Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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036
FXUS64 KMAF 240900
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
400 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Not many changes to current forecast.  Area radars show convection
has diminished across most of the FA, w/only a few -SHRA in NW Eddy
County.  MRMS estimates indicate that the Wrn Low Rolling Plains and
Permian Basin fared best w/regards to rainfall last night,
w/widespread estimates over 1", and totals as high as 5-6".  Latest
sfc analysis shows the old cold front down in the Big Bend Area/Lwr
Trans Pecos, but a secondary surge of cold air is currently moving
thru Southeast New Mexico, the Wrn Low Rolling Plains, and Permian
Basin.  W/these two fronts in the area, as well as residual
boundaries from yesterday`s activity, at least a slight chance of
thunderstorms will persist throughout the day across most of West
Texas and SE NM.  Buffer soundings suggest temps this afternoon will
be blo normal north, abv normal south, although cloud cover,
convection, and antecedent soil moisture will all combine to
frustrate things.

Otherwise, WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over the Gulf
Coast, but this is still forecast to build west as the Great Lakes
trough amplifies during the week.  Thicknesses will increase through
Friday, w/a corresponding ramp-up of temperatures to the upper 90s
most locations for the weekend.  Long-range models park the ridge
over the SW CONUS/Nrn Mexico by the end of the extended, w/chances
of rain after today slim-to-none.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  92  73  95  72  /  20  10  20  10
CARLSBAD NM                    89  70  94  71  /  20  10  10   0
DRYDEN TX                      97  75  97  75  /  20   0  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               95  70  96  70  /  20  10  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              84  68  88  68  /  20  10  10   0
HOBBS NM                       88  69  92  68  /  20  10  10   0
MARFA TX                       87  57  85  57  /  10  10   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        92  73  95  72  /  20  10  10   0
ODESSA TX                      91  72  95  73  /  20  10  10   0
WINK TX                        93  72  96  73  /  20  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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