Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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049
FXUS64 KMAF 152334
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
634 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Late afternoon storms continue across the west... will continue
mention of TSRA through 03z for all TAF sites except MAF and FST.
Local MVFR vsbys possible in storms. Otherwise prevailing southerly
wind will continue to the east of convective outflows.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 125 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
This morning, water vapor imagery depicted a plume of moisture
stretching across northern Mexico through eastern New Mexico
into the Texas Panhandle with a shortwave trough moving through
northwest New Mexico. Overnight, this upper trough will slowly
move into southern New Mexico and the South Plains with the
moisture plume shifting southeast ahead of the trough. Models
suggest an MCS developing near a surface trough across the western
panhandle into southeast New Mexico this afternoon and evening.
This system should move south toward the Permian Basin in the
morning. Convection will be largely elevated with limited
instability, but with precipitable water exceeding 1.50" within
the moist plume, locally heavy rain is possible. Convection will
also be possible this afternoon into the evening in the mountains.
Strong, gusty winds are possible with these storms due to a
relatively dry sub-cloud layer as shown by model soundings.

The shortwave and moisture plume will shift further south
Saturday with best chances for thunderstorms in the mountains and
southern Permian Basin. This system will continue to shift
southward Sunday and Monday resulting in decreasing rain chances
from north to south. Afternoon and evening mountain thunderstorms
will remain possible. Chances for rain will dwindle through the
rest of the week as high pressure reasserts its influence over the
region.

Temperatures this weekend will be a little cooler, but still near
seasonal norms largely due to increased cloudiness and
precipitation. Temperatures will return to levels slightly above
normal next week as high pressure builds across the area and
rain chances dwindle.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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