Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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535
FXUS64 KMAF 232336
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
636 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected at all TAF sites. Currently have some isolated convection
near the Davis Mountains and just south of CNM. Not expecting
activity to affect terminals but will continue to monitor trends
and amend if/when needed. Otherwise, expect light southerly winds
to continue overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
West Texas remains on the western periphery of an upper high
centered over the Mississippi River valley. This will allow
convection to develop over the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains and
move north into southeast New Mexico, a pattern which will repeat
for the next several days. High temperatures will remain slightly
above normal and it will be very tough to beat guidance through
next Wednesday.

An upper trough currently over the northwestern U.S. will slowly
move east through early next week reaching the Central Plains by
Thursday. There is more disagreement with the strength and timing
of this system from yesterday with the ECMWF and Canadian models
deeper and slower than the GFS. Do not like the fact that the
ECMWF is deeper with the upper trough yet weaker with the surface
front so the battle is mainly between the Canadian and GFS right
now. All models have slowed the front down from yesterday
perhaps indicating a deeper upper trough may be the best solution.
Hopefully that will be true as it would give us better rain
chances but with so much uncertainty will keep PoPs at slight
chance for now. A stronger front as well as clouds and precip
would no doubt give us a nice cold pool at the surface so any
increase in PoPs will likely mean a need to lower forecast highs
for Thu/Fri. A return of ridging next weekend will bring more
warmer temps.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27

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