHT AND MOSTLY REMAIN 10KTS OR LESS.
NAM12 DOES SUGGEST SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS WED AM FST/MAF BUT FOR NOW
WILL NOT INCLUDE OUTLIER SOLUTIONS. S WINDS WED AT 10-15 KTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
DISCUSSION...
COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO WARMER
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD OVERHEAD. RETURN FLOW
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BACK ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
RETURN ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE MOUNTAINS POSSIBLE. THIS MOISTURE
WILL MIX OUT WITH STRONG HEATING THURSDAY...BUT THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIFT WITH INCREASING FLOW ALOFT TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS. A BETTER CHANCE WILL BE ON FRIDAY
AS A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE DRYLINE WILL BE A PLAYER...BUT TO WHAT
EXTENT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. ENSEMBLE MODEL DATA SUGGESTS
THAT THE STORM MODE WILL BE MULTICELLULAR GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND EXPECTED MODEST MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.
PRECIP CHANCES TAPER OFF A BIT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT COULD
INCREASE DEPENDING ON SUBTLE UPPER FEATURES ROTATING AROUND THE
BASE OF THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC UPPER LOW. STILL LOOKS LIKE WE COULD
SEE AN UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL GIVEN CLOUDS...MOISTURE...
AND EXPECTED OUTFLOW FROM THURSDAY`S STORMS...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR
TEMPS TO BE A BIT ABOVE LATE MAY NORMS.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
086
FXUS64 KMAF 211738
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1238 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES. MORNING COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED AS
FAR SOUTH AS INTERSTATE 10 AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS REMAIN AT ALL
TERMINAL EXCEPT FOR CNM. WIND SPEEDS 10-15KT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20-25KT WILL CONTINUE INTO MID AFTERNOON THEN BEGIN TO
DECREASE AND VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
DISCUSSION...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NE NM...SET TO MOVE THRU THE
PANHANDLES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC...OBS SHOWED A COLD
FRONT MOVING THRU SE NM/WRN LOW ROLLING PLAINS...AND WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON TEMPS ABOUT A CAT BELOW NORMAL TODAY. MODELS DEVELOP
CONVECTION ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH AS IT SWINGS THRU THE
PANHANDLES LATER TODAY...BUT ONLY GRAZES THE NE ZONES. COOLER WX
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH...AS THE SFC RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES
SE...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO RESUME...AND A QUICK REBOUND TO
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPS WEDNESDAY UNDER A DEVELOPING RIDGE.
MEANWHILE...RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT ABUNDANT GULF MSTR INTO THE
AREA...W/FORECAST DEWPOINTS OF 60F OR BETTER THRU KMAF BY 12Z
THURSDAY. THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MODELS BRING THE FIRST OF A SERIES
OF PERTURBATIONS THRU THE RIDGE...INITIATING CONVECTION INVOF A WEAK
DRYLINE...AND EVEN MORE SO FRIDAY...WHEN MODELS BACK THE DRYLINE UP
BEYOND KGDP. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT W/THIS SCENARIO FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NOW...SO WE/VE INCREASED POPS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. BY
00Z SATURDAY...THE ECMWF INCREASES THE PWAT AT KMAF TO 1.45
INCHES...WELL-ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...SO A DECENT SHOT AT MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE
CARDS. SATURDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER SHOT AT CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER
THE EASTERN ZONES. MODELS EVEN TRY TO REDEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG
THE DRYLINE SUNDAY/MEMORIAL DAY...BUT DIFFER ON PLACEMENT...SO WE/VE
KEPT GRIDS DRY THEN.
FOR TEMPS...THE NAM HAS BEEN WAY TOO COLD ON LOWS...ESPECIALLY IN
LIEU OF EXPECTED RETURN MOISTURE...SO WE/VE GENERALLY STAYED ABOVE
GUIDANCE. HIGHS LOOK REASONABLE.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
27
373
FXUS64 KMAF 211131
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
631 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH COLD FRONT NOW MOVING THROUGH THE
PERMIAN BASIN CONTINUING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING
AROUND SUNSET.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
DISCUSSION...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NE NM...SET TO MOVE THRU THE
PANHANDLES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC...OBS SHOWED A COLD
FRONT MOVING THRU SE NM/WRN LOW ROLLING PLAINS...AND WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON TEMPS ABOUT A CAT BELOW NORMAL TODAY. MODELS DEVELOP
CONVECTION ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH AS IT SWINGS THRU THE
PANHANDLES LATER TODAY...BUT ONLY GRAZES THE NE ZONES. COOLER WX
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH...AS THE SFC RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES
SE...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO RESUME...AND A QUICK REBOUND TO
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPS WEDNESDAY UNDER A DEVELOPING RIDGE.
MEANWHILE...RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT ABUNDANT GULF MSTR INTO THE
AREA...W/FORECAST DEWPOINTS OF 60F OR BETTER THRU KMAF BY 12Z
THURSDAY. THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MODELS BRING THE FIRST OF A SERIES
OF PERTURBATIONS THRU THE RIDGE...INITIATING CONVECTION INVOF A WEAK
DRYLINE...AND EVEN MORE SO FRIDAY...WHEN MODELS BACK THE DRYLINE UP
BEYOND KGDP. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT W/THIS SCENARIO FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NOW...SO WE/VE INCREASED POPS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. BY
00Z SATURDAY...THE ECMWF INCREASES THE PWAT AT KMAF TO 1.45
INCHES...WELL-ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...SO A DECENT SHOT AT MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE
CARDS. SATURDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER SHOT AT CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER
THE EASTERN ZONES. MODELS EVEN TRY TO REDEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG
THE DRYLINE SUNDAY/MEMORIAL DAY...BUT DIFFER ON PLACEMENT...SO WE/VE
KEPT GRIDS DRY THEN.
FOR TEMPS...THE NAM HAS BEEN WAY TOO COLD ON LOWS...ESPECIALLY IN
LIEU OF EXPECTED RETURN MOISTURE...SO WE/VE GENERALLY STAYED ABOVE
GUIDANCE. HIGHS LOOK REASONABLE.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
29
814
FXUS64 KMAF 210535
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1235 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 06Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT THIS MORNING AND
BECOME GUSTY BEFORE WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
29
948
FXUS64 KMAF 210310
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1010 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE TO ALLOW RED FLAG WARNING IN THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS TO
EXPIRE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A LITTLE STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS ARE MOVING OVER THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING, WHICH IS PREVENTING WESTERLY WINDS IN THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS FROM DECREASING. DESPITE THESE STRONGER WINDS,
DECOUPLING SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE SPEEDS TO DROP OFF THROUGH 21/05Z OR
21/06Z. IN ADDITION, RH/S WILL INCREASE THROUGH 21/06Z, ESPECIALLY
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS. EVEN THOUGH
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST IN ISOLATED
LOCATIONS, WILL ALLOW THE RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE ON TIME DUE TO
THE ABOVE REASONS. WINDS ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE
ALREADY DROPPED OFF, SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL THERE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND 21/02Z...BUT INCREASE AGAIN FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT KHOB AND KMAF THE
LONGEST WITH THE REST OF THE TAF SITES DECREASING BEFORE 21/18Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
QUIESCENT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT`S BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL MOVE OFF
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE ANTICYCLOGENESIS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AROUND
MIDNIGHT, THROUGH THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY 3 AM TUESDAY, TO I-10 BY 6
AM, AND THEN ACROSS THE BIG BEND AND LOWER TRANS PECOS BY MID
MORNING. ALL THAT`S EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT IS A WINDSHIFT TO THE
NORTH. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL GET KNOCKED DOWN ALL THE WAY TO JUST A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS HIGH WILL THEN TRANSLATE EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT, SETTING THE STAGE FOR MOISTURE RETURN AND DRYLINE-OGENESIS
AS WINDS VEER TO SOUTHEASTERLY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND A
RESULTANT CAP WILL SERVE TO SQUASH CONVECTIVE CHANCES WEDNESDAY.
THE DRYLINE WILL BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AS AN INCREASE IN FLOW ALOFT AND CONVERGENCE AND HEATING AT THE
SURFACE SET THE STAGE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. TRYING TO PREDICT PLACEMENT OF A MESO-GAMMA SCALE
FEATURE AT SYNOPTIC SCALES IS DIFFICULT AT BEST, AND THUS ANY
GUESS OF WHERE THE DRYLINE MIGHT SET UP AND THUS WHERE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN MIGHT BE THIS FAR OUT IS JUST THAT...A GUESS,
ALBEIT SOMEWHAT EDUCATED. HAVING SAID THIS, SOME OF THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY NIGHT...WE
SHALL SEE. IN ANY EVENT, SOME CHANCE OF RAIN IS BETTER THAN NO
CHANCE AT ALL. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE A
BIT COOLER GIVEN THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND MOISTURE. RIGHT NOW
THERE`S ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS TO KEEP POPS OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED
IF LATER SHIFTS INCREASE RAIN CHANCES THEN.
LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE FORECAST
FOR NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MAYBE IT`S
WISHCASTING AT THIS POINT IN TIME, BUT THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR SOME BADLY NEEDED
RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...
STAY TUNED.
FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA HAS BEEN SLOW TO MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS STILL REMAIN BELOW
20 MPH. WINDS WILL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO INCREASE ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS BY MID AFTERNOON SO WILL GO AHEAD AND HOLD ON TO
THE RED FLAG WARNING. CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY BE BRIEF AND THE
FOLLOWING SHIFT MAY NEED TO END THE WARNING EARLIER THAN 03Z.
REGARDLESS...CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 61 89 62 94 / 0 0 0 0
BIG SPRING TX 60 88 64 95 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 60 88 58 97 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 69 97 70 97 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 63 94 65 96 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 60 85 62 85 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 59 86 58 95 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA TX 49 83 49 89 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 60 90 64 95 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 63 88 63 94 / 0 0 0 0
WINK TX 60 95 63 100 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
27/70
060
FXUS64 KMAF 202252
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
552 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION IS BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND 21/02Z...BUT INCREASE AGAIN FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT KHOB AND KMAF THE
LONGEST WITH THE REST OF THE TAF SITES DECREASING BEFORE 21/18Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
QUIESCENT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT`S BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL MOVE OFF
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE ANTICYCLOGENESIS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AROUND
MIDNIGHT, THROUGH THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY 3 AM TUESDAY, TO I-10 BY 6
AM, AND THEN ACROSS THE BIG BEND AND LOWER TRANS PECOS BY MID
MORNING. ALL THAT`S EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT IS A WINDSHIFT TO THE
NORTH. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL GET KNOCKED DOWN ALL THE WAY TO JUST A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS HIGH WILL THEN TRANSLATE EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT, SETTING THE STAGE FOR MOISTURE RETURN AND DRYLINE-OGENESIS
AS WINDS VEER TO SOUTHEASTERLY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND A
RESULTANT CAP WILL SERVE TO SQUASH CONVECTIVE CHANCES WEDNESDAY.
THE DRYLINE WILL BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AS AN INCREASE IN FLOW ALOFT AND CONVERGENCE AND HEATING AT THE
SURFACE SET THE STAGE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. TRYING TO PREDICT PLACEMENT OF A MESO-GAMMA SCALE
FEATURE AT SYNOPTIC SCALES IS DIFFICULT AT BEST, AND THUS ANY
GUESS OF WHERE THE DRYLINE MIGHT SET UP AND THUS WHERE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN MIGHT BE THIS FAR OUT IS JUST THAT...A GUESS,
ALBEIT SOMEWHAT EDUCATED. HAVING SAID THIS, SOME OF THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY NIGHT...WE
SHALL SEE. IN ANY EVENT, SOME CHANCE OF RAIN IS BETTER THAN NO
CHANCE AT ALL. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE A
BIT COOLER GIVEN THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND MOISTURE. RIGHT NOW
THERE`S ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS TO KEEP POPS OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED
IF LATER SHIFTS INCREASE RAIN CHANCES THEN.
LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE FORECAST
FOR NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MAYBE IT`S
WISHCASTING AT THIS POINT IN TIME, BUT THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR SOME BADLY NEEDED
RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...
STAY TUNED.
FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA HAS BEEN SLOW TO MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS STILL REMAIN BELOW
20 MPH. WINDS WILL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO INCREASE ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS BY MID AFTERNOON SO WILL GO AHEAD AND HOLD ON TO
THE RED FLAG WARNING. CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY BE BRIEF AND THE
FOLLOWING SHIFT MAY NEED TO END THE WARNING EARLIER THAN 03Z.
REGARDLESS...CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 61 89 62 94 / 0 0 0 0
BIG SPRING TX 60 88 64 95 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 60 88 58 97 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 69 97 70 97 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 63 94 65 96 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 60 85 62 85 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 59 86 58 95 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA TX 49 83 49 89 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 60 90 64 95 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 63 88 63 94 / 0 0 0 0
WINK TX 60 95 63 100 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
&&
$$
27/70
686
FXUS64 KMAF 201746
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1246 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES. GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE
BEEN SPORADIC THIS MORNING AS THE DRYLINE MEANDERS AROUND HOWEVER
IT SHOULD CONTINUE A CONSTANT PUSH EASTWARD FROM NOW ON AND GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
NEAR SUNSET AND REMAIN AOB 10KT OVERNIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
INTO THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...VEERING WINDS TO
THE NORTHEAST BY MID MORNING FOR MOST TERMINALS. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED ATTM.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
TO SPIN ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE SLOWLY
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO RETURN WEDNESDAY
AND REMAINS OVER TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORMALLY
THIS WOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO HOT WX BY THE WEEKEND BUT ACTUALLY
HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN IN THE EXTENDED WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER LOOKING TO OFFSET THE EFFECTS OF THE RIDGE.
AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS OVER 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN...
SUNDAY CAME IN AT THE MID 90S EVEN WITH UNLIMITED SUNSHINE AND A
WEST WIND. THIS WAS DUE TO COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AS THE RIDGE
MOVED EAST THUS NOT MIXING DOWN AS WARM OF AIR. BASED ON EXPECTED
850 TEMPS TODAY NEAR 28C/82F EXPECT HIGHS TODAY AROUND 98 AT
MAF/ODO. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK BOUNDARY BETWEEN MAF AND
LBB... ETA SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH IN THIS LOCATION AT 06Z THAT DEVELOPS
INTO A SURFACE LOW NEAR CDS DURING THE DAY. THIS LOW DEVELOPS A
WEAK FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SWEEPS ACROSS. TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY THIS WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S NORTH TO UPPER 90S SOUTH. A SOUTH WIND AND WARMER
TEMPS RETURN WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING EAST OF THE AREA. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE HINTING AT
POSSIBILITY OF HIGH WIND TODAY IN THE GUADALUPE MTNS... BUT LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF WIND SPEEDS.
COULD ACTUALLY SEE RAIN THIS WEEK OVER PARTS OF W TX AND SE NM.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE IN THE EXTENDED WITH LOW POPS BEGINNING
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP QPF WITH THIS
EVENT AS REMAINS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM DRIFT UP FROM THE PACIFIC.
SOME OF THE MODELS ARE DEVELOPING WHAT LOOKS LIKE A MCS THURSDAY
NIGHT COMING OUT OF NM INTO THE WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN... IF SO SOME
LOCATIONS WOULD RECEIVE GOOD RAINFALL. EXPECT LOCATION OF RAIN WILL
CHANGE FROM MODEL RUN TO RUN SO WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR NOW.
FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WX WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE GDP MTNS TODAY WHERE
20KTS 85H-7H WINDS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO MATERIALIZE...
ESPECIALLY IN TOPOGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS. RH/S WILL AGAIN BE
WIDESPREAD IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WILL WITH BROAD THERMAL RIDGE...
TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HEAT OF THE LAST FEW
DAYS HAS REALLY DONE SOME DAMAGE TO FUEL MSTR AS SEEN IN TFS FUEL
DRYNESS NOW DEPICTING 90TH PERCENTILE DRYNESS.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
&&
$$
27
253
FXUS64 KMAF 201127
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
627 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL MSTR HAS RETURNED A LITTLE FARTHER W THAN THOUGHT AND
SATELLITE SHOWS A FEW LOW CLOUDS ABOUT 60NM S OF MAF. STILL NOT
EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP IN THE MAF OR FST AREAS. WINDS OF
15-20KTS STILL LOOK LIKELY TODAY BY 15Z-18Z. A WEAK FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO AREA EARLY TUE AM AROUND 08Z-10Z BUT LOOKS DRY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
TO SPIN ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE SLOWLY
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO RETURN WEDNESDAY
AND REMAINS OVER TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORMALLY
THIS WOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO HOT WX BY THE WEEKEND BUT ACTUALLY
HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN IN THE EXTENDED WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER LOOKING TO OFFSET THE EFFECTS OF THE RIDGE.
AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS OVER 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN...
SUNDAY CAME IN AT THE MID 90S EVEN WITH UNLIMITED SUNSHINE AND A
WEST WIND. THIS WAS DUE TO COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AS THE RIDGE
MOVED EAST THUS NOT MIXING DOWN AS WARM OF AIR. BASED ON EXPECTED
850 TEMPS TODAY NEAR 28C/82F EXPECT HIGHS TODAY AROUND 98 AT
MAF/ODO. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK BOUNDARY BETWEEN MAF AND
LBB... ETA SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH IN THIS LOCATION AT 06Z THAT DEVELOPS
INTO A SURFACE LOW NEAR CDS DURING THE DAY. THIS LOW DEVELOPS A
WEAK FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SWEEPS ACROSS. TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY THIS WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S NORTH TO UPPER 90S SOUTH. A SOUTH WIND AND WARMER
TEMPS RETURN WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING EAST OF THE AREA. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE HINTING AT
POSSIBILITY OF HIGH WIND TODAY IN THE GUADALUPE MTNS... BUT LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF WIND SPEEDS.
COULD ACTUALLY SEE RAIN THIS WEEK OVER PARTS OF W TX AND SE NM.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE IN THE EXTENDED WITH LOW POPS BEGINNING
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP QPF WITH THIS
EVENT AS REMAINS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM DRIFT UP FROM THE PACIFIC.
SOME OF THE MODELS ARE DEVELOPING WHAT LOOKS LIKE A MCS THURSDAY
NIGHT COMING OUT OF NM INTO THE WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN... IF SO SOME
LOCATIONS WOULD RECEIVE GOOD RAINFALL. EXPECT LOCATION OF RAIN WILL
CHANGE FROM MODEL RUN TO RUN SO WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR NOW.
FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WX WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE GDP MTNS TODAY WHERE
20KTS 85H-7H WINDS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO MATERIALIZE...
ESPECIALLY IN TOPOGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS. RH/S WILL AGAIN BE
WIDESPREAD IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WILL WITH BROAD THERMAL RIDGE...
TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HEAT OF THE LAST FEW
DAYS HAS REALLY DONE SOME DAMAGE TO FUEL MSTR AS SEEN IN TFS FUEL
DRYNESS NOW DEPICTING 90TH PERCENTILE DRYNESS.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN
NF/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
&&
$$
191
FXUS64 KMAF 200447
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1147 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS ISSUANCE. CURRENTLY WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS
BUT WILL INCREASE AROUND 15Z-17Z FROM THE W AT 15-18KTS. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY DECREASE TOWARD 01Z AND REMAIN BLO 10KTS THRU THE NIGHT.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
&&
$$
415
FXUS64 KMAF 192255
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
555 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING ONLY TO
INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING. 67
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH POSITIONED OVER SOUTHEAST NM AND WEST TX.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
THOSE FOR YESTERDAY DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER LOW. NEVERTHELESS...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THE
DRYLINE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE CWA AND GUSTY DRY WEST WINDS ARE
PREVAILING. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE COOLER AS THE DRYLINE
IS NOT EXPECTED TO RETREAT BACK INTO ALL EXCEPT THE EASTERN FRINGES
OF THE CWA. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ON MONDAY WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH STILL TO THE NORTH AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA. DO NOT ANTICIPATE A HIGH WIND EVENT FOR GDP FOR MONDAY FROM
LOOKING AT CROSS SECTIONS...700 MB WINDS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
THESE SOURCES INDICATE WEAKER WINDS AT 700 MB AND NOT MUCH MIXING
ABOVE THAT LEVEL. MET AND MAV GUIDANCE ARE ALSO TRENDING DOWNWARD
IN WIND SPEEDS FOR GDP ON MONDAY.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD...IT WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT
INTO THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN
CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES WITH A NE WIND SHIFT. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE WEST COAST. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS WEST
TEXAS WHICH WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN. STARTING THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO
THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS ALLOWING FOR ABOVE AVERAGE MORNING
LOWS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP PRECIP OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND SO ADDED IN SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 63 96 62 91 / 10 0 10 0
BIG SPRING TX 66 97 63 89 / 10 10 10 0
CARLSBAD NM 61 95 60 90 / 10 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 72 98 69 98 / 0 10 10 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 66 97 65 95 / 10 0 10 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 62 88 60 87 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 62 94 59 88 / 10 0 0 0
MARFA TX 50 87 47 86 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 64 97 63 92 / 10 10 10 0
ODESSA TX 63 96 64 88 / 0 10 10 0
WINK TX 62 100 62 96 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... BORDEN...CRANE...ECTOR...GLASSCOCK...
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...LOVING...MARTIN...MIDLAND...
MITCHELL...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...SCURRY...
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...WARD...WINKLER.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
&&
$$
70/80
047
FXUS64 KMAF 191741
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1241 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 19/18Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
CAVU CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH 20/18Z.
BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS (WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS) THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN
AROUND MID MORNING MONDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS ISSUANCE. CURRENTLY WINDS MOSTLY
5-10KTS BUT WILL INCREASE AROUND 15Z-17Z FROM THE W AND AT LEAST
BRIEFLY NEAR 20KTS AFTER 20Z AT MAF/INK/PEQ. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE TOWARD 01Z AND REMAIN BLO 10KTS THRU THE NIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...
WITH UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE ROCKIES TODAY... TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY. THIS LOW WILL
SPIN ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE AN UPPER
RIDGE RETURNS MID WEEK. THIS RIDGE STRETCHING FROM TEXAS TO CANADA
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
AS A SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE DRAGS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THE WIND
WILL BECOME WESTERLY ACROSS THE AREA. WESTERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE
MONDAY AS A SURFACE LOW SITS NEAR CDS. IT DOES APPEAR THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY WHICH
SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER THE COOL DOWN WILL
BE BRIEF AS SOUTHERLY WIND RETURNS BY THAT NIGHT. NORMAL HIGHS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE UPPER 80S SO EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALL WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S BUT BELOW 100 FOR MOST
OF THE REGION. DRYLINE MOVING BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL
KEEP NIGHTTIME LOWS FROM COOLING MUCH BUT ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPS TO
HEAT QUICKLY. WILL GO WELL OVER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS AND THIS MAY
STILL NOT BE WARM ENOUGH.
THE WEST WIND LOOKS TO PUSH THE DRYLINE TOO FAR EAST TO HAVE ANY
STORMS DEVELOP ALONG IT IN OUR AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RAIN CHANCES
IN THE EXTENDED ALSO NOT LOOKING AS GOOD AS THEY DID 24HRS AGO AS
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF PRECIP SOMEWHAT. MODEL QPF STILL DEVELOP SOME
PRECIP OVER THE AREA STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY BUT
MUCH LESS COVERAGE. WILL LEAVE ISOLATED POPS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE REGION BUT NOT INTRODUCE ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN
CHANCES.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MAY BE NEAR REACHING HIGH WIND CRITERIA
AT GDP ON MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH... HAVE PUSHED WIND SPEEDS DOWN A LITTLE TO STAY BELOW
WARNING CRITERIA BUT IT MAY BE CLOSE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE WARNING.
FIRE WEATHER...
MORE CRITICAL FIRE WX IS EXPECTED TODAY HOWEVER LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
A LITTLE WEAKER THAN THOSE ON SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS AROUND
5KFT WILL COME OUT FROM VAN HORN TO THE GDP MTNS ALONG/NEAR I-20.
HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL THE WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR SE NM AND THE
NW PB AS MODELS DEPICT A LULL IN THE 5KFT THERE. HAVE UPGRADED WATCH
TO A WARNING ELSEWHERE...FOR THE MOST WINDS ACROSS THE PB WILL BE
15-25 MPH AND 15-30 IN THE GDP MTNS WITH SINGLE DIGIT RH/S ALONG
WITH EXTREME FIRE DANGER.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... BORDEN...CRANE...ECTOR...GLASSCOCK...
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...LOVING...MARTIN...MIDLAND...
MITCHELL...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...SCURRY...
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...WARD...WINKLER.
&&
$$
70
184
FXUS64 KMAF 191117
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
617 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS ISSUANCE. CURRENTLY WINDS MOSTLY
5-10KTS BUT WILL INCREASE AROUND 15Z-17Z FROM THE W AND AT LEAST
BRIEFLY NEAR 20KTS AFTER 20Z AT MAF/INK/PEQ. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE TOWARD 01Z AND REMAIN BLO 10KTS THRU THE NIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...
WITH UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE ROCKIES TODAY... TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY. THIS LOW WILL
SPIN ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE AN UPPER
RIDGE RETURNS MID WEEK. THIS RIDGE STRETCHING FROM TEXAS TO CANADA
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
AS A SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE DRAGS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THE WIND
WILL BECOME WESTERLY ACROSS THE AREA. WESTERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE
MONDAY AS A SURFACE LOW SITS NEAR CDS. IT DOES APPEAR THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY WHICH
SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER THE COOL DOWN WILL
BE BRIEF AS SOUTHERLY WIND RETURNS BY THAT NIGHT. NORMAL HIGHS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE UPPER 80S SO EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALL WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S BUT BELOW 100 FOR MOST
OF THE REGION. DRYLINE MOVING BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL
KEEP NIGHTTIME LOWS FROM COOLING MUCH BUT ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPS TO
HEAT QUICKLY. WILL GO WELL OVER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS AND THIS MAY
STILL NOT BE WARM ENOUGH.
THE WEST WIND LOOKS TO PUSH THE DRYLINE TOO FAR EAST TO HAVE ANY
STORMS DEVELOP ALONG IT IN OUR AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RAIN CHANCES
IN THE EXTENDED ALSO NOT LOOKING AS GOOD AS THEY DID 24HRS AGO AS
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF PRECIP SOMEWHAT. MODEL QPF STILL DEVELOP SOME
PRECIP OVER THE AREA STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY BUT
MUCH LESS COVERAGE. WILL LEAVE ISOLATED POPS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE REGION BUT NOT INTRODUCE ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN
CHANCES.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MAY BE NEAR REACHING HIGH WIND CRITERIA
AT GDP ON MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH... HAVE PUSHED WIND SPEEDS DOWN A LITTLE TO STAY BELOW
WARNING CRITERIA BUT IT MAY BE CLOSE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE WARNING.
FIRE WEATHER...
MORE CRITICAL FIRE WX IS EXPECTED TODAY HOWEVER LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
A LITTLE WEAKER THAN THOSE ON SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS AROUND
5KFT WILL COME OUT FROM VAN HORN TO THE GDP MTNS ALONG/NEAR I-20.
HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL THE WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR SE NM AND THE
NW PB AS MODELS DEPICT A LULL IN THE 5KFT THERE. HAVE UPGRADED WATCH
TO A WARNING ELSEWHERE...FOR THE MOST WINDS ACROSS THE PB WILL BE
15-25 MPH AND 15-30 IN THE GDP MTNS WITH SINGLE DIGIT RH/S ALONG
WITH EXTREME FIRE DANGER.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM CDT /1 PM MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM
CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
BORDEN...CRANE...ECTOR...GLASSCOCK...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...
HOWARD...LOVING...MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...REEVES
COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...SCURRY...VAN HORN AND
HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...WARD...WINKLER.
&&
$$
891
FXUS64 KMAF 190532
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1232 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
LITTLE CHANGE THRU THE NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS. W WINDS INCREASE
AROUND 15Z-17Z WITH TROF E. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE IN THE
EVENING.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN
NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...BORDEN...CRANE...DAWSON...
ECTOR...GAINES...GLASSCOCK...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...
LOVING...MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...REEVES COUNTY AND
UPPER TRANS PECOS...SCURRY...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54
CORRIDOR...WARD...WINKLER.
&&
$$
825
FXUS64 KMAF 182246
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
546 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
DRYLINE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTY WILL DIMINISH
TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST AND INCREASE AGAIN TO 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTY
BY MID SUNDAY MORNING.
12
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WESTERN U.S.
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF
THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM HAS RESULTED IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN.
VERY DRY SOUTHWEST TO WEST DOWNSLOPE SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES AND
NEAR RECORD HEAT.
THE BIG QUESTION IN THE SHORT TERM IS HOW FAR EASTWARD THE DRYLINE
WILL MIX THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z KMAF SOUNDING INDICATED A VERY
SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE. THE DRYLINE QUICKLY MOVED
EAST OF MIDLAND. CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE TTU MESONET
SHOW THAT THE DRYLINE HAS MIXED TO NEAR A FLUVANNA TO ST. LAWRENCE
LINE AT PRESENT TIME. PRIMARY INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE DRYLINE WILL
MIX FARTHER TO THE EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
SPC HAS KEPT THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA FROM JUST EAST OF MIDLAND
TO JUST WEST OF SANDERSON. HOWEVER...THEY HAVE ADJUSTED THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA FARTHER EAST. I WOULD TEND TO AGREE WITH THIS
ASSESSMENT. A 700 MB THERMAL RIDGE IS WELL ENTRENCHED OVER THE CWA
AND AREAS ON THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE CWA HAVE FORECAST 700 MB
TEMPS OF 13-14C AT 00Z THIS EVENING. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO
OVERCOME A CAP LIKE THAT...PROBABLY WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MORE TIME FOR DRIER AIR MIX FARTHER EASTWARD....WHICH
OF COURSE WILL DECREASE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN
OUR AREA AND CERTAINLY DIMINISH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. WHILE THE
SPC MESOANALYSIS DOES SHOW AROUND 2000 J/KG CAPE OVER SCURRY COUNTY
PRESENTLY...DEVELOPMENT IS NOT YET SEEN VIA RADAR OR SATELLITE.
FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW ORDER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS AND EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN. IF A
THUNDERSTORM DOES DEVELOP...THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
IT TO REACH STRONG LEVELS...AND WILL PLACE THAT WORDING IN TODAY`S
GRAPHIC.
WE START TO SEE SOME INTERESTING CHANCES BY MID WEEK. INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SOUTHEAST SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
COUPLED WITH POTENTIAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM
ALVIN COULD ALLOW FOR INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
FOR NOW...WE HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT POP GRIDS
FORECAST AND RE-EVALUATE RAIN POTENTIAL WITH LATER SHIFTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 63 95 60 95 / 0 0 10 0
BIG SPRING TX 66 96 61 97 / 10 0 10 0
CARLSBAD NM 65 95 62 96 / 0 0 10 0
DRYDEN TX 68 100 67 101 / 10 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 68 97 65 98 / 10 0 10 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 61 87 60 88 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 60 93 59 93 / 0 0 10 0
MARFA TX 50 87 48 89 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 64 95 62 97 / 0 0 10 0
ODESSA TX 66 95 63 96 / 0 0 0 0
WINK TX 63 101 61 101 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN
NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST
PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...BORDEN...CRANE...
DAWSON...ECTOR...GAINES...GLASSCOCK...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...
HOWARD...LOVING...MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...REEVES
COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...SCURRY...VAN HORN AND
HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...WARD...WINKLER.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...BORDEN...DAWSON...GAINES...
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...LOVING...MARTIN...REEVES
COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54
CORRIDOR.
&&
$$
80/03
113
FXUS64 KMAF 181713
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1213 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING IN
STRENGTH THIS EVENING. MOSTLY WEST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT FOR
SUNDAY WITH STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY THAT HAS BROUGHT HOT
WEATHER TO THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO BE DISPLACED TODAY BY AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY WITH A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE ROTATING DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH MONDAY AND PASSING OVER THE AREA TUESDAY.
THE NEXT UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
MAF HIT A DAILY RECORD HIGH YESTERDAY AT 103 DEGREES WITH A 40
DEGREE DIURNAL RANGE IN THE DRY AIR. AS SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE PUSHES
EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THE WIND WILL COME AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST WHICH IS A WARM PATTERN. OVERNIGHT TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO FALL OFF THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE THE HOT TEMPERATURES
TODAY... MAY TIE A RECORD HIGH AT MAF AGAIN TODAY... BUT SHOULD BE A
COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT MID 90S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT COOLING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.
SOME MOISTURE HAS RETURNED TO THE EASTERN CWA. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED
ISOLD POPS IN THE FAR EAST TODAY AS COULD BE A STORM OR TWO DEVELOP
ALONG A DRYLINE. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE
BUT MOST STORMS SHOULD BE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. NOT MUCH CHANGE
OF RAIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK
AS THE REMAINS OF PACIFIC STORM ALVIN MOVE UP ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL
QPF DEVELOPS PRECIP OVER SEVERAL DAYS... WILL START WITH INTRODUCING
LOW POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND GO FROM THERE.
FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WX IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE FAR WRN CWFA...SE
NM...UPPER TRANS PECOS...AND NRN PB. 25KT WINDS AT AROUND 5KFT WILL
COME OUT ACROSS THE DESCRIBED AREA AND WITH THE BETTER MSLP GRADIENT
ACROSS SE NM/NRN PB SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND 20-30 MPH MTNS...MAINLY AFTER 3 PM AND UNTIL AROUND 8
PM...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING. FIRE DANGER WILL BE
VERY HIGH TO EXTREME WHILE FUEL DRYNESS MAPS SUPPORT DRY TO VERY DRY
FUELS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE IN A DRY/UNSTABLE STATE AS SEEN BY
DEEP MIXING HEIGHTS AND HAINES INDICES OF 5 TO 6. SINGLE DIGIT RH/S
WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH HIGH TEMPS STILL ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. BRIEF RF WX WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MIDLAND/ODESSA AREA
ESPECIALLY IF MSLP GRADIENT IS A LITTLE TIGHTER FARTHER S.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST
PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...BORDEN...DAWSON...GAINES...
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...LOVING...MARTIN...REEVES
COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54
CORRIDOR.
&&
$$
99
442
FXUS64 KMAF 181123
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
623 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
S WINDS AROUND 10-15KTS HAVE PERSISTED AT FST/MAF WITH WINDS LESS
THAN 5KTS AT HOB/INK/PEQ/CNM. WINDS WILL TURN W-SW BY 17Z AT MOST
SITES AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15KTS BY 20Z. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
FAVORED AROUND 00Z WITH 15-20KTS AT CNM/HOB/MAF. VFR CONDITIONS
WITH MAINLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY THAT HAS BROUGHT HOT
WEATHER TO THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO BE DISPLACED TODAY BY AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY WITH A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE ROTATING DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH MONDAY AND PASSING OVER THE AREA TUESDAY.
THE NEXT UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
MAF HIT A DAILY RECORD HIGH YESTERDAY AT 103 DEGREES WITH A 40
DEGREE DIURNAL RANGE IN THE DRY AIR. AS SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE PUSHES
EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THE WIND WILL COME AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST WHICH IS A WARM PATTERN. OVERNIGHT TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO FALL OFF THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE THE HOT TEMPERATURES
TODAY... MAY TIE A RECORD HIGH AT MAF AGAIN TODAY... BUT SHOULD BE A
COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT MID 90S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT COOLING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.
SOME MOISTURE HAS RETURNED TO THE EASTERN CWA. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED
ISOLD POPS IN THE FAR EAST TODAY AS COULD BE A STORM OR TWO DEVELOP
ALONG A DRYLINE. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE
BUT MOST STORMS SHOULD BE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. NOT MUCH CHANGE
OF RAIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK
AS THE REMAINS OF PACIFIC STORM ALVIN MOVE UP ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL
QPF DEVELOPS PRECIP OVER SEVERAL DAYS... WILL START WITH INTRODUCING
LOW POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND GO FROM THERE.
FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WX IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE FAR WRN CWFA...SE
NM...UPPER TRANS PECOS...AND NRN PB. 25KT WINDS AT AROUND 5KFT WILL
COME OUT ACROSS THE DESCRIBED AREA AND WITH THE BETTER MSLP GRADIENT
ACROSS SE NM/NRN PB SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND 20-30 MPH MTNS...MAINLY AFTER 3 PM AND UNTIL AROUND 8
PM...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING. FIRE DANGER WILL BE
VERY HIGH TO EXTREME WHILE FUEL DRYNESS MAPS SUPPORT DRY TO VERY DRY
FUELS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE IN A DRY/UNSTABLE STATE AS SEEN BY
DEEP MIXING HEIGHTS AND HAINES INDICES OF 5 TO 6. SINGLE DIGIT RH/S
WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH HIGH TEMPS STILL ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. BRIEF RF WX WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MIDLAND/ODESSA AREA
ESPECIALLY IF MSLP GRADIENT IS A LITTLE TIGHTER FARTHER S.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM CDT /1 PM MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
ANDREWS...BORDEN...DAWSON...GAINES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...
HOWARD...LOVING...MARTIN...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS
PECOS...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
&&
$$
795
FXUS64 KMAF 180530
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1230 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE NIGHT WITH WINDS DECREASING THRU
12Z. SW-W WINDS BY AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS NEAR 15-20KTS AS SFC PRESSURE
FALLS IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEVELOPING LEE TROF.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 9 AM MDT SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...
BORDEN...DAWSON...GAINES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...
LOVING...MARTIN...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...VAN
HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
&&
$$
071
FXUS64 KMAF 172247
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
547 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH BASED FEW TO
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. SOUTH WINDS
OF 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY BY MID
SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.
12
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THRU THE WRN
CONUS...AMPLIFYING A RIDGE OVER WEST TEXAS/SE NM AND RESULTING IN
ANOTHER DAY OF TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPS. KMAF WAS 99F AT 18Z.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST IN
RESPONSE TO THE INCOMING TROUGH...AND TEMPS DROP INTO ONLY THE UPPER
90S SATURDAY. INCREASING SW FLOW W/THE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN UP A
DRYLINE OVER THE EXTREME ERN EDGE OF THE FA
SATURDAY...W/SINGLE-DIGIT RH/S TO THE WEST RESULTING IN CRITICAL
FIRE WX CONDITIONS FOR THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA. TODAY/S MODELS
AREN/T QUITE AS STRONG ON WINDS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES AS 24 HRS
AGO...BUT STRONG ENOUGH FOR FIRE WX CONCERNS NEVERTHELESS. CURRENT
FIRE WX WATCH LOOKS REASONABLE...AND WE/LL LET THE MORNING SHIFT
MAKE THE FINAL CALL ON WHERE TO ISSUE THE RFW.
OTHERWISE...A SECONDARY TROUGH IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW THE FIRST...AND
SWING THRU THE PANHANDLES TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A FIRE WX THREAT
OVER THE NW ZONES INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...BUT KEEP THE
UPPER RIDGE FROM REASSERTING ITSELF...AND TEMPERATURES AT BAY. IN
FACT...W/THE PASSAGE OF THE SECONDARY TROUGH...MODELS ATTEMPT TO
BRING A WEAK FRONT INTO THE NE ZONES TUESDAY...BUT W/LITTLE EFFECT.
BIGGEST CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL BE TO TREND TEMPS A
LITTLE COOLER INTO THE EXTENDED...AS MODEL THICKNESSES HAVE DECREASED OVER
WHAT THEY WERE 24 HRS AGO. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TREND THE THERMAL
RIDGE A LITTLE FURTHER WEST EACH DAY...TO ROUGHLY OVER KELP BY
MIDWEEK. THUS...A REPRIEVE ON THE WARMER TEMPS FOR NOW. WE/LL
BEGIN TRENDING DOWN...BUT NOT AS COOL AS THE MOS NUMBERS JUST YET.
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK SCANT. MODELS BEGIN REBUILDING THE
RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK...W/THE LATEST
ECMWF DEVELOPING CONVECTION EACH DAY IN SW FLOW ALOFT BEGINNING
THURSDAY. WE/LL KEEP THE GRIDS DRY...BUT KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 66 98 59 96 / 0 0 0 0
BIG SPRING TX 73 98 60 97 / 0 0 10 0
CARLSBAD NM 67 94 60 93 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 72 99 67 98 / 0 0 10 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 69 97 61 96 / 0 0 10 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 63 86 59 86 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 61 95 55 92 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA TX 53 86 48 85 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 69 97 62 95 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 72 98 65 95 / 0 0 0 0
WINK TX 63 100 62 98 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...BORDEN...
DAWSON...GAINES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...LOVING...
MARTIN...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...VAN HORN AND
HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
&&
$$
72/44
217
FXUS64 KMAF 171729
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1229 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY STREAM ACROSS
TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS
AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE S/SW AT OR UNDER 12 KTS...BUT
WILL INCREASE AND VEER TO THE SW/W TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE MOVEMENT OF A SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
THIS FORECAST CAN BE SUMMED UP IN A COUPLE WORDS: HOT AND DRY.
RECORD HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND 850 MB TEMPS INCH UP OVER 30 C.
TODAY`S RECORD HIGH AT MIDLAND INTL OF 101 SET BACK IN 2001
SHOULD EASILY BE BROKEN. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE WEST
COAST THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND. LOWERING HEIGHTS AND SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT SHOULD BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH SWINGS BY TO OUR NORTH. WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE FIRE WX
WATCH FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR SE NM...THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN. IT NOW
APPEARS ANY STORMS FORMING ALONG THE DRYLINE SATURDAY EVENING
WILL STAY EAST OF OUR AREA.
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A S/W AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OFFERS SOME BRIEF RELIEF TUESDAY. WEAK UPPER
RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
BACK INTO THE 90S AND 100S. LONG RANGE MODELS DO SHOW SOME HOPE LATE
NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE STORM SYSTEM ENTERS THE WEST COAST. THIS COULD
ALLOW THE DRYLINE TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE WITH CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
AREA NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...BORDEN...
DAWSON...GAINES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...LOVING...
MARTIN...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...VAN HORN AND
HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
&&
$$
13
386
FXUS64 KMAF 171116
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
616 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
LIGHT WIND AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING. LITTLE
CHANGE EXPECTED BUT WINDS WILL TURN SW-W TO S-SE LATER TODAY WITH
AN INCREASE EARLY EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
THIS FORECAST CAN BE SUMMED UP IN A COUPLE WORDS: HOT AND DRY.
RECORD HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND 850 MB TEMPS INCH UP OVER 30 C.
TODAY`S RECORD HIGH AT MIDLAND INTL OF 101 SET BACK IN 2001
SHOULD EASILY BE BROKEN. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE WEST
COAST THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND. LOWERING HEIGHTS AND SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT SHOULD BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH SWINGS BY TO OUR NORTH. WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE FIRE WX
WATCH FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR SE NM...THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN. IT NOW
APPEARS ANY STORMS FORMING ALONG THE DRYLINE SATURDAY EVENING
WILL STAY EAST OF OUR AREA.
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A S/W AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OFFERS SOME BRIEF RELIEF TUESDAY. WEAK UPPER
RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
BACK INTO THE 90S AND 100S. LONG RANGE MODELS DO SHOW SOME HOPE LATE
NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE STORM SYSTEM ENTERS THE WEST COAST. THIS COULD
ALLOW THE DRYLINE TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE WITH CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
AREA NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...BORDEN...
DAWSON...GAINES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...LOVING...
MARTIN...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...VAN HORN AND
HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
&&
$$
534
FXUS64 KMAF 170519
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1219 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WINDS
MOSTLY BELOW 12KTS WITH A LOOSE MSLP GRADIENT. LIGHT W-SW WINDS
BECOMING SE BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...BORDEN...
DAWSON...GAINES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...LOVING...
MARTIN...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...VAN HORN AND
HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
&&
$$
230
FXUS64 KMAF 162310
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
610 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY WILL DIMINISH BY
SUNSET AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 MPH OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUE FRIDAY MORNING.
12
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
DISCUSSION...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE
ARKLATEX...ALLOWING BROAD...FLAT RIDGING TO BUILD INTO WEST TEXAS/SE
NM. LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH...W/LITTLE CU DEVELOPMENT NOTED ON THE VISIBLE LOOP. SFC
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE DRYLINE JUST EAST OF THE CWA AND AFTERNOON TEMPS
APPROACHING THE TRIPLE DIGITS. FRIDAY...THE THERMAL RIDGE DOESN/T
MOVE MUCH...AND MODELS EVEN STRENGTHEN IT OVER TODAY...FOR THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR.
MEANWHILE...A TROUGH OFF THE PACNW COAST WILL BEGIN AMPLIFYING/
DIGGING INTO THE WRN CONUS...POSITIVELY TILTING AND REACHING THE
FOUR CORNERS BY 18Z SATURDAY OR SO. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
SW FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...PROMPTING FIRE WX CONCERNS...AS MODELS SHOW
BETTER MOISTURE TO LIE ACROSS THE DRYLINE/EXTREME ERN ZONES BY 18Z
SATURDAY. SEE FIRE WX DISCUSSION BELOW. TIMING OF THE TROUGH MAY
BE FAST ENOUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE BEFORE IT
CLEARS THE ERN ZONES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE WINDOW WILL BE
SHORT...W/THE DRYLINE PROGGED TO BE EAST OF THE AREA AFTER
00Z.
OTHERWISE...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW THE TROUGH...AS
MODELS DEVELOP A SECONDARY...WEAKER ONE BEHIND THE FIRST. NET
EFFECT OF THIS WILL BE TO KEEP THE UPPER RIDGE FROM
REDEVELOPING...AND KEEP TEMPS IN THE COOLER 90S AS OPPOSED TO TRIPLE
DIGITS. IN THE EXTENDED RANGE MODELS...THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SECONDARY TROUGH...AND DIGS IT A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH AS IT FOLLOWS THE FIRST. THIS MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL FIRE
WX CONCERNS LATER IN THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS HAVE FINALLY INCREASED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS TO MEET
RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS. CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THIS AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING WHEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BE THE NORM AREAWIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND AFTERNOON
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL PLUMMET TO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
FRIDAY...20 FOOT WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH 20 MPH SO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOWER. THIS WILL CHANGE SATURDAY AS AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING WIND SPEEDS
TO RESULT IN NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 62 101 63 97 / 0 0 10 0
BIG SPRING TX 57 103 72 98 / 0 0 0 10
CARLSBAD NM 60 102 66 94 / 0 0 10 0
DRYDEN TX 67 104 71 97 / 0 0 10 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 67 104 67 98 / 0 10 10 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 66 91 61 84 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 60 100 64 94 / 0 0 10 0
MARFA TX 52 92 50 86 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 63 103 66 98 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 70 102 70 96 / 0 0 10 0
WINK TX 61 105 63 99 / 0 0 10 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...BORDEN...
DAWSON...GAINES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...LOVING...
MARTIN...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...VAN HORN AND
HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
&&
$$
27/44
867
FXUS64 KMAF 161738
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1238 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES. SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CALM TO BELOW 10KT TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING MAINLY FOR
THE NORTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TO THE
EAST OF THE TERMINALS.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HOT
TEMPERATURES WITH OCCASIONAL FIRE DANGER. UPPER RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE THE REST OF THIS WEEK WITH TODAY AND FRIDAY FEATURING THE
WARMEST TEMPS SO FAR THIS YEAR. 850 MB TEMPS NEAR 30C WILL TRANSLATE
TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S AND LOW 100S AREAWIDE. WE MAY EVEN FLIRT
WITH RECORDS BOTH DAYS AT MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT: TODAY...102 SET IN
2000 AND 1996; FRIDAY...101 SET IN 2001. A STRONG CAP SHOULD PREVENT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER A FEW STORMS
COULD FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AS A
DISTURBANCE NOW OVER AZ MOVES ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. HAVE INCLUDED
ISOLATED POPS IN WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH BROADENS
ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. W TX AND SE NM WILL REMAIN AT THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SO NOT MUCH RELIEF
IS EXPECTED OTHER THAN HIGH TEMPERATURES COOLING A COUPLE DEGREES
THIS WEEKEND. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE EASTERN PERMIAN
BASIN SATURDAY EVENING AS THE DRYLINE BECOMES MORE ACTIVE.
HAVE WARMED TEMPERATURES A BIT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
MODELS NOW SUGGEST A WEAKER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF COOLING BEHIND IT.
FIRE WX...
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK, ALONG
WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AFTERNOON RH`S DROPPING TO 5 TO 15 PERCENT ON A ROUTINE
BASIS STARTING TODAY. SINCE UPPER RIDGING WILL BE PREVALENT TODAY
AND FRIDAY, 20 FOOT WINDS WILL ONLY RISE TO 20 MPH OR GREATER IN THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS TODAY, AND STRUGGLE TO DO SO FRIDAY. THEREFORE,
WILL UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN THE GUADALUPE`S TO A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR LATE THIS MORNING TO THIS EVENING. WILL NOT CARRY ANY
HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY DUE TO LESSER WINDS THAN
TODAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY, THE FIRE DANGER WILL BE VERY HIGH TO
EXTREME AREAWIDE DURING THIS HOT SPELL.
THE HAINES INDEX WILL BE VERY HIGH OVER THE GUADALUPE`S AND SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO PLAINS TODAY, AND OVER THE SAME AREAS TONIGHT ALONG WITH
THE PERMIAN BASIN. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT
ONLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN WILL HAVE ANY CHANCE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BREAKDOWN THE UPPER RIDGE
SATURDAY AND RESULT IN STRONGER 20 FOOT WINDS OVER THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS, SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS AND NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN.
AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
&&
$$
27
821
FXUS64 KMAF 161125
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
625 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL AFFECT ALL THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CALMING DOWN
THIS EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HOT
TEMPERATURES WITH OCCASIONAL FIRE DANGER. UPPER RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE THE REST OF THIS WEEK WITH TODAY AND FRIDAY FEATURING THE
WARMEST TEMPS SO FAR THIS YEAR. 850 MB TEMPS NEAR 30C WILL TRANSLATE
TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S AND LOW 100S AREAWIDE. WE MAY EVEN FLIRT
WITH RECORDS BOTH DAYS AT MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT: TODAY...102 SET IN
2000 AND 1996; FRIDAY...101 SET IN 2001. A STRONG CAP SHOULD PREVENT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER A FEW STORMS
COULD FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AS A
DISTURBANCE NOW OVER AZ MOVES ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. HAVE INCLUDED
ISOLATED POPS IN WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH BROADENS
ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. W TX AND SE NM WILL REMAIN AT THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SO NOT MUCH RELIEF
IS EXPECTED OTHER THAN HIGH TEMPERATURES COOLING A COUPLE DEGREES
THIS WEEKEND. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE EASTERN PERMIAN
BASIN SATURDAY EVENING AS THE DRYLINE BECOMES MORE ACTIVE.
HAVE WARMED TEMPERATURES A BIT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
MODELS NOW SUGGEST A WEAKER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF COOLING BEHIND IT.
FIRE WX...
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK, ALONG
WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AFTERNOON RH`S DROPPING TO 5 TO 15 PERCENT ON A ROUTINE
BASIS STARTING TODAY. SINCE UPPER RIDGING WILL BE PREVALENT TODAY
AND FRIDAY, 20 FOOT WINDS WILL ONLY RISE TO 20 MPH OR GREATER IN THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS TODAY, AND STRUGGLE TO DO SO FRIDAY. THEREFORE,
WILL UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN THE GUADALUPE`S TO A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR LATE THIS MORNING TO THIS EVENING. WILL NOT CARRY ANY
HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY DUE TO LESSER WINDS THAN
TODAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY, THE FIRE DANGER WILL BE VERY HIGH TO
EXTREME AREAWIDE DURING THIS HOT SPELL.
THE HAINES INDEX WILL BE VERY HIGH OVER THE GUADALUPE`S AND SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO PLAINS TODAY, AND OVER THE SAME AREAS TONIGHT ALONG WITH
THE PERMIAN BASIN. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT
ONLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN WILL HAVE ANY CHANCE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BREAKDOWN THE UPPER RIDGE
SATURDAY AND RESULT IN STRONGER 20 FOOT WINDS OVER THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS, SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS AND NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN.
AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN
NF/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
&&
$$
29
383
FXUS64 KMAF 160517
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1217 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST AVIATION IS BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AREAWIDE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AT ALL TAF SITES THURSDAY
MORNING REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE DAY. 67
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/
THE CUT OFF LOW THAT BROUGHT SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO PORTIONS OF
THE REGION YESTERDAY CONTINUES ITS SLOW MARCH TO THE NORTHEAST
TODAY. MEANWHILE A LITTLE WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY HAS BEEN ROUNDING
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAY RESULT IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE
ORIENTED NORTH-SOUTH OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SO
FAR NOTHING OF INTEREST HAS DEVELOPED HOWEVER THIS MAY CHANGE AS
WE APPROACH PEAK HEATING HERE IN A COUPLE HOURS. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL AND WOULD ONLY BRIEFLY
AFFECT THE CWA BEFORE MOVING EAST.
CONDITIONS ARE WARMER TODAY WITH TEMPERATURE READINGS EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID 90S BY MID AFTERNOON...HIGHER VALUES ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE AND PECOS VALLEYS. WE WILL HEAT UP FURTHER TOMORROW AND
FRIDAY AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 90S TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100 ON BOTH DAYS. LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
WILL SEE HIGHS NEAR AND AROUND 105.
SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS STILL EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH
THE ROCKIES RESULTING IN SOME WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS SHOULD HELP LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THE
WEEKEND. MOST UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH
HOWEVER THERE MAY BE ENOUGH TO HELP GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE DRYLINE SATURDAY EVENING. FOR NOW...KEPT PREVIOUS MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING AND THIS SHOULD LOWER HIGH TEMPS BY A FEW
DEGREES. UNFORTUNATELY NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST WITH THIS
FRONT ATTM.
FIRE WEATHER...
VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT MID/HI CLOUD HAS DEVELOPED INTO
THE GUADALUPES/VAN HORN AND THE HWY 54 CORRIDOR...PLAYING HOB W/THE
RED FLAG WARNING THERE. TRENDS SHOW CLOUD COVER PERSISTING FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...WHICH WILL INHIBIT MIXING UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AT
BEST...AND ITS HARD TO SEE CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS PERSISTING AT
ANY ONE LOCATION FOR 3 HOURS. THUS...HAVE CANCELLED THE RFW.
HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER LOOKS A LITTLE THINNER THURSDAY...AND CRITICAL
FIRE WX CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN THE GUADALUPES IN
PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW. WE/LL ISSUE A WATCH.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 9 AM MDT THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 9 AM MDT THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
&&
$$
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