Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 232327

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
627 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

00Z TAF issuance.

The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is the threat for TS
activity to continue the next 6 hours. Currently have thunderstorms
training over CNM and just north of HOB terminals. This activity
looks to continue and potentially shift to the south/southeast
slightly over the next several hours, resulting in periods of low
vis due to heavy rainfall as well as gusty/erratic winds. Storms
could continue beyond midnight but confidence is too low attm to
include mention of TS beyond 04Z for now. Will continue to monitor
radar trends and amend if needed. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail with thunderstorm chances possibly returning Wednesday


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 149 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016/

A rich plume of mid/upper level moisture continues to stream
across the area and early this morning was collocated with
showers in the e and s. Looks like the atmosphere is attempting
to make another run at redeveloping precip within said moisture
axis, as light showers are farther w and convection is developing
w of Valentine. We have been trying to discern shrtwv energy
embedded within the moist flow aloft and have seen hints of shrtwv
energy in satellite data. By 00Z/Wed GFS/NAM12 do indicate more
definitive shrtwv energy in the heights and vorticity fields.
Moisture anomalies of +1 to 2 standard deviations are indicative
of heavy rain potential. However we are lacking a surface boundary
and strong surface insolation. Seems appropriate to acknowledge
the heavy rain potential and we will opt to mention local heavy
rain. To get more widespread heavy rain concerns training cells
would be needed and this is possible. GFS/ECMWF hint at this with
precip overnight from NW PB-far se parts of SE NM-Upper Trans
Pecos. As such we have edged PoPs up slightly, still mostly in
the high end chance category. A slightly better chance for rain
Wed as a mid level trough will be closer. Depending on what
happens today/tonight a heightened potential for flood/flash flood
may exist Wed? Thur the mid level ridging will build w some and a
pocket of drier low level appears across parts of the PB. This
will mostly confine precip chances to the wrn areas. Thereafter
PoPs will slowly decrease and temperatures will increase, probably
to back above normal.


Big Spring                     72  91  70  93 /  30  20  40  10
Carlsbad                       66  90  66  86 /  30  30  20  50
Dryden                         71  93  71  94 /  10  20  30  20
Fort Stockton                  68  90  67  91 /  30  50  40  30
Guadalupe Pass                 62  83  62  78 /  40  30  10  50
Hobbs                          67  84  64  84 /  40  30  40  40
Marfa                          60  83  59  81 /  40  50  40  50
Midland Intl Airport           72  89  69  91 /  40  30  40  20
Odessa                         71  88  68  90 /  40  40  40  20
Wink                           70  90  69  92 /  50  60  40  30


.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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