Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 301735

1235 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2014



VFR conditions will continue.  Have had a few showers and storms
develop this afternoon NE of MAF along a surface trough that extends
from near SNK southward to E of FST.  Have not included mention of
TSRA in TAFs.  Wind will be southerly east of the trough and westerly
west of it.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2014/

Temperatures will be a bit above normal today and tomorrow with
the help of westerly mid and upper level flow across the area. An
upper low over the north central plains will lift north today, and
while normally this would have little impact on west Texas and
southeast New Mexico, today it will give a slight chance for
showers and thunderstorms thanks to tropical moisture from
Tropical Storm Rachel in the eastern Pacific. East Pac moisture
was the source for our flooding rains last week but right now
there is much less moisture so just a few storms is all that is

A second upper trough drops into the southern Rockies Thursday
bringing our next cold front. High temperatures will be tricky as
the front will pass through the CWA during the day and timing will
be critical as to how much pre-frontal heating will occur before
cold air advection begins. Most models right now show a mid-day
fropa at MAF with little heating in northern Lea County and hot
temperatures mainly along the Rio Grande valley. Not impressed
with the strength of the upper trough so will not place any PoPs
in with the frontal passage at this time though isolated storms in
the eastern Permian Basin and western Low Rolling Plains where
limited moisture will be available would not be a surprise at all.

In the wake of the trough a broad ridge over the western states
will develop and remain stationary keeping us in a northwest flow
pattern through the weekend. This will cause temps to only slowly
warm from highs near 80 on Friday to the mid and upper 80s by
early next week.






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