Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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522
FXUS64 KMAF 110514
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1214 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A cold front will move south to near the higher terrain of west
Texas and near Interstate 10 by morning.  Expect east to northeast
winds behind the front, and some gusts through at least 11/10Z.
Expect lower clouds to develop, but it is not certain whether the
lower deck will be MVFR, or low VFR.  For now, have kept VFR for the
duration and will update accordingly when the lower deck develops.
If the lower ceilings are realized, think these will lift to VFR by
late morning/early afternoon.  TSRA look most likely this afternoon/
evening at KCNM, KPEQ and KFST.  Have gone with Prob30 at the rest
of the sites.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 249 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2014/

Very hot temperatures today will give way to much cooler conditions
behind a cold front this evening.  Rain chances also ramp up the rest
of this week.

We are well on our way to near record highs this afternoon as 2 PM
CDT temps are already in the mid to upper 90s along and south of the
I-20 corridor.  The first of two cold fronts is currently making its
way slowly through the central Permian Basin.  Temperatures are much
cooler behind the front which should make it to near the I-10
corridor by morning.  Isolated showers and storms are expected to
form along and north of the front tonight as winds become more
easterly and moist upslope flow ensues.  A chance of storms will
continue into Thursday afternoon along the front.  Heavy rain will be
a possibility as weak mid level flow aloft will create slow storm
motions.  High temperatures tomorrow afternoon will cool mostly into
the 80s or possibly lower if we get more clouds and rain.

Another, more potent shortwave will dig south into the Plains
tomorrow.  This system has unseasonably cold air behind it with snow
expected as far south as Colorado and Nebraska! The cold front
associated with this wave will enter the TX Panhandle Friday morning
and quickly push south into the Permian Basin by lunch time.  Many
locations will reach their high temperature in the morning with
readings falling 20-30 degrees behind the front! Will indicate this
in the forecast for Friday with a non-diurnal temperature curve
mostly following the NAM.  The front will also be accompanied by
very strong northerly winds and widespread showers and storms.
Will continue to monitor for possible high winds at Guadalupe
Pass.  As this time, it appears they will get close Friday night
and Saturday morning.  Saturday looks to be the coolest day with
temperatures well below normal.

The upper ridge begins to build to our west and return flow starts
to warm the region early next week.  We will transition into weak
northwesterly mid level flow which will allow disturbances to move
across the area.  It is hard to time these disturbances more than a
day or two out so will not increase PoPs just yet in the extended.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$



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