Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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937
FXUS64 KMAF 251108
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
508 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions with an abundance of high clouds are expected the
next 24 hours. Light winds early this morning will generally
become south at 10 to 20 mph through early this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...As of 4:30 AM CST Thursday...skies are clear across
the CWA. Water vapor imagery is indc a mid/upper system moving
through the Wasatch Range in Utah with a trof stretching
southwest.

Southwest flow sfc/aloft will bring above normal temps to the CWA
today and Friday. High clouds associated with the trof will temper
the high temps a bit...even with the downslope flow. It looks like
it will be windy today across the Guadalupe Mtns...but latest
thinking is that it should remain below warning criteria. This
will continue to be monitored.

The mid/upper trof weakens and splits as it moves east with the
southern portion struggling to move across the Southern Plains
this weekend. This trof will drag a cold front thru the CWA...with
the models waffling on how much cold air will drop this far south
and how much moisture there will be to work with. With the model
differences have went with slight chc pops in southeast New Mexico
Friday...with slight chances slowly moving south and east through
Saturday night. Temperature profiles keep the precip liquid through
Friday evening...then mixing or changing to snow late Friday night
and Saturday. With slight chc pops and light showers at most it
does not look like there will be any significant winter weather.
Temps will be below normal Saturday...warming to near normal on
Sunday and Monday.

On Tuesday a shortwave diving south out of the Northwest
Territories of Canada will move into the Desert Southwest with a
cold front moving through the CWA. This system will slowly lift
ENE into the Northern TX Panhandle by late Thursday. The models
have pulled back on the amount of cold air that will move into the
CWA. Whereas temps will be well below normal models are not nearly
as cold as they have been showing the past several days. It will
be interesting to see what future model runs show. The models are
also waffling on how much...if any precipitation will occur with
this system. For now the forecast will show slight chance pops for
the end of 2014.

Strobin

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 62  37  62  28  /   0   0  10  20
BIG SPRING TX              63  40  67  32  /   0   0  10  20
CARLSBAD NM                69  34  59  29  /   0   0  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  61  36  66  39  /   0   0  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           71  43  67  34  /   0   0  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          59  38  50  28  /   0   0  20  20
HOBBS NM                   63  32  57  26  /   0   0  10  20
MARFA TX                   63  30  61  29  /   0   0  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    63  35  66  27  /   0   0  10  20
ODESSA TX                  63  39  63  29  /   0   0  10  20
WINK TX                    66  34  67  31  /   0   0  10  20

&&


.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/33

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364
FXUS64 KMAF 251051
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
451 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...As of 4:30 AM CST Thursday...skies are clear across
the CWA. Water vapor imagery is indc a mid/upper system moving
through the Wasatch Range in Utah with a trof stretching
southwest.

Southwest flow sfc/aloft will bring above normal temps to the CWA
today and Friday. High clouds associated with the trof will temper
the high temps a bit...even with the downslope flow. It looks like
it will be windy today across the Guadalupe Mtns...but latest
thinking is that it should remain below warning criteria. This
will continue to be monitored.

The mid/upper trof weakens and splits as it moves east with the
southern portion struggling to move across the Southern Plains
this weekend. This trof will drag a cold front thru the CWA...with
the models waffling on how much cold air will drop this far south
and how much moisture there will be to work with. With the model
differences have went with slight chc pops in southeast New Mexico
Friday...with slight chances slowly moving south and east through
Saturday night. Temperature profiles keep the precip liquid through
Friday evening...then mixing or changing to snow late Friday night
and Saturday. With slight chc pops and light showers at most it
does not look like there will be any significant winter weather.
Temps will be below normal Saturday...warming to near normal on
Sunday and Monday.

On Tuesday a shortwave diving south out of the Northwest
Territories of Canada will move into the Desert Southwest with a
cold front moving through the CWA. This system will slowly lift
ENE into the Northern TX Panhandle by late Thursday. The models
have pulled back on the amount of cold air that will move into the
CWA. Whereas temps will be well below normal models are not nearly
as cold as they have been showing the past several days. It will
be interesting to see what future model runs show. The models are
also waffling on how much...if any precipitation will occur with
this system. For now the forecast will show slight chance pops for
the end of 2014.

Strobin


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 62  37  62  28  /   0   0  10  20
BIG SPRING TX              63  40  67  32  /   0   0  10  20
CARLSBAD NM                69  34  59  29  /   0   0  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  61  36  66  39  /   0   0  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           71  43  67  34  /   0   0  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          59  38  50  28  /   0   0  20  20
HOBBS NM                   63  32  57  26  /   0   0  10  20
MARFA TX                   63  30  61  29  /   0   0  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    63  35  66  27  /   0   0  10  20
ODESSA TX                  63  39  63  29  /   0   0  10  20
WINK TX                    66  34  67  31  /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/33

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471
FXUS64 KMAF 250510
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1110 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, in SE-S return flow. NW
flow aloft will quickly transition to SW as the next trough
approaches the Four Corners, w/a few mid/high clouds possible after
sunrise.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 917 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, in SE-S return flow. NW
flow aloft will quickly transition to SW as the next trough
approaches the Four Corners, w/a few mid/high clouds possible after
sunrise.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Another chilly night is on tap across the region for tonight, with
clear skies allowing for ample radiational cooling and lows expected
to drop to the upper 20s to low 30s area-wide.  The only exception,
like last night, is the Marfa Plateau, which will once again see low
temperatures bottoming out in the middle to upper teens.

While today saw a bit of a warm up from yesterday, the warming trend
on Christmas Day will be much more pronounced as weak ridging
transitions to quasi-zonal flow aloft, and southwesterly downsloping
winds overspread the area at the surface.  Highs tomorrow will be in
the 60s, with warmest temperatures along the Pecos River Valley
where highs could reach the low 70s in some spots.  The warming
trend will be short-lived, however, as a southern stream shortwave
trough ejects across the southwest toward West Texas, coincident
with a cold front that will slowly push through the area early
Saturday. There still remains some uncertainty regarding the timing
and interaction of the shortwave with the cold front, and how much
precipitation will result.  Thus, have maintained generally slight
chance pops during the Friday night-Saturday night time frame, with
the best shot of snow/wintry mix across northern portions of the
forecast area late Friday night, as well as on Saturday night over
higher terrain in the Davis and Glass Mountains to the south.

For next week, models continue to indicate a high-amplitude
positively-tilted upper trough and accompanying strong cold front
moving trough the region by next Tuesday-Wednesday.  Latest guidance
shows a rather substantial intrusion of Arctic Air with this system,
and thus have sided again with cooler guidance for the latter part
of the extended, though have not lowered temperatures as much as may
be necessary given how much can change between now and then.
Precipitation also remains a big question for next week`s system,
and given model discrepancies in handling not only precipitation
chances but also precipitation type, have not included any
mentionable PoPs for the extended at this time pending a clearer
picture in later model runs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 30  62  38  63  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              31  63  40  66  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                31  69  37  63  /   0   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  29  61  38  66  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           34  71  43  67  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          30  59  39  54  /   0   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                   27  63  34  60  /   0   0   0  10
MARFA TX                   17  63  30  60  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    29  63  37  66  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  29  63  39  65  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    28  66  35  67  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/84

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789
FXUS64 KMAF 250317
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
917 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, in SE-S return flow. NW
flow aloft will quickly transition to SW as the next trough
approaches the Four Corners, w/a few mid/high clouds possible after
sunrise.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Another chilly night is on tap across the region for tonight, with
clear skies allowing for ample radiational cooling and lows expected
to drop to the upper 20s to low 30s area-wide.  The only exception,
like last night, is the Marfa Plateau, which will once again see low
temperatures bottoming out in the middle to upper teens.

While today saw a bit of a warm up from yesterday, the warming trend
on Christmas Day will be much more pronounced as weak ridging
transitions to quasi-zonal flow aloft, and southwesterly downsloping
winds overspread the area at the surface.  Highs tomorrow will be in
the 60s, with warmest temperatures along the Pecos River Valley
where highs could reach the low 70s in some spots.  The warming
trend will be short-lived, however, as a southern stream shortwave
trough ejects across the southwest toward West Texas, coincident
with a cold front that will slowly push through the area early
Saturday. There still remains some uncertainty regarding the timing
and interaction of the shortwave with the cold front, and how much
precipitation will result.  Thus, have maintained generally slight
chance pops during the Friday night-Saturday night time frame, with
the best shot of snow/wintry mix across northern portions of the
forecast area late Friday night, as well as on Saturday night over
higher terrain in the Davis and Glass Mountains to the south.

For next week, models continue to indicate a high-amplitude
positively-tilted upper trough and accompanying strong cold front
moving trough the region by next Tuesday-Wednesday.  Latest guidance
shows a rather substantial intrusion of Arctic Air with this system,
and thus have sided again with cooler guidance for the latter part
of the extended, though have not lowered temperatures as much as may
be necessary given how much can change between now and then.
Precipitation also remains a big question for next week`s system,
and given model discrepancies in handling not only precipitation
chances but also precipitation type, have not included any
mentionable PoPs for the extended at this time pending a clearer
picture in later model runs.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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853
FXUS64 KMAF 242158
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
358 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, in southerly return
flow. NW flow aloft will quickly transition to SW as the next
trough approaches the Four Corners, w/a few mid/high clouds possible
after sunrise.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Another chilly night is on tap across the region for tonight, with
clear skies allowing for ample radiational cooling and lows expected
to drop to the upper 20s to low 30s area-wide.  The only exception,
like last night, is the Marfa Plateau, which will once again see low
temperatures bottoming out in the middle to upper teens.

While today saw a bit of a warm up from yesterday, the warming trend
on Christmas Day will be much more pronounced as weak ridging
transitions to quasi-zonal flow aloft, and southwesterly downsloping
winds overspread the area at the surface.  Highs tomorrow will be in
the 60s, with warmest temperatures along the Pecos River Valley
where highs could reach the low 70s in some spots.  The warming
trend will be short-lived, however, as a southern stream shortwave
trough ejects across the southwest toward West Texas, coincident
with a cold front that will slowly push through the area early
Saturday. There still remains some uncertainty regarding the timing
and interaction of the shortwave with the cold front, and how much
precipitation will result.  Thus, have maintained generally slight
chance pops during the Friday night-Saturday night time frame, with
the best shot of snow/wintry mix across northern portions of the
forecast area late Friday night, as well as on Saturday night over
higher terrain in the Davis and Glass Mountains to the south.

For next week, models continue to indicate a high-amplitude
positively-tilted upper trough and accompanying strong cold front
moving trough the region by next Tuesday-Wednesday.  Latest guidance
shows a rather substantial intrusion of Arctic Air with this system,
and thus have sided again with cooler guidance for the latter part
of the extended, though have not lowered temperatures as much as may
be necessary given how much can change between now and then.
Precipitation also remains a big question for next week`s system,
and given model discrepancies in handling not only precipitation
chances but also precipitation type, have not included any
mentionable PoPs for the extended at this time pending a clearer
picture in later model runs.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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339
FXUS64 KMAF 242103
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
303 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Another chilly night is on tap across the region for tonight, with
clear skies allowing for ample radiational cooling and lows expected
to drop to the upper 20s to low 30s area-wide.  The only exception,
like last night, is the Marfa Plateau, which will once again see low
temperatures bottoming out in the middle to upper teens.

While today saw a bit of a warm up from yesterday, the warming trend
on Christmas Day will be much more pronounced as weak ridging
transitions to quasi-zonal flow aloft, and southwesterly downsloping
winds overspread the area at the surface.  Highs tomorrow will be in
the 60s, with warmest temperatures along the Pecos River Valley
where highs could reach the low 70s in some spots.  The warming
trend will be short-lived, however, as a southern stream shortwave
trough ejects across the southwest toward West Texas, coincident
with a cold front that will slowly push through the area early
Saturday. There still remains some uncertainty regarding the timing
and interaction of the shortwave with the cold front, and how much
precipitation will result.  Thus, have maintained generally slight
chance pops during the Friday night-Saturday night time frame, with
the best shot of snow/wintry mix across northern portions of the
forecast area late Friday night, as well as on Saturday night over
higher terrain in the Davis and Glass Mountains to the south.

For next week, models continue to indicate a high-amplitude
positively-tilted upper trough and accompanying strong cold front
moving trough the region by next Tuesday-Wednesday.  Latest guidance
shows a rather substantial intrusion of Arctic Air with this system,
and thus have sided again with cooler guidance for the latter part
of the extended, though have not lowered temperatures as much as may
be necessary given how much can change between now and then.
Precipitation also remains a big question for next week`s system,
and given model discrepancies in handling not only precipitation
chances but also precipitation type, have not included any
mentionable PoPs for the extended at this time pending a clearer
picture in later model runs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 30  62  38  63  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              31  63  40  66  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                31  69  37  63  /   0   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  29  61  38  66  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           34  71  43  67  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          30  59  39  54  /   0   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                   27  63  34  60  /   0   0   0  10
MARFA TX                   17  63  30  60  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    29  63  37  66  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  29  63  39  65  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    28  66  35  67  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/84

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310
FXUS64 KMAF 241658
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1058 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail over all southeast New Mexico and west
Texas terminals through Christmas Day.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2014/

As of 4:30 AM CST Wednesday...Clear to partly cloudy skies are
the rule this morning across the CWA with cold temps.

Ridging will move into the Plains ahead of a trof moving into the
Pacific NW. Temps will begin to moderate slightly this aftn...and
take a more pronounced jump on Christmas Day as the flow becomes
southwest/downslope off the Rockies. Temps will remain above
normal on Friday with the downslope flow.

The trof will split as it moves out of the Rockies. The southern
portion of the trof will move over the state over the weekend.
Models have had a difficult time with the strength and the amount
of moisture this system will have to work with. As of now...it
looks like a cold front will struggle its way across the CWA
Friday night through Sat night. Due to the uncertainty and model
differences have gone with slight chc pops at most for this
period. Looks like there could be a rain/snow mix in the north
Friday night and Saturday...with a slight chc of snow showers Sat
night. At this time it does not appear that any snow that does
fall will be significant but we will of course be monitoring the
situation. Northwest flow Sunday and Monday will keep the CWA dry
with temps a little below normal.

Looks like the first real Arctic outbreak of the winter will
affect the CWA around Tuesday/Wednesday of next week. A shortwave
will drop south out of the Canadian Northwest Territories on
Sunday and deepen as it moves south and cuts off in the Desert
Southwest on Wednesday. Models have been consistent in bringing a
strong cold front thru the CWA Tuesday with very cold air behind
this (H85 temps of -15C over Midland Wednesday morning). What they
haven`t been consistent with is whether there will be any...or how
much snow this system will bring. As we get closer we will have a
better idea but this does bear watching for the end of 2014.

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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967
FXUS64 KMAF 241147
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
547 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See Aviation Discussion below.


&&

.AVIATION...As of 5:40 AM CST Wednesday...Satl imagery and sfc obs
show crystal clear skies across all the terminals. Expect clear
skies through the forecast period. Winds will remain generally
light from the west and southwest. Winds will could be as high as
11 kt today...decreasing after sunset.

Strobin

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...As of 4:30 AM CST Wednesday...Clear to partly cloudy
skies are the rule this morning across the CWA with cold temps.

Ridging will move into the Plains ahead of a trof moving into the
Pacific NW. Temps will begin to moderate slightly this aftn...and
take a more pronounced jump on Christmas Day as the flow becomes
southwest/downslope off the Rockies. Temps will remain above
normal on Friday with the downslope flow.

The trof will split as it moves out of the Rockies. The southern
portion of the trof will move over the state over the weekend.
Models have had a difficult time with the strength and the amount
of moisture this system will have to work with. As of now...it
looks like a cold front will struggle its way across the CWA
Friday night through Sat night. Due to the uncertainty and model
differences have gone with slight chc pops at most for this
period. Looks like there could be a rain/snow mix in the north
Friday night and Saturday...with a slight chc of snow showers Sat
night. At this time it does not appear that any snow that does
fall will be significant but we will of course be monitoring the
situation. Northwest flow Sunday and Monday will keep the CWA dry
with temps a little below normal.

Looks like the first real Arctic outbreak of the winter will
affect the CWA around Tuesday/Wednesday of next week. A shortwave
will drop south out of the Canadian Northwest Territories on
Sunday and deepen as it moves south and cuts off in the Desert
Southwest on Wednesday. Models have been consistent in bringing a
strong cold front thru the CWA Tuesday with very cold air behind
this (H85 temps of -15C over Midland Wednesday morning). What they
haven`t been consistent with is whether there will be any...or how
much snow this system will bring. As we get closer we will have a
better idea but this does bear watching for the end of 2014.

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12

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523
FXUS64 KMAF 241049
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
449 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...As of 4:30 AM CST Wednesday...Clear to partly cloudy
skies are the rule this morning across the CWA with cold temps.

Ridging will move into the Plains ahead of a trof moving into the
Pacific NW. Temps will begin to moderate slightly this aftn...and
take a more pronounced jump on Christmas Day as the flow becomes
southwest/downslope off the Rockies. Temps will remain above
normal on Friday with the downslope flow.

The trof will split as it moves out of the Rockies. The southern
portion of the trof will move over the state over the weekend.
Models have had a difficult time with the strength and the amount
of moisture this system will have to work with. As of now...it
looks like a cold front will struggle its way across the CWA
Friday night through Sat night. Due to the uncertainty and model
differences have gone with slight chc pops at most for this
period. Looks like there could be a rain/snow mix in the north
Friday night and Saturday...with a slight chc of snow showers Sat
night. At this time it does not appear that any snow that does
fall will be significant but we will of course be monitoring the
situation. Northwest flow Sunday and Monday will keep the CWA dry
with temps a little below normal.

Looks like the first real Arctic outbreak of the winter will
affect the CWA around Tuesday/Wednesday of next week. A shortwave
will drop south out of the Canadian Northwest Territories on
Sunday and deepen as it moves south and cuts off in the Desert
Southwest on Wednesday. Models have been consistent in bringing a
strong cold front thru the CWA Tuesday with very cold air behind
this (H85 temps of -15C over Midland Wednesday morning). What they
haven`t been consistent with is whether there will be any...or how
much snow this system will bring. As we get closer we will have a
better idea but this does bear watching for the end of 2014.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 49  31  62  37  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              51  31  63  40  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                51  30  68  37  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  56  28  63  36  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           52  36  70  43  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          44  31  58  39  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   48  27  63  34  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   48  17  62  29  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    50  29  63  35  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  50  31  63  38  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    53  27  65  34  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/33

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437
FXUS64 KMAF 240400
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1000 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2014

DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, as post-trough
subsidence leads to CAVU conditions by sunrise. Sfc flow will back
to SW over the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A wintry mix of precipitation continues to wind down and shift south
and east as the trough axis shifts east of the area, though winds
over far southeastern New Mexico and northwestern Permian Basin have
increased, with gusts up to 40 to 50KT reported this afternoon in
northern and central Lea county and northwestern Gaines county.
There is a Wind Advisory in effect for these locations until 00Z
this evening, when gusts are expected to diminish.

Clearing skies and continued cold advection tonight will result in
quite cold temperatures overnight, with lows dropping to the 20s
across most of the area, and coldest conditions expected on the
Marfa Plateau where the low should bottom out in the middle teens.
Weak ridging will develop over the area on Wednesday and Thursday as
today`s trough lifts toward the northeast, allowing temperatures to
moderate into the upper 40s to low 50s Wednesday, and then warm to
the 60s and perhaps even a few spots in the low 70s on Christmas
Day. The warming trend will be short-lived, however, as another
trough is expected to swing through the region, accompanied by a
surface cold front this weekend. Temperatures over the weekend will
once again drop below normal, and given there will be moisture
accompanying this system, a wintry mix of precipitation is possible
over the weekend. Differences in timing of the front and cold air
still exist between different guidance, however, thus, have
maintained the slight chance/chance pops during the Friday
night-Saturday night time frame, with the best shot of snow Saturday
night when temperatures drop into the 20s area-wide and before the
trough shifts east of the area.

A high-amplitude positively-tilted upper trough is progged to move
through the region by next Tuesday-Wednesday, with guidance
indicating very strong cold air advection behind a potent cold
front, which could spell our first real cold blast of this winter
season. Thus, have sided with the cooler ECMWF guidance, though have
held back on any mentionable PoPs for the time being.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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290
FXUS64 KMAF 240003
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
603 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2014

.UPDATE...

Update to allow the Wind Advisory to expire.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Surface winds are decreasing early this evening as the pressure
gradient slowly slackens, and cooling temperatures are allowing
winds to decouple from h85 winds on the order of 30 to 40kt.  With
the loss of heating, showers over the area were also diminishing,
which will limit higher surface wind gusts from precipitation
evaporating in the drier lower levels of the atmosphere.
Considering all of the above, will allow the Wind Advisory in effect
until 24/00Z over northern and central Lea county, and Gaines
county, to expire.  The rest of the forecast appears to be on track
with a gradually clearing sky and temperatures dropping into the 20s
and lower 30s overnight.  Therefore, there will be no other changes
to the forecast at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Upper-lvl trough movg
thru Texas will be followed by subsidence/clearing skies and
slackening pressure gradients, w/sfc flow backing slightly after sunrise.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A wintry mix of precipitation continues to wind down and shift south
and east as the trough axis shifts east of the area, though winds
over far southeastern New Mexico and northwestern Permian Basin have
increased, with gusts up to 40 to 50KT reported this afternoon in
northern and central Lea county and northwestern Gaines county.
There is a Wind Advisory in effect for these locations until 00Z
this evening, when gusts are expected to diminish.

Clearing skies and continued cold advection tonight will result in
quite cold temperatures overnight, with lows dropping to the 20s
across most of the area, and coldest conditions expected on the
Marfa Plateau where the low should bottom out in the middle teens.
Weak ridging will develop over the area on Wednesday and Thursday as
today`s trough lifts toward the northeast, allowing temperatures to
moderate into the upper 40s to low 50s Wednesday, and then warm to
the 60s and perhaps even a few spots in the low 70s on Christmas
Day. The warming trend will be short-lived, however, as another
trough is expected to swing through the region, accompanied by a
surface cold front this weekend. Temperatures over the weekend will
once again drop below normal, and given there will be moisture
accompanying this system, a wintry mix of precipitation is possible
over the weekend. Differences in timing of the front and cold air
still exist between different guidance, however, thus, have
maintained the slight chance/chance pops during the Friday
night-Saturday night time frame, with the best shot of snow Saturday
night when temperatures drop into the 20s area-wide and before the
trough shifts east of the area.

A high-amplitude positively-tilted upper trough is progged to move
through the region by next Tuesday-Wednesday, with guidance
indicating very strong cold air advection behind a potent cold
front, which could spell our first real cold blast of this winter
season. Thus, have sided with the cooler ECMWF guidance, though have
held back on any mentionable PoPs for the time being.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 28  49  29  62  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              31  51  31  63  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                25  51  34  68  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  34  56  30  63  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           27  52  36  70  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          23  44  31  58  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   24  48  25  63  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   16  48  17  62  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    27  50  29  63  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  27  50  29  63  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    26  53  25  65  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

03/84

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492
FXUS64 KMAF 232230
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
430 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Upper-lvl trough movg
thru Texas will be followed by subsidence/clearing skies and
slackening pressure gradients, w/sfc flow backing slightly after sunrise.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A wintry mix of precipitation continues to wind down and shift south
and east as the trough axis shifts east of the area, though winds
over far southeastern New Mexico and northwestern Permian Basin have
increased, with gusts up to 40 to 50KT reported this afternoon in
northern and central Lea county and northwestern Gaines county.
There is a Wind Advisory in effect for these locations until 00Z
this evening, when gusts are expected to diminish.

Clearing skies and continued cold advection tonight will result in
quite cold temperatures overnight, with lows dropping to the 20s
across most of the area, and coldest conditions expected on the
Marfa Plateau where the low should bottom out in the middle teens.
Weak ridging will develop over the area on Wednesday and Thursday as
today`s trough lifts toward the northeast, allowing temperatures to
moderate into the upper 40s to low 50s Wednesday, and then warm to
the 60s and perhaps even a few spots in the low 70s on Christmas
Day. The warming trend will be short-lived, however, as another
trough is expected to swing through the region, accompanied by a
surface cold front this weekend. Temperatures over the weekend will
once again drop below normal, and given there will be moisture
accompanying this system, a wintry mix of precipitation is possible
over the weekend. Differences in timing of the front and cold air
still exist between different guidance, however, thus, have
maintained the slight chance/chance pops during the Friday
night-Saturday night time frame, with the best shot of snow Saturday
night when temperatures drop into the 20s area-wide and before the
trough shifts east of the area.

A high-amplitude positively-tilted upper trough is progged to move
through the region by next Tuesday-Wednesday, with guidance
indicating very strong cold air advection behind a potent cold
front, which could spell our first real cold blast of this winter
season. Thus, have sided with the cooler ECMWF guidance, though have
held back on any mentionable PoPs for the time being.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WIND ADVISORY until 5 PM MST this afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Northern Lea County.

TX...WIND ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Gaines.


&&

$$

44

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077
FXUS64 KMAF 232059
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
259 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A wintry mix of precipitation continues to wind down and shift south
and east as the trough axis shifts east of the area, though winds
over far southeastern New Mexico and northwestern Permian Basin have
increased, with gusts up to 40 to 50KT reported this afternoon in
northern and central Lea county and northwestern Gaines county.
There is a Wind Advisory in effect for these locations until 00Z
this evening, when gusts are expected to diminish.

Clearing skies and continued cold advection tonight will result in
quite cold temperatures overnight, with lows dropping to the 20s
across most of the area, and coldest conditions expected on the
Marfa Plateau where the low should bottom out in the middle teens.
Weak ridging will develop over the area on Wednesday and Thursday as
today`s trough lifts toward the northeast, allowing temperatures to
moderate into the upper 40s to low 50s Wednesday, and then warm to
the 60s and perhaps even a few spots in the low 70s on Christmas
Day. The warming trend will be short-lived, however, as another
trough is expected to swing through the region, accompanied by a
surface cold front this weekend. Temperatures over the weekend will
once again drop below normal, and given there will be moisture
accompanying this system, a wintry mix of precipitation is possible
over the weekend. Differences in timing of the front and cold air
still exist between different guidance, however, thus, have
maintained the slight chance/chance pops during the Friday
night-Saturday night time frame, with the best shot of snow Saturday
night when temperatures drop into the 20s area-wide and before the
trough shifts east of the area.

A high-amplitude positively-tilted upper trough is progged to move
through the region by next Tuesday-Wednesday, with guidance
indicating very strong cold air advection behind a potent cold
front, which could spell our first real cold blast of this winter
season. Thus, have sided with the cooler ECMWF guidance, though have
held back on any mentionable PoPs for the time being.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 47  28  49  29  /  40   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              49  31  51  31  /  40   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                48  25  51  34  /  20   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  54  34  56  30  /  20   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           49  27  52  36  /  40   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          41  23  44  31  /  30   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   46  24  48  25  /  30   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   42  16  48  17  /  20   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    48  27  50  29  /  40   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  48  27  50  29  /  40   0   0   0
WINK TX                    51  26  53  25  /  40   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WIND ADVISORY until 5 PM MST this afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Northern Lea County.

TX...WIND ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Gaines.


&&

$$

03/84

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090
FXUS64 KMAF 231745
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1145 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Please see the 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Areas of rain will gradually diminish at TAF sites this afternoon.
IFR/MVFR ceilings will improve through the afternoon making way
for VFR conditions as drier air begins to work its way into the
area and an upper level disturbance slides east of the area.
Surface winds will remain slightly breezy at TAF locations the
next couple hours before finally tapering off.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...As of 4:15 AM CST Tuesday...have canceled both the
High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe/Davis Mtns and the Winter
Weather Advisory for the Northern Permian Basin and parts of
Southeast New Mexico.

The cold front has made it almost to Presidio. Showers have
occurred overnight across the CWA north of the Davis Mtns. Due to
temps above freezing...even upstream well into the Texas Panhandle
have canceled the Winter Weather Advisory. Forecast soundings are
indc sfc temps above freezing. Bottom line is that the Boundary
Layer is too warm...and with most of the dew pts above freezing it
looks like any snow that mixes in will not accumulate. The only
exception is the Davis/Apache and Guadalupe Mtns where H85 temps
will be near if not slightly below freezing. In those places any
snow that does accumulate will be less than an inch and mainly on
grassy surfaces. Have canceled the High Wind Warning for the
Davis and Guadalupe Mtns since the expected strong winds failed to
materialized per the Mt Locke/Mt Fowlkes/GDP obs. The VAD Wind
profile at MAF are also not indc very strong winds aloft. Winds
might increase...but will stay below High Wind criteria.

Showers will gradually decrease from the north today as the upper
trof moves east. After a cool day today and a cold night tonight
temps will slowly moderate on Wednesday as ridging moves overhead.
Temps will warm to 5-10 degrees above normal with dry weather on
Christmas Day with southwest/downslope winds. Temps will cool a
little on Friday ahead of a upper trof moving out of the Rockies.
This trof is fcst to deepen as it moves into the Plains...and will
drive a cold front south in the CWA over the weekend. Models are
not in sync with the timing of the front...so it will be difficult
to determine when...and what kind of precipitation to expect. Dry
weather will return next Monday with near normal temps before
another system is forecast to dig south into the Desert Southwest
next Tuesday.

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

03

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913
FXUS64 KMAF 231148
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
548 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Upper level storm system was producing areas of light rain/snow
across much of the Permian Basin and Lea County New Mexico this
morning. Expecting prevailing light rain/snow to continue at the
terminals thru mid to late morning with prevailing VFR to MVFR
ceilings and mainly TEMPO MVFR ceilings. The precipitation should
end by 18z at all the terminals with VFR conditions this afternoon
and tonight. Winds today will be northerly at 10 to 20 knots and
gusty. Winds will diminish and become 10 to 15 knots by early this
evening.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...As of 4:15 AM CST Tuesday...have cancelled both the
High Wind Warning for the Guadalupes/Davis Mtns and the Winter
Weather Advisory for the Northern Permian Basin and parts of
Southeast New Mexico.

The cold front has made it almost to Presidio. Showers have
occurred overnight across the CWA north of the Davis Mtns. Due to
temps above freezing...even upstream well into the Texas Panhandle
have cancelled the Winter Weather Advisory. Forecast soundings are
indc sfc temps above freezing. Bottom line is that the Boundary
Layer is too warm...and with most of the dew pts above freezing it
looks like any snow that mixes in will not accumulate. The only
exception is the Davis/Apache and Guadalupe Mtns where H85 temps
will be near if not slightly below freezing. In those places any
snow that does accumulate will be less than an inch and mainly on
grassy surfaces. Have cancelled the High Wind Warning for the
Davis and Guadalupe Mtns since the expected strong winds failed to
materialized per the Mt Locke/Mt Fowlkes/GDP obs. The VAD Wind
profile at MAF are also not indc very strong winds aloft. Winds
might increase...but will stay below High Wind criteria.

Showers will gradually decrease from the north today as the upper
trof moves east. After a cool day today and a cold night tonight
temps will slowly moderate on Wednesday as ridging moves overhead.
Temps will warm to 5-10 degrees above normal with dry weather on
Christmas Day with southwest/downslope winds. Temps will cool a
little on Friday ahead of a upper trof moving out of the Rockies.
This trof is fcst to deepen as it moves into the Plains...and will
drive a cold front south in the CWA over the weekend. Models are
not in sync with the timing of the front...so it will be difficult
to determine when...and what kind of precipitation to expect. Dry
weather will return next Monday with near normal temps before
another system is forecast to dig south into the Desert Southwest
next Tuesday.

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12

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243
FXUS64 KMAF 231042
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
442 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...As of 4:15 AM CST Tuesday...have cancelled both the
High Wind Warning for the Guadalupes/Davis Mtns and the Winter
Weather Advisory for the Northern Permian Basin and parts of
Southeast New Mexico.

The cold front has made it almost to Presidio. Showers have
occurred overnight across the CWA north of the Davis Mtns. Due to
temps above freezing...even upstream well into the Texas Panhandle
have cancelled the Winter Weather Advisory. Forecast soundings are
indc sfc temps above freezing. Bottom line is that the Boundary
Layer is too warm...and with most of the dew pts above freezing it
looks like any snow that mixes in will not accumulate. The only
exception is the Davis/Apache and Guadalupe Mtns where H85 temps
will be near if not slightly below freezing. In those places any
snow that does accumulate will be less than an inch and mainly on
grassy surfaces. Have cancelled the High Wind Warning for the
Davis and Guadalupe Mtns since the expected strong winds failed to
materialized per the Mt Locke/Mt Fowlkes/GDP obs. The VAD Wind
profile at MAF are also not indc very strong winds aloft. Winds
might increase...but will stay below High Wind criteria.

Showers will gradually decrease from the north today as the upper
trof moves east. After a cool day today and a cold night tonight
temps will slowly moderate on Wednesday as ridging moves overhead.
Temps will warm to 5-10 degrees above normal with dry weather on
Christmas Day with southwest/downslope winds. Temps will cool a
little on Friday ahead of a upper trof moving out of the Rockies.
This trof is fcst to deepen as it moves into the Plains...and will
drive a cold front south in the CWA over the weekend. Models are
not in sync with the timing of the front...so it will be difficult
to determine when...and what kind of precipitation to expect. Dry
weather will return next Monday with near normal temps before
another system is forecast to dig south into the Desert Southwest
next Tuesday.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 47  27  50  30  /  40   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              49  30  52  31  /  40   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                48  24  52  29  /  20   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  52  31  55  28  /  20   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           49  28  53  37  /  40   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          41  23  45  32  /  30   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   46  24  49  27  /  30   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   42  14  48  17  /  20   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    48  25  50  27  /  40   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  48  28  51  31  /  40   0   0   0
WINK TX                    51  26  55  25  /  40   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/33

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156
FXUS64 KMAF 230535
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1135 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
By late evening, an area of light to moderate rain had moved through the
central Permian Basin, including the MAF terminal. Winds were generally
northeast behind a cold front that pushed through southeast New Mexico
and the Permian basin. This front will continue pushing south across
remaining terminal sites over the next few hours. Behind the front
winds will generally be 10 TO 20 knots with gusts to 25 knots,
though a few higher gusts are possible near showers. As colder air
pushes into the area, rain will become increasingly mixed with
snow and is expected to change over to snow at times across
southeast New Mexico and as far south as the central Permian
basin. VFR conditions will become MVFR as a rule due to lowering
ceilings, though IFR conditions are possible due to lowered
visibility in southeast New Mexico. Snow and rain will end by mid
to late morning across the area along with a return to VFR
conditions as drier air moves into the area.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 930 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2014/

UPDATE...

Update to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for northern and central
Lea County, and Gaines and Dawson counties tonight/Tuesday morning.

DISCUSSION...

Winds have yet to pick up in the Guadalupe or Davis Mountains this
evening, but think they still will later tonight as h7 winds of 40
to 50kt traverse the region at the base of a shortwave trough poised
to move overhead.  Of a little more concern is the potential for
snow moving southeastward across the area later tonight/Tuesday
morning.  The ground is pretty warm from recent above normal
temperatures, but cold air is spilling south through eastern New
Mexico and the Texas Panhandle behind a strong cold front.
A few thunderstorms have developed over southeast New Mexico and the
Permian Basin as lift increases ahead of a shortwave trough
translating southeastward over New Mexico, and in the upper levels
in the LFQ of a 140+kt h25 jet.

Expect precipitation to continue through the night, but as the front
pushes south, and the column cools aloft, precipitation will change
to snow north of Interstate 20.  The phase change will take place
over the northern half of Lea County, then into the northern Permian
Basin from 23/06Z to 23/09Z.  Since surface temperatures behind the
cold front are running a couple of degrees cooler than the latest
models, and the column will cool as precipitation changes to snow,
think we will see 1 to 3 inches of snow accumulate over northern and
central Lea County, and Gaines and Dawson counties late tonight/
Tuesday morning.  The warm ground may limit accumulation on roads,
but grassy and raised surfaces will likely have most of the
accumulation.  Some roads could become slick in the Advisory area
since temperatures may cool to freezing or below.

Expect adjacent counties to the Advisory area to see a rain/snow mix
through late tonight, or maybe just all snow by Tuesday morning.
Think precipitation will begin to decrease in intensity and areal
coverage though, and surface temperatures above freezing/warm ground
will prevent much accumulation.  Any adverse driving conditions in
the Advisory area should improve after 23/15Z as temperatures begin
to warm a little.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until 3 AM MST Tuesday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 7 AM MST Tuesday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Northern Lea County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 4 AM CST /3 AM MST/ Tuesday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM CST Tuesday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Dawson...Gaines.


&&

$$

99

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208
FXUS64 KMAF 230330
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
930 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2014

.UPDATE...

Update to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for northern and central
Lea County, and Gaines and Dawson counties tonight/Tuesday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Winds have yet to pick up in the Guadalupe or Davis Mountains this
evening, but think they still will later tonight as h7 winds of 40
to 50kt traverse the region at the base of a shortwave trough poised
to move overhead.  Of a little more concern is the potential for
snow moving southeastward across the area later tonight/Tuesday
morning.  The ground is pretty warm from recent above normal
temperatures, but cold air is spilling south through eastern New
Mexico and the Texas Panhandle behind a strong cold front.
A few thunderstorms have developed over southeast New Mexico and the
Permian Basin as lift increases ahead of a shortwave trough
translating southeastward over New Mexico, and in the upper levels
in the LFQ of a 140+kt h25 jet.

Expect precipitation to continue through the night, but as the front
pushes south, and the column cools aloft, precipitation will change
to snow north of Interstate 20.  The phase change will take place
over the northern half of Lea County, then into the northern Permian
Basin from 23/06Z to 23/09Z.  Since surface temperatures behind the
cold front are running a couple of degrees cooler than the latest
models, and the column will cool as precipitation changes to snow,
think we will see 1 to 3 inches of snow accumulate over northern and
central Lea County, and Gaines and Dawson counties late tonight/
Tuesday morning.  The warm ground may limit accumulation on roads,
but grassy and raised surfaces will likely have most of the
accumulation.  Some roads could become slick in the Advisory area
since temperatures may cool to freezing or below.

Expect adjacent counties to the Advisory area to see a rain/snow mix
through late tonight, or maybe just all snow by Tuesday morning.
Think precipitation will begin to decrease in intensity and areal
coverage though, and surface temperatures above freezing/warm ground
will prevent much accumulation.  Any adverse driving conditions in
the Advisory area should improve after 23/15Z as temperatures begin
to warm a little.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 33  43  28  50  /  80  40   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              35  45  30  52  /  80  40   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                37  47  25  52  /  50  20   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  46  52  32  55  /  10  20   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           37  44  28  53  /  30  40   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          31  42  24  45  /  20  20   0   0
HOBBS NM                   32  45  25  49  / 100  30   0   0
MARFA TX                   34  41  15  48  /  10  20   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    35  46  26  50  /  60  40   0   0
ODESSA TX                  35  48  28  51  /  60  40   0   0
WINK TX                    38  48  27  55  /  50  40   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until 3 AM MST Tuesday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 7 AM MST Tuesday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Northern Lea County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 4 AM CST /3 AM MST/ Tuesday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM CST Tuesday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Dawson...Gaines.


&&

$$

05/67

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109
FXUS64 KMAF 230108
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
708 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2014

.UPDATE...

Update to issue a High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains,
and elevations above 6000 feet in the Davis Mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A fairly potent shortwave trough is translating south/southeastward
through New Mexico early this evening.  Although the surface
pressure gradient over the area is not very tight as of 23/00Z,
southwest winds of 35 to 45 mph sustained have already occurred in
the lower elevations of the Guadalupe Mountains.  The surface
pressure gradient does not tighten much over the next several hours,
but think much stronger mid level winds associated with the
mentioned shortwave trough will serve to increase winds throughout
the Guadalupe Mountains through 23/06Z.

These stronger mid level winds will also impinge upon the Davis
Mountains this evening, so expect winds to increase in the higher
elevations there.  Have decided to issue a High Wind Warning for all
of the Guadalupe Mountains, and the Davis Mountains above 6000
feet.  The warning will be in effect until 23/10Z, which will allow
shift later tonight to decide whether the warning should be extended
or not.

Also of concern is precipitation tonight and Tuesday morning, not to
mention precipitation phase.  Local radars showed an area of
precipitation moving southeastward through New Mexico along and
behind the above mentioned cold front, with a few lightning strikes
indicated over, and near, northern Lea County.  Surface temperatures
were not that cold behind the front, but we should see readings
dropping into the mid 30s by 23/06Z in Lea County in particular.
Radar returns are probably extensive due to low level convergence
along/behind the front, coupled with lift in the mid levels seen on
Water Vapor imagery ahead of a compact shortwave trough over central
New Mexico, and the LFQ of a 140+kt h25 jet.  Expect this deep layer
lift to continue, but shift southeastward over the forecast area
overnight.  Model soundings, particularly the RUC13 and NAM12, are
indicating rain changing to snow around 23/06Z, with some snow
possibly accumulating over portions of Lea County and the
northwestern Permian Basin.  For now, will send an update for the
High Wind Warning, but will address precipitation in another update
later this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 35  43  28  50  /  60  40   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              39  45  30  52  /  50  40   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                39  47  25  52  /  10  20   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  46  52  32  55  /  10  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           37  44  28  53  /  10  40   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          31  42  24  45  /  10  20   0   0
HOBBS NM                   35  45  25  49  /  60  30   0   0
MARFA TX                   34  41  15  48  /  10  20   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    35  46  26  50  /  30  40   0   0
ODESSA TX                  36  48  28  51  /  30  40   0   0
WINK TX                    41  48  27  55  /  20  40   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until 3 AM MST Tuesday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 4 AM CST /3 AM MST/ Tuesday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Guadalupe
     Mountains.


&&

$$

05/67

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350
FXUS64 KMAF 230017
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
617 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
By late afternoon, a cold front had pushed southwest through HOB,
MAF and nearing INK swinging the winds to easterly generally at
less than 12 knots. This initial front will make slow progress
southwestward through the evening. A stronger push of cold
air will bring somewhat stronger north to northwest winds
generally 15 to 20 knots with gusts 25 to 30 knots to area
terminals beginning with HOB and CNM around midnight and through
remaining terminals by 09Z. Windy conditions will continue through
Tuesday afternoon.

A broad area of precipitation will move into southeast New Mexico
between 06Z and 09Z. This area of precipitation will shift
southeast through the night affecting all area terminals. The
precipitation will start as rain or a rain and snow mix though
snow will predominate toward 12Z over southeast New Mexico into
parts of the Permian Basin area, including MAF. Along with the
precipitation, periods of MVFR are expected due to low ceilings
and fog. IFR conditions will be possible between 12 and 15Z at HOB
due to a combination of moderate snow and fog.

Conditions will improve from northwest to southeast beginning mid
morning as precipitation ends and drier air pushes into the area.
VFR conditions are expected by 19Z across southeast New Mexico and
southwest Texas.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Current TTU Mesonet observations are indicating that winds have
shifted to the north across the South Plains and northern portions
of the Permian Basin.  This is really just the beginning of a
significant weather change that will occur later tonight into
Tuesday morning as a cold front moves into southeast New Mexico and
southwest Texas.

Unlike models runs from just a few days ago that indicated a dry
frontal passage, these last few models runs have consistently
pointed to a wet solution, especially over Lea County New Mexico and
the northern Permian Basin Tuesday morning.  A chance of rain is
also forecast over the rest of the county warning forecast area into
Tuesday afternoon.

Similar to the previous forecast, assessment of 12Z model sounding
data through BUFKIT indicated the potential for what I would call a
glancing blow of winter weather over the northern and central
portions of Lea County and over the northwest Texas Permian Basin.
Precipitation will likely start as rain overnight, then transition
to a wintry mix of rain and snow across the northern half of Lea
County and for northwest portions of Texas Permian Basin including
Gaines and Dawson County.  Overnight temperatures look a hint too
warm to collect on roadways and at least right now, the greatest
potential for snow appears to be in a very small window of time,
perhaps from 6 am to 10 am Tuesday morning.  Thereafter, model
soundings suggest both drying and some warming.  As the day
progresses, areas further south will have a chance for some rain.

Overall, the impacts from this event should be minor.  Keep in mind
that if temperatures are just a few degrees cooler tomorrow morning
than expected, impacts on early morning travel could end up being
more significant.  There is at least some concern that a wintry
precipitation mix tomorrow morning could present travel issues with
slick conditions early on.  However, no snow or ice accumulations
are expected, except perhaps on grassy areas.

As quickly as this upper trough arrives, we should see it exit on
Wednesday.  A warming trend should take us through Christmas with
our next chance for precipitation after tomorrow being next Saturday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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05
691
FXUS64 KMAF 222050
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
250 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Current TTU Mesonet observations are indicating that winds have
shifted to the north across the South Plains and northern portions
of the Permian Basin.  This is really just the beginning of a
significant weather change that will occur later tonight into
Tuesday morning as a cold front moves into southeast New Mexico and
southwest Texas.

Unlike models runs from just a few days ago that indicated a dry
frontal passage, these last few models runs have consistently
pointed to a wet solution, especially over Lea County New Mexico and
the northern Permian Basin Tuesday morning.  A chance of rain is
also forecast over the rest of the county warning forecast area into
Tuesday afternoon.

Similar to the previous forecast, assessment of 12Z model sounding
data through BUFKIT indicated the potential for what I would call a
glancing blow of winter weather over the northern and central
portions of Lea County and over the northwest Texas Permian Basin.
Precipitation will likely start as rain overnight, then transition
to a wintry mix of rain and snow across the northern half of Lea
County and for northwest portions of Texas Permian Basin including
Gaines and Dawson County.  Overnight temperatures look a hint too
warm to collect on roadways and at least right now, the greatest
potential for snow appears to be in a very small window of time,
perhaps from 6 am to 10 am Tuesday morning.  Thereafter, model
soundings suggest both drying and some warming.  As the day
progresses, areas further south will have a chance for some rain.

Overall, the impacts from this event should be minor.  Keep in mind
that if temperatures are just a few degrees cooler tomorrow morning
than expected, impacts on early morning travel could end up being
more significant.  There is at least some concern that a wintry
precipitation mix tomorrow morning could present travel issues with
slick conditions early on.  However, no snow or ice accumulations
are expected, except perhaps on grassy areas.

As quickly as this upper trough arrives, we should see it exit on
Wednesday.  A warming trend should take us through Christmas with
our next chance for precipitation after tomorrow being next Saturday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 35  43  28  50  /  60  40   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              39  45  30  52  /  50  40   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                39  47  25  52  /  10  20   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  46  52  32  55  /  10  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           37  44  28  53  /  10  40   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          31  42  24  45  /  10  20   0   0
HOBBS NM                   35  45  25  49  /  60  30   0   0
MARFA TX                   34  41  15  48  /  10  20   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    35  46  26  50  /  30  40   0   0
ODESSA TX                  36  48  28  51  /  30  40   0   0
WINK TX                    41  48  27  55  /  20  40   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/03

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773
FXUS64 KMAF 221804
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1204 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions with gusty west winds will prevail through this
evening, prior to a cold front which should reach KCNM and KHOB by
07Z, and KFST by 12Z Tuesday. Winds will shift to the north
behind the front, remaining strong and gusting to 25-35KT through
the forecast period. Along and behind the cold front, showers are
also expected, thus have added prevailing -SHRA to the going TAFs
for KHOB, KMAF, KINK, and KPEQ where confidence is greatest.
Forecast temperature profiles for KHOB lend credence to the idea
that snow will mix in with the rain, and thus, have covered this
with a TEMPO from 11-15Z for now. While a -RASN mix cannot be
ruled out for KMAF, KINK, and KPEQ, confidence precludes mention
in the TAF at this time.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84

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207
FXUS64 KMAF 221142
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
537 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds will be gusty and elevated out of the west and will gradually
shift to the northwest this afternoon.  Winds will decrease in
intensity around 00z before a cold front begins to push into the
area by 12z with more gusty winds.  There is a chance of light rain
and snow after 06z with HOB having the best chances of
precipitation.  Ceilings will start decreasing around 12z or just
before.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...As of 4:00 AM CST Monday...A taste of winter will be
coming to West Texas and Southeast New Mexico tonight.

Water vapor imagery and GOES High Density winds are showing a
shortwave and associated jet max diving southeast through the
Bitterroot/Blue Mtns of Eastern WA and Idaho. This feature will
move rapidly southeast and deepen the trof in the central US.
After another dry day with above normal temps a cold front
associated with the trof will move south into the Southern Plains
tonight. The NAM and especially the ECMWF continue to be wetter
and colder with this system. Rain showers will develop this
evening...mainly north and east of the Pecos River and spread
south overnight. Model fcst soundings indc the precip changing to
snow showers in northern Lea County after midnight...with a mix of
rain/snow showers in the Northwest Permian Basin down to a
Hobbs/Carlsbad line. With the ground warm would not expect any
snow accumulation on roadways...but there could be a dusting on
grassy surfaces and overpasses in Northern Lea County. The threat
of showers continues on Tuesday...mainly in the morning. Showers
could make as far south as the Davis Mtns but the Rio Grande
Valley and most of Big Bend will remain dry. Forecast soundings
indc it could be cold enough Tue morning for a mix of rain/snow
showers down to a Midland/Wink line. It should be cold enough for
snow showers in the higher elevations of the Davis Mtns.

The cold airmass sticks around Tuesday night/Wednesday with lows
mainly in the 20s and aftn highs in the 50s. Dry weather with
above normal temps are expected on Christmas Day as ridging moves
over the Plains. The next shortwave moves from Northern CA into
the Rockies on Friday. Temps on Friday will be tricky and could be
warmer than the current forecast. Another cold front dives south
into the CWA Sat bringing colder temps. The ECMWF is much stronger
than the GFS keeping Sat highs in the 40s to mid 50s with the
threat of showers. For now...have made little change to the
extended keeping the weekend dry with near normal temps. Zonal
flow will keep the CWA dry with mild temps next Sunday and Monday.

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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106
FXUS64 KMAF 221018
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
418 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...As of 4:00 AM CST Monday...A taste of winter will be
coming to West Texas and Southeast New Mexico tonight.

Water vapor imagery and GOES High Density winds are showing a
shortwave and associated jet max diving southeast through the
Bitterroot/Blue Mtns of Eastern WA and Idaho. This feature will
move rapidly southeast and deepen the trof in the central US.
After another dry day with above normal temps a cold front
associated with the trof will move south into the Southern Plains
tonight. The NAM and especially the ECMWF continue to be wetter
and colder with this system. Rain showers will develop this
evening...mainly north and east of the Pecos River and spread
south overnight. Model fcst soundings indc the precip changing to
snow showers in northern Lea County after midnight...with a mix of
rain/snow showers in the Northwest Permian Basin down to a
Hobbs/Carlsbad line. With the ground warm would not expect any
snow accumulation on roadways...but there could be a dusting on
grassy surfaces and overpasses in Northern Lea County. The threat
of showers continues on Tuesday...mainly in the morning. Showers
could make as far south as the Davis Mtns but the Rio Grande
Valley and most of Big Bend will remain dry. Forecast soundings
indc it could be cold enough Tue morning for a mix of rain/snow
showers down to a Midland/Wink line. It should be cold enough for
snow showers in the higher elevations of the Davis Mtns.

The cold airmass sticks around Tuesday night/Wednesday with lows
mainly in the 20s and aftn highs in the 50s. Dry weather with
above normal temps are expected on Christmas Day as ridging moves
over the Plains. The next shortwave moves from Northern CA into
the Rockies on Friday. Temps on Friday will be tricky and could be
warmer than the current forecast. Another cold front dives south
into the CWA Sat bringing colder temps. The ECMWF is much stronger
than the GFS keeping Sat highs in the 40s to mid 50s with the
threat of showers. For now...have made little change to the
extended keeping the weekend dry with near normal temps. Zonal
flow will keep the CWA dry with mild temps next Sunday and Monday.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 66  34  45  27  /   0  60  40   0
BIG SPRING TX              67  38  46  29  /   0  50  40   0
CARLSBAD NM                69  36  45  24  /   0  30  20   0
DRYDEN TX                  72  41  50  31  /   0  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           73  39  45  29  /   0  20  40   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          61  32  39  26  /   0  10  20   0
HOBBS NM                   65  31  44  24  /   0  60  30   0
MARFA TX                   66  36  41  14  /   0  10  20   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    69  34  46  25  /   0  50  40   0
ODESSA TX                  69  35  46  28  /   0  40  40   0
WINK TX                    72  37  47  26  /   0  40  40   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.


&&

$$

80/33

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004
FXUS64 KMAF 220448
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1048 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 22/06Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A breezy VFR night across all terminals this evening. Westerly
winds at the surface will forbid a return to MVFR or less
cigs/vsbys, and all we`re expecting tonight is sct-bkn cirrus.
Winds will increase a bit in the mid morning hours as a pre-
frontal trough passes through. After sunset, winds will slack off
a bit. Will keep them southwesterly for now, but should veer
gradually to a northerly direction after this TAF period. Look for
deteriorating wx conditions after 06Z tomorrow night as a upper
level storm system approaches the southern High Plains.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 843 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2014/

UPDATE...

Update to issue a High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains
tonight.

DISCUSSION...

Northwest flow aloft will continue to increase over the region
tonight and Monday as an ua trough deepens over the central U.S.
Plains.  Although the H7 wind direction, northwesterly, is not
favorable for strong winds in Guadalupe Pass, these mid level winds
appear strong enough for high winds to occur in the higher
elevations of the Guadalupe Mountains.  In addition, the surface
pressure gradient has increased across the Guadalupe Mountains and
has yielded high winds through Guadalupe Pass for the last couple of
hours.  Since the above is expected to continue through the night,
will issue a High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains tonight.
The warning will be in effect until 4 am CST, which will allow
the next shift to assess whether the warning will need to continue
through Monday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until 3 AM MST Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 3 AM MST Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

70

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334
FXUS64 KMAF 220243
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
843 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2014

.UPDATE...

Update to issue a High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains
tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Northwest flow aloft will continue to increase over the region
tonight and Monday as an ua trough deepens over the central U.S.
Plains.  Although the H7 wind direction, northwesterly, is not
favorable for strong winds in Guadalupe Pass, these mid level winds
appear strong enough for high winds to occur in the higher
elevations of the Guadalupe Mountains.  In addition, the surface
pressure gradient has increased across the Guadalupe Mountains and
has yielded high winds through Guadalupe Pass for the last couple of
hours.  Since the above is expected to continue through the night,
will issue a High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains tonight.
The warning will be in effect until 4 am CST, which will allow
the next shift to assess whether the warning will need to continue
through Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 45  68  34  46  /   0   0  40  20
BIG SPRING TX              45  67  37  47  /   0   0  40  10
CARLSBAD NM                45  70  36  46  /   0   0  30  20
DRYDEN TX                  45  76  47  51  /   0   0  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           48  73  42  46  /   0   0  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          42  62  36  40  /   0   0  10  20
HOBBS NM                   43  66  31  45  /   0   0  50  20
MARFA TX                   38  65  38  42  /   0   0  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    44  69  35  47  /   0   0  30  20
ODESSA TX                  45  69  36  47  /   0   0  30  20
WINK TX                    44  72  37  48  /   0   0  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until 3 AM MST Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 3 AM MST Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$


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228
FXUS64 KMAF 212351
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
551 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 22/00Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Moderately strong and gusty gradient winds should subside within
the next few hours. Unlike the past few nights we`ve westerly flow
at the surface and aloft, which will keep fog and low ceilings at
bay. Instead all terminals can expect sct-bkn high clouds
overnight. Winds will increase and veer to the northwest during
the morning hours Monday as a pre-frontal trough moves south
across west Texas and southeastern New Mexico. Significant
aviation weather will hold off until just after this forecast
period.


&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70

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369
FXUS64 KMAF 212054
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
254 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
We have seen the last of the fog and low clouds as westerly winds
will keep low level moisture east of the area. Strong west winds
can be expected in the Guadalupe Mountains today but should remain
just below high wind criteria so will not issue a warning at this
time. An upper low will develop over the Central Plains, and a jet
max diving down the Rockies will send a cold front into the area
late Monday into early Tuesday. The jet max will weaken over time,
but early Tuesday it will be strong enough to create enough lift
for precipitation to develop mainly over southeastern New Mexico
and the northern Permian Basin. Temperatures support the
possibility for snow or rain mixed with snow especially over Lea
and Gaines counties Tuesday morning though little if any
accumulations are expected. Highs Tuesday afternoon could be
tricky depending on afternoon cloud cover, right now expecting
clouds to scatter in the afternoon allowing for some heating to
occur.

A weakening upper ridge moves across Texas mid-week allowing for
some warming before another trough moves into the Northern Plains
on Friday. This will send another cold front south into the CWA
Friday bringing more cool air for next weekend. The strongest lift
with this trough will remain well north of the area so precip is
expected with this frontal passage.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 45  68  34  46  /   0   0  40  20
BIG SPRING TX              45  67  37  47  /   0   0  40  10
CARLSBAD NM                45  70  36  46  /   0   0  30  20
DRYDEN TX                  45  76  47  51  /   0   0  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           48  73  42  46  /   0   0  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          42  62  36  40  /   0   0  10  20
HOBBS NM                   43  66  31  45  /   0   0  50  20
MARFA TX                   38  65  38  42  /   0   0  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    44  69  35  47  /   0   0  30  20
ODESSA TX                  45  69  36  47  /   0   0  30  20
WINK TX                    44  72  37  48  /   0   0  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

03/10

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968
FXUS64 KMAF 211733
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1133 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Please see the 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Surface lee trough development east of the Rockies will result in
southwest to west surface winds at TAF locations. Low clouds and fog
have dissipated making way for VFR conditions. Redevelopment of
fog is not expected later tonight. Increasing high level clouds are expected
across the area Monday morning. However, no aviation impacts are
expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Areas of low ceilings and fog are expected to continue through
mid-morning.  MAF will likely be the last site to improve in
visibility and ceiling.  Winds will be out of the southwest to west
and will be elevated with some gusts this afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...As of 4:15 AM CST Sunday...Satl imagery/Sfc obs are
indc low clouds and fog mainly north and east of the Pecos River
and in eastern Pecos/Brewster Counties as well as Terrell County.
There are a few places with dense fog...Hobbs and Wink...but for
the most part fog is patchy. With high clouds beginning to stream
overhead do not think there will be enough dense fog for an
Advisory this morning. Will continue to monitor in case there is a
"sunrise surprise".

A mixed bag of weather is in store for the CWA this week. A
mid/upper trof is north of the CWA and continues to progress east.
Zonal flow will bring warmer temps (5-10 degrees above normal)
today and Monday.

A strong shortwave will dive south down the lee side of the Rockies
Monday night as the mid/upper flow across the country amplifies.
This will drive a cold front south through the CWA. Models are
indc good lift Monday night and have been progressively wetter.
Therefore have bumped up the pops for Monday night a little...but
the duration of the precip should be short. Some locations in the
Trans Pecos and south might not see any precip. With the brunt of
the cold air remaining to the north have kept the precip as
rain...but there could be a little snow mixing in late Monday
night across the northern Permian Basin. As of this time little or
no snow accumulation is expected. Looks like it will be windy late
Monday night thru Guadalupe Pass as the winds turn northeast...but
at this time it looks like the winds will remain below warning
criteria. Other than a few morning showers in the Davis Mountains
dry weather will return Tuesday with cooler temps.

Dry weather is expected the remainder of the week and into next
weekend. Northwest flow aloft will bring a little warming on
Wednesday. Thursday will be even warmer (5-10 degrees above
normal) with zonal flow aloft and downslope southwest winds in the
lower levels. A shortwave will pass north of the CWA on Friday...
driving a dry cold front south through the CWA. This will bring
below normal temps Friday and Saturday.

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

03

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781
FXUS64 KMAF 211132
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
528 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Areas of low ceilings and fog are expected to continue through
mid-morning.  MAF will likely be the last site to improve in
visibility and ceiling.  Winds will be out of the southwest to west
and will be elevated with some gusts this afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...As of 4:15 AM CST Sunday...Satl imagery/Sfc obs are
indc low clouds and fog mainly north and east of the Pecos River
and in eastern Pecos/Brewster Counties as well as Terrell County.
There are a few places with dense fog...Hobbs and Wink...but for
the most part fog is patchy. With high clouds beginning to stream
overhead do not think there will be enough dense fog for an
Advisory this morning. Will continue to monitor in case there is a
"sunrise surprise".

A mixed bag of weather is in store for the CWA this week. A
mid/upper trof is north of the CWA and continues to progress east.
Zonal flow will bring warmer temps (5-10 degrees above normal)
today and Monday.

A strong shortwave will dive south down the lee side of the Rockies
Monday night as the mid/upper flow across the country amplifies.
This will drive a cold front south through the CWA. Models are
indc good lift Monday night and have been progressively wetter.
Therefore have bumped up the pops for Monday night a little...but
the duration of the precip should be short. Some locations in the
Trans Pecos and south might not see any precip. With the brunt of
the cold air remaining to the north have kept the precip as
rain...but there could be a little snow mixing in late Monday
night across the northern Permian Basin. As of this time little or
no snow accumulation is expected. Looks like it will be windy late
Monday night thru Guadalupe Pass as the winds turn northeast...but
at this time it looks like the winds will remain below warning
criteria. Other than a few morning showers in the Davis Mountains
dry weather will return Tuesday with cooler temps.

Dry weather is expected the remainder of the week and into next
weekend. Northwest flow aloft will bring a little warming on
Wednesday. Thursday will be even warmer (5-10 degrees above
normal) with zonal flow aloft and downslope southwest winds in the
lower levels. A shortwave will pass north of the CWA on Friday...
driving a dry cold front south through the CWA. This will bring
below normal temps Friday and Saturday.

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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923
FXUS64 KMAF 211049
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
449 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...As of 4:15 AM CST Sunday...Satl imagery/Sfc obs are
indc low clouds and fog mainly north and east of the Pecos River
and in eastern Pecos/Brewster Counties as well as Terrell County.
There are a few places with dense fog...Hobbs and Wink...but for
the most part fog is patchy. With high clouds beginning to stream
overhead do not think there will be enough dense fog for an
Advisory this morning. Will continue to monitor in case there is a
"sunrise surprise".

A mixed bag of weather is in store for the CWA this week. A
mid/upper trof is north of the CWA and continues to progress east.
Zonal flow will bring warmer temps (5-10 degrees above normal)
today and Monday.

A strong shortwave will dive south down the lee side of the Rockies
Monday night as the mid/upper flow across the country amplifies.
This will drive a cold front south through the CWA. Models are
indc good lift Monday night and have been progressively wetter.
Therefore have bumped up the pops for Monday night a little...but
the duration of the precip should be short. Some locations in the
Trans Pecos and south might not see any precip. With the brunt of
the cold air remaining to the north have kept the precip as
rain...but there could be a little snow mixing in late Monday
night across the northern Permian Basin. As of this time little or
no snow accumulation is expected. Looks like it will be windy late
Monday night thru Guadalupe Pass as the winds turn northeast...but
at this time it looks like the winds will remain below warning
criteria. Other than a few morning showers in the Davis Mountains
dry weather will return Tuesday with cooler temps.

Dry weather is expected the remainder of the week and into next
weekend. Northwest flow aloft will bring a little warming on
Wednesday. Thursday will be even warmer (5-10 degrees above
normal) with zonal flow aloft and downslope southwest winds in the
lower levels. A shortwave will pass north of the CWA on Friday...
driving a dry cold front south through the CWA. This will bring
below normal temps Friday and Saturday.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 65  42  68  34  /   0   0   0  40
BIG SPRING TX              66  42  71  36  /   0   0   0  40
CARLSBAD NM                66  43  68  37  /   0   0   0  20
DRYDEN TX                  68  43  73  44  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           70  45  72  38  /   0   0   0  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          56  39  60  32  /   0   0   0  20
HOBBS NM                   62  39  67  30  /   0   0   0  40
MARFA TX                   62  32  64  33  /   0   0   0  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    65  42  71  36  /   0   0   0  40
ODESSA TX                  65  43  68  36  /   0   0   0  40
WINK TX                    67  38  73  37  /   0   0   0  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

80/33

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603
FXUS64 KMAF 210405
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1005 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

The primary forecast challenge this period is that of low ceilings
and fog expected to impact KMAF, KINK, KPEQ, and KHOB. An area of
stratus is currently advecting NNW through the Pecos River Valley,
thus, expect KMAF to drop to MVFR conditions by the start of the
forecast period. KINK, KHOB, and KPEQ should follow between
08-10Z. There is a window from 10-14Z when IFR ceilings are
possible at KMAF and KINK, though KPEQ and KHOB look to remain low-
end MVFR. An improvement to VFR conditions at all TAF sites is
expected by mid-morning Sunday, as winds shift to the west and
increase, becoming gusty through the afternoon.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84

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107
FXUS64 KMAF 202352
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
552 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

The main forecast challenge this period will be another round of
low clouds/fog expected to develop across the area overnight,
affecting KMAF by 06Z, and KHOB, KINK, and KPEQ by 10Z. Once
again, IFR/LIFR conditions are possible, mainly between 10-14Z.
Models indicate a sharp gradient on the edge of the low clouds
tonight/early Sunday, with KFST and KCNM expected to remain VFR
for the duration. Conditions should improve to VFR for all TAF
sites by mid-morning on Sunday as winds increase from the west,
becoming gusty by early afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Fog has dissipated and low clouds have retreated east of Midland,
but expect a return once again tonight. Fog could become dense to
less than a mile visibility and have put dense fog in the
forecast, but confidence is not high enough to issue an advisory
at this time. Later shifts can monitor this and issue if deemed
necessary.

The upper pattern becomes more amplified by Tuesday as an upper
level low develops over the northern plains. This will send a cold
front into the CWA Tuesday morning and drop high temperatures
about 20 degrees. Models are showing a brief shot of lift and
moisture around sunrise Tuesday morning which could give a chance
for precipitation mainly in southeastern New Mexico and the
northern Permian Basin. The lift coincides with mid level
temperatures of -10C to -15C which is very good for dendritic
growth, so there may be a chance for rain to mix or change over to
snow in areas where the surface temperatures are cold
enough...most likely in Lea, Gaines, Andrews, and Dawson counties.
The lift will be brief and moisture not very deep so significant
accumulations are not expected though a dusting is possible.

Weak ridging follows Wednesday and Thursday but another upper
troughs drops into the Central Plains Friday bringing another cold
front and a return of colder temperatures. This trough will be
weaker than the first so no precipitation is expected with this
frontal passage.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84

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066
FXUS64 KMAF 202036
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
236 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Fog has dissipated and low clouds have retreated east of Midland,
but expect a return once again tonight. Fog could become dense to
less than a mile visibility and have put dense fog in the
forecast, but confidence is not high enough to issue an advisory
at this time. Later shifts can monitor this and issue if deemed
necessary.

The upper pattern becomes more amplified by Tuesday as an upper
level low develops over the northern plains. This will send a cold
front into the CWA Tuesday morning and drop high temperatures
about 20 degrees. Models are showing a brief shot of lift and
moisture around sunrise Tuesday morning which could give a chance
for precipitation mainly in southeastern New Mexico and the
northern Permian Basin. The lift coincides with mid level
temperatures of -10C to -15C which is very good for dendritic
growth, so there may be a chance for rain to mix or change over to
snow in areas where the surface temperatures are cold
enough...most likely in Lea, Gaines, Andrews, and Dawson counties.
The lift will be brief and moisture not very deep so significant
accumulations are not expected though a dusting is possible.

Weak ridging follows Wednesday and Thursday but another upper
troughs drops into the Central Plains Friday bringing another cold
front and a return of colder temperatures. This trough will be
weaker than the first so no precipitation is expected with this
frontal passage.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 37  65  40  70  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              41  65  41  71  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                33  66  39  70  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  43  68  42  74  /  10   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           38  69  44  74  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          33  57  38  61  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   32  64  39  68  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   28  61  34  65  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    38  65  40  71  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  39  65  40  70  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    34  67  38  73  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/10

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060
FXUS64 KMAF 201736
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1136 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR conditions at KCNM, KHOB, and KMAF should become VFR by 19z
this afternoon. VFR conditions with clear skies are expected at
most Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals this afternoon
through much of tonight. The exception will be KMAF where IFR
conditions in fog and low clouds will redevelop by 06z tonight.
Elswhere TEMPO IFR conditons are expected to redevelop late
tonight at KHOB KINK, and KPEQ in dense fog and low clouds.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2014/

UPDATE...
See public discussion below.

DISCUSSION...
will update the public products to expire the dense fog advisory
this morning for the Permian Basin and the southeast New Mexico
plains. Also lowered temperatures a couple of degrees this afternoon
areawide and tweaked sky cover based on latest trends and incoming
data.

Updated products to be sent shortly.

12

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Areas of low ceilings and fog will continue through the morning
hours.  HOB and MAF will be the last to improve with low ceilings
and visibilities possibly past 18z.  There is some uncertainty
whether or not the fog and low ceilings will reach CNM, INK, PEQ,
and FST.  Low ceilings and visibilities are again possible after 00z
with MAF and INK being the most likely terminals to experience these
conditions. Winds will remain light through the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A chilly surface ridge jutting southwestward into the region is
contributing to low cloud and fog development over eastern portions
of the forecast area this morning.  This as surface temperatures
cool to near current dewpoints, especially along and west of the
western fringe of a low cloud deck.  Hobbs, Andrews and Midland
have been reporting 1/4 statute miles in fog for a couple of hours,
with satellite imagery indicating other locations devoid of
observational data likely experiencing patchy dense fog.  Since low
clouds are not aggressively developing westward, and saturation of
the lower levels of the atmosphere will continue, will issue a Dense
Fog Advisory from Eddy and Lea Counties, southeastward across the
central Permian Basin until 20/17Z.  Some counties which will be
included in the advisory may see only patchy, or transient dense
fog.  Think it is more prudent to include these counties than have
to expand the advisory later.

Broad upper troughiness will prevail over the region today into
Sunday as a couple of innocuous shortwave troughs pass over, or
north of, the forecast area.  There will be little chance of rain
under this regime while temperatures gradually rise to around 15
degrees above normal Monday afternoon.  A more significant ua trough
digging south through the central/southern Rockies Monday will
contribute to this warming as westerly, downslope surface winds
increase over the area Sunday, and even moreso Monday.  High winds
will be possible in the the Guadalupe Mountains Monday as the ua
trough approaches, and Monday night as the ua trough moves over the
region.  For now, will mention in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

A cold front will crash south through the region Monday night and
Tuesday which will knock temperatures near to slightly below normal.
The resident time of the attendant surface ridge over the region
will be fairly short-lived as northwest flow aloft over the area
Wednesday becomes westerly on Christmas Day and will likely result
in high temperatures in the 60s and 70s for everyone.  The mild
temperatures will come crashing down again the day after Christmas,
or on Saturday if some of the slower models pan out.  One thing
seems fairly certain, there will not be much chance of precipitation
throughout the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 54  37  64  41  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              52  41  65  43  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                57  32  66  39  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  57  43  67  46  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           60  40  69  46  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          47  35  56  40  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   54  32  63  36  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   55  24  62  30  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    56  38  65  40  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  55  39  64  42  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    60  33  69  37  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

80/67

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558
FXUS64 KMAF 201715 AAA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1115 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

.UPDATE...
See public discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
will update the public products to expire the dense fog advisory
this morning for the Permian Basin and the southeast New Mexico
plains. Also lowered temperatures a couple of degrees this afternoon
areawide and tweaked sky cover based on latest trends and incoming
data.


Updated products to be sent shortly.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Areas of low ceilings and fog will continue through the morning
hours.  HOB and MAF will be the last to improve with low ceilings
and visibilities possibly past 18z.  There is some uncertainty
whether or not the fog and low ceilings will reach CNM, INK, PEQ,
and FST.  Low ceilings and visibilities are again possible after 00z
with MAF and INK being the most likely terminals to experience these
conditions. Winds will remain light through the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A chilly surface ridge jutting southwestward into the region is
contributing to low cloud and fog development over eastern portions
of the forecast area this morning.  This as surface temperatures
cool to near current dewpoints, especially along and west of the
western fringe of a low cloud deck.  Hobbs, Andrews and Midland
have been reporting 1/4 statute miles in fog for a couple of hours,
with satellite imagery indicating other locations devoid of
observational data likely experiencing patchy dense fog.  Since low
clouds are not aggressively developing westward, and saturation of
the lower levels of the atmosphere will continue, will issue a Dense
Fog Advisory from Eddy and Lea Counties, southeastward across the
central Permian Basin until 20/17Z.  Some counties which will be
included in the advisory may see only patchy, or transient dense
fog.  Think it is more prudent to include these counties than have
to expand the advisory later.

Broad upper troughiness will prevail over the region today into
Sunday as a couple of innocuous shortwave troughs pass over, or
north of, the forecast area.  There will be little chance of rain
under this regime while temperatures gradually rise to around 15
degrees above normal Monday afternoon.  A more significant ua trough
digging south through the central/southern Rockies Monday will
contribute to this warming as westerly, downslope surface winds
increase over the area Sunday, and even moreso Monday.  High winds
will be possible in the the Guadalupe Mountains Monday as the ua
trough approaches, and Monday night as the ua trough moves over the
region.  For now, will mention in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

A cold front will crash south through the region Monday night and
Tuesday which will knock temperatures near to slightly below normal.
The resident time of the attendant surface ridge over the region
will be fairly short-lived as northwest flow aloft over the area
Wednesday becomes westerly on Christmas Day and will likely result
in high temperatures in the 60s and 70s for everyone.  The mild
temperatures will come crashing down again the day after Christmas,
or on Saturday if some of the slower models pan out.  One thing
seems fairly certain, there will not be much chance of precipitation
throughout the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 54  37  64  41  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              52  41  65  43  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                57  32  66  39  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  57  43  67  46  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           60  40  69  46  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          47  35  56  40  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   54  32  63  36  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   55  24  62  30  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    56  38  65  40  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  55  39  64  42  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    60  33  69  37  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

80/67

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384
FXUS64 KMAF 201105
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
455 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Areas of low ceilings and fog will continue through the morning
hours.  HOB and MAF will be the last to improve with low ceilings
and visibilities possibly past 18z.  There is some uncertainty
whether or not the fog and low ceilings will reach CNM, INK, PEQ,
and FST.  Low ceilings and visibilities are again possible after 00z
with MAF and INK being the most likely terminals to experience these
conditions. Winds will remain light through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A chilly surface ridge jutting southwestward into the region is
contributing to low cloud and fog development over eastern portions
of the forecast area this morning.  This as surface temperatures
cool to near current dewpoints, especially along and west of the
western fringe of a low cloud deck.  Hobbs, Andrews and Midland
have been reporting 1/4 statute miles in fog for a couple of hours,
with satellite imagery indicating other locations devoid of
observational data likely experiencing patchy dense fog.  Since low
clouds are not aggressively developing westward, and saturation of
the lower levels of the atmosphere will continue, will issue a Dense
Fog Advisory from Eddy and Lea Counties, southeastward across the
central Permian Basin until 20/17Z.  Some counties which will be
included in the advisory may see only patchy, or transient dense
fog.  Think it is more prudent to include these counties than have
to expand the advisory later.

Broad upper troughiness will prevail over the region today into
Sunday as a couple of innocuous shortwave troughs pass over, or
north of, the forecast area.  There will be little chance of rain
under this regime while temperatures gradually rise to around 15
degrees above normal Monday afternoon.  A more significant ua trough
digging south through the central/southern Rockies Monday will
contribute to this warming as westerly, downslope surface winds
increase over the area Sunday, and even moreso Monday.  High winds
will be possible in the the Guadalupe Mountains Monday as the ua
trough approaches, and Monday night as the ua trough moves over the
region.  For now, will mention in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

A cold front will crash south through the region Monday night and
Tuesday which will knock temperatures near to slightly below normal.
The resident time of the attendant surface ridge over the region
will be fairly short-lived as northwest flow aloft over the area
Wednesday becomes westerly on Christmas Day and will likely result
in high temperatures in the 60s and 70s for everyone.  The mild
temperatures will come crashing down again the day after Christmas,
or on Saturday if some of the slower models pan out.  One thing
seems fairly certain, there will not be much chance of precipitation
throughout the extended.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10 AM MST this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 11 AM CST this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Crane...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...
     Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Upton...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

99

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159
FXUS64 KMAF 200923
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
323 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A chilly surface ridge jutting southwestward into the region is
contributing to low cloud and fog development over eastern portions
of the forecast area this morning.  This as surface temperatures
cool to near current dewpoints, especially along and west of the
western fringe of a low cloud deck.  Hobbs, Andrews and Midland
have been reporting 1/4 statute miles in fog for a couple of hours,
with satellite imagery indicating other locations devoid of
observational data likely experiencing patchy dense fog.  Since low
clouds are not aggressively developing westward, and saturation of
the lower levels of the atmosphere will continue, will issue a Dense
Fog Advisory from Eddy and Lea Counties, southeastward across the
central Permian Basin until 20/17Z.  Some counties which will be
included in the advisory may see only patchy, or transient dense
fog.  Think it is more prudent to include these counties than have
to expand the advisory later.

Broad upper troughiness will prevail over the region today into
Sunday as a couple of innocuous shortwave troughs pass over, or
north of, the forecast area.  There will be little chance of rain
under this regime while temperatures gradually rise to around 15
degrees above normal Monday afternoon.  A more significant ua trough
digging south through the central/southern Rockies Monday will
contribute to this warming as westerly, downslope surface winds
increase over the area Sunday, and even moreso Monday.  High winds
will be possible in the the Guadalupe Mountains Monday as the ua
trough approaches, and Monday night as the ua trough moves over the
region.  For now, will mention in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

A cold front will crash south through the region Monday night and
Tuesday which will knock temperatures near to slightly below normal.
The resident time of the attendant surface ridge over the region
will be fairly short-lived as northwest flow aloft over the area
Wednesday becomes westerly on Christmas Day and will likely result
in high temperatures in the 60s and 70s for everyone.  The mild
temperatures will come crashing down again the day after Christmas,
or on Saturday if some of the slower models pan out.  One thing
seems fairly certain, there will not be much chance of precipitation
throughout the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 56  37  64  41  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              54  41  65  43  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                61  32  66  39  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  59  43  67  46  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           62  40  69  46  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          50  35  56  40  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   56  32  63  36  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   57  24  62  30  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    58  38  65  40  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  57  39  64  42  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    62  33  69  37  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10 AM MST this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 11 AM CST this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Crane...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...
     Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Upton...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

80/67

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227
FXUS64 KMAF 200502
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1102 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Low clouds are holding to the east so far tonight, but dropping
temperatures are causing patchy light fog to form in the clear
skies farther west. Expecting light fog ahead of IFR/LIFR CIG/VIS
which should arrive within the next few hours. These conditions
may struggle to reach the Pecos River TAF sites before daytime
heating allows for improvement Saturday morning.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Satellite imagery shows low clouds have slowly eroded from southwest
to northeast today. This has kept afternoon temperatures on the
cool side, especially across the northern and eastern portions of
the Permian Basin where low clouds remain in place. Indications
are that fog and low clouds will again reestablish themselves
along and east of the Pecos River overnight. Thus, we have
included mention of areas of fog in the forecast for these
locations.

Overall, the entire forecast looks dry with moderate temperatures
for southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas through the period.
Surface low pressure along and east of the northern and central
portions of the Rockies will result in south to southwest surface
winds on Saturday with downslope westerly winds on Sunday and
Monday. The resulting warming trend will push high temperatures
into the upper 60s and lower 70s by Monday afternoon.

As a Northern Plains upper level storm system and associated low
pressure area slides into the Upper Midwest early Tuesday, we should
see a cool down as a cold front slides into our area Tuesday
morning.  Little or no precipitation is forecast with this system,
except perhaps over the extreme northeast portions of the Permian
Basin and Rolling Plains. However, with the progressive nature of
the northern stream, impacts from this cold front will be brief
and uneventful. A quick exit of this cooler air will bring another
warming trend to our area, with high temperatures near 70
expected on Christmas Day.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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368
FXUS64 KMAF 192323
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
523 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Lower CIG/VIS has retreated east of the TAF sites this afternoon,
but will move back into the area tonight. IFR to LIFR conditions
are expected to develop 06-12Z before improving around 18Z. There
is a chance for 1/4SM FG and VV001, especially at MAF and HOB, but
confidence is not high enough to put in the forecast at this time.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Satellite imagery shows low clouds have slowly eroded from southwest
to northeast today. This has kept afternoon temperatures on the
cool side, especially across the northern and eastern portions of
the Permian Basin where low clouds remain in place. Indications
are that fog and low clouds will again reestablish themselves
along and east of the Pecos River overnight. Thus, we have
included mention of areas of fog in the forecast for these
locations.

Overall, the entire forecast looks dry with moderate temperatures
for southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas through the period.
Surface low pressure along and east of the northern and central
portions of the Rockies will result in south to southwest surface
winds on Saturday with downslope westerly winds on Sunday and
Monday. The resulting warming trend will push high temperatures
into the upper 60s and lower 70s by Monday afternoon.

As a Northern Plains upper level storm system and associated low
pressure area slides into the Upper Midwest early Tuesday, we should
see a cool down as a cold front slides into our area Tuesday
morning.  Little or no precipitation is forecast with this system,
except perhaps over the extreme northeast portions of the Permian
Basin and Rolling Plains. However, with the progressive nature of
the northern stream, impacts from this cold front will be brief
and uneventful. A quick exit of this cooler air will bring another
warming trend to our area, with high temperatures near 70
expected on Christmas Day.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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943
FXUS64 KMAF 192114
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
314 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Satellite imagery shows low clouds have slowly eroded from southwest
to northeast today. This has kept afternoon temperatures on the
cool side, especially across the northern and eastern portions of
the Permian Basin where low clouds remain in place. Indications
are that fog and low clouds will again reestablish themselves
along and east of the Pecos River overnight. Thus, we have
included mention of areas of fog in the forecast for these
locations.

Overall, the entire forecast looks dry with moderate temperatures
for southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas through the period.
Surface low pressure along and east of the northern and central
portions of the Rockies will result in south to southwest surface
winds on Saturday with downslope westerly winds on Sunday and
Monday. The resulting warming trend will push high temperatures
into the upper 60s and lower 70s by Monday afternoon.

As a Northern Plains upper level storm system and associated low
pressure area slides into the Upper Midwest early Tuesday, we should
see a cool down as a cold front slides into our area Tuesday
morning.  Little or no precipitation is forecast with this system,
except perhaps over the extreme northeast portions of the Permian
Basin and Rolling Plains. However, with the progressive nature of
the northern stream, impacts from this cold front will be brief
and uneventful. A quick exit of this cooler air will bring another
warming trend to our area, with high temperatures near 70
expected on Christmas Day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 35  56  36  63  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              36  55  40  64  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                27  56  29  67  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  44  58  43  67  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           38  60  40  68  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          32  52  35  57  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   29  54  31  63  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   25  58  24  61  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    36  56  37  64  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  36  57  37  64  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    32  61  33  69  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/03

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545
FXUS64 KMAF 191757 AAA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1157 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.UPDATE...
See public discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Will update the public products to remove morning wording (remove
mention of fog).

updated products to be sent shortly.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
IFR conditions at KINK, KHOB, KMAF should become VFR by early
this afternoon. VFR conditions with clear skies are expected
at all west Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals this
afternoon through much of tonight. TEMPO MVFR conditions in fog
is expected to redevelop late tonight at KHOB and KINK with
prevailing IFR conditions at KMAF developing by 06z tonight.

12

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

Expect IFR ceilings to spread west to KHOB and KINK, and stay over
these terminals, along with KMAF, until 19/16z or a little beyond.
MVFR visibility in fog will also affect these terminals during
this time, with KHOB and KPEQ possibly seeing IFR visibility in
fog.  KCNM and KFST are expected to be VFR, with the rest of the
terminals VFR this afternoon and tonight.  67

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Currently, fairly light winds with low dewpoint depressions across a
large portion of the CWA are allowing for a chance of fog to develop
across parts of the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, and the
Guadalupe Mountains.  Have added patchy fog into the grids for this
morning. An upper level trough is over the region bringing a weak
cold front into the area and resulting in cooler 850 mb
temperatures.  Upper lift has increased over the area and a few
showers have developed as a result.  As a result of the colder air,
temperatures today will be quite a bit cooler than the previous
day.  Less precipitation has developed than was previously expected
and expect conditions to be dry by this afternoon as most of the
showers are out of the area now.

Another shortwave/upper trough will approach the area on Saturday,
but no precipitation is expected with this next system.
Temperatures will warm up slightly on Saturday as winds shift toward
the south.  Winds will shift towards the west on Sunday as the upper
trough moves overhead which will warm temperatures up even further.
On Monday, the upper trough over the region will combine with an
upper trough moving over the Northern Plains to create one big
amplified upper trough.  A surface trough will develop over the
region as a result and cause downslope compressional warming as
winds strengthen out of the west.  Temperatures will warm up into
the 60s and 70s areawide on Monday.  A cold front associated with
this big upper trough will move into the area Monday evening.  This
will bring temperatures back down to near normal values for
Tuesday.  Winds will shift back towards the south and southwest on
Wednesday allowing temperatures to warm slightly.  Another upper
trough will dig southeastward over the western conus on Thursday.  A
surface trough will strengthen across the area as a result of this
and temperatures will warm back into the 60s and lower 70s on
Thursday.  This upper trough will move over the central conus next
Friday.  Don`t expect much precipitation from this system but will
continue to monitor as newer model data becomes available.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 54  35  57  36  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              51  36  57  39  /  20  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                55  27  58  32  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  62  44  59  42  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  38  61  39  /  10   0  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  32  52  35  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   54  29  56  32  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   57  25  58  26  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    54  36  57  37  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  53  36  57  37  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                    59  32  61  34  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/80

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788
FXUS64 KMAF 191713
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1112 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR conditions at KINK, KHOB, KMAF should become VFR by early
this afternoon. VFR conditions with clear skies are expected
at all west Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals this
afternoon through much of tonight. TEMPO MVFR conditions in fog
is expected to redevelop late tonight at KHOB and KINK with
prevailing IFR conditions at KMAF developing by 06z tonight.

12


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

Expect IFR ceilings to spread west to KHOB and KINK, and stay over
these terminals, along with KMAF, until 19/16z or a little beyond.
MVFR visibility in fog will also affect these terminals during
this time, with KHOB and KPEQ possibly seeing IFR visibility in
fog.  KCNM and KFST are expected to be VFR, with the rest of the
terminals VFR this afternoon and tonight.  67

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Currently, fairly light winds with low dewpoint depressions across a
large portion of the CWA are allowing for a chance of fog to develop
across parts of the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, and the
Guadalupe Mountains.  Have added patchy fog into the grids for this
morning. An upper level trough is over the region bringing a weak
cold front into the area and resulting in cooler 850 mb
temperatures.  Upper lift has increased over the area and a few
showers have developed as a result.  As a result of the colder air,
temperatures today will be quite a bit cooler than the previous
day.  Less precipitation has developed than was previously expected
and expect conditions to be dry by this afternoon as most of the
showers are out of the area now.

Another shortwave/upper trough will approach the area on Saturday,
but no precipitation is expected with this next system.
Temperatures will warm up slightly on Saturday as winds shift toward
the south.  Winds will shift towards the west on Sunday as the upper
trough moves overhead which will warm temperatures up even further.
On Monday, the upper trough over the region will combine with an
upper trough moving over the Northern Plains to create one big
amplified upper trough.  A surface trough will develop over the
region as a result and cause downslope compressional warming as
winds strengthen out of the west.  Temperatures will warm up into
the 60s and 70s areawide on Monday.  A cold front associated with
this big upper trough will move into the area Monday evening.  This
will bring temperatures back down to near normal values for
Tuesday.  Winds will shift back towards the south and southwest on
Wednesday allowing temperatures to warm slightly.  Another upper
trough will dig southeastward over the western conus on Thursday.  A
surface trough will strengthen across the area as a result of this
and temperatures will warm back into the 60s and lower 70s on
Thursday.  This upper trough will move over the central conus next
Friday.  Don`t expect much precipitation from this system but will
continue to monitor as newer model data becomes available.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/80

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012
FXUS64 KMAF 191104
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
504 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Expect IFR ceilings to spread west to KHOB and KINK, and stay over
these terminals, along with KMAF, until 19/16z or a little beyond.
MVFR visibility in fog will also affect these terminals during
this time, with KHOB and KPEQ possibly seeing IFR visibility in
fog.  KCNM and KFST are expected to be VFR, with the rest of the
terminals VFR this afternoon and tonight.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Currently, fairly light winds with low dewpoint depressions across a
large portion of the CWA are allowing for a chance of fog to develop
across parts of the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, and the
Guadalupe Mountains.  Have added patchy fog into the grids for this
morning. An upper level trough is over the region bringing a weak
cold front into the area and resulting in cooler 850 mb
temperatures.  Upper lift has increased over the area and a few
showers have developed as a result.  As a result of the colder air,
temperatures today will be quite a bit cooler than the previous
day.  Less precipitation has developed than was previously expected
and expect conditions to be dry by this afternoon as most of the
showers are out of the area now.

Another shortwave/upper trough will approach the area on Saturday,
but no precipitation is expected with this next system.
Temperatures will warm up slightly on Saturday as winds shift toward
the south.  Winds will shift towards the west on Sunday as the upper
trough moves overhead which will warm temperatures up even further.
On Monday, the upper trough over the region will combine with an
upper trough moving over the Northern Plains to create one big
amplified upper trough.  A surface trough will develop over the
region as a result and cause downslope compressional warming as
winds strengthen out of the west.  Temperatures will warm up into
the 60s and 70s areawide on Monday.  A cold front associated with
this big upper trough will move into the area Monday evening.  This
will bring temperatures back down to near normal values for
Tuesday.  Winds will shift back towards the south and southwest on
Wednesday allowing temperatures to warm slightly.  Another upper
trough will dig southeastward over the western conus on Thursday.  A
surface trough will strengthen across the area as a result of this
and temperatures will warm back into the 60s and lower 70s on
Thursday.  This upper trough will move over the central conus next
Friday.  Don`t expect much precipitation from this system but will
continue to monitor as newer model data becomes available.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 54  37  57  36  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              51  39  57  39  /  20  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                55  30  58  32  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  62  44  59  42  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  39  61  39  /  10   0  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  33  52  35  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   54  31  56  32  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   56  27  58  26  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    54  39  57  37  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  53  39  57  37  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                    59  34  61  34  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/80

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345
FXUS64 KMAF 191011
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
410 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Currently, fairly light winds with low dewpoint depressions across a
large portion of the CWA are allowing for a chance of fog to develop
across parts of the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, and the
Guadalupe Mountains.  Have added patchy fog into the grids for this
morning. An upper level trough is over the region bringing a weak
cold front into the area and resulting in cooler 850 mb
temperatures.  Upper lift has increased over the area and a few
showers have developed as a result.  As a result of the colder air,
temperatures today will be quite a bit cooler than the previous
day.  Less precipitation has developed than was previously expected
and expect conditions to be dry by this afternoon as most of the
showers are out of the area now.

Another shortwave/upper trough will approach the area on Saturday,
but no precipitation is expected with this next system.
Temperatures will warm up slightly on Saturday as winds shift toward
the south.  Winds will shift towards the west on Sunday as the upper
trough moves overhead which will warm temperatures up even further.
On Monday, the upper trough over the region will combine with an
upper trough moving over the Northern Plains to create one big
amplified upper trough.  A surface trough will develop over the
region as a result and cause downslope compressional warming as
winds strengthen out of the west.  Temperatures will warm up into
the 60s and 70s areawide on Monday.  A cold front associated with
this big upper trough will move into the area Monday evening.  This
will bring temperatures back down to near normal values for
Tuesday.  Winds will shift back towards the south and southwest on
Wednesday allowing temperatures to warm slightly.  Another upper
trough will dig southeastward over the western conus on Thursday.  A
surface trough will strengthen across the area as a result of this
and temperatures will warm back into the 60s and lower 70s on
Thursday.  This upper trough will move over the central conus next
Friday.  Don`t expect much precipitation from this system but will
continue to monitor as newer model data becomes available.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 54  37  57  36  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              51  39  57  39  /  20  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                55  30  58  32  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  62  44  59  42  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  39  61  39  /  10   0  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  33  52  35  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   54  31  56  32  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   56  27  58  26  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    54  39  57  37  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  53  39  57  37  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                    59  34  61  34  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/80

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950
FXUS64 KMAF 190454
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1054 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Cold front currently entering the northern Permian Basin and
southeast New Mexico Plains and is forecast to push southwest
toward the Pecos River by 12z Friday. A period of MVFR ceilings
and or visibility is expected at KMAF, KINK, KHOB near and behind
this front toward 12z Friday. KMAF is expected to clear last and
could take by early Friday afternoon to improve to VFR. Across
KCNM, KPEQ, and KFST VFR conditions are expected the next 24
hours.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Cold front across the Texas Panhandle will move southwest tonight
and is forecast to be near the Pecos River by 12z Friday morning.
With passage of front at KMAF, KINK, expect IFR conditions to
develop after 08z tonight and continue Friday morning. At KCNM and
KHOB, expecting TEMPO VFR to MVFR conditions in showers overnight
with prevailing MVFR conditions continuing at KHOB Friday morning.
At KPEQ and KFST, most of tonight will be VFR with TEMPO MVFR to
IFR visibtilites expected to develop by 12z TO 16Z in fog.

12

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Per recent water vapor imagery, a shortwave/upper trough is
currently moving eastward across southern Arizona, and will dominate
sensible weather in our area over the next 24 hours. Modest 500mb
height falls will overspread the region this evening and tonight
ahead of the approaching trough, and given decent low and mid-level
moisture in place, as well as a cold front which will edge into the
area from the northeast by around 06Z, there will be adequate lift
and upper level support for precipitation overnight. Models continue
to indicate light QPF across the majority of the forecast area, with
the exception of the Presidio Valley along the Rio Grande. Expect
precipitation to gradually overspread the area from west to east
tonight, with the best window for widespread rainfall between 06Z
and 12Z. Mid-level lapse rates will increase overnight, and model
soundings indicate the presence of some elevated instability, mainly
over the Lower Trans Pecos. Thus, have maintained the chance for
thunderstorms in that area, as a few thunderstorms cannot be ruled
out overnight tonight and early Friday. No severe weather is
currently anticipated. At the other end of the spectrum, there is a
chance for a rain/snow/sleet mix, mainly in the higher elevations
within the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, where vertical temperature
profiles look to be conducive to intermittent frozen precipitation.
Given warm ground temperatures, no accumulation is expected, and
thus, impacts should be minimal. As the shortwave exits the area on
Friday, precipitation will taper off from west to east, with the
chance of showers Friday confined mainly to the far eastern Permian
Basin and Western Low Rolling Plains.  Highs Friday will be roughly
5-10 degrees cooler for much of the area aside from the Rio Grande
Valley, dipping slightly below normal for this time of year.

Temperatures Saturday will moderate toward normal as ahead of the
next approaching upper level trough, which will move through the
region on Sunday.  Given a lack of moisture in place ahead of this
system, it will pass with little fanfare aside from serving to shift
winds to the west, which will allow temperatures to once again climb
above normal, with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s Sunday, and mid
60s to low 70s on Monday. Rather innocuous northwest flow aloft will
set in over the area in the wake of Sunday`s trough, which will be
further  reinforced by cyclogenesis over the Great Lakes Region and
subsequent deepening of a trough over the eastern CONUS. A weak cold
front will move through the region on Tuesday, which will serve to
cool temperatures to near normal, though temperatures will climb
back into the 60s for Wednesday and Thursday.  Otherwise, a quiet
pattern will ensue, with no precipitation currently expected through
the extended.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/84

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244
FXUS64 KMAF 182322
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
522 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Cold front across the Texas Panhandle will move southwest tonight
and is forecast to be near the Pecos River by 12z Friday morning.
With passage of front at KMAF, KINK, expect IFR conditions to
develop after 08z tonight and continue Friday morning. At KCNM and
KHOB, expecting TEMPO VFR to MVFR conditions in showers overnight
with prevailing MVFR conditions continuing at KHOB Friday morning.
At KPEQ and KFST, most of tonight will be VFR with TEMPO MVFR to
IFR visibtilites expected to develop by 12z TO 16Z in fog.

12


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Per recent water vapor imagery, a shortwave/upper trough is
currently moving eastward across southern Arizona, and will dominate
sensible weather in our area over the next 24 hours. Modest 500mb
height falls will overspread the region this evening and tonight
ahead of the approaching trough, and given decent low and mid-level
moisture in place, as well as a cold front which will edge into the
area from the northeast by around 06Z, there will be adequate lift
and upper level support for precipitation overnight. Models continue
to indicate light QPF across the majority of the forecast area, with
the exception of the Presidio Valley along the Rio Grande. Expect
precipitation to gradually overspread the area from west to east
tonight, with the best window for widespread rainfall between 06Z
and 12Z. Mid-level lapse rates will increase overnight, and model
soundings indicate the presence of some elevated instability, mainly
over the Lower Trans Pecos. Thus, have maintained the chance for
thunderstorms in that area, as a few thunderstorms cannot be ruled
out overnight tonight and early Friday. No severe weather is
currently anticipated. At the other end of the spectrum, there is a
chance for a rain/snow/sleet mix, mainly in the higher elevations
within the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, where vertical temperature
profiles look to be conducive to intermittent frozen precipitation.
Given warm ground temperatures, no accumulation is expected, and
thus, impacts should be minimal. As the shortwave exits the area on
Friday, precipitation will taper off from west to east, with the
chance of showers Friday confined mainly to the far eastern Permian
Basin and Western Low Rolling Plains.  Highs Friday will be roughly
5-10 degrees cooler for much of the area aside from the Rio Grande
Valley, dipping slightly below normal for this time of year.

Temperatures Saturday will moderate toward normal as ahead of the
next approaching upper level trough, which will move through the
region on Sunday.  Given a lack of moisture in place ahead of this
system, it will pass with little fanfare aside from serving to shift
winds to the west, which will allow temperatures to once again climb
above normal, with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s Sunday, and mid
60s to low 70s on Monday. Rather innocuous northwest flow aloft will
set in over the area in the wake of Sunday`s trough, which will be
further  reinforced by cyclogenesis over the Great Lakes Region and
subsequent deepening of a trough over the eastern CONUS. A weak cold
front will move through the region on Tuesday, which will serve to
cool temperatures to near normal, though temperatures will climb
back into the 60s for Wednesday and Thursday.  Otherwise, a quiet
pattern will ensue, with no precipitation currently expected through
the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 38  52  32  57  /  40  20   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              40  51  35  57  /  40  30   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                37  54  30  58  /  40  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  48  64  41  61  /  40  20   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           41  57  36  62  /  40  20   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          34  50  33  52  /  40  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   37  52  29  57  /  40  20   0   0
MARFA TX                   30  58  23  60  /  30  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    37  54  33  58  /  40  20   0   0
ODESSA TX                  36  53  34  57  /  40  20   0   0
WINK TX                    40  59  32  61  /  30  20   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/84

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http://weather.gov/midland
860
FXUS64 KMAF 182056
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
256 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Per recent water vapor imagery, a shortwave/upper trough is
currently moving eastward across southern Arizona, and will dominate
sensible weather in our area over the next 24 hours. Modest 500mb
height falls will overspread the region this evening and tonight
ahead of the approaching trough, and given decent low and mid-level
moisture in place, as well as a cold front which will edge into the
area from the northeast by around 06Z, there will be adequate lift
and upper level support for precipitation overnight. Models continue
to indicate light QPF across the majority of the forecast area, with
the exception of the Presidio Valley along the Rio Grande. Expect
precipitation to gradually overspread the area from west to east
tonight, with the best window for widespread rainfall between 06Z
and 12Z. Mid-level lapse rates will increase overnight, and model
soundings indicate the presence of some elevated instability, mainly
over the Lower Trans Pecos. Thus, have maintained the chance for
thunderstorms in that area, as a few thunderstorms cannot be ruled
out overnight tonight and early Friday. No severe weather is
currently anticipated. At the other end of the spectrum, there is a
chance for a rain/snow/sleet mix, mainly in the higher elevations
within the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, where vertical temperature
profiles look to be conducive to intermittent frozen precipitation.
Given warm ground temperatures, no accumulation is expected, and
thus, impacts should be minimal. As the shortwave exits the area on
Friday, precipitation will taper off from west to east, with the
chance of showers Friday confined mainly to the far eastern Permian
Basin and Western Low Rolling Plains.  Highs Friday will be roughly
5-10 degrees cooler for much of the area aside from the Rio Grande
Valley, dipping slightly below normal for this time of year.

Temperatures Saturday will moderate toward normal as ahead of the
next approaching upper level trough, which will move through the
region on Sunday.  Given a lack of moisture in place ahead of this
system, it will pass with little fanfare aside from serving to shift
winds to the west, which will allow temperatures to once again climb
above normal, with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s Sunday, and mid
60s to low 70s on Monday. Rather innocuous northwest flow aloft will
set in over the area in the wake of Sunday`s trough, which will be
further  reinforced by cyclogenesis over the Great Lakes Region and
subsequent deepening of a trough over the eastern CONUS. A weak cold
front will move through the region on Tuesday, which will serve to
cool temperatures to near normal, though temperatures will climb
back into the 60s for Wednesday and Thursday.  Otherwise, a quiet
pattern will ensue, with no precipitation currently expected through
the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 38  52  32  57  /  40  20   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              40  51  35  57  /  40  30   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                37  54  30  58  /  40  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  48  64  41  61  /  40  20   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           41  57  36  62  /  40  20   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          34  50  33  52  /  40  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   37  52  29  57  /  40  20   0   0
MARFA TX                   30  58  23  60  /  30  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    37  54  33  58  /  40  20   0   0
ODESSA TX                  36  53  34  57  /  40  20   0   0
WINK TX                    40  59  32  61  /  30  20   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/84

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