Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Skip options and go directly to product.
Home | Oldest Version | Next Version | Current Version | All | Graphics & Text | Save Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off

Skip product version selection by date and time.   

FXUS64 KMAF 270457

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1157 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015


See 06z aviation discussion below.



A few showers with an isolated thunderstorm are expected to
continue east of MAF for a few more hours but should not impact
any of the terminals. VFR conditions are expected through the
period. Winds will remain light and somewhat variable throughout
the period.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 323 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015/


Impact weather through next Saturday is confined to thunderstorms
this afternoon and tonight. The best chances for thunderstorms
will be over the western Low Rolling Plains and much of the
Permian Basin of west Texas, from now until around midnight. Impacts
will be (ranking in significance) wind gusts to 40 mph, occasional
cloud-to-ground lightning, and brief heavy rain. Should thunder-
storms affect an urban area this afternoon through tonight, look
for minor to moderate flooding of streets and other areas
susceptible to high water.

A compact short wave trough over the eastern Texas Panhandle will
translate south and weaken this afternoon and tonight.  Scattered
convection at press time extends from Lamesa to Robert Lee to near
Paint Rock. The combination of differential heating and cold pools
are increasing low level frontogenesis out ahead of these storms.
The combination of an unstable air mass ahead of the boundary,
deep layer adiabatic lift ahead of the aforementioned short wave
trough producing more conditional instability, and cold pool
strengthening will persist through the evening hours. This system
is bringing anywhere from 1.0" to 1.4" of precipitable water, and
with weak shear expected, it`s not out of the question to see some
brief heavy rainfall with these storms. Given antecedent
conditions in the Midland/Odessa areas, should a thunderstorm
affect these metro areas, there is a potential for minor to
moderate street flooding as well as flooding of low-lying areas.

Elsewhere across southeastern New Mexico and west Texas, partly
cloudy and mild conditions are forecast through the overnight
hours, with light northeast to southeast winds expected.

The forecast becomes, well, less interesting starting Sunday and
continuing through next week. The upper flow regime over the CONUS
will consist of a strong belt of westerlies along the northern
tier of states and a broad weakness in the 850 to 500 hPa layer,
centered more or less over east Texas. This area will persist
through next week, while upper level ridging will begin to build
over the southern High Plains. This will mean mostly clear skies,
light winds, and temperatures some five to ten degrees above




99 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.