Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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917
FXUS64 KMAF 180531
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1231 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours due to light
rain and mist behind a cold front. An outflow boundary could
briefly shift winds from the northwest and raise CIGs at MAF
through 07Z, but overall conditions will change little.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 655 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016/

UPDATE...Severe thunderstorms have moved to the east...therefore
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 180 has been cancelled. Any
thunderstorm activity tonight could be strong...but are expected
to remain below severe limits.

Strobin

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 255 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Looks like unsettled weather is in the offing for west Texas and
southeast New Mexico through Thursday as an upper level low
pressure system slowly makes its way eastward from southern
California. Ahead of this system diffluence and significant and
persistent large scale lift associated with the upper level jet
and low is expected across the region. In addition low level
moisture will be plentiful and persistent from the Gulf of Mexico
due to a stalled 850 millibar low and stationary front along the
Big Bend through Thursday. Went with good chance to likely pops
for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night across much of the
forecast area in this pattern. A few thunderstorms this evening
could be strong to severe especially across the eastern Permian
Basin and lower Trans Pecos region along and near a cold front
where shear and instability will be maximized. After this evening
the bigger concern appears to be the potential for locally heavy
rainfall across the Permian Basin Wednesday and Wednesday night
due to the slow movement of the system. Later shifts will need to
monitor this potential. Temperatures will be well below normal
through Thursday behind the front with significant clouds and
precipitation.

The upper low will exit the forecast area later Thursday and be
replaced by southwesterly flow aloft associated with the next
Pacific system for the weekend and into early next week. A dryline
is expected to form in this flow with thunderstorms possible ahead
of the dryline across portions of the Permian Basin each afternoon
and evening. Temperatures will warm to near normal values by
Friday through the rest of the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     54  71  55  83 /  70  40  20  10
Carlsbad                       51  75  54  88 /  50  20  10   0
Dryden                         62  80  61  87 /  60  30  20  10
Fort Stockton                  55  76  58  89 /  70  20  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 47  72  55  81 /  40  10  10   0
Hobbs                          49  71  53  84 /  60  20  10   0
Marfa                          50  75  48  83 /  60  20  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           54  74  56  86 /  70  30  10  10
Odessa                         53  74  57  87 /  70  30  10   0
Wink                           53  77  56  89 /  60  20  10   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...High Wind Warning until 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/10

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