Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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787
FXUS64 KMAF 172355
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
655 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.UPDATE...Severe thunderstorms have moved to the east...therefore
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 180 has been cancelled. Any
thunderstorm activity tonight could be strong...but are expected
to remain below severe limits.

Strobin

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 621 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016/

DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Low ceilings will continue across the area through the next 24
hours. Ceilings will likely get lower around 12z. Chances of
showers and thunderstorms will increase overnight and continue
through the day Wednesday. Rain may be heavy at times which will
decrease visibilities. Winds will continue to be elevated and
gusty out of the northeast to east through most of the period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 255 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Looks like unsettled weather is in the offing for west Texas and
southeast New Mexico through Thursday as an upper level low
pressure system slowly makes its way eastward from southern
California. Ahead of this system diffluence and significant and
persistent large scale lift associated with the upper level jet
and low is expected across the region. In addition low level
moisture will be plentiful and persistent from the Gulf of Mexico
due to a stalled 850 millibar low and stationary front along the
Big Bend through Thursday. Went with good chance to likely pops
for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night across much of the
forecast area in this pattern. A few thunderstorms this evening
could be strong to severe especially across the eastern Permian
Basin and lower Trans Pecos region along and near a cold front
where shear and instability will be maximized. After this evening
the bigger concern appears to be the potential for locally heavy
rainfall across the Permian Basin Wednesday and Wednesday night
due to the slow movement of the system. Later shifts will need to
monitor this potential. Temperatures will be well below normal
through Thursday behind the front with significant clouds and
precipitation.

The upper low will exit the forecast area later Thursday and be
replaced by southwesterly flow aloft associated with the next
Pacific system for the weekend and into early next week. A dryline
is expected to form in this flow with thunderstorms possible ahead
of the dryline across portions of the Permian Basin each afternoon
and evening. Temperatures will warm to near normal values by
Friday through the rest of the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     53  61  54  71 /  70  70  70  40
Carlsbad                       52  62  51  75 /  70  70  50  20
Dryden                         64  77  62  80 /  70  40  60  30
Fort Stockton                  57  69  55  76 /  70  60  70  20
Guadalupe Pass                 46  57  47  72 /  70  70  40  10
Hobbs                          47  56  49  71 /  70  70  60  20
Marfa                          52  69  50  75 /  60  60  60  20
Midland Intl Airport           53  61  54  74 /  70  70  70  30
Odessa                         52  62  53  74 /  70  70  70  30
Wink                           57  65  53  77 /  70  70  60  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...High Wind Warning until 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ Wednesday for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

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