Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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637
FXUS64 KMAF 301952
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
252 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Surface troughs located along the west Texas/eastern New Mexico
border and across southeast New Mexico is combining with very
intense heating to produce the development of isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms across the Eddy county plains and
Guadalupe and Davis mountains this afternoon. Expect activity to
continue to increase in coverage tonight across southeast New
Mexico and much of west Texas as low level convergence associated
with a cold front pushes south into the forecast area. Also aiding
in the chance of thunderstorms tonight will be the retrogression
of the upper high from west Texas back west toward Arizona and New
Mexico.

The cold front will continue to push south toward the Rio Grande
River tonight and Thursday. This will push the better chance of
convection to areas mainly south and west of the Pecos River
during the day Thursday. Behind this front high temperatures
Thursday are expected to be 10 to 15 degrees cooler than today.
The chance of thunderstorms will continue Thursday night and
expand northeastward again to include the western and central
Permian Basin due to a shortwave tracking into the area from the
northwest with some warm advection taking place above and north of
the front.

For Friday through next Monday the front is forecast to stall
along and or near the Rio Grande River. This will keep the chance
of thunderstorms continuing through all these periods mainly south
and west of the Pecos River with the best chance in the mountains
closest to the front with unstable upslope flow behind the front.
Temperatures are expected to be below normal in the cooler air
behind the front with a significant amount of cloud cover expected
areawide as well.

Beyond Monday kept a slight chance of thunderstorms going mainly in
the mountains along a surface trough with temperatures warming
toward normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 68  87  66  86  /  30  10  10  20
BIG SPRING TX              68  85  68  86  /  30  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                70  85  68  85  /  30  10  30  30
DRYDEN TX                  76  94  74  91  /  10  20  30  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           71  90  68  87  /  30  30  20  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          62  82  61  79  /  30  30  30  40
HOBBS NM                   66  85  66  83  /  30  10  20  20
MARFA TX                   66  84  66  80  /  30  40  30  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    69  88  66  87  /  30  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  68  88  67  87  /  30  10  10  20
WINK TX                    72  91  72  90  /  30  20  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12

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