Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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027
FXUS64 KMAF 141712
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1112 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light southeast winds through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Temperatures are cold again this morning across the area with most
places below freezing.  A Freeze Warning is currently in effect for
the Presidio Valley as temperatures there drop to the freezing
point.  Everywhere else in the CWA has already experienced a hard
freeze so the Presidio Valley is the only location in the Freeze
Warning.  Cloud cover over the Western Low Rolling Plains is helping
to keep temperatures a few degrees warmer although still below the
freezing point.  Surface winds will shift toward the southeast this
afternoon with the area under mostly zonal flow aloft as another
upper trough digs into the Pacific Northwest.  850 mb temperatures
will increase by a good amount today so expect high temperatures to
be 10+ degrees warmer than yesterday.

On Saturday, the upper trough will move closer to the central conus
with a portion of the trough lagging behind.  Temperatures are
expected to warm up even further Saturday afternoon to near normal
as surface winds shift toward south and west and 850 mb temps warm.
A cold front associated with the upper trough over the Upper Midwest
is expected to push into the area Saturday night/Sunday morning.
Lift will increase over the area as the upper trough moves overhead
so there will be a slight chance of precipitation across portions of
southeast New Mexico and the northern Permian Basin Sunday
afternoon.  Expect most of the precipitation to be in the form of
rain since temperatures will mostly be above freezing.  The
precipitation will shift further south into the CWA Sunday night
into Monday morning and possibly change over to snow as temperatures
drop to below freezing for a good portion of the area.  Not much
accumulation is expected.  Temperatures will remain chilly on Monday
as a result of the surface ridge to the east of the area.  The
precipitation is expected to be over with by Monday afternoon.

On Tuesday, the region will be on the backside of the upper trough
and surface winds will shift to the south.  Temperatures will warm
slightly on Tuesday as a result of this wind shift.  The surface
ridge will move well to the east on Wednesday and a surface trough
is expected to develop.  This will contribute to a good warm up on
Wednesday afternoon.  Additional warming is expected on Thursday as
the surface trough across the area strengthens.  The upper air
pattern between the GFS and ECMWF starts to diverge on Friday but
generally expect conditions to remain dry into next Saturday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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