Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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143
FXUS64 KMAF 121709
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1209 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 18Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Forecast sounding suggest convective temps will be reached over
the new few hours, spawning a widespread cu field w/bases 4.5-7
kft agl. Slug of lift is forecast to move NE thru the Presidio
Valley to the Wrn Low Rolling Plains into this evening, resulting
in a chance of convection all terminals. Buffer soundings suggest
IFR conditions developing for a few hours overnight KCNM/KMAF.
Cold front will make it thru KCNM/KHOB before the end of the
forecast period.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper level low pressure area centered near Baja will move toward
west Texas today and tonight and then move only very slowly across
the Permian Basin and Texas Panhandle Monday through Monday night.
As this system approaches through tonight, the chance of showers
and thunderstorms will increase areawide. The best chance of
showers and thunderstorms appears to be Monday as a southward
moving cold front provides an additional focus for precipitation.
Prefer the quicker higher resolution guidance (arw,nmm,nam) with
the cold front and precipitation on Monday. Much cooler temperatures
are expected Monday behind the front with the precipitation and
later shifts may need to lower high temperatures if current trends
in the guidance continue. More wraparound precipitation expected
Monday night as the upper low departs into the Texas Panhandle.
By Tuesday the upper low will finally move away from the region
with a lingering chance of showers expected in the extreme
northeastern Permian Basin. It will remain cool with cyclonic
flow remaining over the forecast area.

By next Wednesday the next upper low is forecast to dig into
the Rockies from the Pacific northwest. A surface trough/dry line
is forecast to become established again in the southwesterly flow
aloft across the central and or eastern Permian Basin. Temperatures
should warm again to above normal values with the formation of the
surface trough/dry line. A few thunderstorms can not be ruled out
along the surface trough/dry line Wednesday afternoon but confidence
in placement of the dry line is low so left the forecast dry for
now. By Wednesday night through Thursday night the upper low is
forecast to slowly continue to dig across the southern Rockies. As
the upper low approaches the forecast area upper level forcing
will increase and confidence is high enough to mention a slight
chance of thunderstorms most areas these periods.

For Friday through Saturday the upper low is forecast to meander
around either the Rockies or the western high plains. Since guidance
has not reached a consensus on the track of this system yet will
leave dry for now these days but later shifts will need to
monitor.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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