Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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402
FXUS64 KMAF 250555
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1255 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

PLEASE SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL 11-12Z, WHEN MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, AFFECTING KHOB, KINK, KMAF, AND KFST. HAVE
MAINTAINED GOING TEMPOS FOR THESE SITES, AND EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES BY 14-15Z. BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KT POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY FOR WEST TEXAS TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MS VALLEY REGION TODAY WITH A WEAK
WESTWARD MOVING INVERTED TROUGH JUST SW OF FAR WEST TX. THIS
UPPER TROUGH HAS PROVIDED SOME WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE
WESTERN ZONES (GENERALLY WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER), RESULTING IN
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL PWATS OF 1.25-1.5 INCHES
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STORM THAT
DEVELOPS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH NEAR OR JUST AFTER SUNSET.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ONCE AGAIN TODAY AND WITH A FEW MORE HOURS OF
DAYTIME HEATING LEFT, HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR 90S MOST LOCATIONS.

THE UA INVERTED TROUGH LOOKS TO PRETTY MUCH DISSOLVE OVERNIGHT THEN
UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS HEADED INTO
THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT, EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM NEAR 90 (HIGHER
TERRAIN) TO THE UPPER 90S (PECOS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEYS). ALSO, NOT
GOING TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP DURING THIS TIME EXCEPT FOR
MAYBE A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAIN REGIONS.
MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH AND PUSH A WEAK
FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AND TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE
HIGHEST ACROSS THE FA WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW CHANCE POPS CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MAYBE
MONDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW DISTURBANCES MOVING OVER THE
AREA IN N/NW FLOW ALOFT, PROVIDING SOME WEAK LIFT TO THE CWA. A
SLOW WARMING TREND RETURNS MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK WITH
LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR RAIN FORECAST ATTM.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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