Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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523
FXUS64 KMAF 070435
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1035 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions continue through the period. A cold front will
begin to affect the terminals at the end of this TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     55  31  63  29 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       55  28  61  26 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         67  33  71  38 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  62  34  66  33 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 51  32  60  31 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          58  27  60  25 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          57  20  66  22 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           58  26  64  28 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         59  31  63  29 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           59  28  65  27 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29
633
FXUS64 KMAF 062301
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
501 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions to continue with light winds and clear skies.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1256 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows NW flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico, on the eastern side of a broad, upper-lvl ridge off the west
coast.  To the north, a trough is traversing the U.S./Canadian
border, and will send a cold front thru the region Sunday.  Timing
of the front, forecast soundings, and temp progs suggest temps
climbing to just above normal Sunday afternoon before the front
takes them back below normal Monday.  However, beginning Tuesday,
the west coast ridge begins building inland, and will send temps
back abv normal.  Temps then should peak around Thursday, feeling
more like early April than early February as temps most locations
climb into the mid-70s.  A weak cold front Thursday night will take
temps down a notch into the weekend, but not by much.

It almost goes w/out saying that, with this pattern, a chance of
rain is slim to none, and Slim just left.  However, the ridge will
make for some fairly tame wind fields, putting to rest any critical
fire wx concerns for the moment.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     31  63  29  57 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       24  61  26  55 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         33  71  38  60 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  34  66  33  55 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 32  60  31  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          27  60  25  53 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          20  66  22  55 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           26  64  28  55 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         31  63  29  55 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           24  65  27  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/29
099
FXUS64 KMAF 061856
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1256 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows NW flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico, on the eastern side of a broad, upper-lvl ridge off the west
coast.  To the north, a trough is traversing the U.S./Canadian
border, and will send a cold front thru the region Sunday.  Timing
of the front, forecast soundings, and temp progs suggest temps
climbing to just above normal Sunday afternoon before the front
takes them back below normal Monday.  However, beginning Tuesday,
the west coast ridge begins building inland, and will send temps
back abv normal.  Temps then should peak around Thursday, feeling
more like early April than early February as temps most locations
climb into the mid-70s.  A weak cold front Thursday night will take
temps down a notch into the weekend, but not by much.

It almost goes w/out saying that, with this pattern, a chance of
rain is slim to none, and Slim just left.  However, the ridge will
make for some fairly tame wind fields, putting to rest any critical
fire wx concerns for the moment.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     31  63  29  57 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       24  61  26  55 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         33  71  38  60 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  34  66  33  55 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 32  60  31  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          27  60  25  53 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          20  66  22  55 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           26  64  28  55 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         31  63  29  55 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           24  65  27  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

84/44
985
FXUS64 KMAF 061747
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1147 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions under clear skies will prevail the next 24 hours.
Light W/SW winds will continue, however a weak cold front is
expected to edge into northern portions of the area during the
last 6 hours of the forecast period, accompanied by a wind shift
to the NW. Have included mention at CNM and HOB for now, with
wind speeds expected to remain AOB 12KT for the duration.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 322 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...
This morning W TX/SE NM is on backside of upper trough and east side
of upper ridge centered off the CA coast.  Another trough moves down
across the Central Plains Sunday and keeps the ridge from building
in for a few days.  By Thursday the ridge axis will shift east
crossing the Rockies on Friday.  As it does another upper trough
will move ashore the West Coast reaching NM by next Sunday.

A cold front moved through last evening with NW wind that will
come back around to the SW during the day as a new leeside trough
develops.  Have clear skies this morning with a chilly start to
the day.  Another weak front moves through Sunday.  This will put
temperatures on a roller coaster bouncing above and below 60
degrees across the central CWA.  However by midweek highs should
climb into the 70s nearly areawide as the upper ridge builds in...
could see some 80s along the Rio Grande.  Lows mostly at or below
freezing the next few mornings.  At this time still no
precipitation in the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     30  61  29  55 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       27  62  26  55 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         31  69  36  61 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  34  67  31  56 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 33  59  27  49 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          27  61  25  53 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          17  64  22  53 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           30  62  28  55 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         31  62  29  55 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           26  65  27  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
832
FXUS64 KMAF 061122
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
522 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016


.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance.

No aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions expected
at all terminals. Light west/southwest winds and clear skies through
the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 322 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...
This morning W TX/SE NM is on backside of upper trough and east side
of upper ridge centered off the CA coast.  Another trough moves down
across the Central Plains Sunday and keeps the ridge from building
in for a few days.  By Thursday the ridge axis will shift east
crossing the Rockies on Friday.  As it does another upper trough
will move ashore the West Coast reaching NM by next Sunday.

A cold front moved through last evening with NW wind that will
come back around to the SW during the day as a new leeside trough
develops.  Have clear skies this morning with a chilly start to
the day.  Another weak front moves through Sunday.  This will put
temperatures on a roller coaster bouncing above and below 60
degrees across the central CWA.  However by midweek highs should
climb into the 70s nearly areawide as the upper ridge builds in...
could see some 80s along the Rio Grande.  Lows mostly at or below
freezing the next few mornings.  At this time still no
precipitation in the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     56  30  61  29 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       60  27  62  26 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         63  31  69  36 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  61  34  67  31 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 55  33  59  27 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          56  27  61  25 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          57  17  64  22 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           57  30  62  28 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         57  31  62  29 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           61  26  65  27 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/72
239
FXUS64 KMAF 060922
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
322 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
This morning W TX/SE NM is on backside of upper trough and east side
of upper ridge centered off the CA coast.  Another trough moves down
across the Central Plains Sunday and keeps the ridge from building
in for a few days.  By Thursday the ridge axis will shift east
crossing the Rockies on Friday.  As it does another upper trough
will move ashore the West Coast reaching NM by next Sunday.

A cold front moved through last evening with NW wind that will
come back around to the SW during the day as a new leeside trough
develops.  Have clear skies this morning with a chilly start to
the day.  Another weak front moves through Sunday.  This will put
temperatures on a roller coaster bouncing above and below 60
degrees across the central CWA.  However by midweek highs should
climb into the 70s nearly areawide as the upper ridge builds in...
could see some 80s along the Rio Grande.  Lows mostly at or below
freezing the next few mornings.  At this time still no
precipitation in the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     56  30  61  29 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       60  27  62  26 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         63  31  69  36 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  61  34  67  31 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 55  33  59  27 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          56  27  61  25 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          57  17  64  22 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           57  30  62  28 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         57  31  62  29 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           61  26  65  27 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/72
561
FXUS64 KMAF 060431
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1031 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions will prevail with light winds and clear skies
through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     57  29  55  31 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       54  21  59  25 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         59  29  61  31 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  58  30  59  34 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 52  27  51  33 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          52  21  55  27 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          56  13  55  19 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           56  28  55  30 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         57  29  55  31 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           59  24  60  24 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29
120
FXUS64 KMAF 052332
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
532 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
Gusty winds behind a cold front will quickly diminish over the
next 2 hours. VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough moving thru the Panhandles at 18Z,
to be followed by a highly-amplified trough currently over the
western CONUS, which will dominate the weather in West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico into next week.  At the sfc, obs show the cold
front associated w/the aforementioned trough due to fropa KMAF in the
next hours or so, halting afternoon temps in the mid to upper 50s
most locations.  Past model performance, temp progs, and forecast
soundings suggest post-frontal CAA will keep temps below-normal over
the next few days, reinforced by another cold front Sunday.  Thus,
w/little in the way of cloud cover expected over the next few days,
and little wind save for the cold fronts, we`ve opted to generally
stick to the cooler side of guidance in the short term, w/temps
finally climbing to abv-normal by Tuesday afternoon as the west
coast ridge begins encroaching further inland.  Temps increase even
more during the latter half of the week, peaking on Thursday before
a 3rd cold front moves in late Thursday afternoon, taking temps down
a notch of Friday.

Unfortunately, this pattern portends no rain for the region into the
extended.  However, the upshot is that the ridge will result in
fairly benign wind fields, alleviating any critical fire wx concerns
for the moment.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     29  55  31  58 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       21  59  25  58 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         29  61  31  68 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  30  59  34  63 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 27  51  33  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          21  55  27  56 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          13  55  19  61 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           28  55  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         29  55  31  59 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           24  60  24  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/29
414
FXUS64 KMAF 052045
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
245 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough moving thru the Panhandles at 18Z,
to be followed by a highly-amplified trough currently over the
western CONUS, which will dominate the weather in West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico into next week.  At the sfc, obs show the cold
front associated w/the aforementioned trough due to fropa KMAF in the
next hours or so, halting afternoon temps in the mid to upper 50s
most locations.  Past model performance, temp progs, and forecast
soundings suggest post-frontal CAA will keep temps below-normal over
the next few days, reinforced by another cold front Sunday.  Thus,
w/little in the way of cloud cover expected over the next few days,
and little wind save for the cold fronts, we`ve opted to generally
stick to the cooler side of guidance in the short term, w/temps
finally climbing to abv-normal by Tuesday afternoon as the west
coast ridge begins encroaching further inland.  Temps increase even
more during the latter half of the week, peaking on Thursday before
a 3rd cold front moves in late Thursday afternoon, taking temps down
a notch of Friday.

Unfortunately, this pattern portends no rain for the region into the
extended.  However, the upshot is that the ridge will result in
fairly benign wind fields, alleviating any critical fire wx concerns
for the moment.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     29  55  31  58 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       21  59  25  58 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         29  61  31  68 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  30  59  34  63 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 27  51  33  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          21  55  27  56 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          13  55  19  61 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           28  55  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         29  55  31  59 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           24  60  24  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

70/44
429
FXUS64 KMAF 051746
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1146 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 05/18Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail UFN. Surface pressure rises around
1 mb/hr across northeastern NM this morning continues to
support a southeastward-plunging mP front -- now extending from
just east of KLBB southwest through KPEQ -- then eastward into
northern Chihuahua. Winds behind this front will be gusty
initially, with wind gusts near 25 knots commonplace. These winds
will subside around sunset, and may become light and variable
at many TAF locations as a weak surface ridge centers over the
southern High Plains. By a few hours after sunrise, expect light
winds out of the southwest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     53  26  57  32 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       52  22  61  29 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         60  31  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  57  28  61  35 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 47  24  52  35 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          50  22  56  29 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          55  17  57  19 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           54  25  58  30 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         52  25  59  33 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           55  24  61  27 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

70/44
969
FXUS64 KMAF 051121
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
521 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance.

No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected at all terminals. Fairly light southerly winds this morning
will shift to the NW early/mid afternoon as a cold front moves
through the region. Wind speeds 12-15mph sustained with higher gusts
can be expected through the remainder of the afternoon then diminish
by late evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 313 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A strong shortwave trough diving across SE NM/W TX this afternoon
will push a weak front through the area later today.  After that the
region will stay on the eastern edge of a West Coast ridge through
the weekend as a long wave trough moves down across the Central
Plains.  The ridge will slowly shift east through the middle of
next week providing mild wx for the area.

Have a dry airmass in place this morning with dewpts mainly in the
teens that will result in a chilly start to the morning but should
warm quickly. Will start the day with a mainly south wind that will
shift around to the north and become brisk during the afternoon as a
front spreads across SE NM and the western CWA. However any cool
down will be brief as a surface low over the Panhandle brings the
wind back around to the S/SW on Saturday.  So expect another chilly
morning Saturday with near normal temps by afternoon under abundant
sunshine.  Temps will bounce around for a few days before warming
into the 70s later in the week as the upper ridge moves in.

Overall expect mostly sunny/clear skies the next few days.
The forecast will remain dry with no mention of precip through next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     53  26  57  32 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       52  22  61  29 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         60  31  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  57  28  61  35 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 47  24  52  35 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          50  22  56  29 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          55  17  57  19 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           54  25  58  30 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         52  25  59  33 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           55  24  61  27 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/72
100
FXUS64 KMAF 050913
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
313 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A strong shortwave trough diving across SE NM/W TX this afternoon
will push a weak front through the area later today.  After that the
region will stay on the eastern edge of a West Coast ridge through
the weekend as a long wave trough moves down across the Central
Plains.  The ridge will slowly shift east through the middle of
next week providing mild wx for the area.

Have a dry airmass in place this morning with dewpts mainly in the
teens that will result in a chilly start to the morning but should
warm quickly. Will start the day with a mainly south wind that will
shift around to the north and become brisk during the afternoon as a
front spreads across SE NM and the western CWA. However any cool
down will be brief as a surface low over the Panhandle brings the
wind back around to the S/SW on Saturday.  So expect another chilly
morning Saturday with near normal temps by afternoon under abundant
sunshine.  Temps will bounce around for a few days before warming
into the 70s later in the week as the upper ridge moves in.

Overall expect mostly sunny/clear skies the next few days.
The forecast will remain dry with no mention of precip through next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     53  26  57  32 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       52  22  61  29 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         60  31  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  57  28  61  35 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 47  24  52  35 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          50  22  56  29 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          55  17  57  19 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           54  25  58  30 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         52  25  59  33 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           55  24  61  27 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/72
549
FXUS64 KMAF 050441
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1041 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance
Light winds overnight will increase Friday afternoon. VFR
conditions can be expected through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     54  30  57  27 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       52  20  55  23 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         58  30  59  32 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  54  30  59  28 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 45  26  47  25 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          50  21  52  23 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          51  16  55  17 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           54  28  56  26 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         53  30  54  26 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           54  25  59  24 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29
832
FXUS64 KMAF 042253
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
453 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions will remain the rule over the next 24 hrs.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 137 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Dry with a mainly northwesterly flow aloft regime will be in
place through the next seven days. Several upper level systems
will pass by to the north of the forecast area with little warm
up ahead of these systems with not much cooling expected behind
them through next Monday. High temperatures will generally be at
or slightly below normal with below normal nighttime temperatures
in this dry regime. Some warming is indicated by next Tuesday
through Thursday with above normal temperatures expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     30  57  27  61 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       20  55  23  61 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         30  59  32  65 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  30  59  28  62 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 26  47  25  54 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          21  52  23  57 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          16  55  17  57 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           28  56  26  60 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         30  54  26  61 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           25  59  24  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/29
351
FXUS64 KMAF 041937
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
137 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Dry with a mainly northwesterly flow aloft regime will be in
place through the next seven days. Several upper level systems
will pass by to the north of the forecast area with little warm
up ahead of these systems with not much cooling expected behind
them through next Monday. High temperatures will generally be at
or slightly below normal with below normal nighttime temperatures
in this dry regime. Some warming is indicated by next Tuesday
through Thursday with above normal temperatures expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     30  57  27  61 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       20  55  23  61 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         30  59  32  65 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  30  59  28  62 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 26  47  25  54 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          21  52  23  57 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          16  55  17  57 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           28  56  26  60 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         30  54  26  61 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           25  59  24  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/12
835
FXUS64 KMAF 041535
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
935 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 18Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, w/a few high clouds and
sfc flow veering to the west.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 339 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
An area of surface high pressure settling in over the region
tonight with light/variable winds and clear skies in place. By
sunrise, temperatures will drop into the teens for portions of
southeast NM and the higher terrain while other locations will
see lows in the low to mid 20s. Southerly winds return by this
afternoon, as surface high pressure shifts east, and high
temperatures will be around 5-10 degrees warmer than yesterday.
This warming trend will continue through the weekend with lows
near or below freezing most areas. A quick and weak front will
move through Friday night but a brief wind shift to the north is
all that can be expected. Another front is expected Sunday
night/Monday morning, briefly knocking temps down a few degrees
for Monday. Otherwise, dry conditions look to continue in the
extended with well above normal temperatures possible by middle
of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     30  57  28  58 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       24  54  24  60 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         32  59  33  64 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  30  58  29  60 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 28  48  26  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          25  53  24  57 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          19  55  18  55 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           31  56  27  59 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         31  56  27  59 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           27  58  25  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/12/44
629
FXUS64 KMAF 041101
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
501 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light northwest winds becoming southeast around
00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 339 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
An area of surface high pressure settling in over the region
tonight with light/variable winds and clear skies in place. By
sunrise, temperatures will drop into the teens for portions of
southeast NM and the higher terrain while other locations will
see lows in the low to mid 20s. Southerly winds return by this
afternoon, as surface high pressure shifts east, and high
temperatures will be around 5-10 degrees warmer than yesterday.
This warming trend will continue through the weekend with lows
near or below freezing most areas. A quick and weak front will
move through Friday night but a brief wind shift to the north is
all that can be expected. Another front is expected Sunday
night/Monday morning, briefly knocking temps down a few degrees
for Monday. Otherwise, dry conditions look to continue in the
extended with well above normal temperatures possible by middle
of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     54  30  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       52  24  54  24 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         58  32  59  33 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  54  30  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 45  28  48  26 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          50  25  53  24 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          51  19  55  18 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           54  31  56  27 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         53  31  56  27 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           54  27  58  25 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10
670
FXUS64 KMAF 040939
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
339 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
An area of surface high pressure settling in over the region
tonight with light/variable winds and clear skies in place. By
sunrise, temperatures will drop into the teens for portions of
southeast NM and the higher terrain while other locations will
see lows in the low to mid 20s. Southerly winds return by this
afternoon, as surface high pressure shifts east, and high
temperatures will be around 5-10 degrees warmer than yesterday.
This warming trend will continue through the weekend with lows
near or below freezing most areas. A quick and weak front will
move through Friday night but a brief wind shift to the north is
all that can be expected. Another front is expected Sunday
night/Monday morning, briefly knocking temps down a few degrees
for Monday. Otherwise, dry conditions look to continue in the
extended with well above normal temperatures possible by middle
of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     54  30  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       52  24  54  24 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         58  32  59  33 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  54  30  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 45  28  48  26 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          50  25  53  24 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          51  19  55  18 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           54  31  56  27 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         53  31  56  27 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           54  27  58  25 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

10/27
865
FXUS64 KMAF 040432
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1032 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with mostly light
winds.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 130 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Dry with a mainly northwesterly flow aloft regime will be in
place through the next seven days. Several upper level systems
will pass by to the north of the forecast area with little warm up
ahead of these systems with not much cooling expected behind them
through next Monday. High temperatures will generally be at or
slightly below normal with below normal nighttime temperatures in
this dry regime. Some warming is indicated by next Tuesday and
Wednesday with above normal temperatures expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     25  54  29  55 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       18  51  25  55 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         28  57  34  59 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  25  53  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 20  43  27  50 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          19  49  25  53 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          11  49  19  55 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           23  53  31  56 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         24  51  31  57 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           20  52  28  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/
532
FXUS64 KMAF 032246
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
446 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with light
winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 130 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Dry with a mainly northwesterly flow aloft regime will be in
place through the next seven days. Several upper level systems
will pass by to the north of the forecast area with little warm up
ahead of these systems with not much cooling expected behind them
through next Monday. High temperatures will generally be at or
slightly below normal with below normal nighttime temperatures in
this dry regime. Some warming is indicated by next Tuesday and
Wednesday with above normal temperatures expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     25  54  29  55 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       18  51  25  55 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         28  57  34  59 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  25  53  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 20  43  27  50 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          19  49  25  53 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          11  49  19  55 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           23  53  31  56 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         24  51  31  57 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           20  52  28  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/
187
FXUS64 KMAF 031930
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
130 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Dry with a mainly northwesterly flow aloft regime will be in
place through the next seven days. Several upper level systems
will pass by to the north of the forecast area with little warm up
ahead of these systems with not much cooling expected behind them
through next Monday. High temperatures will generally be at or
slightly below normal with below normal nighttime temperatures in
this dry regime. Some warming is indicated by next Tuesday and
Wednesday with above normal temperatures expected.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     25  54  29  55 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       18  51  25  55 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         28  57  34  59 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  25  53  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 20  43  27  50 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          19  49  25  53 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          11  49  19  55 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           23  53  31  56 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         24  51  31  57 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           20  52  28  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99
290
FXUS64 KMAF 031737
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1137 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Little change from previous forecast. Widespread VFR and light
winds thru the night underneath dry NW flow aloft.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 514 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Light north winds and VFR conditions this TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 324 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A cold front continues to sink south through the region tonight and
is currently located near the Pecos River Valley at the time of this
discussion. By sunrise, temperatures should drop into the 20s most
locations. Light northerly winds will hang around today with high
temperatures ranging from the mid 40s north to the mid 50s south.
The upper trough that has brought us several days of windy
conditions will finally shift east tomorrow followed by a brief
period of weak upper ridging through Thursday night. High
temperatures generally in the 50s can be expected Thursday and
Friday.

A fast-moving upper wave will move across the region Friday
followed by a weak front Friday night. Latest 00Z guidance have
all come in completely dry for west TX and southeast NM with
moisture lacking this far west. As a result, will go ahead and
remove any mention of precip Friday night/Saturday morning.
Light west winds return by Saturday afternoon and high
temperatures will warm into the 50s areawide. Another front is
expected Sunday however confidence in the timing of the front is
unclear. The GFS depicts an earlier arrival time and therefore is
the coolest with high temperatures. For now, think I`ll go halfway
between the GFS and ECMWF until a more obvious outcome is
revealed. Beyond Sunday, temperatures warm to above normal values
by Tuesday and Wednesday with dry conditions expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     48  25  55  29 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       46  20  53  25 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         56  30  59  34 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  48  26  56  30 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 40  21  47  27 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          44  21  51  25 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          46  15  52  19 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           48  24  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         48  25  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           49  22  56  28 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
681
FXUS64 KMAF 031114
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
514 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Light north winds and VFR conditions this TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 324 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A cold front continues to sink south through the region tonight and
is currently located near the Pecos River Valley at the time of this
discussion. By sunrise, temperatures should drop into the 20s most
locations. Light northerly winds will hang around today with high
temperatures ranging from the mid 40s north to the mid 50s south.
The upper trough that has brought us several days of windy
conditions will finally shift east tomorrow followed by a brief
period of weak upper ridging through Thursday night. High
temperatures generally in the 50s can be expected Thursday and
Friday.

A fast-moving upper wave will move across the region Friday
followed by a weak front Friday night. Latest 00Z guidance have
all come in completely dry for west TX and southeast NM with
moisture lacking this far west. As a result, will go ahead and
remove any mention of precip Friday night/Saturday morning.
Light west winds return by Saturday afternoon and high
temperatures will warm into the 50s areawide. Another front is
expected Sunday however confidence in the timing of the front is
unclear. The GFS depicts an earlier arrival time and therefore is
the coolest with high temperatures. For now, think I`ll go halfway
between the GFS and ECMWF until a more obvious outcome is
revealed. Beyond Sunday, temperatures warm to above normal values
by Tuesday and Wednesday with dry conditions expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     48  25  55  29 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       46  20  53  25 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         56  30  59  34 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  48  26  56  30 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 40  21  47  27 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          44  21  51  25 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          46  15  52  19 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           48  24  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         48  25  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           49  22  56  28 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10
764
FXUS64 KMAF 030924
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
324 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A cold front continues to sink south through the region tonight and
is currently located near the Pecos River Valley at the time of this
discussion. By sunrise, temperatures should drop into the 20s most
locations. Light northerly winds will hang around today with high
temperatures ranging from the mid 40s north to the mid 50s south.
The upper trough that has brought us several days of windy
conditions will finally shift east tomorrow followed by a brief
period of weak upper ridging through Thursday night. High
temperatures generally in the 50s can be expected Thursday and
Friday.

A fast-moving upper wave will move across the region Friday
followed by a weak front Friday night. Latest 00Z guidance have
all come in completely dry for west TX and southeast NM with
moisture lacking this far west. As a result, will go ahead and
remove any mention of precip Friday night/Saturday morning.
Light west winds return by Saturday afternoon and high
temperatures will warm into the 50s areawide. Another front is
expected Sunday however confidence in the timing of the front is
unclear. The GFS depicts an earlier arrival time and therefore is
the coolest with high temperatures. For now, think I`ll go halfway
between the GFS and ECMWF until a more obvious outcome is
revealed. Beyond Sunday, temperatures warm to above normal values
by Tuesday and Wednesday with dry conditions expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     48  25  55  29 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       46  20  53  25 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         56  30  59  34 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  48  26  56  30 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 40  21  47  27 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          44  21  51  25 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          46  15  52  19 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           48  24  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         48  25  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           49  22  56  28 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

10/27
675
FXUS64 KMAF 030526
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1126 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
A cold front will ease south through all area terminals tonight and
Wednesday morning.  There may be a mid level cloud deck associated
with the frontal passage, but conditions will stay VFR pre and post
frontal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     25  47  27  53 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       26  45  20  52 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         32  54  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  27  48  28  55 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 22  38  25  45 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          23  43  23  50 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          18  45  14  50 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           24  47  25  54 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         25  46  26  54 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           27  48  22  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

10
247
FXUS64 KMAF 030422
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1022 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A cold front will ease south through all area terminals tonight and
Wednesday morning.  There may be a mid level cloud deck associated
with the frontal passage, but conditions will stay VFR pre and post
frontal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     25  47  27  53 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       26  45  20  52 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         32  54  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  27  48  28  55 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 22  38  25  45 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          23  43  23  50 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          18  45  14  50 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           24  47  25  54 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         25  46  26  54 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           27  48  22  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
252
FXUS64 KMAF 022311
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
511 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below, as is an update
to let the High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory expire.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail tonight and Wednesday.  A cold front
will drop south through the region tonight, but aside from
shifting surface winds to the north, little else is expected.

&&

.UPDATE...

Will allow the High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory to expire at
03/00Z since winds will begin to decouple and surface speeds
decrease.  There are no other changes to the forecast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 239 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016/

Looks like quiet weather can be expected through Friday as a
large upper trough moves across the Plains and into the upper
Mississippi and Ohio Valley states. This trough will push a cold
front south into the forecast area tonight. Behind this front dry
and below normal temperatures are expected through Friday despite
the development of a new surface trough in the northwest to west
flow aloft.

The main feature of interest this forecast continues to be an
upper level storm system that is forecast to track from the Rocky
Mountains into west Texas Friday into Saturday. This mornings
run of the ECMWF model is now more in line with the more
progressive GFS solutions bringing the best chance of precipitation
to the area Friday night, with a quick movement of the system to
the southeast on Saturday. Will continue slight chance to chance
pops Friday night with the potential for light snow across the
southeast New Mexico Plains and the northern Permian Basin with
the approach of the system. Precipitation chances were decreased
to slight chance across mainly west Texas during the day Saturday
due to the more progressive solutions.

Behind this system mainly dry and cool northwesterly flow aloft
regime is forecast to be in place Sunday through next Tuesday.

&&

FIRE WEATHER...

A fire danger statement remains in effect the rest of the afternoon
for the Davis Mountains...Marfa Plateau...Big Bend and Lower
Trans Pecos for near critical fire wx conditions.  Rh less than
20 percent possible with 20ft winds of 15 to 20 mph.  Earlier
gusty wind should decrease as it gets closer to evening.  Improved
fire wx conditions expected Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     25  47  27  53 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       26  45  20  52 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         32  54  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  27  48  28  55 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 22  38  25  45 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          23  43  23  50 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          18  45  14  50 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           24  47  25  54 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         25  46  26  54 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           27  48  22  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Eddy County
     Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Marfa Plateau-
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

&&

$$

72/12
200
FXUS64 KMAF 022039
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
239 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Looks like quiet weather can be expected through Friday as a
large upper trough moves across the Plains and into the upper
Mississippi and Ohio Valley states. This trough will push a cold
front south into the forecast area tonight. Behind this front dry
and below normal temperatures are expected through Friday despite
the development of a new surface trough in the northwest to west
flow aloft.

The main feature of interest this forecast continues to be an
upper level storm system that is forecast to track from the Rocky
Mountains into west Texas Friday into Saturday. This mornings
run of the ECMWF model is now more in line with the more
progressive GFS solutions bringing the best chance of precipitation
to the area Friday night, with a quick movement of the system to
the southeast on Saturday. Will continue slight chance to chance
pops Friday night with the potential for light snow across the
southeast New Mexico Plains and the northern Permian Basin with
the approach of the system. Precipitation chances were decreased
to slight chance across mainly west Texas during the day Saturday
due to the more progressive solutions.

Behind this system mainly dry and cool northwesterly flow aloft
regime is forecast to be in place Sunday through next Tuesday.

.FIRE WEATHER...
A fire danger statement remains in effect the rest of the afternoon
for the Davis Mountains... Marfa Plateau... Big Bend... and Lower
Trans Pecos for near critical fire wx conditions.  Rh less than 20
percent possible with 20ft winds of 15 to 20 mph.  Earlier gusty wind
should decrease as it gets closer to evening.  Improved fire wx
conditions expected Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     25  47  27  53 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       26  45  20  52 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         32  54  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  27  48  28  55 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 22  38  25  45 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          23  43  23  50 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          18  45  14  50 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           24  47  25  54 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         25  46  26  54 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           27  48  22  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Eddy County
     Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Marfa Plateau-
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

&&

$$

72/12
661
FXUS64 KMAF 021740
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1140 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions with only a few high clouds. Gusty west wind
exceeding 30kts at some TAF sites will continue through the
afternoon and should drop off this evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 347 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The upper trough that brought such windy conditions yesterday will
move off to the northeast today. Strong winds will continue in the
Guadalupe Mountains today, and observations out of Mount Locke
show strong winds in the higher elevations of the Davis Mountains
so have issued a wind warning for there as well. To be clear,
strong winds will probably not make it to lower elevation sites
like Marfa, Fort Davis, or Alpine though it will still be very
windy nonetheless. Winds will finally diminish this evening.

The departing trough will push a cold front through tonight
shifting winds from the north and dropping lows tonight well into
the 20s for most locations not along the Rio Grande. Highs
tomorrow will be below normal then will increase Thursday and
Friday under westerly upper level flow.

Another upper trough will move into the Pacific northwest and
deepen into a low while dropping into the Four Corners region
Friday. This will bring our next chance for precipitation but how
much and whether it will be rain or snow will depend on the
strength of the approaching low. The GFS/Canadian are stronger and
slower with the low while the ECMWF/DGEX are weaker and faster.
Given the lack of amplification of the upstream ridge it seems
more likely that the low will be weaker and faster so am inclined
to lean towards the ECMWF. This would favor highest PoPs Friday
night into early Saturday with most precip being liquid except
snow in southeast New Mexico and the northern basin. Clearing
skies in the afternoon would allow temps Saturday to warm into
the 40s. However should the GFS verify then temperatures Saturday
could be as much as 10 degrees colder with snow spreading farther
south than currently indicated so this system will bear close
watching the next several days.

Sunday will be warmer but an amplifying upper pattern will bring
another strong cold front into west Texas Sunday night.

Hennig

FIRE WEATHER...
Looking at cooler temperatures and breezy conditions today, although
wind speeds will be lighter than what we saw Monday. Minimum
relative humidity values generally near 20 percent across much of
the Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions although a few locations in and
near Terrell county may see RH`s near 15 percent. West winds of 20-
30mph can be expected across most areas through mid-day.
Fortunately, winds will begin to decrease through this afternoon
however breezy west winds through this morning will likely continue
to aid any ongoing fires. Will issue a Fire Danger Statement for
the potential brief period of near critical fire weather
conditions across portions of the Lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend.
Recovery expected to be fair across the Big Bend region overnight
tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     56  25  47  27 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       52  26  45  20 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         63  32  54  30 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  55  27  48  28 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 40  22  38  25 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          49  23  43  23 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          47  18  45  14 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           54  24  47  25 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         54  25  46  26 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           55  27  48  22 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Eddy County
     Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Marfa Plateau-
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

&&

$$
237
FXUS64 KMAF 021137
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
537 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016


.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance.

No aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions will
persist at all terminals. Strong westerly winds near 20-30kt
sustained will persist through this afternoon then wind speeds begin
to diminish this evening. Otherwise, high winds near the mountain
regions will likely result in severe turbulence for low flying light
aircraft.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 347 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The upper trough that brought such windy conditions yesterday will
move off to the northeast today. Strong winds will continue in the
Guadalupe Mountains today, and observations out of Mount Locke
show strong winds in the higher elevations of the Davis Mountains
so have issued a wind warning for there as well. To be clear,
strong winds will probably not make it to lower elevation sites
like Marfa, Fort Davis, or Alpine though it will still be very
windy nonetheless. Winds will finally diminish this evening.

The departing trough will push a cold front through tonight
shifting winds from the north and dropping lows tonight well into
the 20s for most locations not along the Rio Grande. Highs
tomorrow will be below normal then will increase Thursday and
Friday under westerly upper level flow.

Another upper trough will move into the Pacific northwest and
deepen into a low while dropping into the Four Corners region
Friday. This will bring our next chance for precipitation but how
much and whether it will be rain or snow will depend on the
strength of the approaching low. The GFS/Canadian are stronger and
slower with the low while the ECMWF/DGEX are weaker and faster.
Given the lack of amplification of the upstream ridge it seems
more likely that the low will be weaker and faster so am inclined
to lean towards the ECMWF. This would favor highest PoPs Friday
night into early Saturday with most precip being liquid except
snow in southeast New Mexico and the northern basin. Clearing
skies in the afternoon would allow temps Saturday to warm into
the 40s. However should the GFS verify then temperatures Saturday
could be as much as 10 degrees colder with snow spreading farther
south than currently indicated so this system will bear close
watching the next several days.

Sunday will be warmer but an amplifying upper pattern will bring
another strong cold front into west Texas Sunday night.

Hennig

FIRE WEATHER...
Looking at cooler temperatures and breezy conditions today, although
wind speeds will be lighter than what we saw Monday. Minimum
relative humidity values generally near 20 percent across much of
the Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions although a few locations in and
near Terrell county may see RH`s near 15 percent. West winds of 20-
30mph can be expected across most areas through mid-day.
Fortunately, winds will begin to decrease through this afternoon
however breezy west winds through this morning will likely continue
to aid any ongoing fires. Will issue a Fire Danger Statement for
the potential brief period of near critical fire weather
conditions across portions of the Lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend.
Recovery expected to be fair across the Big Bend region overnight
tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     56  25  47  27 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       52  26  45  20 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         63  32  54  30 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  55  27  48  28 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 40  22  38  25 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          49  23  43  23 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          47  18  45  14 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           54  24  47  25 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         54  25  46  26 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           55  27  48  22 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this afternoon
     for Eddy County Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

     Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
     for Marfa Plateau-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

27/10/
985
FXUS64 KMAF 020947
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
347 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The upper trough that brought such windy conditions yesterday will
move off to the northeast today. Strong winds will continue in the
Guadalupe Mountains today, and observations out of Mount Locke
show strong winds in the higher elevations of the Davis Mountains
so have issued a wind warning for there as well. To be clear,
strong winds will probably not make it to lower elevation sites
like Marfa, Fort Davis, or Alpine though it will still be very
windy nonetheless. Winds will finally diminish this evening.

The departing trough will push a cold front through tonight
shifting winds from the north and dropping lows tonight well into
the 20s for most locations not along the Rio Grande. Highs
tomorrow will be below normal then will increase Thursday and
Friday under westerly upper level flow.

Another upper trough will move into the Pacific northwest and
deepen into a low while dropping into the Four Corners region
Friday. This will bring our next chance for precipitation but how
much and whether it will be rain or snow will depend on the
strength of the approaching low. The GFS/Canadian are stronger and
slower with the low while the ECMWF/DGEX are weaker and faster.
Given the lack of amplification of the upstream ridge it seems
more likely that the low will be weaker and faster so am inclined
to lean towards the ECMWF. This would favor highest PoPs Friday
night into early Saturday with most precip being liquid except
snow in southeast New Mexico and the northern basin. Clearing
skies in the afternoon would allow temps Saturday to warm into
the 40s. However should the GFS verify then temperatures Saturday
could be as much as 10 degrees colder with snow spreading farther
south than currently indicated so this system will bear close
watching the next several days.

Sunday will be warmer but an amplifying upper pattern will bring
another strong cold front into west Texas Sunday night.

Hennig

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Looking at cooler temperatures and breezy conditions today, although
wind speeds will be lighter than what we saw Monday. Minimum
relative humidity values generally near 20 percent across much of
the Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions although a few locations in and
near Terrell county may see RH`s near 15 percent. West winds of 20-
30mph can be expected across most areas through mid-day.
Fortunately, winds will begin to decrease through this afternoon
however breezy west winds through this morning will likley continue
to aid any ongoing fires. Will issue a Fire Danger Statement for the
potential brief period of near critical fire weather conditions
across portions of the Lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend. Recovery
expected to be fair across the Big Bend region overnight tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     56  25  47  27 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       52  26  45  20 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         63  32  54  30 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  55  27  48  28 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 40  22  38  25 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          49  23  43  23 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          47  18  45  14 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           54  24  47  25 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         54  25  46  26 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           55  27  48  22 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this afternoon
     for Eddy County Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

     Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
     for Marfa Plateau-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

27/10
064
FXUS64 KMAF 020352
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
952 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Sfc obs/analysis show post-frontal winds have slackened a bit,
w/vsbys everywhere back to VFR as the dust settles.  However, a
fairly tight gradient remains in place, and gusty winds most
terminals look reasonable for the next 18 hours or so, relaxing
after sunset Tuesday.  A few high clouds will move thru the region
as well.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 950 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016/

UPDATE...

Issued update to expire the Wind Advisory and High Wind Warning
across areas except the Guadalupe Mountains.

DISCUSSION...

Latest observations have shown that winds have decreased below
advisory and warning criteria in all places except the Guadalupe
Mountains so have allowed the advisories and warnings in these
areas to expire. Due to the decreasing winds, the Blowing Dust
Advisory has also been allowed to expire. Conditions are expected
to remain below advisory and warning criteria in these areas
through the night.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 239 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:15 pm CST Monday...another spring-like day
across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico replete with above
normal temps...fire wx concerns...and of course breezy/windy
conditions.

Satl imagery is indc a strong mid/upper level trof moving across
Northern New Mexico. A tightening sfc pressure gradient will
continue...if not increase the windy conditions across the area.
Latest RTMA (Real Time Mesoscale Analysis) Data is indc strong
wind gusts over the western half of the CWA...edging eastward.
Therefore...will not make any changes to the ongoing Wind and Dust
Products. Even though the H7 winds are fcst to decrease on Tuesday
tight sfc gradients will keep the winds elevated over the
Guadalupe Mtns...so have left the current High Wind Warning over
the Guadalupe Mtns for Tuesday as is.

A Pacific Cold front (which brought a quick dusting of snow to El
Paso) will move across the area tonight. Latest high resolution
fcst keep the CWA dry. Temps on Tuesday will be several degrees
below normal. As the mid/upper level trough lifts northeast a
modified Arctic front will drop south thru the Southern Plains and
bring below normal temps through the end of the week with
overnight lows in the 20s...and even a few upper teens in Northern
Lea County.

Weak shortwave ridging will move over the Central/Southern Plains
in response to a trough moving into the Pacific Northwest and
Northern California. As the trough moves east it will split with
the southern piece of energy developing a cutoff low over the
Southern Rockies by Friday evening...and over West Texas Saturday
morning. Medium range models are hinting at the possibility of
precipitation over the CWA Friday night/Saturday morning. It is
still too early to determine if the precip will be
snow...rain...or a mix but it does bear watching. Northwest flow
aloft in the wake of the upper low will bring dry weather along
with moderating temps on Sunday.

Strobin

FIRE WEATHER...Critical fire weather conditions are developing
across the Big Bend, the Trans Pecos and southern Permian Basin
this mid Monday afternoon. Would expect the northeast Permian
Basin to get in on this as well shortly for the remainder of this
afternoon as drier air and strong westerly winds surge into that
area quickly. Further west across southeast New Mexico, the
western Permian Basin, the Guadalupe Mountains and the Van Horn
Highway 54 Corridor, critical fire weather conditions are not
occurring and not expected despite strong winds due to cooler air
keeping rh/s above 15 percent the remainder of the afternoon.
Conditions should improve by early evening across the Red Flag
Warning area in west Texas as winds slacken some and nocturnal
cooling takes place with cooler air surging east behind a cold
front.

Although winds will slacken overnight they will remain elevated and
despite cooler temperatures, only fair rh recovery is expected
areawide. It will be breezy to windy in many areas again Tuesday,
but not anywhere as high as today, with isolated locations of the
Big Bend region and Lower Trans Pecos possibly ending up with near
critical fire weather conditions Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     37  58  26  47 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       36  53  26  47 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         43  66  34  57 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  38  55  29  50 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 26  43  22  41 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          31  50  24  44 /   0   0  10   0
Marfa                          26  50  19  48 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           37  55  26  46 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         38  57  26  47 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           36  57  25  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

44/80/44
172
FXUS64 KMAF 020350
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
950 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016

.UPDATE...

Issued update to expire the Wind Advisory and High Wind Warning
across areas except the Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Latest observations have shown that winds have decreased below
advisory and warning criteria in all places except the Guadalupe
Mountains so have allowed the advisories and warnings in these
areas to expire. Due to the decreasing winds, the Blowing Dust
Advisory has also been allowed to expire. Conditions are expected
to remain below advisory and warning criteria in these areas
through the night.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 239 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:15 pm CST Monday...another spring-like day
across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico replete with above
normal temps...fire wx concerns...and of course breezy/windy
conditions.

Satl imagery is indc a strong mid/upper level trof moving across
Northern New Mexico. A tightening sfc pressure gradient will
continue...if not increase the windy conditions across the area.
Latest RTMA (Real Time Mesoscale Analysis) Data is indc strong
wind gusts over the western half of the CWA...edging eastward.
Therefore...will not make any changes to the ongoing Wind and Dust
Products. Even though the H7 winds are fcst to decrease on Tuesday
tight sfc gradients will keep the winds elevated over the
Guadalupe Mtns...so have left the current High Wind Warning over
the Guadalupe Mtns for Tuesday as is.

A Pacific Cold front (which brought a quick dusting of snow to El
Paso) will move across the area tonight. Latest high resolution
fcst keep the CWA dry. Temps on Tuesday will be several degrees
below normal. As the mid/upper level trough lifts northeast a
modified Arctic front will drop south thru the Southern Plains and
bring below normal temps through the end of the week with
overnight lows in the 20s...and even a few upper teens in Northern
Lea County.

Weak shortwave ridging will move over the Central/Southern Plains
in response to a trough moving into the Pacific Northwest and
Northern California. As the trough moves east it will split with
the southern piece of energy developing a cutoff low over the
Southern Rockies by Friday evening...and over West Texas Saturday
morning. Medium range models are hinting at the possibility of
precipitation over the CWA Friday night/Saturday morning. It is
still too early to determine if the precip will be
snow...rain...or a mix but it does bear watching. Northwest flow
aloft in the wake of the upper low will bring dry weather along
with moderating temps on Sunday.

Strobin

FIRE WEATHER...Critical fire weather conditions are developing
across the Big Bend, the Trans Pecos and southern Permian Basin
this mid Monday afternoon. Would expect the northeast Permian
Basin to get in on this as well shortly for the remainder of this
afternoon as drier air and strong westerly winds surge into that
area quickly. Further west across southeast New Mexico, the
western Permian Basin, the Guadalupe Mountains and the Van Horn
Highway 54 Corridor, critical fire weather conditions are not
occurring and not expected despite strong winds due to cooler air
keeping rh/s above 15 percent the remainder of the afternoon.
Conditions should improve by early evening across the Red Flag
Warning area in west Texas as winds slacken some and nocturnal
cooling takes place with cooler air surging east behind a cold
front.

Although winds will slacken overnight they will remain elevated and
despite cooler temperatures, only fair rh recovery is expected
areawide. It will be breezy to windy in many areas again Tuesday,
but not anywhere as high as today, with isolated locations of the
Big Bend region and Lower Trans Pecos possibly ending up with near
critical fire weather conditions Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     37  58  26  47 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       36  53  26  47 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         43  66  34  57 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  38  55  29  50 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 26  43  22  41 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          31  50  24  44 /   0   0  10   0
Marfa                          26  50  19  48 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           37  55  26  46 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         38  57  26  47 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           36  57  25  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99
618
FXUS64 KMAF 012254
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
454 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Latest sfc obs show Pac front just went thru KMAF, and approaching
KFST. Expect IFR/MVFR visibilities to improve to VFR over the next
couple of hours as post-frontal winds subside slightly. However,
gusty post-frontal conditions will continue next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 239 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:15 pm CST Monday...another spring-like day
across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico replete with above
normal temps...fire wx concerns...and of course breezy/windy
conditions.

Satl imagery is indc a strong mid/upper level trof moving across
Northern New Mexico. A tightening sfc pressure gradient will
continue...if not increase the windy conditions across the area.
Latest RTMA (Real Time Mesoscale Analysis) Data is indc strong
wind gusts over the western half of the CWA...edging eastward.
Therefore...will not make any changes to the ongoing Wind and Dust
Products. Even though the H7 winds are fcst to decrease on Tuesday
tight sfc gradients will keep the winds elevated over the
Guadalupe Mtns...so have left the current High Wind Warning over
the Guadalupe Mtns for Tuesday as is.

A Pacific Cold front (which brought a quick dusting of snow to El
Paso) will move across the area tonight. Latest high resolution
fcst keep the CWA dry. Temps on Tuesday will be several degrees
below normal. As the mid/upper level trough lifts northeast a
modified Arctic front will drop south thru the Southern Plains and
bring below normal temps through the end of the week with
overnight lows in the 20s...and even a few upper teens in Northern
Lea County.

Weak shortwave ridging will move over the Central/Southern Plains
in response to a trough moving into the Pacific Northwest and
Northern California. As the trough moves east it will split with
the southern piece of energy developing a cutoff low over the
Southern Rockies by Friday evening...and over West Texas Saturday
morning. Medium range models are hinting at the possibility of
precipitation over the CWA Friday night/Saturday morning. It is
still too early to determine if the precip will be
snow...rain...or a mix but it does bear watching. Northwest flow
aloft in the wake of the upper low will bring dry weather along
with moderating temps on Sunday.

Strobin

FIRE WEATHER...Critical fire weather conditions are developing
across the Big Bend, the Trans Pecos and southern Permian Basin
this mid Monday afternoon. Would expect the northeast Permian
Basin to get in on this as well shortly for the remainder of this
afternoon as drier air and strong westerly winds surge into that
area quickly. Further west across southeast New Mexico, the
western Permian Basin, the Guadalupe Mountains and the Van Horn
Highway 54 Corridor, critical fire weather conditions are not
occurring and not expected despite strong winds due to cooler air
keeping rh/s above 15 percent the remainder of the afternoon.
Conditions should improve by early evening across the Red Flag
Warning area in west Texas as winds slacken some and nocturnal
cooling takes place with cooler air surging east behind a cold
front.

Although winds will slacken overnight they will remain elevated and
despite cooler temperatures, only fair rh recovery is expected
areawide. It will be breezy to windy in many areas again Tuesday,
but not anywhere as high as today, with isolated locations of the
Big Bend region and Lower Trans Pecos possibly ending up with near
critical fire weather conditions Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     37  58  26  47 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       36  53  26  47 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         43  66  34  57 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  38  55  29  50 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 26  43  22  41 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          31  50  24  44 /   0   0  10   0
Marfa                          26  50  19  48 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           37  55  26  46 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         38  57  26  47 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           36  57  25  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

     Blowing Dust Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for Central
     Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy
     County-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for Central Lea
     County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea
     County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for Big Bend Area-
     Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Ector-Glasscock-
     Howard-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio
     Valley-Reagan-Scurry-Terrell-Upton.

     Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for Big Bend Area-
     Borden-Crane-Ector-Glasscock-Howard-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-
     Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Scurry-Terrell-Upton.

     High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Blowing Dust Advisory until 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ this evening for
     Andrews-Dawson-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 9 PM CST this evening for Andrews-
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Gaines-Loving-Marfa
     Plateau-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

$$

44/80/44
482
FXUS64 KMAF 012039
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
239 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...As of 2:15 pm CST Monday...another spring-like day
across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico replete with above
normal temps...fire wx concerns...and of course breezy/windy
conditions.

Satl imagery is indc a strong mid/upper level trof moving across
Northern New Mexico. A tightening sfc pressure gradient will
continue...if not increase the windy conditions across the area.
Latest RTMA (Real Time Mesoscale Analysis) Data is indc strong
wind gusts over the western half of the CWA...edging eastward.
Therefore...will not make any changes to the ongoing Wind and Dust
Products. Even though the H7 winds are fcst to decrease on Tuesday
tight sfc gradients will keep the winds elevated over the
Guadalupe Mtns...so have left the current High Wind Warning over
the Guadalupe Mtns for Tuesday as is.

A Pacific Cold front (which brought a quick dusting of snow to El
Paso) will move across the area tonight. Latest high resolution
fcst keep the CWA dry. Temps on Tuesday will be several degrees
below normal. As the mid/upper level trough lifts northeast a
modified Arctic front will drop south thru the Southern Plains and
bring below normal temps through the end of the week with
overnight lows in the 20s...and even a few upper teens in Northern
Lea County.

Weak shortwave ridging will move over the Central/Southern Plains
in response to a trough moving into the Pacific Northwest and
Northern California. As the trough moves east it will split with
the southern piece of energy developing a cutoff low over the
Southern Rockies by Friday evening...and over West Texas Saturday
morning. Medium range models are hinting at the possibility of
precipitation over the CWA Friday night/Saturday morning. It is
still too early to determine if the precip will be
snow...rain...or a mix but it does bear watching. Northwest flow
aloft in the wake of the upper low will bring dry weather along
with moderating temps on Sunday.

Strobin

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Critical fire weather conditions are developing
across the Big Bend, the Trans Pecos and southern Permian Basin
this mid Monday afternoon. Would expect the northeast Permian
Basin to get in on this as well shortly for the remainder of this
afternoon as drier air and strong westerly winds surge into that
area quickly. Further west across southeast New Mexico, the
western Permian Basin, the Guadalupe Mountains and the Van Horn
Highway 54 Corridor, critical fire weather conditions are not
occurring and not expected despite strong winds due to cooler air
keeping rh/s above 15 percent the remainder of the afternoon.
Conditions should improve by early evening across the Red Flag
Warning area in west Texas as winds slacken some and nocturnal
cooling takes place with cooler air surging east behind a cold
front.

Although winds will slacken overnight they will remain elevated and
despite cooler temperatures, only fair rh recovery is expected
areawide. It will be breezy to windy in many areas again Tuesday,
but not anywhere as high as today, with isolated locations of the
Big Bend region and Lower Trans Pecos possibly ending up with near
critical fire weather conditions Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     37  58  26  47 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       36  53  26  47 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         43  66  34  57 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  38  55  29  50 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 26  43  22  41 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          31  50  24  44 /   0   0  10   0
Marfa                          26  50  19  48 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           37  55  26  46 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         38  57  26  47 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           36  57  25  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

     Blowing Dust Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for Central
     Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy
     County-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for Central Lea
     County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea
     County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for Big Bend Area-
     Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Ector-Glasscock-
     Howard-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio
     Valley-Reagan-Scurry-Terrell-Upton.

     Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for Big Bend Area-
     Borden-Crane-Ector-Glasscock-Howard-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-
     Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Scurry-Terrell-Upton.

     High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Blowing Dust Advisory until 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ this evening for
     Andrews-Dawson-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 9 PM CST this evening for Andrews-
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Gaines-Loving-Marfa
     Plateau-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

$$

12/33
842
FXUS64 KMAF 011659
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1059 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Strong west winds are expected at all the west Texas and southeast
New Mexico terminals by early this afternoon. Prevailing west
winds of 30 to 45 mph are anticipated with TEMPO west winds of 40
to 50 mph with gusts over 60 mph from 21z to 24z with MVFR
visibilities in blowing dust. West winds will diminish some by
early evening but remain elevated at 20 to 30 mph with gusts to
40 mph overnight. Look for prevailing MVFR visibilities in blowing
dust overnight as a dustcloud from northern Mexico and New Mexico
lingers over the region.

12


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 514 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through this morning areawide.  However,
strong southwest to west winds will affect all area terminals by
this afternoon with blowing dust likely dropping visibility to MVFR
in blowing dust, if not IFR at KCNM, KPEQ and KHOB where the
strongest winds are expected.  Westerly winds will be slow to
decrease after 02/00Z, but conditions should be VFR again shortly
thereafter.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 422 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016/

An intense upper low currently moving through Arizona will bring
strong winds and high fire danger to the region today. The low will
continue to deepen and become more negatively tilted before lifting
into the Plains late today. Thinking has not changed much with this
system and winds will beef up very quickly later this morning. A
core of >100 kt winds will be crossing the region at 500 mb during
the late morning to early afternoon. This coincides with peak
mixing and a height gradient at 700 mb of nearly 90 meters/200
miles. Using the 700 mb gradient method, sustained winds 40 to 50
mph with gust to 60 mph will definitely be possible across the
western half of the CWA. Will convert the High Wind Watch to a
Warning with a Wind Advisory east of that. The higher elevations
will see even stronger winds with the Guadalupe Mountains possibly
seeing gusts to 100 mph and 80 mph gusts in the Davis Mountains.
Models continue to underdo the winds so will go above guidance
here. The some goes for dewpoints as dry air to the west and
strong downslope flow will keep values in the teens and low 20`s.
Will continue to keep blowing dust in the forecast for this
afternoon and evening, and among everything else will add a
Blowing Dust Advisory for locations west of a Lamesa to Wink to
Pecos line. Locally, recent wind events (weaker than today) have
not brought much in the way of dust, possibly due to more
widespread vegetation from a wet 2015. Most of the dust with this
event will likely come from N. Mexico.

If we see any precip with this system today, it will remain in the
higher elevations of the Guadalupe Mountains. More likely we will
see virga in these areas which may only help to bring stronger
winds aloft to the surface.

A Pacific front will help to cool temps somewhat this evening, but
not before highs reach well above normal for the 5th day in a row.
Winds will decrease only slightly tonight as vertical mixing wanes,
but a strong sfc pressure gradient remains. A Canadian front is set
to arrive Tuesday evening with much colder air behind it. High
temperatures will struggle to rise through the 40`s at most
locations Wednesday with lows mostly in the teens and 20`s. Cool
temps will continue through the end of this week as a large upper
trough encompassing the central U.S. is slow to move east. Models
differ on another storm system expected to arrive this weekend.
This storm could bring a chance of rain or snow to the region.

FIRE WEATHER...

A potent upper level storm system will impinge on the area today and
impart very strong winds to the surface.  Westerly winds of 55 to 65
mph and gusts as high as 100 mph will occur in the Guadalupe
Mountains, with 40 to 50 mph and gusts to 80 mph in the Davis
Mountains.  The northwest Permian Basin, Upper Trans Pecos and Marfa
Plateau will also see very high winds of 30 to 50 mph and gusts as
high as 70 mph.  The strong winds, combined with very high to
extreme fire danger, will result in a higher end fire weather event
today.

Since cooler temperatures will spread over the Guadalupe Mountains,
SE NM Plains, northwest Permian Basin and Van Horn area during the
day, think RH/s may not make it down to 15 percent, and will likely
begin to increase through mid morning to early afternoon.  However,
the rest of the forecast area will see RH/s drop to the 5 to 15
percent range through the afternoon, although the Davis Mountains
and Marfa Plateau will have increasing RH/s from mid afternoon
onward as cooler temperatures arrive.  Will go ahead and upgrade the
Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning from 9 am until 6 pm CST.

Winds will be slow to decrease after sunset in many areas, and
despite cooler temperatures, only fair recovery is expected
areawide.  It will be windy again Tuesday, but not nearly as high as
today, with portions of the Big Bend region and Lower Trans Pecos
possibly ending up with near critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     35  56  25  46 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       33  53  26  46 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         44  63  34  57 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  39  55  29  49 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 28  43  23  41 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          30  50  23  43 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          24  49  19  46 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           37  55  27  47 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         38  55  27  48 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           36  56  26  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

     Blowing Dust Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for Central
     Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy
     County-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for Central Lea
     County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea
     County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for Big Bend Area-
     Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Ector-Glasscock-
     Howard-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio
     Valley-Reagan-Scurry-Terrell-Upton.

     Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for Big Bend Area-
     Borden-Crane-Ector-Glasscock-Howard-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-
     Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Scurry-Terrell-Upton.

     High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Blowing Dust Advisory until 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ this evening for
     Andrews-Dawson-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 9 PM CST this evening for Andrews-
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Gaines-Loving-Marfa
     Plateau-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

$$

67/29
480
FXUS64 KMAF 011114
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
514 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through this morning areawide.  However,
strong southwest to west winds will affect all area terminals by
this afternoon with blowing dust likely dropping visibility to MVFR
in blowing dust, if not IFR at KCNM, KPEQ and KHOB where the
strongest winds are expected.  Westerly winds will be slow to
decrease after 02/00Z, but conditions should be VFR again shortly
thereafter.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 422 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016/

An intense upper low currently moving through Arizona will bring
strong winds and high fire danger to the region today. The low will
continue to deepen and become more negatively tilted before lifting
into the Plains late today. Thinking has not changed much with this
system and winds will beef up very quickly later this morning. A
core of >100 kt winds will be crossing the region at 500 mb during
the late morning to early afternoon. This coincides with peak
mixing and a height gradient at 700 mb of nearly 90 meters/200
miles. Using the 700 mb gradient method, sustained winds 40 to 50
mph with gust to 60 mph will definitely be possible across the
western half of the CWA. Will convert the High Wind Watch to a
Warning with a Wind Advisory east of that. The higher elevations
will see even stronger winds with the Guadalupe Mountains possibly
seeing gusts to 100 mph and 80 mph gusts in the Davis Mountains.
Models continue to underdo the winds so will go above guidance
here. The some goes for dewpoints as dry air to the west and
strong downslope flow will keep values in the teens and low 20`s.
Will continue to keep blowing dust in the forecast for this
afternoon and evening, and among everything else will add a
Blowing Dust Advisory for locations west of a Lamesa to Wink to
Pecos line. Locally, recent wind events (weaker than today) have
not brought much in the way of dust, possibly due to more
widespread vegetation from a wet 2015. Most of the dust with this
event will likely come from N. Mexico.

If we see any precip with this system today, it will remain in the
higher elevations of the Guadalupe Mountains. More likely we will
see virga in these areas which may only help to bring stronger
winds aloft to the surface.

A Pacific front will help to cool temps somewhat this evening, but
not before highs reach well above normal for the 5th day in a row.
Winds will decrease only slightly tonight as vertical mixing wanes,
but a strong sfc pressure gradient remains. A Canadian front is set
to arrive Tuesday evening with much colder air behind it. High
temperatures will struggle to rise through the 40`s at most
locations Wednesday with lows mostly in the teens and 20`s. Cool
temps will continue through the end of this week as a large upper
trough encompassing the central U.S. is slow to move east. Models
differ on another storm system expected to arrive this weekend.
This storm could bring a chance of rain or snow to the region.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A potent upper level storm system will impinge on the area today and
impart very strong winds to the surface.  Westerly winds of 55 to 65
mph and gusts as high as 100 mph will occur in the Guadalupe
Mountains, with 40 to 50 mph and gusts to 80 mph in the Davis
Mountains.  The northwest Permian Basin, Upper Trans Pecos and Marfa
Plateau will also see very high winds of 30 to 50 mph and gusts as
high as 70 mph.  The strong winds, combined with very high to
extreme fire danger, will result in a higher end fire weather event
today.

Since cooler temperatures will spread over the Guadalupe Mountains,
SE NM Plains, northwest Permian Basin and Van Horn area during the
day, think RH/s may not make it down to 15 percent, and will likely
begin to increase through mid morning to early afternoon.  However,
the rest of the forecast area will see RH/s drop to the 5 to 15
percent range through the afternoon, although the Davis Mountains
and Marfa Plateau will have increasing RH/s from mid afternoon
onward as cooler temperatures arrive.  Will go ahead and upgrade the
Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning from 9 am until 6 pm CST.

Winds will be slow to decrease after sunset in many areas, and
despite cooler temperatures, only fair recovery is expected
areawide.  It will be windy again Tuesday, but not nearly as high as
today, with portions of the Big Bend region and Lower Trans Pecos
possibly ending up with near critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     74  35  56  25 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       61  33  53  26 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         81  44  63  34 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  74  39  55  29 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 51  28  43  23 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          61  30  50  23 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          68  24  49  19 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           71  37  55  27 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         69  38  55  27 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           68  36  56  26 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

     Blowing Dust Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this
     evening for Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea
     County.

     High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this
     evening for Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Northern
     Lea County-Southern Lea County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
     for Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Ector-Glasscock-Howard-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-
     Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Scurry-Terrell-Upton.

     Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CST this evening
     for Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-Ector-Glasscock-Howard-
     Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Scurry-
     Terrell-Upton.

     High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Blowing Dust Advisory from 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ this morning to
     9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ this evening for Andrews-Dawson-Gaines-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CST this
     evening for Andrews-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-
     Gaines-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

$$

67/29
330
FXUS64 KMAF 011114
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
514 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through this morning areawide.  However,
strong southwest to west winds will affect all area terminals by
this afternoon with blowing dust likely dropping visibility to MVFR
in blowing dust, if not IFR at KCNM, KPEQ and KHOB where the
strongest winds are expected.  Westerly winds will be slow to
decrease after 02/00Z, but conditions should be VFR again shortly
thereafter.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 422 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016/

An intense upper low currently moving through Arizona will bring
strong winds and high fire danger to the region today. The low will
continue to deepen and become more negatively tilted before lifting
into the Plains late today. Thinking has not changed much with this
system and winds will beef up very quickly later this morning. A
core of >100 kt winds will be crossing the region at 500 mb during
the late morning to early afternoon. This coincides with peak
mixing and a height gradient at 700 mb of nearly 90 meters/200
miles. Using the 700 mb gradient method, sustained winds 40 to 50
mph with gust to 60 mph will definitely be possible across the
western half of the CWA. Will convert the High Wind Watch to a
Warning with a Wind Advisory east of that. The higher elevations
will see even stronger winds with the Guadalupe Mountains possibly
seeing gusts to 100 mph and 80 mph gusts in the Davis Mountains.
Models continue to underdo the winds so will go above guidance
here. The some goes for dewpoints as dry air to the west and
strong downslope flow will keep values in the teens and low 20`s.
Will continue to keep blowing dust in the forecast for this
afternoon and evening, and among everything else will add a
Blowing Dust Advisory for locations west of a Lamesa to Wink to
Pecos line. Locally, recent wind events (weaker than today) have
not brought much in the way of dust, possibly due to more
widespread vegetation from a wet 2015. Most of the dust with this
event will likely come from N. Mexico.

If we see any precip with this system today, it will remain in the
higher elevations of the Guadalupe Mountains. More likely we will
see virga in these areas which may only help to bring stronger
winds aloft to the surface.

A Pacific front will help to cool temps somewhat this evening, but
not before highs reach well above normal for the 5th day in a row.
Winds will decrease only slightly tonight as vertical mixing wanes,
but a strong sfc pressure gradient remains. A Canadian front is set
to arrive Tuesday evening with much colder air behind it. High
temperatures will struggle to rise through the 40`s at most
locations Wednesday with lows mostly in the teens and 20`s. Cool
temps will continue through the end of this week as a large upper
trough encompassing the central U.S. is slow to move east. Models
differ on another storm system expected to arrive this weekend.
This storm could bring a chance of rain or snow to the region.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A potent upper level storm system will impinge on the area today and
impart very strong winds to the surface.  Westerly winds of 55 to 65
mph and gusts as high as 100 mph will occur in the Guadalupe
Mountains, with 40 to 50 mph and gusts to 80 mph in the Davis
Mountains.  The northwest Permian Basin, Upper Trans Pecos and Marfa
Plateau will also see very high winds of 30 to 50 mph and gusts as
high as 70 mph.  The strong winds, combined with very high to
extreme fire danger, will result in a higher end fire weather event
today.

Since cooler temperatures will spread over the Guadalupe Mountains,
SE NM Plains, northwest Permian Basin and Van Horn area during the
day, think RH/s may not make it down to 15 percent, and will likely
begin to increase through mid morning to early afternoon.  However,
the rest of the forecast area will see RH/s drop to the 5 to 15
percent range through the afternoon, although the Davis Mountains
and Marfa Plateau will have increasing RH/s from mid afternoon
onward as cooler temperatures arrive.  Will go ahead and upgrade the
Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning from 9 am until 6 pm CST.

Winds will be slow to decrease after sunset in many areas, and
despite cooler temperatures, only fair recovery is expected
areawide.  It will be windy again Tuesday, but not nearly as high as
today, with portions of the Big Bend region and Lower Trans Pecos
possibly ending up with near critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     74  35  56  25 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       61  33  53  26 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         81  44  63  34 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  74  39  55  29 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 51  28  43  23 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          61  30  50  23 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          68  24  49  19 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           71  37  55  27 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         69  38  55  27 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           68  36  56  26 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

     Blowing Dust Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this
     evening for Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea
     County.

     High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this
     evening for Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Northern
     Lea County-Southern Lea County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
     for Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Ector-Glasscock-Howard-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-
     Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Scurry-Terrell-Upton.

     Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CST this evening
     for Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-Ector-Glasscock-Howard-
     Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Scurry-
     Terrell-Upton.

     High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Blowing Dust Advisory from 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ this morning to
     9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ this evening for Andrews-Dawson-Gaines-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CST this
     evening for Andrews-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-
     Gaines-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

$$

67/29
928
FXUS64 KMAF 011022
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
422 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...

An intense upper low currently moving through Arizona will bring
strong winds and high fire danger to the region today. The low will
continue to deepen and become more negatively tilted before lifting
into the Plains late today. Thinking has not changed much with this
system and winds will beef up very quickly later this morning. A
core of >100 kt winds will be crossing the region at 500 mb during
the late morning to early afternoon. This coincides with peak
mixing and a height gradient at 700 mb of nearly 90 meters/200
miles. Using the 700 mb gradient method, sustained winds 40 to 50
mph with gust to 60 mph will definitely be possible across the
western half of the CWA. Will convert the High Wind Watch to a
Warning with a Wind Advisory east of that. The higher elevations
will see even stronger winds with the Guadalupe Mountains possibly
seeing gusts to 100 mph and 80 mph gusts in the Davis Mountains.
Models continue to underdo the winds so will go above guidance
here. The some goes for dewpoints as dry air to the west and
strong downslope flow will keep values in the teens and low 20`s.
Will continue to keep blowing dust in the forecast for this
afternoon and evening, and among everything else will add a
Blowing Dust Advisory for locations west of a Lamesa to Wink to
Pecos line. Locally, recent wind events (weaker than today) have
not brought much in the way of dust, possibly due to more
widespread vegetation from a wet 2015. Most of the dust with this
event will likely come from N. Mexico.

If we see any precip with this system today, it will remain in the
higher elevations of the Guadalupe Mountains. More likely we will
see virga in these areas which may only help to bring stronger
winds aloft to the surface.

A Pacific front will help to cool temps somewhat this evening, but
not before highs reach well above normal for the 5th day in a row.
Winds will decrease only slightly tonight as vertical mixing wanes,
but a strong sfc pressure gradient remains. A Canadian front is set
to arrive Tuesday evening with much colder air behind it. High
temperatures will struggle to rise through the 40`s at most
locations Wednesday with lows mostly in the teens and 20`s. Cool
temps will continue through the end of this week as a large upper
trough encompassing the central U.S. is slow to move east. Models
differ on another storm system expected to arrive this weekend.
This storm could bring a chance of rain or snow to the region.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A potent upper level storm system will impinge on the area today and
impart very strong winds to the surface.  Westerly winds of 55 to 65
mph and gusts as high as 100 mph will occur in the Guadalupe
Mountains, with 40 to 50 mph and gusts to 80 mph in the Davis
Mountains.  The northwest Permian Basin, Upper Trans Pecos and Marfa
Plateau will also see very high winds of 30 to 50 mph and gusts as
high as 70 mph.  The strong winds, combined with very high to
extreme fire danger, will result in a higher end fire weather event
today.

Since cooler temperatures will spread over the Guadalupe Mountains,
SE NM Plains, northwest Permian Basin and Van Horn area during the
day, think RH/s may not make it down to 15 percent, and will likely
begin to increase through mid morning to early afternoon.  However,
the rest of the forecast area will see RH/s drop to the 5 to 15
percent range through the afternoon, although the Davis Mountains
and Marfa Plateau will have increasing RH/s from mid afternoon
onward as cooler temperatures arrive.  Will go ahead and upgrade the
Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning from 9 am until 6 pm CST.

Winds will be slow to decrease after sunset in many areas, and
despite cooler temperatures, only fair recovery is expected
areawide.  It will be windy again Tuesday, but not nearly as high as
today, with portions of the Big Bend region and Lower Trans Pecos
possibly ending up with near critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     74  35  56  25 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       61  33  53  26 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         81  44  63  34 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  74  39  55  29 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 51  28  43  23 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          61  30  50  23 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          68  24  49  19 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           71  37  55  27 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         69  38  55  27 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           68  36  56  26 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

     Blowing Dust Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this
     evening for Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea
     County.

     High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this
     evening for Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Northern
     Lea County-Southern Lea County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
     for Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Ector-Glasscock-Howard-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-
     Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Scurry-Terrell-Upton.

     Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CST this evening
     for Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-Ector-Glasscock-Howard-
     Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Scurry-
     Terrell-Upton.

     High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Blowing Dust Advisory from 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ this morning to
     9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ this evening for Andrews-Dawson-Gaines-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CST this
     evening for Andrews-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-
     Gaines-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

$$

67/29
077
FXUS64 KMAF 010430
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1030 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016

DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through late morning Monday or so,
when sfc winds veer to the west and mixing increases winds
significantly as an upper trough passes to the north, throwing a
bit of BLDU into the mix. Models generally put highest winds over
the NW (KCNM) and weakest SE (KFST), although KFST may mix a
little deeper due to less cloud cover.  MOS continues to downplay
winds, whereas forecast afternoon mixing heights (~ 675-625 mb)
suggest a stronger scenario. We`ll continue to stay above guidance
numbers, which just don`t look realistic given the pattern. BLDU
will be the complicating factor once winds get going, and highly
dependent on source regions and (nonexistent) soil moisture. For
starters, we`ll keep visbys IFR/MVFR, but this could certainly go
lower, particularly NW terminals. To top it all off, high clouds
will be moving in, and this will inhibit mixing somewhat. Stay
tuned.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 108 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Aloft there is flat zonal flow from CA to TX with strong westerly
winds moving across the region.  Later today a strong upper trough
will move onshore the West Coast and quickly swing into the area
tomorrow.  Additional lobes of the trough will move across NM/TX
Tuesday and Wednesday.  Another trough dives down across the Rockies
late Friday as the active upper pattern continues.

Have another warm and windy day under way across the region.
GDP was reporting gusts to near 80 mph last night before it got
knocked out at 06z.  High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories remain
in place.  The High Wind Warning for the Guadalupes runs through
Tuesday and additional Wind Advisories are expected for Monday.
Still looks like tomorrow will be the windiest day of the event.
250mb jet begins to move into the area today and increases to 140
to 150kts before it passes through on Tuesday.

The wind was already westerly across the area today with
temperatures quickly climbing into the 70s.  Should have another
warm day tomorrow with highs in the 70s before a Pacific front blows
through late in the day with a gusty west wind in its wake.  By
Monday evening wind speeds will begin to drop off.  A stronger front
backs in from the NE Tuesday with highs in the 50s.  Temps stay
below normal most of the week but recover by the weekend.

There is actually a low chance of showers moving into the western
edge of Eddy Co. Monday so will leave their mention in the forecast
but expect very little measurable precip with them.

FIRE WEATHER...
Critical fire weather conditions are developing across much of
west Texas and southeast New Mexico this afternoon as rh/s
plunge to less than 15 percent with winds increasing to at or
above 20 mph in strong zonal downslope flow. These critical
conditions will continue the rest of this afternoon. Conditions
should improve by sunset with onset of nocturnal cooling and
moistening as boundary layer winds quickly decouple. Rh recovery
overnight is expected to be mainly poor to fair.

More critical fire weather conditions are possible across portions
of the forecast area during the day Monday as strong westerly
winds aloft continue as a strong upper level storm system tracks
across the southern Rockies to eastern New Mexico by late
afternoon. Deep mixing of strong winds aloft should easily allow
20 foot winds to exceed 20 mph across all of west Texas and
southeast New Mexico. Mitigating factors include the 850 millibar
temperature ridge rapidly pushing eastward toward central Texas
during the afternoon as a weak cold front pushes very quickly
east. Because of the expected quick movement of the front,
confidence is not high enough at this time that rh/s can drop
below 15 percent for 3 hours at some locations, especially across
southeast New Mexico and the Guadalupe Mountains where cooling and
moistening will be enhanced by the approaching upper level low
pressure area. At this time the most likely areas to have several
hours of critical fire weather conditions are the lower Trans
Pecos Region and Big Bend Region of west Texas where the warmer
air will reside for the longest period of time ahead of the front.
Because of the aforementioned concerns will keep the Fire Weather
Watch going for much of west Texas and let the midnight shift make
the final call with the most up to date guidance on any possible
upgrades and or cancellations of the watch.

Conditions should improve significantly on Tuesday behind the
upper low with much cooler temperatures expected and decreasing
wind speeds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     37  73  35  53 /   0  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       40  63  35  51 /   0  10   0   0
Dryden                         45  79  43  63 /   0   0  10   0
Fort Stockton                  46  74  38  55 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 40  51  28  41 /   0  10   0   0
Hobbs                          36  60  30  49 /   0  10   0   0
Marfa                          28  69  26  49 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           38  70  36  54 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         40  70  35  54 /   0  10   0   0
Wink                           37  68  36  54 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

     High Wind Watch from 9 AM MST Monday through Monday evening for
     Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-
     Southern Lea County.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from 9 AM CST Monday through Monday afternoon
     for Andrews-Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-Glasscock-Howard-Marfa Plateau-
     Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Ward-
     Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from 10 AM CST Monday through Monday evening for
     Andrews-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Gaines-Loving-Marfa
     Plateau-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

$$

44/84/44
611
FXUS64 KMAF 010035
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
635 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...

With sunset this evening, the boundary layer has started to
decouple, with winds relaxing across the area. Gusts are expected
to further diminish over the next hour or two, thus will go ahead
and let the Wind Advisory for the Eddy county plains, Upper Trans
Pecos, and Davis Mountains expire, as well as expire the High Wind
Warning for Van Horn and the Highway 54 corridor. Relative
humidity values have also started to recover, and given most
locations have already seen RH values climb to near/above critical
levels, will also allow the Red Flag Warning expire as scheduled.
Will take the opportunity to adjust this evening`s forecast trends
based on current observations, and have updated products out
shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 509 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016/

DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 18 hours or so, until
around 18Z Monday, when sfc winds veer to the west and afternoon
mixing increases winds significantly as an upper trough passes to
the north, throwing a bit of BLDU into the mix. Models generally
put highest winds over the NW (KCNM) and weakest SE (KFST). MOS
continues to downplay winds, whereas forecast afternoon mixing
heights suggest a stronger scenario. For starters, we`ve gone
slightly abv guidance numbers. BLDU will be the complicating
factor once winds get going, but we`ll begin w/IFR vsbys possible
SE NM, and MVFR elsewhere. Another factor in play will be high
clouds, which could inhibit mixing somewhat. Stay tunes.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 108 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Aloft there is flat zonal flow from CA to TX with strong westerly
winds moving across the region.  Later today a strong upper trough
will move onshore the West Coast and quickly swing into the area
tomorrow.  Additional lobes of the trough will move across NM/TX
Tuesday and Wednesday.  Another trough dives down across the Rockies
late Friday as the active upper pattern continues.

Have another warm and windy day under way across the region.
GDP was reporting gusts to near 80 mph last night before it got
knocked out at 06z.  High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories remain
in place.  The High Wind Warning for the Guadalupes runs through
Tuesday and additional Wind Advisories are expected for Monday.
Still looks like tomorrow will be the windiest day of the event.
250mb jet begins to move into the area today and increases to 140
to 150kts before it passes through on Tuesday.

The wind was already westerly across the area today with
temperatures quickly climbing into the 70s.  Should have another
warm day tomorrow with highs in the 70s before a Pacific front blows
through late in the day with a gusty west wind in its wake.  By
Monday evening wind speeds will begin to drop off.  A stronger front
backs in from the NE Tuesday with highs in the 50s.  Temps stay
below normal most of the week but recover by the weekend.

There is actually a low chance of showers moving into the western
edge of Eddy Co. Monday so will leave their mention in the forecast
but expect very little measurable precip with them.

FIRE WEATHER...
Critical fire weather conditions are developing across much of
west Texas and southeast New Mexico this afternoon as rh/s
plunge to less than 15 percent with winds increasing to at or
above 20 mph in strong zonal downslope flow. These critical
conditions will continue the rest of this afternoon. Conditions
should improve by sunset with onset of nocturnal cooling and
moistening as boundary layer winds quickly decouple. Rh recovery
overnight is expected to be mainly poor to fair.

More critical fire weather conditions are possible across portions
of the forecast area during the day Monday as strong westerly
winds aloft continue as a strong upper level storm system tracks
across the southern Rockies to eastern New Mexico by late
afternoon. Deep mixing of strong winds aloft should easily allow
20 foot winds to exceed 20 mph across all of west Texas and
southeast New Mexico. Mitigating factors include the 850 millibar
temperature ridge rapidly pushing eastward toward central Texas
during the afternoon as a weak cold front pushes very quickly
east. Because of the expected quick movement of the front,
confidence is not high enough at this time that rh/s can drop
below 15 percent for 3 hours at some locations, especially across
southeast New Mexico and the Guadalupe Mountains where cooling and
moistening will be enhanced by the approaching upper level low
pressure area. At this time the most likely areas to have several
hours of critical fire weather conditions are the lower Trans
Pecos Region and Big Bend Region of west Texas where the warmer
air will reside for the longest period of time ahead of the front.
Because of the aforementioned concerns will keep the Fire Weather
Watch going for much of west Texas and let the midnight shift make
the final call with the most up to date guidance on any possible
upgrades and or cancellations of the watch.

Conditions should improve significantly on Tuesday behind the
upper low with much cooler temperatures expected and decreasing
wind speeds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     37  73  35  53 /   0  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       40  63  35  51 /   0  10   0   0
Dryden                         45  79  43  63 /   0   0  10   0
Fort Stockton                  46  74  38  55 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 40  51  28  41 /   0  10   0   0
Hobbs                          36  60  30  49 /   0  10   0   0
Marfa                          28  69  26  49 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           38  70  36  54 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         40  70  35  54 /   0  10   0   0
Wink                           37  68  36  54 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

     High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for
     Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-
     Southern Lea County.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon
     for Andrews-Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-Glasscock-Howard-Marfa Plateau-
     Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Ward-
     Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for
     Andrews-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Gaines-Loving-Marfa
     Plateau-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

$$
177
FXUS64 KMAF 312309
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
509 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 18 hours or so, until
around 18Z Monday, when sfc winds veer to the west and afternoon
mixing increases winds significantly as an upper trough passes to
the north, throwing a bit of BLDU into the mix. Models generally
put highest winds over the NW (KCNM) and weakest SE (KFST). MOS
continues to downplay winds, whereas forecast afternoon mixing
heights suggest a stronger scenario. For starters, we`ve gone
slightly abv guidance numbers. BLDU will be the complicating
factor once winds get going, but we`ll begin w/IFR vsbys possible
SE NM, and MVFR elsewhere. Another factor in play will be high
clouds, which could inhibit mixing somewhat. Stay tunes.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 108 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Aloft there is flat zonal flow from CA to TX with strong westerly
winds moving across the region.  Later today a strong upper trough
will move onshore the West Coast and quickly swing into the area
tomorrow.  Additional lobes of the trough will move across NM/TX
Tuesday and Wednesday.  Another trough dives down across the Rockies
late Friday as the active upper pattern continues.

Have another warm and windy day under way across the region.
GDP was reporting gusts to near 80 mph last night before it got
knocked out at 06z.  High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories remain
in place.  The High Wind Warning for the Guadalupes runs through
Tuesday and additional Wind Advisories are expected for Monday.
Still looks like tomorrow will be the windiest day of the event.
250mb jet begins to move into the area today and increases to 140
to 150kts before it passes through on Tuesday.

The wind was already westerly across the area today with
temperatures quickly climbing into the 70s.  Should have another
warm day tomorrow with highs in the 70s before a Pacific front blows
through late in the day with a gusty west wind in its wake.  By
Monday evening wind speeds will begin to drop off.  A stronger front
backs in from the NE Tuesday with highs in the 50s.  Temps stay
below normal most of the week but recover by the weekend.

There is actually a low chance of showers moving into the western
edge of Eddy Co. Monday so will leave their mention in the forecast
but expect very little measurable precip with them.

FIRE WEATHER...
Critical fire weather conditions are developing across much of west Texas and
southeast New Mexico this afternoon as rh/s plunge to less than 15 percent
with winds increasing to at or above 20 mph in strong zonal downslope flow.
These critical conditions will continue the rest of this afternoon. Conditions
should improve by sunset with onset of nocturnal cooling and moistening as
boundary layer winds quickly decouple. Rh recovery overnight is expected to
be mainly poor to fair.

More critical fire weather conditions are possible across portions of the
forecast area during the day Monday as strong westerly winds aloft continue
as a strong upper level storm system tracks across the southern Rockies to
eastern New Mexico by late afternoon. Deep mixing of strong winds aloft
should easily allow 20 foot winds to exceed 20 mph across all of west Texas
and southeast New Mexico. Mitigating factors include the 850 millibar temperature
ridge rapidly pushing eastward toward central Texas during the afternoon as
a weak cold front pushes very quickly east. Because of the expected quick
movement of the front, confidence is not high enough at this time that rh/s
can drop below 15 percent for 3 hours at some locations, especially across
southeast New Mexico and the Guadalupe Mountains where cooling and moistening
will be enhanced by the approaching upper level low pressure area. At this
time the most likely areas to have several hours of critical fire weather
conditions are the lower Trans Pecos Region and Big Bend Region of west Texas
where the warmer air will reside for the longest period of time ahead of the
front. Because of the aforementioned concerns will keep the Fire Weather Watch
going for much of west Texas and let the midnight shift make the final call
with the most up to date guidance on any possible upgrades and or cancellations
of the watch.

Conditions should improve significantly on Tuesday behind the upper low with
much cooler temperatures expected and decreasing wind speeds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     37  73  35  53 /   0  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       40  63  35  51 /   0  10   0   0
Dryden                         45  79  43  63 /   0   0  10   0
Fort Stockton                  46  74  38  55 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 40  51  28  41 /   0  10   0   0
Hobbs                          36  60  30  49 /   0  10   0   0
Marfa                          28  69  26  49 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           38  70  36  54 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         40  70  35  54 /   0  10   0   0
Wink                           37  68  36  54 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ-Southeast Plains/BLM
     Roswell/LNZ.

     High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

     High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for
     Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-
     Southern Lea County.

     Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Eddy County
     Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for
     Andrews-Big Bend Area-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Ector-Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-
     Midland-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon
     for Andrews-Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-Glasscock-Howard-Marfa Plateau-
     Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Ward-
     Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for
     Andrews-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Gaines-Loving-Marfa
     Plateau-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

44/84/44
940
FXUS64 KMAF 311908
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
108 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Aloft there is flat zonal flow from CA to TX with strong westerly
winds moving across the region.  Later today a strong upper trough
will move onshore the West Coast and quickly swing into the area
tomorrow.  Additional lobes of the trough will move across NM/TX
Tuesday and Wednesday.  Another trough dives down across the Rockies
late Friday as the active upper pattern continues.

Have another warm and windy day under way across the region.
GDP was reporting gusts to near 80 mph last night before it got
knocked out at 06z.  High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories remain
in place.  The High Wind Warning for the Guadalupes runs through
Tuesday and additional Wind Advisories are expected for Monday.
Still looks like tomorrow will be the windiest day of the event.
250mb jet begins to move into the area today and increases to 140
to 150kts before it passes through on Tuesday.

The wind was already westerly across the area today with
temperatures quickly climbing into the 70s.  Should have another
warm day tomorrow with highs in the 70s before a Pacific front blows
through late in the day with a gusty west wind in its wake.  By
Monday evening wind speeds will begin to drop off.  A stronger front
backs in from the NE Tuesday with highs in the 50s.  Temps stay
below normal most of the week but recover by the weekend.

There is actually a low chance of showers moving into the western
edge of Eddy Co. Monday so will leave their mention in the forecast
but expect very little measurable precip with them.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Critical fire weather conditions are developing across much of west Texas and
southeast New Mexico this afternoon as rh/s plunge to less than 15 percent
with winds increasing to at or above 20 mph in strong zonal downslope flow.
These critical conditions will continue the rest of this afternoon. Conditions
should improve by sunset with onset of nocturnal cooling and moistening as
boundary layer winds quickly decouple. Rh recovery overnight is expected to
be mainly poor to fair.

More critical fire weather conditions are possible across portions of the
forecast area during the day Monday as strong westerly winds aloft continue
as a strong upper level storm system tracks across the southern Rockies to
eastern New Mexico by late afternoon. Deep mixing of strong winds aloft
should easily allow 20 foot winds to exceed 20 mph across all of west Texas
and southeast New Mexico. Mitigating factors include the 850 millibar temperature
ridge rapidly pushing eastward toward central Texas during the afternoon as
a weak cold front pushes very quickly east. Because of the expected quick
movement of the front, confidence is not high enough at this time that rh/s
can drop below 15 percent for 3 hours at some locations, especially across
southeast New Mexico and the Guadalupe Mountains where cooling and moistening
will be enhanced by the approaching upper level low pressure area. At this
time the most likely areas to have several hours of critical fire weather
conditions are the lower Trans Pecos Region and Big Bend Region of west Texas
where the warmer air will reside for the longest period of time ahead of the
front. Because of the aforementioned concerns will keep the Fire Weather Watch
going for much of west Texas and let the midnight shift make the final call
with the most up to date guidance on any possible upgrades and or cancellations
of the watch.

Conditions should improve significantly on Tuesday behind the upper low with
much cooler temperatures expected and decreasing wind speeds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     37  73  35  53 /   0  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       40  63  35  51 /   0  10   0   0
Dryden                         45  79  43  63 /   0   0  10   0
Fort Stockton                  46  74  38  55 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 40  51  28  41 /   0  10   0   0
Hobbs                          36  60  30  49 /   0  10   0   0
Marfa                          28  69  26  49 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           38  70  36  54 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         40  70  35  54 /   0  10   0   0
Wink                           37  68  36  54 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ-Southeast Plains/BLM
     Roswell/LNZ.

     High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

     High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for
     Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-
     Southern Lea County.

     Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Eddy County
     Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for
     Andrews-Big Bend Area-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Ector-Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-
     Midland-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon
     for Andrews-Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-Glasscock-Howard-Marfa Plateau-
     Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Ward-
     Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for
     Andrews-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Gaines-Loving-Marfa
     Plateau-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

12/72
955
FXUS64 KMAF 311646
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1046 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions with clear skies are expected at the west Texas
and southeast New Mexico terminals the next 24 hours. West winds
of 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts are expected this afternoon
through sunset. Winds will decrease significantly by early this
evening with south to southwest winds expected at generally 10
mph or less overnight.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 516 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all area terminals today and tonight.
Surface westerly winds will become gusty by this afternoon though,
and will not diminish until this evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 356 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016/

Quite an impressive day Saturday across the area with widespread
red flag conditions, record highs, and strong winds. Well...get
ready for a repeat today as the overall pattern changes very
little. A strong height gradient will develop over the region
later today with increasing mid level winds during the afternoon.
Models continue to under-do the winds each afternoon, likely due
to the time of year. Given the strong warming and tight height
gradient aloft later today will increase winds over the highest
guidance. Guadalupe Pass has been consistently gusting to near 80
mph all night and expect that to continue. High Wind Warnings look
good and will again issue wind advisories for the adjacent plains
and Davis Mountains. High temperatures across most of the region
will again threaten records this afternoon. Part of the area will
get a break from the winds and hot temps today as a front
backdoors into the northeast CWA. Locations from Snyder to Big
Spring will see much lighter winds and temperatures a few degrees
cooler.

If this weekend wasn`t windy enough, Monday still looks to take the
cake. An upper trough will eject from NM onto the Plains with the
base of the trough skirting our northwest zones. A very tight
height gradient along with very strong mid level winds (60 to 70
mph at 700 mb) will lead to strong and potentially damaging
surface winds in the higher terrain and adjacent plains. Advisory
level winds are expected to spread into much of the rest of the
region as well. Models have slowed the progress of a Pacific
front Monday so expect high temperatures to be quite warm again.
Southwesterly winds will become westerly behind the front with
temperatures cooling late Monday afternoon. Winds will be slow to
let up Monday night as a tight sfc pressure gradient continues
across the area.

A stronger cold front arrives Tuesday with much colder temperatures
filling in behind it. This airmass will stick around through the end
of the week as the large upper trough slowly moves east.
Temperatures moderate next weekend with conditions remaining dry.

FIRE WEATHER...

Mid level winds will be fairly strong over the region again today
ahead of a potent upper level storm system moving over the West
Coast.  Westerly downslope winds will aid temperatures rising well
above normal again, so RH/s will likely bottom out in the 10 to 15
percent range, although the higher elevations of the Guadalupe and
Davis Mountains, and the northern Permian Basin and Western Low
Rolling Plains will struggle to drop that low.  Still think westerly
surface winds and RH/s will be low enough along and south of a
Carlsbad to Andrews to Midland and St. Lawrence line for several
hours.  Will go ahead and upgrade the Fire Weather Watch in these
areas to a Red Flag Warning from 31/15Z to 01/00Z.  Even though
winds will subside after 01/00Z and alleviate critical fire weather
conditions, recovery will be poor over all but the Western Low
Rolling Plains.

Monday appears to be the windiest day of the last few, but cooler
temperatures will likely keep RH/s too low over the northwest
quarter or so of the forecast area.  Still think there will be
several hours of RH/s of 15 percent or less along and south of a
Lamesa to Kermit to Candelaria line so will issue a Fire Weather
Watch from 01/15Z until 02/00Z for these areas.  Later shifts will
have to monitor for adjustments, especially if temperatures turn out
cooler than currently expected.  Recovery Monday night will be poor
to fair followed by more windy conditions Tuesday.  At this time, it
appears only portions of the Lower Trans Pecos will see RH/s low
enough for critical conditions Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     76  38  73  33 /   0   0  10   0
Carlsbad                       77  42  60  35 /   0   0  10   0
Dryden                         84  48  80  47 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  77  48  76  38 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 66  43  51  29 /   0   0  10   0
Hobbs                          74  39  59  29 /   0   0  10   0
Marfa                          69  31  68  29 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           78  41  70  37 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         78  43  69  36 /   0   0  10   0
Wink                           79  40  68  37 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ-Southeast Plains/BLM
     Roswell/LNZ.

     High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

     High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for
     Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-
     Southern Lea County.

     Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Eddy County
     Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for
     Andrews-Big Bend Area-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Ector-Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-
     Midland-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon
     for Andrews-Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-Glasscock-Howard-Marfa Plateau-
     Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Ward-
     Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for
     Andrews-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Gaines-Loving-Marfa
     Plateau-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

67/29
007
FXUS64 KMAF 311116
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
516 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all area terminals today and tonight.
Surface westerly winds will become gusty by this afternoon though,
and will not diminish until this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 356 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016/

Quite an impressive day Saturday across the area with widespread
red flag conditions, record highs, and strong winds. Well...get
ready for a repeat today as the overall pattern changes very
little. A strong height gradient will develop over the region
later today with increasing mid level winds during the afternoon.
Models continue to under-do the winds each afternoon, likely due
to the time of year. Given the strong warming and tight height
gradient aloft later today will increase winds over the highest
guidance. Guadalupe Pass has been consistently gusting to near 80
mph all night and expect that to continue. High Wind Warnings look
good and will again issue wind advisories for the adjacent plains
and Davis Mountains. High temperatures across most of the region
will again threaten records this afternoon. Part of the area will
get a break from the winds and hot temps today as a front
backdoors into the northeast CWA. Locations from Snyder to Big
Spring will see much lighter winds and temperatures a few degrees
cooler.

If this weekend wasn`t windy enough, Monday still looks to take the
cake. An upper trough will eject from NM onto the Plains with the
base of the trough skirting our northwest zones. A very tight
height gradient along with very strong mid level winds (60 to 70
mph at 700 mb) will lead to strong and potentially damaging
surface winds in the higher terrain and adjacent plains. Advisory
level winds are expected to spread into much of the rest of the
region as well. Models have slowed the progress of a Pacific
front Monday so expect high temperatures to be quite warm again.
Southwesterly winds will become westerly behind the front with
temperatures cooling late Monday afternoon. Winds will be slow to
let up Monday night as a tight sfc pressure gradient continues
across the area.

A stronger cold front arrives Tuesday with much colder temperatures
filling in behind it. This airmass will stick around through the end
of the week as the large upper trough slowly moves east.
Temperatures moderate next weekend with conditions remaining dry.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Mid level winds will be fairly strong over the region again today
ahead of a potent upper level storm system moving over the West
Coast.  Westerly downslope winds will aid temperatures rising well
above normal again, so RH/s will likely bottom out in the 10 to 15
percent range, although the higher elevations of the Guadalupe and
Davis Mountains, and the northern Permian Basin and Western Low
Rolling Plains will struggle to drop that low.  Still think westerly
surface winds and RH/s will be low enough along and south of a
Carlsbad to Andrews to Midland and St. Lawrence line for several
hours.  Will go ahead and upgrade the Fire Weather Watch in these
areas to a Red Flag Warning from 31/15Z to 01/00Z.  Even though
winds will subside after 01/00Z and alleviate critical fire weather
conditions, recovery will be poor over all but the Western Low
Rolling Plains.

Monday appears to be the windiest day of the last few, but cooler
temperatures will likely keep RH/s too low over the northwest
quarter or so of the forecast area.  Still think there will be
several hours of RH/s of 15 percent or less along and south of a
Lamesa to Kermit to Candelaria line so will issue a Fire Weather
Watch from 01/15Z until 02/00Z for these areas.  Later shifts will
have to monitor for adjustments, especially if temperatures turn out
cooler than currently expected.  Recovery Monday night will be poor
to fair followed by more windy conditions Tuesday.  At this time, it
appears only portions of the Lower Trans Pecos will see RH/s low
enough for critical conditions Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     76  38  73  33 /   0   0  10   0
Carlsbad                       77  42  60  35 /   0   0  10   0
Dryden                         84  48  80  47 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  77  48  76  38 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 66  43  51  29 /   0   0  10   0
Hobbs                          74  39  59  29 /   0   0  10   0
Marfa                          69  31  68  29 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           78  41  70  37 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         78  43  69  36 /   0   0  10   0
Wink                           79  40  68  37 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 8 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this
     afternoon for Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ-
     Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

     High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

     High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for
     Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-
     Southern Lea County.

     Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this afternoon
     for Eddy County Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ this morning to 6 PM
     CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for Andrews-Big Bend Area-Crane-
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Ector-Glasscock-Guadalupe
     Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Midland-Pecos-Presidio
     Valley-Reagan-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Terrell-
     Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon
     for Andrews-Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-Glasscock-Howard-Marfa Plateau-
     Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Ward-
     Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for
     Andrews-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Gaines-Loving-Marfa
     Plateau-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

67/29
758
FXUS64 KMAF 310956
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
356 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Quite an impressive day Saturday across the area with widespread red
flag conditions, record highs, and strong winds. Well...get ready
for a repeat today as the overall pattern changes very little. A
strong height gradient will develop over the region later today with
increasing mid level winds during the afternoon. Models continue to
under-do the winds each afternoon, likely due to the time of
year. Given the strong warming and tight height gradient aloft
later today will increase winds over the highest guidance.
Guadalupe Pass has been consistently gusting to near 80 mph all
night and expect that to continue. High Wind Warnings look good
and will again issue wind advisories for the adjacent plains and
Davis Mountains. High temperatures across most of the region will
again threaten records this afternoon. Part of the area will get a
break from the winds and hot temps today as a front backdoors into
the northeast CWA. Locations from Snyder to Big Spring will see
much lighter winds and temperatures a few degrees cooler.

If this weekend wasn`t windy enough, Monday still looks to take the
cake. An upper trough will eject from NM onto the Plains with the
base of the trough skirting our northwest zones. A very tight
height gradient along with very strong mid level winds (60 to 70
mph at 700 mb) will lead to strong and potentially damaging
surface winds in the higher terrain and adjacent plains. Advisory
level winds are expected to spread into much of the rest of the
region as well. Models have slowed the progress of a Pacific
front Monday so expect high temperatures to be quite warm again.
Southwesterly winds will become westerly behind the front with
temperatures cooling late Monday afternoon. Winds will be slow to
let up Monday night as a tight sfc pressure gradient continues
across the area.

A stronger cold front arrives Tuesday with much colder temperatures
filling in behind it. This airmass will stick around through the end
of the week as the large upper trough slowly moves east.
Temperatures moderate next weekend with conditions remaining dry.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Mid level winds will be fairly strong over the region again today
ahead of a potent upper level storm system moving over the West
Coast.  Westerly downslope winds will aid temperatures rising well
above normal again, so RH/s will likely bottom out in the 10 to 15
percent range, although the higher elevations of the Guadalupe and
Davis Mountains, and the northern Permian Basin and Western Low
Rolling Plains will struggle to drop that low.  Still think westerly
surface winds and RH/s will be low enough along and south of a
Carlsbad to Andrews to Midland and St. Lawrence line for several
hours.  Will go ahead and upgrade the Fire Weather Watch in these
areas to a Red Flag Warning from 31/15Z to 01/00Z.  Even though
winds will subside after 01/00Z and alleviate critical fire weather
conditions, recovery will be poor over all but the Western Low
Rolling Plains.

Monday appears to be the windiest day of the last few, but cooler
temperatures will likely keep RH/s too low over the northwest
quarter or so of the forecast area.  Still think there will be
several hours of RH/s of 15 percent or less along and south of a
Lamesa to Kermit to Candelaria line so will issue a Fire Weather
Watch from 01/15Z until 02/00Z for these areas.  Later shifts will
have to monitor for adjustments, especially if temperatures turn out
cooler than currently expected.  Recovery Monday night will be poor
to fair followed by more windy conditions Tuesday.  At this time, it
appears only portions of the Lower Trans Pecos will see RH/s low
enough for critical conditions Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     76  38  73  33 /   0   0  10   0
Carlsbad                       77  42  60  35 /   0   0  10   0
Dryden                         84  48  80  47 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  77  48  76  38 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 66  43  51  29 /   0   0  10   0
Hobbs                          74  39  59  29 /   0   0  10   0
Marfa                          69  31  68  29 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           78  41  70  37 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         78  43  69  36 /   0   0  10   0
Wink                           79  40  68  37 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 8 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this
     afternoon for Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ-
     Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

     High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

     High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for
     Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-
     Southern Lea County.

     Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this afternoon
     for Eddy County Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ this morning to 6 PM
     CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for Andrews-Big Bend Area-Crane-
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Ector-Glasscock-Guadalupe
     Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Midland-Pecos-Presidio
     Valley-Reagan-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Terrell-
     Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon
     for Andrews-Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-Glasscock-Howard-Marfa Plateau-
     Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Ward-
     Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for
     Andrews-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Gaines-Loving-Marfa
     Plateau-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

67/29

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