Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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456
FXUS64 KMAF 170236
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
836 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2014

.UPDATE...
Updating to remove snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updating first period grids/forecast as most of the snow has
moved out of the area. Highest reports were around 1/2 inch at
Queen and near Jal. Went ahead and removed mention of snow tonight
as threat of measurable precipitation winding down... but could be
a few very light flurries before morning. Updated products on
their way.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours will be SN and low
cigs/vis affecting terminals in the short term. Currently have
strong northerly winds across the board, behind a cold front that
has moved south of all terminals. Winds are expected to decrease
over the next several hour as surface high pressure settles into the
region tonight. Generally have MVFR cloud deck affecting terminals
but should start to see improvements this evening from west to east.
Otherwise, a few areas of SN (and lowered vis) remain across
portions of west Texas but current thinking is that all activity
will move east of terminals by 03Z. Will amend with any adjustment
needed.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Latest radar shows bands of light to moderate snow from the Davis
Mountains north into southeastern New Mexico and east into the
Permian Basin. Most of the precipitation is being reported as snow
though there may be some sleet mixed in initially especially in
any convective bands. The shallow nature of the moisture near the
surface is also allowing for some light freezing drizzle to
develop in a few areas though ice accumulation is not expected
from this. Expecting near 1 inch amounts in northern Lea County
and possibly higher amounts in the highest elevations of the
Guadalupe Mountains, but most areas will see a dusting to one half
of an inch. The very cold temperatures are creating a dry snow
which is blowing around some and could create drifts well above
the average snowfall that is expected.

The upper trough creating the wintry precip will move east across
the area tonight, pushing the snow out of the area by midnight.
Decreasing isentropic lift will also cause the precip to diminish
with time so PoPs will be decreasing with time as well as from
west to east. Beginning tomorrow, the highly amplified west coast
ridge that has brought us this frigid air will break down allowing
the pattern to become more zonal. A series of upper troughs will
then move out of the eastern Pacific, across the desert southwest
and into the south plains. The strongest will arrive late in the
week pushing another cold front into the area. The lack of an
amplified pattern will limit the amount of cold air behind the
front so do not expect temperatures as cold as currently seen.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 24  40  25  47  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              24  42  25  48  /  20   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                23  43  26  49  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  31  47  29  50  /  20   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           25  44  28  51  /  20   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          22  39  27  48  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   21  41  24  47  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   23  43  23  49  /  20   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    22  42  24  48  /  10   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  23  42  25  48  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                    25  44  26  50  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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