Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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429
FXUS64 KMAF 250135
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
835 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Latest obs show winds beginning to diminish/decouple, and we`ll
freshen up the grids to remove the expired wind advisory. We`ll
also update other parameters as necessary based on latest
obs/model data. KGDP is still banging away at 37G44KT, and we`ll
update again when the warning expires at 03Z.  Updates out shortly.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 150 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A strong shortwave trough swung across NM this morning and was
moving across W TX this afternoon.  This trough has helped to
produce some thunderstorms today.  Will have a brief pause after
this trough before another upper trough dives across NV to AZ
Saturday before swinging into NM on Sunday.  Look for upper ridging
by the middle of next week.

Had some showers and storms develop across the Permian Basin this
morning that continued into the afternoon.  Some of these storms had
brief heavy rain with minor street flooding reported in Midland and
also possible occurring in Big Spring... Snyder... and Colorado City.

As of early afternoon widespread cloud cover clearing from west to
east with stronger winds aloft mixing down to the surface.  Have cut
back on the coverage of blowing dust this afternoon but left it
across SE NM.  As a surface trough/dryline moves across the area the
wind will come around to the W/SW behind it.  A Wind Advisory is in
effect the rest of the afternoon west of a Fort Davis to Lamesa line
with a High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains.  Wind speeds
should drop off after sunset.  Could see border line high wind
conditions in the Guadalupes Saturday and Sunday afternoon but not
planning on issuing a warning at this time.

The west wind will continue Saturday and Sunday with highs in the
80s.  The next cold front moves through Monday with highs falling
back into the 70s for the first of the week with 80s returning by
the end of next week.  Lows mostly in the 50s through Monday.

Expect current storms will be east of the area by this evening with
none expected over the weekend.  Storms creep back into the forecast
Sunday night and continue through Monday night along and behind the
front.  The remainder of the forecast is dry.

FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire weather conditions developing across SE NM and western
portions of west TX this afternoon with strong west winds and
warming temperatures. A Fire Danger Statement remains in effect for
these areas through early evening, at which point winds diminish and
fire weather conditions improve. Still expect fair overnight RH
recoveries most locations followed by another day of elevated fire
weather concerns Saturday afternoon. Although minimum RH`s and winds
look good for near critical fire weather conditions, local reports
indicate vegetation is too green to warrant a Fire Weather Watch.
Much of the same expected Sunday before a cold front moves through
Monday, alleviating fire weather concerns through at least mid week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 52  83  52  82  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              54  86  54  87  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                51  82  52  79  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  56  89  57  89  /   0   0  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           52  85  55  84  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          47  72  50  67  /   0   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                   48  80  51  79  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   38  76  42  76  /   0   0   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    54  84  54  84  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  53  82  54  84  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    52  84  53  84  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

84/44

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