Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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355
FXUS64 KMAF 300817
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
317 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Light winds, clear skies and cool surface ridging in place once
again tonight however low temps will not be quite as cool as last
night. May see a light freeze near the Davis Mtns and Marfa Plateau
by sunrise. Southerly flow will become much more established across
the region by this afternoon as the surface ridge continues to move
east and a surface lee trough strengthens into eastern NM. The
warming trend will continue today with highs generally near or above
80 most locations.

Upper ridging will begin to move overhead Friday and the warming
trend will continue with above normals temps expected through the
weekend. Many locations will reach or exceed 90 degrees Sunday
afternoon. Most areas will remain dry through Saturday however there
is some indication that upslope flow Saturday afternoon may result
in some isolated convection over the Davis Mtn region. For now,
decided to leave mention out of the forecast due to lack of
moisture. Upper ridging will begin to flatten and shift east Sunday
while a Pacific upper low enters the SW ConUS, leaving SE NM and
W TX under SW flow aloft headed into next week. The dryline looks to
return this weekend but very little moisture return leave
thunderstorm chances low to nil attm.

Thunderstorm chances begin to increase Monday as the upper low
approaches, spreading upper forcing for ascent across the region.
Will continue to see moisture increase Monday night as the dryline
retreats west toward eastern NM. Tuesday looks to be the best day
for dryline thunderstorms with ample available moisture (PWATS
greater than 1 inch) and greatest upper forcing. Attm, it looks as
though Tuesday could be a good candidate for severe weather and will
continue to monitor the possibility. As the dryline retreats
Tuesday night, thunderstorms may persist overnight with the help
of a present LLJ. Upper forcing will decrease Wednesday with the
departing upper low and precip chances will diminish from west to
east.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 82  51  85  55  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              83  53  86  56  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                86  50  88  52  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  83  53  85  56  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           83  54  86  57  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          79  56  83  56  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   82  49  85  52  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   76  41  80  45  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    83  53  86  56  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  82  53  86  56  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    85  51  89  56  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/27

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