Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 011120

620 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

See 12Z aviation discussion below.


VFR conditions and light south winds through the period.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014/

A broad upper trough moving across the northern plains will have
little effect on a strong high pressure ridge over the region.  This
ridge extends from the Pacific to the Atlantic and is responsible
for the current hot wx.  However by midweek the next upper trough
will dig down the West Coast and help the upper ridge to slide
east.  This will result in cooling temperatures for W TX and SE NM.

The first day of September will be unusually hot.  Normal high
temperatures for the Permian Basin for this time of year have fallen
to the lower 90s... however expect most of the region to be at or
above 100 degrees today.  Should reach or exceed 105 degrees for the
Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys.  This heat is due to a thermal ridge
extending along the TX/NM line southward to the Rio Grande.  Eta
shows 850 temps will be about the same today as yesterday so expect
near persistence temps.  Went at or above yesterdays highs for today
due to residual heat as overnight temps slow to cool off.  Should be
a couple degrees cooler Tuesday as thermal axis farther west.
Latest MEX guidance has come in cooler Wed through Fri than previous
runs.  Have trended temps down in the extended.

Strong subsidence Sunday resulted in few clouds over the plains and
only a few light showers over northern Brewster county.  Models
continue to develop a few afternoon storms over the Davis mtns...
Marfa Plateau... and northern Big Bend so will leave the isolated
pops in today and Tuesday.  Rest of the forecast is dry.






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