Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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185
FXUS64 KMAF 171100
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
457 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  Winds will
remain light and change from the northwest to the southeast by this
afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A relatively quiet period of weather is in store for West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico this week, dominated mainly by an upper lvl
ridge set to move in from the west.

Yesterday`s cold front brrrrought a modified Arctic AMS into the
region, as noted by current temps in the teens along the nrn tier
zones.  Like the previous Arctic AMS, this one was somewhat colder
than anticipated, and current forecast soundings/H85 temp fields
suggest generally staying toward the lower end of guidance in the
short term.  As the sfc ridge slides east later today, winds will
veer to SE by late afternoon and CAA will cease.  However, return
flow will be light, and temps slow to warm under NW flow aloft.  As
noted above, an upper lvl ridge is forecast to develop over the west
coast, but a Pacific trough is set to dampen this feature as it
moves inland, w/the net result of just transitioning NW flow aloft
to zonal.  Thus, temps should not climb back to normal until
Thursday afternoon.  Thursday, the aforementioned Pac trough will
pass thru the area, greatly diminished, and drop a cold front into
the area Thursday night.  The GFS/ECMWF are faster w/the
trough/front than the DGEX/CMC, but this is a rather moot point, as
this will be a dry event, and the front weak.  Temps should drop
just a few degrees Friday, and rebound Saturday.

Meanwhile, a second, deeper Pac trough follows the first, and
arrives Saturday.  Models don`t advertise much of a cold front
w/this feature, but hint at developing a weak dryline over the ern
zones, for a slight chance of convection along the eastern
periphery.  Otherwise, grids stay dry, and temps
near-normal.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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