Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 031757

1257 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2015


Please see the 03/18Z aviation forecast discussion below.



VFR conditions will predominate across area terminals through
04/12Z. Isolated thunderstorms should develop over the Davis
Mountains this afternoon; however, the chances of thunderstorms
impacting KFST and KPEQ are low enough to preclude mention in this
forecast. We should see a brief period of IFR to LIFR cigs at KMAF
beginning around 04/12Z. Southerly winds AOA 12 kts will continue
at all terminals except KCNM through the overnight hours.



TCU are developing over and east of the Davis Mountains, in line
with the past several HRRR runs, the NSSL WRF run, and other
parameterized models. No radar returns yet. Isolated convection
moving east off the mountains may ingest MLCAPEs of around 2500
to 3000 J/kg; however, forecast soundings also point to LFCs
around 10kft to 12kft. Low level convergence along the surface
trough/dryline is expected to be weak, so do not expect this to be
a big focus for deep convection. Deep layer shear is quite modest
as well, thus updrafts (if they can punch through warm 700 hPa
temperatures of 12-14C) will have a hard time maintaining temporal
integrity. As a result, further convective development over
northern Brewster and western Pecos counties later this afternoon
will be driven by potentially cold pools from earlier convection.
It is interesting to note that KMAF`s dewpoint is holding in the
mid 60s at present, higher than any of the model forecasts.
Secondly, there`s been net positive equivalent potential
temperature rises over most of the Permian Basin in the last three
hours. Should dewpoints should mix down into the upper 50s this
afternoon, sufficient CIN will suppress convection across the
Permian Basin. However, the last several HRRR model runs point to
convective initiation near or south of KMAF around 23Z. Hmm. In
any event, convective threats this afternoon and early this
evening will be restricted to gusty winds (owing to the depth of
the sub-cloud layer) and lightning.






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