Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 271056

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
556 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015


See 12z aviation discussion below.



VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will be
light and somewhat variable.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015/


Not many changes to current forecast.  WV imagery shows an upper
ridge extending from Baja NE into the upper Midwest, adjacent to a
trough centered over the Texas Gulf Coast.  Area radars look pretty
bare attm, as last night`s convection has diminished.  The NAM, and
to a lesser extent, GFS, try to bring a vort max around the trough
and into the lwr Trans Pecos this afternoon, whereas the ECMWF keeps
things dry.

Otherwise, the Gulf Coast trough is forecast to lift into the SE
CONUS and shear out by midweek, w/the upper ridge building in to
West Texas and Southeast New Mexico to keep temps above normal
throughout the week, and grids dry.  Late in the extended, the GFS
and ECMWF bring a trough thru the Central Plains, and drop a cold
front into the FA Friday night/Saturday.  The GFS is a little
faster/stronger w/the front, bringing it thru KMAF at around 03Z
Sat, whereas the ECMWF follows 12-18Z Saturday.  This should knock
temps down to around normal Saturday, but the front looks dry attm.





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