Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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723
FXUS64 KMAF 241120
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
620 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Fog increasing across the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin with vsbys
expected to fall to LIFR at HOB... INK... and PEQ... and IFR at
MAF. Not much stratus expected. By late morning most of the fog
should be gone with conditions improving to VFR areawide. Wind
will be southerly at 10kts or less.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Clear skies and light winds have once again provided great
conditions for radiation fog to develop across parts of the area.
Given boundary layer moisture this morning is less than 24 hours
ago, widespread dense fog is not expected, though motorists and
others traveling this morning should be prepared for patchy fog that
could cause temporary visibility restrictions.

Upper ridging and high pressure will continue to build across the
region today, allowing for temperatures to rise to the middle 80s
across Southeast New Mexico and West Texas this afternoon, with
upper 70s expected over the Marfa Plateau and Guadalupe Mountains.
The warming trend will continue through the weekend, with near
record high temperatures possible on Sunday, with highs Sunday
currently forecast to be in the middle to upper 80s area-wide, with
the exception of the Southeast New Mexico Plains, Trans Pecos, and
Rio Grande Valley where low to possibly middle 90s are not out of
the question. The forecast high for Midland Sunday is 89 degrees,
one degree shy of the record of 90 set in 1950.

The aforementioned  upper level ridge will begin to flatten out
Sunday into Monday as the next Pacific trough works its way
eastward. Recent model runs have come into better agreement
regarding the trough passage early next week, as well as the
accompanying cold front which is expected to move through the area
early on Tuesday. Given a lack of moisture in place ahead of the
front, it is expected to be a dry frontal passage, though will serve
to drop temperatures into the 70s across Southeast New Mexico and
West Texas for midweek. Both the GFS and ECMWF are indicating a
secondary shortwave rounding the back side of the trough late
Tuesday night and early Wednesday, with both models generating light
QPF over the Lower Trans Pecos and Davis Mountains in southeasterly
return flow.  Thus, have maintained the low PoPs over this area,
though have still held off on mention of showers for the time being,
given how much can change between now and then.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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