Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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261
FXUS64 KMAF 311130
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
626 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.UPDATE...

Have issued update to increase pops and QPF amounts as well as add
mention of heavy rainfall into the weather grids for today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Have updated forecast to increase pops and rainfall amounts for
today across southeast New Mexico and areas west of the Pecos
River.  Also, added heavy rainfall across the above mentioned
areas.  Currently, on radar there is an area of rainfall that is
slow moving and has already caused flash flooding in southeast New
Mexico.  There is expected to be more development of rain in this area
during the day today.  The HPC day 1 excessive rainfall graphic
outlines this area as a slight risk.  There is good instability
across the region and upslope flow, and precipitation is expected to
train across the same areas possibly leading to more flash flooding.

&&

.AVIATION...

A cluster of thunderstorms over southeast New Mexico should
gradually diminish in strength and areal coverage through 31/15Z.
Will include a mention of TSRA at KCNM and KHOB, but due to the
slow movement of the storms, will not include any other TAF sites
at this time.  MVFR ceilings will affect all area TAF sites through
31/15Z, but should lift to VFR thereafter.  VFR conditions will then
prevail through the rest of the forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...

There is an upper trough over the eastern conus putting the CWA
under northwest flow aloft.  A cold front has recently pushing
through the area and is stalled along the higher terrain.  Showers
and thunderstorms are currently moving across southeast New Mexico
as a response to the increase in lift over the region.
Precipitation will continue today mainly to the south and west of
the Pecos River.  Temperatures will be much cooler today with the
surface ridge across the area behind the front.

Conditions will be similar on Friday with showers and thunderstorms
across the same areas as the previous day and temperatures about the
same.  Locally moderate to heavy rain will be possible in these
areas with a good supply of moisture present.  An upper ridge will
begin moving and building over the region during the weekend and the
early part of next week.  Convection will be possible across the
higher terrain with instability and upslope flow present.  During
the middle part of next week, an upper trough will move over the
central plains sending a cold front southward toward the area.
Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase as a result of
this.  Temperatures are expected to remain below normal through the
early part of next week before warming to near normal by mid week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 86  66  87  66  /  20  20  20  10
BIG SPRING TX              85  66  87  67  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                86  68  83  66  /  60  30  30  30
DRYDEN TX                  92  75  91  75  /  30  30  30  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           87  69  86  69  /  40  30  30  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          81  61  75  62  /  60  50  50  60
HOBBS NM                   84  64  82  64  /  40  30  30  20
MARFA TX                   84  64  78  62  /  60  40  60  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    87  67  88  67  /  20  20  20  10
ODESSA TX                  87  67  88  67  /  20  20  20  10
WINK TX                    91  70  87  70  /  40  20  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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