Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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623
FXUS64 KMAF 261124
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
624 AM CDT Tue May 26 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions with light winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT Tue May 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Surface analysis this morning shows a weak surface low in
southeastern New Mexico extending south into the Davis Mountains.
Westerly mid and upper level flow will mix to the surface with
afternoon heating and push this trough into the central Permian
Basin with isolated thunderstorms developing to the east of this
feature beginning in the late afternoon and reaching maximum
coverage during the early evening. There will be quite a bit of
potential instability today but shear will be marginal for severe
storms.

Wednesday the focus for rain will shift back to the west as
another low digs into the southwestern U.S. pulling moisture back
against the mountains. Convection will develop with the help of
the terrain Wednesday evening then move east and expand in
coverage Thursday with the support of an upper level disturbance
moving northeast out of Mexico. Westerly upper flow Friday will
decrease PoPs but an approaching cold front Saturday will increase
rain chances once again. It is currently expected to move into the
Permian Basin Saturday night, which is when the PoPs are greatest,
but convective outflow could push this front through sooner and we
may end up seeing most of the rain Saturday...then decreasing
overnight. Clouds and rain will keep temps at or below normal the
next week ensuring that May will finish below normal in average
temperature for the first time in 5 years.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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