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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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086
FXUS64 KMAF 211738
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1238 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES. MORNING COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED AS
FAR SOUTH AS INTERSTATE 10 AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS REMAIN AT ALL
TERMINAL EXCEPT FOR CNM. WIND SPEEDS 10-15KT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20-25KT WILL CONTINUE INTO MID AFTERNOON THEN BEGIN TO
DECREASE AND VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/

DISCUSSION...

WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NE NM...SET TO MOVE THRU THE
PANHANDLES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  AT THE SFC...OBS SHOWED A COLD
FRONT MOVING THRU SE NM/WRN LOW ROLLING PLAINS...AND WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON TEMPS ABOUT A CAT BELOW NORMAL TODAY.  MODELS DEVELOP
CONVECTION ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH AS IT SWINGS THRU THE
PANHANDLES LATER TODAY...BUT ONLY GRAZES THE NE ZONES.  COOLER WX
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH...AS THE SFC RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES
SE...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO RESUME...AND A QUICK REBOUND TO
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPS WEDNESDAY UNDER A DEVELOPING RIDGE.
MEANWHILE...RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT ABUNDANT GULF MSTR INTO THE
AREA...W/FORECAST DEWPOINTS OF 60F OR BETTER THRU KMAF BY 12Z
THURSDAY.  THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MODELS BRING THE FIRST OF A SERIES
OF PERTURBATIONS THRU THE RIDGE...INITIATING CONVECTION INVOF A WEAK
DRYLINE...AND EVEN MORE SO FRIDAY...WHEN MODELS BACK THE DRYLINE UP
BEYOND KGDP.  MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT W/THIS SCENARIO FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NOW...SO WE/VE INCREASED POPS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.  BY
00Z SATURDAY...THE ECMWF INCREASES THE PWAT AT KMAF TO 1.45
INCHES...WELL-ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...SO A DECENT SHOT AT MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE
CARDS.  SATURDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER SHOT AT CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER
THE EASTERN ZONES.  MODELS EVEN TRY TO REDEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG
THE DRYLINE SUNDAY/MEMORIAL DAY...BUT DIFFER ON PLACEMENT...SO WE/VE
KEPT GRIDS DRY THEN.

FOR TEMPS...THE NAM HAS BEEN WAY TOO COLD ON LOWS...ESPECIALLY IN
LIEU OF EXPECTED RETURN MOISTURE...SO WE/VE GENERALLY STAYED ABOVE
GUIDANCE.  HIGHS LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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