Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Skip options and go directly to product.
Home | Oldest Version | Next Version | Current Version | All | Text Only | Save Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On

Skip product version selection by date and time.   
FXUS64 KMAF 190857

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
357 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

An upper trough now located just west of the region early this
morning is providing maximized upper forcing for ascent, supporting
ongoing showers and thunderstorms across southern portions of west
TX. The rain activity has been fairly progressive overnight and
flooding potential hasn`t really been a concern as of yet with
only about an inch or less of rain so far. However with the
potential of additional rainfall possible (mainly the Lower Trans
Pecos) through morning, could see a few areas of localized
flooding and will keep the Flash Flood Watch as is for now. Best
rain chances will generally be across the eastern Permian Basin
and Lower Trans Pecos through mid day today then shift east as the
upper trough progresses eastward. A few hi-res models show
convection developing along the higher terrain early this
afternoon. Think this is reasonable given the trough axis will
still be west of the area and daytime heating could result in
increased instability across these areas. Forecasted high
temperatures will be warmer today, particularly across western
zones where clouds are expected to clear by late afternoon.

The warming trend will continue into Friday and Saturday as the
upper trough is replaced by weak upper ridging. Will have a dryline
develop Friday and slosh back and forth through the weekend. Chances
for thunderstorms to develop Friday or Saturday afternoon remain
very low at this time given the lack of upper support. Better chance
for dryline thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening across the
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos with stronger convergence
expected along the dryine and a strong upper jet nosing into the
region. Models indicate a significant amount of instability east
of the boundary with decent wind shear possible which would
support strong updrafts and the potential for severe storms
producing large hail and damaging winds. This will be something to
keep an eye on as Sunday nears so stay tuned. Otherwise, near
normal temperatures expected through the weekend.

Beyond this weekend, the dryline looks to hang around far eastern
zones each afternoon through much of the week with most areas
across the CWA remaining dry. Above normal temperatures can be
expected with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and lows generally
in the 60s.


Big Spring                     67  55  82  62 /  50  10  10  10
Carlsbad                       74  53  87  59 /  20   0   0   0
Dryden                         73  61  84  67 /  50  20  10  10
Fort Stockton                  70  57  86  64 /  30  10   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 69  55  81  58 /  20   0   0   0
Hobbs                          68  53  83  58 /  20  10   0  10
Marfa                          71  47  81  51 /  30  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           69  56  85  64 /  50  10   0  10
Odessa                         69  57  85  64 /  40  10   0   0
Wink                           72  55  88  63 /  30  10   0   0


.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Flash Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for Big Bend



10/27 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.