Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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880
FXUS64 KMAF 252246
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
546 PM CDT Mon Aug 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Area radars show another busy afternoon of convection, mainly over
SE NM under a passing shortwave aloft. KMAF 12Z RAOB and forecast
soundings suggest +RA to be the main threat w/these cells, and
this activity should begin to diminish w/loss of daytime heating.
Otherwise, return flow will continue next 24 hours, w/only a weak
LLJ expected overnight. Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu
field most terminals by late morning Tuesday, w/bases 5-7 kft agl.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 204 PM CDT Mon Aug 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Started the day with an upper ridge extending from the Great Lakes
to NM and an upper trough over the Northwest U.S.  As the upper
trough swings across the west and into the central plains it will
carve out the center of the ridge by Thursday.  This trough will
bring the best chance of rain to the area this week.

Had storms yesterday over much of the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos
as a surface trough helped development.  The surface trough looks to
be farther west this afternoon which will result in fewer storms for
the Permian Basin.  Model qpf keeps most of the precip out west with
an emphasis over SE NM.  Storms over the South Plains this morning
have built back southward into the northern CWA this afternoon.
Also have storms on radar from north of Tatum to Pine Springs to the
Davis Mtns.  Have increased pops slightly tonight across the west.
Only expecting isolated storms tonight over the Permian Basin and
most of the Upper Trans Pecos.  Will have to monitor storm
development for a few strong storms and locally heavy rain... MAF
12Z sounding was unstable with a LI of nearly -6 and a PW of 1.24
inches.  Will highlight in HWO.  Afternoon storms will be mainly
over the mountains again Tuesday.

Overnight temps will remain above normal in the 70s.  Afternoon
temps will be warm with highs in the upper 90s Tuesday and
Wednesday.  Models still struggling as to whether or not to bring a
front through with the upper trough.  They do seem to show a Pacific
front Wednesday and Thursday pushing up against the western CWA but
then seem to loose continuity.  The increased clouds and rain cooled
air should be enough to help keep temps a little cooler on Thursday.

Thursday looks to be the best chance of rain this week.  Eta
develops a large swath of precip ahead of a Pacific front by
Thursday from near Presidio... to Midland... to Childress that
pushes east across the area.  Gfs shows similar results but not as
widespread.  Could see precip develop as early as Wednesday
afternoon/evening across SE NM ahead of the approaching upper
trough.  Model soundings had been trying to dry out the airmass next
few days but are now pushing PW to near 1.6 inches by Thursday
morning.  Will have to continue to monitor developments for possible
heavy rain event.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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