Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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657
FXUS64 KMAF 310816
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
316 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Shallow low level mstr is in place and with daytime heating resulting
in a well mixed boundary layer convective cloud bases today will be
around 6500 ft AGL. As mid/upper level nears the Big Bend later today
there will be an increased chance of storms. Low level mstr field is
depicted to be rather diffuse except INVOF srn Pecos/nrn Brewster
where low level wind fields indicate a convergent area of low
pressure. Glass Mtns will aid in the development/initiation of
storms too. Have kept integrity of previous forecast and have
included mention of severe storms generally from Ft Stockton to Big
Lake...to Sheffield where 0-6km bulk shear increases to near 40kts.
By Wed mid level flow transitions to weak wly, but enough for
surface pressure falls to organize into a well defined lee trof with
a 22C-24C 85h thermal ridge from Panhandle into Upper Trans Pecos.
85h winds mostly 15kts or less in a well mixed and drier boundary
layer. Pattern is even moreso Thur with 85h winds mostly around
20kts and 7h winds 30-35kts. Some differences in surface low with
ECMWF the deepest and with tightest MSLP gradient...a definite
warm/drier/windier day though. Max temperature anomalies will be
about 10-13 degrees above normal, L80s-N90. 7h winds suggest high
winds will be possible in parts of the GDP Mtns. Meanwhile a cold
front will move thru the TX plains Fri AM. Post-frontal breezy
conditions are expected Fri AM across PB and across the Trans Pecos
in the PM as 7mb/3hr isallobaric pushes the front. Noticeably cooler
N of the Pecos River Fri PM, by about 20 degrees. 85h temps of
20-22c along the Rio Grande/Big Bend regions suggest temps will still
be in the 80s there. Light QPF generated by models Sat PM for the
Trans Pecos (mainly) within pocket of steeper mid level lapse
rates/upslope flow. By Easter Sunday warm low level air will already
be surging ewd and 85h temperatures may be as warm as 20C in the e
to 24C in the w. Mid level flow on Monday is setting up to be a warm
(+15 temperature departures), dry, and windy day. The warm/dry air
does not really go anywhere Tue, but winds relax some.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The warmer/dry pattern on Wed will serve to dry fine fuels while
the lack of significant wind will preclude a greater and more
widespread concern. The possible exception on Wed will be the
GDP/Delaware Mtns where ridge top winds near 20-25 mph are
expected. A more substantial concern is expected to develop Thur
when 85h-7h winds increase and much drier air surges out east
across much of the area. At this point there is a good indication
that a Fire Wx Watch will be needed for most areas except the
Lower Trans Pecos. Fuels are a concern though. Across much of the
PB there has been some green-up, however farther w in SE NM and
certainly the mtns there`s been less/no green-up, respectively.
TA&MFS` most recent assessment of fuel suggest that Initial Attack
type fires/response will increase, however the larger fuels as
seen in data like the ERC/Fuel Dryness indicates fires will
generally not show too much resistance to control. Exceptions
could be in the mtns including Davis/Delaware/GDP where there may
be higher grass loading. After the front on Fri fire wx concerns
will be renewed Sun-Tue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 84  55  85  56  /  20  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              87  59  87  59  /  30  20  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                85  53  88  55  /  10  10   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  83  59  88  59  /  30  30  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           84  57  86  59  /  50  30  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          76  52  78  54  /  20  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   84  52  84  52  /  10  10   0  10
MARFA TX                   74  45  79  47  /  30  20   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    85  56  87  57  /  30  20  10   0
ODESSA TX                  85  57  87  58  /  30  20  10  10
WINK TX                    87  54  88  54  /  20  20   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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