Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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949
FXUS64 KMAF 120527
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1227 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGs currently reported near BPG may move briefly into MAF
later tonight before southwest winds push it back east. Otherwise
VFR conditions are expected much of this TAF period. Rain is
expected to develop Sunday afternoon which could briefly lower
CIGs to MVFR during heavier downpours, but this cannot be
accurately placed in the TAFs at this time.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Clouds are slowly clearing w-e with recent convective development in
S Terrell Co, where LIs are -4 to -8. Another axis of SB instability
is across the nrn CWFA into the S Plains and s into Concho Valley
and with clearing new development is anticipated in nrn parts where
SB CINH is weaker, in general agreement with ECMWF/GFS QPF.  There
is potential for isold severe storms too, with CAPES above 2000 J/KG
and 30-35kts across the nrn PB. Sunday, said upper low will be sw of
KELP and this will place the CWFA within a favorable area for
precip, in the backed 5h winds and within the axis of highest PW (~3
standard deviations above normal per NAEFS). Expect that SHRA/TSRA
will move across the Rio Grande INVOF the Big Bend near 18Z and then
expand in coverage as lift increases within deformation zone.
NAM80/GFS depict a well-defined OMEGA maxima, especially across
Trans Pecos and the PB. MET guidance mostly reflects chance PoPs as
does the current fcst. Our impression, largely based on the pattern,
is that PoPs should be more into the "likely" category. With such
high PWs and persistent lift locally heavy rain is possible,
marginal severe wx too, mainly across the ern 1/3 of CWFA. Said low
and assocd axis of maxima PW/OMEGA lift nwd Sunday night/Mon AM. As
such PoPs will be less Monday, but the 5h low will be over the area
with enuf instability for continued scattered SHRA/TSRA. An assocd
cold front will slowly move s into the nrn PB late Mon PM, which may
renew precip for a few hrs across the nrn PB. Temps will be
difficult because of rain cooled air Sunday, underneath upper low
Monday, and cooler in wake of the front Tue? Another front looks to
arrive Wed night/Thursday morning, re-enforcing cool/dry air Thur.
Mstr return does not look likely Friday/Saturday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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