544
FXUS64 KMAF 120437
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1137 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WITH ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST
OF ALL THE TERMINALS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5 TO 15 MPH BY MID TO LATE SUNDAY
MORNING.
12
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SATL IMAGERY AS WELL AS KMAF RADAR IS INDC A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROF STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEST
TEXAS AND INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING
SOUTHWEST OUT OF NORTH TEXAS INTO THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN...
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS...AND THE WESTERN TRANS PECOS.
OF POTENTIALLY GREATER IMPACT ARE THE STORMS FIRING UP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN MEXICO THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
INTO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND THE SOUTHERN STOCKTON PLATEAU. HAVE
NOT MENTIONED SEVERE...BUT THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH BULK SHEAR (THE
BEST BULK SHEAR IS IN NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS) FOR AN
ISOLATED SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREAT HAIL.
THE UPPER TROF WILL SHEAR APART WITH A WEAK CUTOFF LOW RETROGRADING
TO CENTRAL BAJA. HAVE TONED DOWN THE POPS FOR SUNDAY FOR THE
DAVIS...GLASS...CHINATI...AND CHISOS MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER LOW
REMAINS OVER CENTRAL BAJA FOR MONDAY AS WELL...SO WENT WITH
SIMILAR POPS.
AN EASTERN PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL KICK THE UPPER LOW NORTHEAST
THROUGH WEST TEXAS ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF CONVECTION TO THE PERMIAN BASIN AND THE TRANS PECOS
SOUTH. POPS MIGHT NEED TO BE ADJUSTED SOME DEPENDING ON THE PATH
OF THE UPPER LOW IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS.
IT WILL DEFINITELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER STARTING ON WEDNESDAY AS
RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES WITH
SURFACE LEE SIDE TROUGHING. THIS WILL BRING A LOW LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW...AND WITH H85 TEMPS BUMPING 30C THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD 90S
WITH TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPS POSSIBLE ALONG THE PECOS RIVER AND THE RIO
GRANDE RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE HINTING THAT THE DRY LINE WILL BE EAST OF THE
CWA SO HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 51 80 55 82 / 10 10 0 10
BIG SPRING TX 53 80 53 84 / 10 10 0 10
CARLSBAD NM 52 79 51 83 / 20 10 0 10
DRYDEN TX 60 77 55 80 / 30 20 10 20
FORT STOCKTON TX 57 77 56 81 / 20 10 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 53 70 51 74 / 20 10 0 10
HOBBS NM 52 78 50 82 / 20 10 0 10
MARFA TX 48 67 43 72 / 30 20 10 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 53 80 55 83 / 10 10 0 10
ODESSA TX 53 80 57 82 / 10 10 0 10
WINK TX 55 80 57 83 / 10 10 0 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
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