Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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909
FXUS64 KMAF 071439
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
839 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

.UPDATE...
Updated the forecast to lower high temperatures a few degrees
due to low clouds and fog lingering longer than previously
expected.

&&

.AVIATION...

A bit of stratus has developed this AM, resulting in LIFR
cigs/visbys KMAF, IFR KPEQ, and MVFR KHOB. These conditions should
scatter out to VFR before or by noon, and remain so until late
this evening when an arctic cold front arrives. Buffer soundings
put fropa at KMAF and KHOB around 05Z, bringing in another round
of stratus/fog. Attm, stratus/fog looks to go no lower than IFR.
Expect gusty NE winds behind the front.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 356 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...

..Turning much colder tonight with a chance for wintry
precipitation...

Fog and low clouds have developed across the region this morning as
low level moisture returns behind a front that moved through
Tuesday. There could be a few slick spots across SE NM and the
northwest Permian Basin where temperatures are near freezing. These
conditions shouldn`t last long as southwesterly low level flow kicks
in later this morning and clears out most of the moisture.

Expect a fairly nice day (compared to what`s coming) with downslope
flow helping warm temperatures into the 50`s and 60`s. Thick high
clouds will keep it from getting any warmer. To our north, Arctic
air has been gathering all week and will be released down the
Plains today following a shortwave moving across the middle of the
U.S. The front is expected to arrive across northern areas around
sunset and reach the Rio Grande by Thursday morning. Strong gap
winds are expected with the front through Guadalupe Pass so have
issued a High Wind Warning there. The coldest air so far this
season will quickly filter in with many locations dropping below
freezing within a few hours of the frontal passage. For parts of
the Permian Basin this means the first hard freeze of the season
will arrive Thursday morning. We will issue a Hard Freeze Warning
for the eastern and southern Permian Basin where a hard freeze has
not occurred yet. Further south across the Big Bend and Rio
Grande, temperatures are not expected to reach freezing until
Friday morning. More on this shortly.

As the colder air deepens overnight, a weak mid level disturbance
will pass across the region creating enough lift for precipitation
to develop. Model soundings are coming into better agreement this
morning showing mostly snow across the Permian Basin, SE NM, and the
Upper Trans Pecos. Along the I-10 corridor, expect a mix of light
freezing rain and snow. This event may give us a few travel
headaches as cold air and moisture back up against the higher
terrain. Typically in this set-up we see light icing on some of the
roadways near the I-10/I-20 split. This will be monitored closely
for a possible Winter Weather Advisory. Further north, the snow is
not expected to cause much concern with only light accumulations,
but this will be watched as well.

Clouds will be slow to clear, but temperatures are still expected
to fall below freezing for the first time this season across the
Big Bend and Rio Grande Thursday night. Have issued a Freeze Watch
for these locations. Clouds really begin to clear Friday afternoon,
but chilly temperatures will stick around for one more day with
highs generally in the 40`s. Quasi-zonal flow aloft will lead to
warming temperatures this weekend before another cold front
arrives early next week. Very cold air will remain entrenched
across the northern U.S. and models typically have a hard time
handling these airmasses. Stay tuned to the forecast as we could
see more cold air next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     56  28  33  25 /   0  20  20   0
Carlsbad                       60  29  33  23 /   0  20  20   0
Dryden                         62  41  41  31 /   0  20  20   0
Fort Stockton                  64  32  33  28 /   0  20  30   0
Guadalupe Pass                 53  26  30  23 /   0  20  20   0
Hobbs                          56  23  32  22 /   0  20  10   0
Marfa                          59  31  35  23 /   0  20  20   0
Midland Intl Airport           60  27  32  25 /   0  20  20   0
Odessa                         60  27  32  26 /   0  20  20   0
Wink                           62  30  34  25 /   0  20  20   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Freeze Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for
     Big Bend Area-Crane-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Terrell-
     Upton-Ward.

     High Wind Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM MST Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Hard Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Thursday for Ector-
     Glasscock-Howard-Midland-Mitchell-Scurry.

&&

$$

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