Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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045
FXUS64 KMAF 122323
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
523 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
Very similar to yesterday evening...the low clouds and fog have
cleared the area this afternoon only to return tonight. Most
terminals will begin to see visibilities decrease before midnight
and then fall quickly to below a mile. KCNM and KFST will be on
the edge of the moisture so only expect a brief period of fog and
low cigs at these sites. VFR conditions will return to all
terminals by 13/19Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Not many changes to current forecast.  WV imagery shows the upper
ridge has edged into NM, w/NW flow aloft persisting over West Texas
and Southeast New Mexico.  Fog/stratus has burned off everywhere but
the Pecos Valley and portions of the Wrn Low Rolling Plains, but
another round looks likely overnight, as persistence rules.
Satellite imagery shows some CI moving thru the ridge, and this
could mitigate development somewhat, so we`ll leave it up to
subsequent shifts to issue any advisories.

Otherwise, Saturday should be similar to today, w/fog/stratus
burning off by late morning/early afternoon as the upper ridge
passes east in response to an upper trough currently making landfall
on the west coast.  This feature is set to swing inland, tilt
negatively, reach the Four Corners by 06Z Sunday, and push through
the Panhandles Sunday afternoon.  Westerlies rounding the base of
the trough will sharpen up a weak dryline Saturday night, w/return
flow maintaining 50+ dewpoints east of the dryline.  Modest height
falls and instability along and east of the dryline will result in a
slight chance of convection Saturday night, mainly over the Wrn Low
Rolling Plains.  Forecast soundings over the upper CO Valley show a
marginal hail threat.

This activity should quickly push east of the area Sunday morning,
to be replaced by a windbag Sunday afternoon as the trough passes north.
Here models are in disagreement as to just how windy, as much will
depend on how far south the trough tracks.  Attm, the NAM tracks
farthest south, and takes the trough straight thru the Texas
Panhandle, whereas other solutions track north of there.  Should the
NAM pan out, high wind warnings/advisories will be in store for the
Guadalupes and adjacent plains.  However, since the NAM is the
outlier, we`ll not take the plunge just yet, keep winds below
warning thresholds, and revisit this in 24 hours.  Regardless,
Sunday afternoon looks to be breezy.  High RH`s should mitigate any
fire wx concerns, as cooler temps arrive w/the Pac
front.

Otherwise, temps should stay near normal into next week as flow
aloft transitions from zonal to SW in response to a major trough
forecast to dig south thru CA.  Trough will send shortwaves thru the
area beginning Wednesday, increasing rain chances as the week
progresses, w/the main trough pushing thru the area Thursday night.
Thursday night will need to be watched, as successive runs of the
ECMWF keep getting colder, hinting at a chance of frozen precip nrn
zones.  For now, we`ll persist w/-SHRA.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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