Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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070
FXUS64 KMAF 011930
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
230 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Not much change to the current forecast.  WV shows the broad,
flat/elongated upper ridge extending from the Pacific to the
Atlantic and covering the southern CONUS has moved north over the
past 24 hrs.  As a result, fairly benign wx will persist over the
next week, w/rain chances slim to none aside from isolated
afternoon/evening convection in the Davis Mtns.  Models also develop
convection in the Rio Grande Valley over the next couple of days,
and try and bring it into the lwr Trans Pecos, but not by much.

Models are similar to 24 hrs ago in developing the upper ridge into
the Gulf Coast region over the next few days, w/temps on the decline
after this afternoon as thicknesses decrease as the ridge moves
east.  Models still exhibit Significant differences in the strength
of the thermal ridge over the next few days.  The NAM remains the
coldest outlier, and appears to cool things off too quickly, and has
been running a bit cool the past few days.  The CMC and ARW came in
the warmest, w/the GFS, ECMWF, and NMM holding the middle ground.
W/the warmer solutions panning out the past few days, we`ve opted to
lean towards the warmer side of guidance.

Upper ridge is forecast to set up shop over the SE CONUS most of the
week, then build back west beginning Friday.  However, models
persist in bringing back a much weaker version than what`s over us
at the moment.  Temps should drop to just a notch above normal by
midweek, and stay there thru the weekend.  Big difference in the
extended models today is a cold front approaching the area Saturday
night.  The GFS stalls this feature in the Wrn Low Rolling Plains,
whereas the ECMWF brings it further into the CWA.  The 00Z ECMWF was
more confident in bringing it all the way to the Rio Grande, whereas
the latest run is more in line w/the GFS.  Models tend to be rather
obstreperous w/the first few cold fronts this time of year, so it
wouldn`t be surprising if the front didn`t make it into the FA at
all, and stalled or dissipated further north.  Finally, a glance at
NAEFS standardized anomalies for Sunday suggest the GFS is the
better solution.  Thus, we`ve leaned toward the warmer GFS, w/no
front.  If the front does make it as far as the GFS suggests, the
Wrn Low Rolling Plains may need some convection added Saturday
night.  For the time being, we`ll keep the grids dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 74 100  72  94  /   0  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              75 100  74  94  /   0  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                69 103  74  97  /   0   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  78  99  77  93  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           75 102  73  93  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          74  98  68  90  /   0   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                   68 100  69  94  /   0  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   60  93  59  87  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    76 100  74  93  /   0  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  77  99  74  94  /   0  10  10  10
WINK TX                    77 106  75  99  /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/44

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777
FXUS64 KMAF 011652
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1152 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions under mostly clear skies are expected the next 24
hours. South to southwest winds of 5 to 15 mph this afternoon
will become southeast at 10 to 20 mph and gusty tonight at
the west Texas terminals. Winds at the southeastern New Mexico
terminals will be lighter and more variable overnight.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light south winds through the period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A broad upper trough moving across the northern plains will have
little effect on a strong high pressure ridge over the region.  This
ridge extends from the Pacific to the Atlantic and is responsible
for the current hot wx.  However by midweek the next upper trough
will dig down the West Coast and help the upper ridge to slide
east.  This will result in cooling temperatures for W TX and SE NM.

The first day of September will be unusually hot.  Normal high
temperatures for the Permian Basin for this time of year have fallen
to the lower 90s... however expect most of the region to be at or
above 100 degrees today.  Should reach or exceed 105 degrees for the
Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys.  This heat is due to a thermal ridge
extending along the TX/NM line southward to the Rio Grande.  Eta
shows 850 temps will be about the same today as yesterday so expect
near persistence temps.  Went at or above yesterdays highs for today
due to residual heat as overnight temps slow to cool off.  Should be
a couple degrees cooler Tuesday as thermal axis farther west.
Latest MEX guidance has come in cooler Wed through Fri than previous
runs.  Have trended temps down in the extended.

Strong subsidence Sunday resulted in few clouds over the plains and
only a few light showers over northern Brewster county.  Models
continue to develop a few afternoon storms over the Davis mtns...
Marfa Plateau... and northern Big Bend so will leave the isolated
pops in today and Tuesday.  Rest of the forecast is dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                100  73  98  71  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX             100  74  98  73  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM               105  70 102  70  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                 104  77 101  76  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX          102  74  99  73  /   0  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          97  71  95  69  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                  100  69  98  68  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   94  59  92  58  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   101  74  98  73  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                 100  75  99  73  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                   105  74 103  73  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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071
FXUS64 KMAF 011120
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
620 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light south winds through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A broad upper trough moving across the northern plains will have
little effect on a strong high pressure ridge over the region.  This
ridge extends from the Pacific to the Atlantic and is responsible
for the current hot wx.  However by midweek the next upper trough
will dig down the West Coast and help the upper ridge to slide
east.  This will result in cooling temperatures for W TX and SE NM.

The first day of September will be unusually hot.  Normal high
temperatures for the Permian Basin for this time of year have fallen
to the lower 90s... however expect most of the region to be at or
above 100 degrees today.  Should reach or exceed 105 degrees for the
Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys.  This heat is due to a thermal ridge
extending along the TX/NM line southward to the Rio Grande.  Eta
shows 850 temps will be about the same today as yesterday so expect
near persistence temps.  Went at or above yesterdays highs for today
due to residual heat as overnight temps slow to cool off.  Should be
a couple degrees cooler Tuesday as thermal axis farther west.
Latest MEX guidance has come in cooler Wed through Fri than previous
runs.  Have trended temps down in the extended.

Strong subsidence Sunday resulted in few clouds over the plains and
only a few light showers over northern Brewster county.  Models
continue to develop a few afternoon storms over the Davis mtns...
Marfa Plateau... and northern Big Bend so will leave the isolated
pops in today and Tuesday.  Rest of the forecast is dry.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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426
FXUS64 KMAF 010856
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
356 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A broad upper trough moving across the northern plains will have
little effect on a strong high pressure ridge over the region.  This
ridge extends from the Pacific to the Atlantic and is responsible
for the current hot wx.  However by midweek the next upper trough
will dig down the West Coast and help the upper ridge to slide
east.  This will result in cooling temperatures for W TX and SE NM.

The first day of September will be unusually hot.  Normal high
temperatures for the Permian Basin for this time of year have fallen
to the lower 90s... however expect most of the region to be at or
above 100 degrees today.  Should reach or exceed 105 degrees for the
Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys.  This heat is due to a thermal ridge
extending along the TX/NM line southward to the Rio Grande.  Eta
shows 850 temps will be about the same today as yesterday so expect
near persistence temps.  Went at or above yesterdays highs for today
due to residual heat as overnight temps slow to cool off.  Should be
a couple degrees cooler Tuesday as thermal axis farther west.
Latest MEX guidance has come in cooler Wed through Fri than previous
runs.  Have trended temps down in the extended.

Strong subsidence Sunday resulted in few clouds over the plains and
only a few light showers over northern Brewster county.  Models
continue to develop a few afternoon storms over the Davis mtns...
Marfa Plateau... and northern Big Bend so will leave the isolated
pops in today and Tuesday.  Rest of the forecast is dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                100  73  98  71  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX             100  74  98  73  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM               105  70 102  70  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                 104  77 101  76  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX          102  74  99  73  /   0  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          97  71  95  69  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                  100  69  98  68  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   94  59  92  58  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   101  74  98  73  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                 100  75  99  73  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                   105  74 103  73  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/72

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270
FXUS64 KMAF 010524
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1224 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions through the period. Modest south winds with
occasional gusts can also be expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Not much change to the current forecast.  WV shows a broad,
flat/elongated upper ridge extending from the Pacific to the
Atlantic and covering the southern CONUS, which will result in
fairly benign wx over the next week, aside from isolated
afternoon/evening convection in the Davis Mtns.

Labor Day looks to be the warmest day this forecast, as the ridge
begins building/shifting east towards the Gulf Coast.  Models
maximize 500-1000mb thicknesses by 00Z Tuesday as the ridge passes
over, resulting in H85 temps over the Permian basin in excess of 30C,
for widespread triple-digit temps across West Texas/SE NM.  The NAM
usually handles this pretty well, but today it is an outlier, and
coldest of all models over the next couple of days.  Thus, we`ve
cottoned onto the GFS/ECMWF in the short-term, which are in better
agreement/in line w/the ARW/NMM/CMC.  Ridge keeps building into the
SE CONUS thru at least Thursday, then begins shifting back west.
However, models forecast a much weaker ridge as it returns by the
weekend, keeping temps each day closer to (but still above) normal.
Both the GFS and ECMWF even try to bring a cold front into the area
Saturday night, and a chance of convection may need to be added
later in the week if this pans out.  For temps in the extended, the
ECMWF is the coolest, and we`ve opted to lean towards the GFS, which
the DGEX and CMC are in better agreement with.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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960
FXUS64 KMAF 312351
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
651 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 01/00Z forecast discussion below.  Thanks.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail UFN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Not much change to the current forecast.  WV shows a broad,
flat/elongated upper ridge extending from the Pacific to the
Atlantic and covering the southern CONUS, which will result in
fairly benign wx over the next week, aside from isolated
afternoon/evening convection in the Davis Mtns.

Labor Day looks to be the warmest day this forecast, as the ridge
begins building/shifting east towards the Gulf Coast.  Models
maximize 500-1000mb thicknesses by 00Z Tuesday as the ridge passes
over, resulting in H85 temps over the Permian basin in excess of 30C,
for widespread triple-digit temps across West Texas/SE NM.  The NAM
usually handles this pretty well, but today it is an outlier, and
coldest of all models over the next couple of days.  Thus, we`ve
cottoned onto the GFS/ECMWF in the short-term, which are in better
agreement/in line w/the ARW/NMM/CMC.  Ridge keeps building into the
SE CONUS thru at least Thursday, then begins shifting back west.
However, models forecast a much weaker ridge as it returns by the
weekend, keeping temps each day closer to (but still above) normal.
Both the GFS and ECMWF even try to bring a cold front into the area
Saturday night, and a chance of convection may need to be added
later in the week if this pans out.  For temps in the extended, the
ECMWF is the coolest, and we`ve opted to lean towards the GFS, which
the DGEX and CMC are in better agreement with.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70

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286
FXUS64 KMAF 311930
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
230 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Not much change to the current forecast.  WV shows a broad,
flat/elongated upper ridge extending from the Pacific to the
Atlantic and covering the southern CONUS, which will result in
fairly benign wx over the next week, aside from isolated
afternoon/evening convection in the Davis Mtns.

Labor Day looks to be the warmest day this forecast, as the ridge
begins building/shifting east towards the Gulf Coast.  Models
maximize 500-1000mb thicknesses by 00Z Tuesday as the ridge passes
over, resulting in H85 temps over the Permian basin in excess of 30C,
for widespread triple-digit temps across West Texas/SE NM.  The NAM
usually handles this pretty well, but today it is an outlier, and
coldest of all models over the next couple of days.  Thus, we`ve
cottoned onto the GFS/ECMWF in the short-term, which are in better
agreement/in line w/the ARW/NMM/CMC.  Ridge keeps building into the
SE CONUS thru at least Thursday, then begins shifting back west.
However, models forecast a much weaker ridge as it returns by the
weekend, keeping temps each day closer to (but still above) normal.
Both the GFS and ECMWF even try to bring a cold front into the area
Saturday night, and a chance of convection may need to be added
later in the week if this pans out.  For temps in the extended, the
ECMWF is the coolest, and we`ve opted to lean towards the GFS, which
the DGEX and CMC are in better agreement with.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 73 101  74  99  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              74 102  75  99  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                71 103  72 103  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  77 101  76  99  /  10   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           75 103  76 100  /   0   0  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          75  98  73  95  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   69 102  69 100  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   59  94  61  93  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    74 102  76  99  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  74 101  76 100  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    74 105  76 104  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/44

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035
FXUS64 KMAF 311704
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1204 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions under mostly clear skies are expected the next
24 hours. Winds will generally be southeast at 5 to 15 mph
and gusty at times.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light south winds through the TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The subtropical ridge remains over the southern portion of the
country this morning extending from the Pacific to the Atlantic. An
upper trough extending down across the Northern Rockies will slowly
swing east across the plains with the upper ridge actually
strengthening from CA to GA early in the week.  Another upper trough
moving onto the West Coast by midweek will begin to displace the
center of the ridge to the east but not be able to dislodge it.

Expect to see hot days and warm nights through Tuesday.  The 850mb
thermal ridge will be centered over the western CWA with temps of
28-31C/82-88F producing surface temps near or over the Century Mark
for most of the region.  Monday looks to be the hottest day of the
week with temps slowly beginning to decrease by midweek returning to
near normal by the weekend.

The wind will remain southerly most of the week but models do try to
briefly bring a weak front/wind shift into the northern CWA... not
expecting much if any cooling with it.  Southerly flow will help
keep the lower levels moist with dewpts in the 50s and 60s.  Did
have a few storms skirt the eastern CWA yesterday but expecting even
less coverage today.  Overall rain chances on the decrease... may be
a few storms over the mtns as good moisture... daytime heating and
orographic lift combine.  Most of the region will see no rain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 99  71 100  72  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              99  74 101  76  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM               103  69 104  68  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                 102  76 102  79  /  10  10   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX          100  72 101  72  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          94  70  95  70  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   99  67 100  66  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   92  60  93  61  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    99  73 100  74  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  99  73 100  75  /  10  10   0   0
WINK TX                   103  72 104  74  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/72

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092
FXUS64 KMAF 311117
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
617 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light south winds through the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The subtropical ridge remains over the southern portion of the
country this morning extending from the Pacific to the Atlantic. An
upper trough extending down across the Northern Rockies will slowly
swing east across the plains with the upper ridge actually
strengthening from CA to GA early in the week.  Another upper trough
moving onto the West Coast by midweek will begin to displace the
center of the ridge to the east but not be able to dislodge it.

Expect to see hot days and warm nights through Tuesday.  The 850mb
thermal ridge will be centered over the western CWA with temps of
28-31C/82-88F producing surface temps near or over the Century Mark
for most of the region.  Monday looks to be the hottest day of the
week with temps slowly beginning to decrease by midweek returning to
near normal by the weekend.

The wind will remain southerly most of the week but models do try to
briefly bring a weak front/wind shift into the northern CWA... not
expecting much if any cooling with it.  Southerly flow will help
keep the lower levels moist with dewpts in the 50s and 60s.  Did
have a few storms skirt the eastern CWA yesterday but expecting even
less coverage today.  Overall rain chances on the decrease... may be
a few storms over the mtns as good moisture... daytime heating and
orographic lift combine.  Most of the region will see no rain.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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100
FXUS64 KMAF 310833
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
333 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
The subtropical ridge remains over the southern portion of the
country this morning extending from the Pacific to the Atlantic. An
upper trough extending down across the Northern Rockies will slowly
swing east across the plains with the upper ridge actually
strengthening from CA to GA early in the week.  Another upper trough
moving onto the West Coast by midweek will begin to displace the
center of the ridge to the east but not be able to dislodge it.

Expect to see hot days and warm nights through Tuesday.  The 850mb
thermal ridge will be centered over the western CWA with temps of
28-31C/82-88F producing surface temps near or over the Century Mark
for most of the region.  Monday looks to be the hottest day of the
week with temps slowly beginning to decrease by midweek returning to
near normal by the weekend.

The wind will remain southerly most of the week but models do try to
briefly bring a weak front/wind shift into the northern CWA... not
expecting much if any cooling with it.  Southerly flow will help
keep the lower levels moist with dewpts in the 50s and 60s.  Did
have a few storms skirt the eastern CWA yesterday but expecting even
less coverage today.  Overall rain chances on the decrease... may be
a few storms over the mtns as good moisture... daytime heating and
orographic lift combine.  Most of the region will see no rain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 99  71 100  72  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              99  74 101  76  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM               103  69 104  68  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                 102  76 102  79  /  10  10   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX          100  72 101  72  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          94  70  95  70  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   99  67 100  66  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   92  60  93  61  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    99  73 100  74  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  99  73 100  75  /  10  10   0   0
WINK TX                   103  72 104  74  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/72

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287
FXUS64 KMAF 310200
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
900 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.UPDATE...

Please see the evening forecast update below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Convection down across the lower Trans Pecos has diminished with
loss of sensible heating. It`s possible, however, that one or two
more cells might pop up along an outflow boundary extending from
the Big Bend east across the Edwards Plateau. As a result, we`ve
maintained low order PoPs across the lower Trans Pecos through
06Z. Elsewhere PoPs have been lowered and sensible weather has
been removed.

The ongoing forecast looks pretty good overall and only minor
additional tweaks were made. Did tweak Td grids to reflect a trend
from current observations, with secondary and tertiary grids
modified as a result. Sky grids look really good and T trends
likewise look fine.

Incoming guidance and model data continue to portray a warmup
Sunday and Labor Day. It`s possible that many areas south of I-20
and away from the mountains will see temperatures reach or exceed
the century mark Monday. Isolated diurnal thunderstorms remain in
the forecast through Labor Day as well; however, surface Tds will
need to increase a bit to match the increase in midlevel lapse
rates for us to increase PoPs more than are currently forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 71 100  70 101  /   0  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              75  99  76 101  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                70 103  69 104  /   0  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  77  99  77 100  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           72 100  72 101  /   0  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          67  94  70  95  /   0  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   66  99  67 100  /   0  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   57  92  59  93  /   0  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    74  99  74 100  /   0  10  10   0
ODESSA TX                  75  99  73 100  /   0  10  10   0
WINK TX                    73 103  73 104  /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27/70

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454
FXUS64 KMAF 302318
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
618 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions with light southeast winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 201 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Lower surface dewpoints have materialized in areas n of I-20 favoring
warmer temps today than yesterday. Isold tstms will still be possible
this PM though across the Trans Pecos and far srn PB where low level
mstr is better. 85h temps will start to increase Sunday underneath
building 5h heights. This trend will generally continue into Tuesday.
85h and 7h temps peak on Monday, U20s-L30C and 13-15C, respectively.
Even though the PB has lost about 17 minutes of sunlight over the
last 2 weeks we won`t be able to tell it on Monday when high temps
in U90s-L100s will be fairly widespread. MAV/ECS MOS data are more
in line with the 85h temps and will side toward this warmer
guidance thru Monday. Isold tstms will continue to occur INVOF
Davis Mtns Sunday-Tuesday per steepening of the 7h-5h LR/s and
strong surface based heating. Thereafter the models are in
agreement that the mid level ridge will be n-ne of the CWFA. This
will favor a deeper ely component and the low level thermal ridge
will break down and move w signaling cooler temps from mid week
into next weekend.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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492
FXUS64 KMAF 301901
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
201 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Lower surface dewpoints have materialized in areas n of I-20 favoring
warmer temps today than yesterday. Isold tstms will still be possible
this PM though across the Trans Pecos and far srn PB where low level
mstr is better. 85h temps will start to increase Sunday underneath
building 5h heights. This trend will generally continue into Tuesday.
85h and 7h temps peak on Monday, U20s-L30C and 13-15C, respectively.
Even though the PB has lost about 17 minutes of sunlight over the
last 2 weeks we won`t be able to tell it on Monday when high temps
in U90s-L100s will be fairly widespread. MAV/ECS MOS data are more
in line with the 85h temps and will side toward this warmer
guidance thru Monday. Isold tstms will continue to occur INVOF
Davis Mtns Sunday-Tuesday per steepening of the 7h-5h LR/s and
strong surface based heating. Thereafter the models are in
agreement that the mid level ridge will be n-ne of the CWFA. This
will favor a deeper ely component and the low level thermal ridge
will break down and move w signaling cooler temps from mid week
into next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 71 100  70 101  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              75  99  76 101  /  10   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                70 103  69 104  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  77  99  77 100  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           72 100  72 101  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          67  94  70  95  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   66  99  67 100  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   57  92  59  93  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    74  99  74 100  /  10  10  10   0
ODESSA TX                  75  99  73 100  /  10  10  10   0
WINK TX                    73 103  73 104  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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632
FXUS64 KMAF 301628
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1128 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will persist next 24 hours, on the NE periphery of
the upper ridge. Forecast soundings suggest a fairly extensive cu
field developing this afternoon and Sunday, w/bases 5-8 kft agl.
Otherwise, light return flow continues, w/slim chances of convection.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The weather pattern unfortunately will be dominated by upper
level ridging the next several days. Separate high centers over
both coasts will be bridged with ridging across the southwest and
Gulf Coast and the associated subsidence will bring hot and dry
conditions. We will see temperatures slowly climb through
Monday before an 850mb high over the Gulf Coast builds back into
west Texas advecting cooler gulf air and bringing highs back down
to near normal. In persistent weather patterns, it is difficult to
beat guidance so this forecast has stayed close to MEX guidance
the 7 day forecast period. Dewpoints will be high enough that we
could see some isolated afternoon convection develop each day,
especially in the higher elevations.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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776
FXUS64 KMAF 301132
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
632 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with afternoon cu expected. Light wind this morning will
become SE around 10kts by afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The weather pattern unfortunately will be dominated by upper
level ridging the next several days. Separate high centers over
both coasts will be bridged with ridging across the southwest and
Gulf Coast and the associated subsidence will bring hot and dry
conditions. We will see temperatures slowly climb through
Monday before an 850mb high over the Gulf Coast builds back into
west Texas advecting cooler gulf air and bringing highs back down
to near normal. In persistent weather patterns, it is difficult to
beat guidance so this forecast has stayed close to MEX guidance
the 7 day forecast period. Dewpoints will be high enough that we
could see some isolated afternoon convection develop each day,
especially in the higher elevations.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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217
FXUS64 KMAF 300936
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
436 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
The weather pattern unfortunately will be dominated by upper
level ridging the next several days. Separate high centers over
both coasts will be bridged with ridging across the southwest and
Gulf Coast and the associated subsidence will bring hot and dry
conditions. We will see temperatures slowly climb through
Monday before an 850mb high over the Gulf Coast builds back into
west Texas advecting cooler gulf air and bringing highs back down
to near normal. In persistent weather patterns, it is difficult to
beat guidance so this forecast has stayed close to MEX guidance
the 7 day forecast period. Dewpoints will be high enough that we
could see some isolated afternoon convection develop each day,
especially in the higher elevations.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 95  70  98  71  /   0   0  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              95  72  98  72  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                97  70 101  69  /   0   0  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  96  73  98  73  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           96  71  99  72  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          89  65  93  66  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   94  68  98  68  /   0   0  10  10
MARFA TX                   88  61  91  62  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    96  71  98  72  /   0   0  10  10
ODESSA TX                  96  72  98  72  /   0   0  10  10
WINK TX                    99  72 102  73  /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

72/10

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255
FXUS64 KMAF 300541
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1241 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR... few clouds overnight with afternoon cu expected. Wind will
remain out of the SE generally 10kts or less.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 851 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014/

UPDATE...

See updated forecast discussion below.

DISCUSSION...

Convection has waned along a sub-synoptic boundary stretching from
the Big Bend eastward to the Edwards Plateau. As such have removed
the bulk of PoPs from the overnight forecast. We`ll continue to
see a few cells over the lower Trans Pecos for the next hour or so,
however.

Wouldn`t surprise me if patchy fog were to develop after midnight
over portions of the eastern Permian Basin. However, confidence in
significant coverage is low enough to preclude mention in the
forecast. Will have to monitor, though.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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779
FXUS64 KMAF 300151
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
851 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.UPDATE...

See updated forecast discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Convection has waned along a sub-synoptic boundary stretching from
the Big Bend eastward to the Edwards Plateau. As such have removed
the bulk of PoPs from the overnight forecast. We`ll continue to
see a few cells over the lower Trans Pecos for the next hour or so,
however.

Wouldn`t surprise me if patchy fog were to develop after midnight
over portions of the eastern Permian Basin. However, confidence in
significant coverage is low enough to preclude mention in the
forecast. Will have to monitor, though.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 70  95  71  97  /  20  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              73  98  75  98  /  30  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                69  96  71 101  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  77 101  77 101  /  20  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           71  95  72  96  /  20  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          66  92  67  93  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   65  94  67  97  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   59  87  59  87  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    72  96  74  96  /  20  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  72  96  74  95  /  20  10  10  10
WINK TX                    72  99  74 101  /  10  10   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70/27

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852
FXUS64 KMAF 292318
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
618 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions to prevail through Saturday. Isolated storms across
the PB and lower Trans Pecos will dissipate after sunset.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A weak boundary is near a line from CNM to MAF to south of BPG and
with clouds across the nrn CWFA the 18Z temps were about 7-10
degrees cooler than this time yesterday. Visible imagery does show
clouds dissipating so temps will catch up some, still have lowered
highs temps a few degrees across the n. Also have decided to tighten
up PoP gradient on wrn edge. Combination of boundary, better low
level mstr, and SB instability does favor best PoPs across the far
e-se CWFA and have left low end scattered 30% PoPs there for this
PM. Drier air will be deeper Sat as low dwpnt air across NM moves
se into parts of the CWFA. SB LI`s increase to -1 to zero at 21Z
Sat and with 85h temps around 26-28C it will mostly be on the hot
side with high temps running about 3-5 degrees above normal. The
exception will be in the Davis Mtns where dwpnts in the M50s and
7h-5h LR/s near 6.5 c/km warrant at least isold PoPs. Low level
mstr will edge back up with dwpnts in the mid/upper 50s
Sunday/Monday as se surface winds persist. CINH looks to increase
though with 7h temps increasing to around 12C Sunday and 13-14C
Monday. Isold PoPs still look to be warranted in the Davis Mtns
though. 85h temps will increase to around 27C in the PB to 31C in
SE NM, thus it will be warmer still. There will be little change
Tue, but LI`s will slowly becoming more negative and ECMWF does
initiate small area of storms across NW PB/SE NM Tue PM within a
very minor 5h mid level theta-e ridge axis. Mid level ridging is
well in place Wed with an e-se mid level flow. This will cool 7h
temps a few degrees and isold -SHRA will be possible. In lieu of
"shotgun" low PoPs will keep fcst dry Wed. Thur/Fri the chance of
precip may be just a little better across the w as mid level mstr
will have had a better chance to move into higher terrain of the
Trans Pecos. High temps will cool a few degrees with the deeper se
flow.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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758
FXUS64 KMAF 291924
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
224 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A weak boundary is near a line from CNM to MAF to south of BPG and
with clouds across the nrn CWFA the 18Z temps were about 7-10
degrees cooler than this time yesterday. Visible imagery does show
clouds dissipating so temps will catch up some, still have lowered
highs temps a few degrees across the n. Also have decided to tighten
up PoP gradient on wrn edge. Combination of boundary, better low
level mstr, and SB instability does favor best PoPs across the far
e-se CWFA and have left low end scattered 30% PoPs there for this
PM. Drier air will be deeper Sat as low dwpnt air across NM moves
se into parts of the CWFA. SB LI`s increase to -1 to zero at 21Z
Sat and with 85h temps around 26-28C it will mostly be on the hot
side with high temps running about 3-5 degrees above normal. The
exception will be in the Davis Mtns where dwpnts in the M50s and
7h-5h LR/s near 6.5 c/km warrant at least isold PoPs. Low level
mstr will edge back up with dwpnts in the mid/upper 50s
Sunday/Monday as se surface winds persist. CINH looks to increase
though with 7h temps increasing to around 12C Sunday and 13-14C
Monday. Isold PoPs still look to be warranted in the Davis Mtns
though. 85h temps will increase to around 27C in the PB to 31C in
SE NM, thus it will be warmer still. There will be little change
Tue, but LI`s will slowly becoming more negative and ECMWF does
initiate small area of storms across NW PB/SE NM Tue PM within a
very minor 5h mid level theta-e ridge axis. Mid level ridging is
well in place Wed with an e-se mid level flow. This will cool 7h
temps a few degrees and isold -SHRA will be possible. In lieu of
"shotgun" low PoPs will keep fcst dry Wed. Thur/Fri the chance of
precip may be just a little better across the w as mid level mstr
will have had a better chance to move into higher terrain of the
Trans Pecos. High temps will cool a few degrees with the deeper se
flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 70  95  71  97  /  20  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              73  98  75  98  /  30  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                69  96  71 101  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  77 101  77 101  /  20  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           71  95  72  96  /  20  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          66  92  67  93  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   65  94  67  97  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   59  87  59  87  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    72  96  74  96  /  20  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  72  96  74  95  /  20  10  10  10
WINK TX                    72  99  74 101  /  10  10   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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436
FXUS64 KMAF 291859
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
159 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A weak boundary is near a line from CNM to MAF to south of BPG and
with clouds across the nrn CWFA the 18Z temps were about 7-10
degrees cooler than this time yesterday. Visible imagery does show
clouds dissipating so temps will catch up some, still have lowered
highs temps a few degrees across the n. Also have decided to tighten
up PoP gradient on wrn edge. Combination of boundary, better low
level mstr, and SB instability does favor best PoPs across the far
e-se CWFA and have left scattered 30-40% PoPs there for this PM.
Drier air will be deeper Sat as low dwpnt air across NM moves se
into parts of the CWFA. SB LI`s increase to -1 to zero at 21Z Sat
and with 85h temps around 26-28C it will mostly be on the hot side
with high temps running about 3-5 degrees above normal. The
exception will be in the Davis Mtns where dwpnts in the M50s and
7h-5h LR/s near 6.5 c/km warrant at least isold PoPs. Low level mstr
will edge back up with dwpnts in the mid/upper 50s Sunday/Monday as se
surface winds persist. CINH looks to increase though with 7h temps
increasing to around 12C Sunday and 13-14C Monday. Isold PoPs still
look to be warranted in the Davis Mtns though. 85h temps will
increase to around 27C in the PB to 31C in SE NM, thus it will be
warmer still. There will be little change Tue, but LI`s will slowly
becoming more negative and ECMWF does initiate small area of storms
across NW PB/SE NM Tue PM within a very minor 5h mid level theta-e
ridge axis. Mid level ridging is well in place Wed with an e-se mid
level flow. This will cool 7h temps a few degrees and isold -SHRA
will be possible. In lieu of "shotgun" low PoPs will keep fcst dry
Wed. Thur/Fri the chance of precip may be just a little better
across the w as mid level mstr will have had a better chance to move
into higher terrain of the Trans

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 70  95  71  97  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              73  98  75  98  /  40  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                69  96  71 101  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  77 101  77 101  /  20  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           71  95  72  96  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          66  92  67  93  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   65  94  67  97  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   59  87  59  87  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    72  96  74  96  /  20  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  72  96  74  95  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                    72  99  74 101  /  10  10   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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352
FXUS64 KMAF 291636
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1136 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Widespread cu fields
are expected this afternoon and near the end of the forecast
period, w/bases 4.5-7 kft agl. Little convection is expected in
the wake of the exiting upper trough.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
Overall VFR expected today but could see some brief stratus/fog
near HOB before 14z. May have a few afternoon storms mainly near
MAF and FST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A deep upper level low has moved into the Central Plains early
this morning. WV imagery shows very dry air moving into the
backside of the trough over New Mexico and far west Texas keeping
convection today primarily over the eastern half of the CWA. With
the best upper dynamics already pushing east the main trigger for
storms will be any remaining surface boundaries and afternoon
heating.

The trough will weaken as it moves east allowing highs over the
east and west coasts to bridge together across Texas. This will
shut down rain chances after tomorrow though 500mb heights will
not be very high, so would not be surprised to see isolated
afternoon storms develop in the higher elevations. Temperatures
will increase a few degrees but should remain below triple digits
for most locations. Early next week a weak trough moves across the
northern tier of states weakening the ridge slightly and allowing
highs to ease back to near normal.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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256
FXUS64 KMAF 291121
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
621 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Overall VFR expected today but could see some brief stratus/fog
near HOB before 14z. May have a few afternoon storms mainly near
MAF and FST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A deep upper level low has moved into the Central Plains early
this morning. WV imagery shows very dry air moving into the
backside of the trough over New Mexico and far west Texas keeping
convection today primarily over the eastern half of the CWA. With
the best upper dynamics already pushing east the main trigger for
storms will be any remaining surface boundaries and afternoon
heating.

The trough will weaken as it moves east allowing highs over the
east and west coasts to bridge together across Texas. This will
shut down rain chances after tomorrow though 500mb heights will
not be very high, so would not be surprised to see isolated
afternoon storms develop in the higher elevations. Temperatures
will increase a few degrees but should remain below triple digits
for most locations. Early next week a weak trough moves across the
northern tier of states weakening the ridge slightly and allowing
highs to ease back to near normal.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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745
FXUS64 KMAF 290953
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
453 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A deep upper level low has moved into the Central Plains early
this morning. WV imagery shows very dry air moving into the
backside of the trough over New Mexico and far west Texas keeping
convection today primarily over the eastern half of the CWA. With
the best upper dynamics already pushing east the main trigger for
storms will be any remaining surface boundaries and afternoon
heating.

The trough will weaken as it moves east allowing highs over the
east and west coasts to bridge together across Texas. This will
shut down rain chances after tomorrow though 500mb heights will
not be very high, so would not be surprised to see isolated
afternoon storms develop in the higher elevations. Temperatures
will increase a few degrees but should remain below triple digits
for most locations. Early next week a weak trough moves across the
northern tier of states weakening the ridge slightly and allowing
highs to ease back to near normal.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 95  70  95  71  /  20  20  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              94  71  96  72  /  40  40  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                96  70  97  70  /  10   0  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  98  74  96  73  /  30  30  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           97  71  96  71  /  30  30  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          88  66  89  64  /  10   0  10  10
HOBBS NM                   94  69  95  68  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   89  62  89  61  /  20  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    95  71  96  72  /  30  30  10  10
ODESSA TX                  95  72  96  72  /  30  30  10  10
WINK TX                   100  73  99  73  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

72/10

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586
FXUS64 KMAF 290539
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1239 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Storms over the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos will continue to
decline over the next few hours as they move east. Only included
mention of TSRA at FST. Otherwise VFR with generally light wind
overnight.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 211 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Main focus for this forecast will be the chances for rain later this
evening through Friday night as an upper trough will be making its
way into the central plains this afternoon.  Around the base of the
upper trough will be some shortwave troughs which will provide enough lift
to generate thunderstorms.  Thinking is that the majority of the
precipitation late this afternoon will reside along and east of a
weak surface trough that extends through the Permian Basin southwest
into the Davis Mountains.  There will be an increase in instability
with the amount of moisture in place.  This mornings sounding at MAF
showed 1.50 inches of Precipitable Water which is above normal for
this time of year. With the lack of shear across the area, there
will less of a chance for more organized storms. The main concern
will be the potential for heavy rain that will lead to a threat of
localized flash flooding and downburst winds. As a low level jet
develops, it will provide enough support for thunderstorms to
continue into the overnight hours with most models show precip
over the Permian Basin at 06Z. As the upper trough progresses east
out of the plains, support for thunderstorm activity will diminish
from east to west with lingering showers and thunderstorms Friday
evening across the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos.

Heading into the weekend and early next week the upper ridge begins
to take hold again.  Beginning this weekend, we will see
temperatures in the mid 90s and a gradual increase to the upper 90s
by Monday.  After the rain chances exit with the passing of the
upper trough, there will be less chances of rain for any part of
next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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675
FXUS64 KMAF 282317
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
617 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
Scattered storms will continue across the Permian Basin and Trans
Pecos through the evening. Have included tempos for this at KMAF
and KFST. Main threat will be gusty winds and lowered visibility
in and near storms. Will also need to monitor for more storm
development overnight across the area as the upper trough axis
moves across the Panhandle. Otherwise expect VFR conditions with
more isolated storms possible Friday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 211 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Main focus for this forecast will be the chances for rain later this
evening through Friday night as an upper trough will be making its
way into the central plains this afternoon.  Around the base of the
upper trough will be some shortwave troughs which will provide enough lift
to generate thunderstorms.  Thinking is that the majority of the
precipitation late this afternoon will reside along and east of a
weak surface trough that extends through the Permian Basin southwest
into the Davis Mountains.  There will be an increase in instability
with the amount of moisture in place.  This mornings sounding at MAF
showed 1.50 inches of Precipitable Water which is above normal for
this time of year. With the lack of shear across the area, there
will less of a chance for more organized storms. The main concern
will be the potential for heavy rain that will lead to a threat of
localized flash flooding and downburst winds. As a low level jet
develops, it will provide enough support for thunderstorms to
continue into the overnight hours with most models show precip
over the Permian Basin at 06Z. As the upper trough progresses east
out of the plains, support for thunderstorm activity will diminish
from east to west with lingering showers and thunderstorms Friday
evening across the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos.

Heading into the weekend and early next week the upper ridge begins
to take hold again.  Beginning this weekend, we will see
temperatures in the mid 90s and a gradual increase to the upper 90s
by Monday.  After the rain chances exit with the passing of the
upper trough, there will be less chances of rain for any part of
next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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523
FXUS64 KMAF 281911
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
211 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Main focus for this forecast will be the chances for rain later this
evening through Friday night as an upper trough will be making its
way into the central plains this afternoon.  Around the base of the
upper trough will be some shortwave troughs which will provide enough lift
to generate thunderstorms.  Thinking is that the majority of the
precipitation late this afternoon will reside along and east of a
weak surface trough that extends through the Permian Basin southwest
into the Davis Mountains.  There will be an increase in instability
with the amount of moisture in place.  This mornings sounding at MAF
showed 1.50 inches of Precipitable Water which is above normal for
this time of year. With the lack of shear across the area, there
will less of a chance for more organized storms. The main concern
will be the potential for heavy rain that will lead to a threat of
localized flash flooding and downburst winds. As a low level jet
develops, it will provide enough support for thunderstorms to
continue into the overnight hours with most models show precip
over the Permian Basin at 06Z. As the upper trough progresses east
out of the plains, support for thunderstorm activity will diminish
from east to west with lingering showers and thunderstorms Friday
evening across the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos.

Heading into the weekend and early next week the upper ridge begins
to take hold again.  Beginning this weekend, we will see
temperatures in the mid 90s and a gradual increase to the upper 90s
by Monday.  After the rain chances exit with the passing of the
upper trough, there will be less chances of rain for any part of
next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 72  96  72  95  /  30  20  20  10
BIG SPRING TX              75  97  74  97  /  40  30  30  20
CARLSBAD NM                69  99  70 100  /  20  20  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  79 101  77 100  /  20  20  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           73  97  71  94  /  30  20  20  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          66  91  67  90  /  20  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   68  96  69  97  /  30  20  10  10
MARFA TX                   59  88  60  86  /  30  20  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    73  96  74  96  /  30  20  20  10
ODESSA TX                  73  95  73  95  /  30  20  20  10
WINK TX                    74 100  73  99  /  30  20  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/06

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656
FXUS64 KMAF 281706
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1206 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Visible sat shows a theta-e ridge extending from the Big Bend
thru the upper CO River valley, while aloft, WV imagery shows the
upper trough moving into NE CO. Mesoanalysis still has areas east
of the Pecos capped, but expect things to destabilize quickly once
this erodes. Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu field by
or shortly after issuance time, w/bases 6-7 kft agl. Short term
models develop a line of convection early this afternoon in an
area of large-scale ascent ahead of the trough, and a second line
as the trough axis moves thru overnight. Expect VFR conditions
throughout the forecast period, except perhaps in areas of heavy
rainfall.  Otherwise, light return flow will continue next 24
hours, w/another widespread cu field developing near the end of
the forecast period, w/bases 5-8 kft agl.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
TS will develop this afternoon and evening with daytime heating.
Exactly where they develop will depend on the location of surface
boundaries so will not include TS at any TAF location at this
time. VFR conditions and light winds will prevail the next 24
hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A well defined upper low, currently seen on wv satellite imagery
spinning over SE WY tonight, will continue its eastward progression
toward the Plains today as Pacific moisture continues to stream
across the region. A series of shortwaves look to round the base
of the upper low and provide upper level forcing for ascent to
help generate thunderstorms across portions of the region today
and Friday, especially given the amount of available moisture.
Expect the majority of activity to develop after 18Z today
along/just east of a surface trough as the bulk of upper forcing
arrives. Best chances will extend from across the Permian Basin
southwest through the Trans Pecos into the Davis Mountain region.
Activity may continue overnight with continued lift, particularly
across the Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos where the LLJ will
likely aide in sustaining convection. Model guidance continues to
suggest above normal PWs (approaching 1.5-1.6 inches) today, so
the potential for heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding
remains through late tonight. Friday, upper forcing and best
moisture shifts east, decreasing rain chances from west to east.
Kept mention of thunderstorms in eastern zones through late Friday
night. Temperatures will be a couple of degrees cooler today and
tomorrow due to expected rainfall and cloud cover.

Not much change to the forecast package beyond Friday with the
upper ridge progged to build back over the region through the
weekend. Temperatures will gradually warm headed into next week with
highs generally in the upper 90s to near 100 by Monday. Beyond
Friday, not really seeing a good chance for rain anywhere across our
CWA so the forecast will remain dry during this time.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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235
FXUS64 KMAF 281100
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
600 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
TS will develop this afternoon and evening with daytime heating.
Exactly where they develop will depend on the location of surface
boundaries so will not include TS at any TAF location at this
time. VFR conditions and light winds will prevail the next 24
hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A well defined upper low, currently seen on wv satellite imagery
spinning over SE WY tonight, will continue its eastward progression
toward the Plains today as Pacific moisture continues to stream
across the region. A series of shortwaves look to round the base
of the upper low and provide upper level forcing for ascent to
help generate thunderstorms across portions of the region today
and Friday, especially given the amount of available moisture.
Expect the majority of activity to develop after 18Z today
along/just east of a surface trough as the bulk of upper forcing
arrives. Best chances will extend from across the Permian Basin
southwest through the Trans Pecos into the Davis Mountain region.
Activity may continue overnight with continued lift, particularly
across the Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos where the LLJ will
likely aide in sustaining convection. Model guidance continues to
suggest above normal PWs (approaching 1.5-1.6 inches) today, so
the potential for heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding
remains through late tonight. Friday, upper forcing and best
moisture shifts east, decreasing rain chances from west to east.
Kept mention of thunderstorms in eastern zones through late Friday
night. Temperatures will be a couple of degrees cooler today and
tomorrow due to expected rainfall and cloud cover.

Not much change to the forecast package beyond Friday with the
upper ridge progged to build back over the region through the
weekend. Temperatures will gradually warm headed into next week with
highs generally in the upper 90s to near 100 by Monday. Beyond
Friday, not really seeing a good chance for rain anywhere across our
CWA so the forecast will remain dry during this time.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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052
FXUS64 KMAF 280855
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
355 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A well defined upper low, currently seen on wv satellite imagery
spinning over SE WY tonight, will continue its eastward progression
toward the Plains today as Pacific moisture continues to stream
across the region. A series of shortwaves look to round the base
of the upper low and provide upper level forcing for ascent to
help generate thunderstorms across portions of the region today
and Friday, especially given the amount of available moisture.
Expect the majority of activity to develop after 18Z today
along/just east of a surface trough as the bulk of upper forcing
arrives. Best chances will extend from across the Permian Basin
southwest through the Trans Pecos into the Davis Mountain region.
Activity may continue overnight with continued lift, particularly
across the Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos where the LLJ will
likely aide in sustaining convection. Model guidance continues to
suggest above normal PWs (approaching 1.5-1.6 inches) today, so
the potential for heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding
remains through late tonight. Friday, upper forcing and best
moisture shifts east, decreasing rain chances from west to east.
Kept mention of thunderstorms in eastern zones through late Friday
night. Temperatures will be a couple of degrees cooler today and
tomorrow due to expected rainfall and cloud cover.

Not much change to the forecast package beyond Friday with the
upper ridge progged to build back over the region through the
weekend. Temperatures will gradually warm headed into next week with
highs generally in the upper 90s to near 100 by Monday. Beyond
Friday, not really seeing a good chance for rain anywhere across our
CWA so the forecast will remain dry during this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 94  69  94  70  /  40  40  30  20
BIG SPRING TX              96  73  95  73  /  40  40  30  30
CARLSBAD NM                94  69  95  69  /  20  20  20  10
DRYDEN TX                 100  76 100  75  /  30  30  30  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           95  72  95  71  /  30  30  30  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          88  66  90  66  /  20  20  10  10
HOBBS NM                   91  67  93  66  /  30  30  20  20
MARFA TX                   86  60  90  60  /  30  30  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    96  72  96  72  /  40  40  30  30
ODESSA TX                  95  72  94  72  /  40  40  30  30
WINK TX                    98  73  98  73  /  30  30  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/27

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961
FXUS64 KMAF 280538
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1238 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light winds are expected through the period.
Once again there will be scattered TS across the area this
afternoon and evening but will not put most TAF sites at this
time.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The upper ridge that has been over the area will be pushed out by an
upper trough crossing the Central Rockies and into the Central
Plains.  The trough will bring height falls overnight Wednesday and
into Thursday along with better chances of rain and slightly cooler
temperatures into the mid 90s.  Temperatures will gradually increase
after the passing of the trough and the ridge begins to influence
the area again moving into the weekend.

Similar to last night, an inverted surface trough stretching from
the Davis Mountains north through SE New Mexico will be a focus for
scattered storms this evening. Storms will mainly be across The
Guadalupe Mountains and SE New Mexico Plains as there is a plume of
moisture seen on water vapor imagery moving in from the southwest.
The passing upper trough then increases the chances across the rest
of the area on Thursday.  A front will be moving southeast across
the TX Panhandle and New Mexico on Thursday and could reach into the
Permian Basin, but not expecting it to be strong if it does move
through. Still, instability and large scale lift should be enough
to produce scattered thunderstorms. There will also be increased
moisture to tap into as PWs values will be around 1.5 inches. This
amount of moisture will lead to the potential for heavy rainfall
for parts of the Permian Basin southward to the Upper Trans Pecos
and Davis Mountains.

Friday will see lingering chances of thunderstorms as the trough
lifts out of the area.  Chances will remain mainly in the Eastern
Permian Basin and Eastern/Lower Trans Pecos.  With the ridge
building back, there does not look to be a great chance for rainfall
for the beginning of the weekend and into early next week.  The
upper 90s temperatures will also make a return by the end of the
weekend remaining several degrees above our normal high this time of
year in the lower 90s.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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336
FXUS64 KMAF 272304 AAA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
556 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across the area
through the evening hours.  Convection will still be possible across
the area through the overnight period into Thursday afternoon.
Outside of thunderstorms, VFR conditions are expected.  Winds will
remain fairly light throughout the period out of the south and west.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The upper ridge that has been over the area will be pushed out by an
upper trough crossing the Central Rockies and into the Central
Plains.  The trough will bring height falls overnight Wednesday and
into Thursday along with better chances of rain and slightly cooler
temperatures into the mid 90s.  Temperatures will gradually increase
after the passing of the trough and the ridge begins to influence
the area again moving into the weekend.

Similar to last night, an inverted surface trough stretching from
the Davis Mountains north through SE New Mexico will be a focus for
scattered storms this evening. Storms will mainly be across The
Guadalupe Mountains and SE New Mexico Plains as there is a plume of
moisture seen on water vapor imagery moving in from the southwest.
The passing upper trough then increases the chances across the rest
of the area on Thursday.  A front will be moving southeast across
the TX Panhandle and New Mexico on Thursday and could reach into the
Permian Basin, but not expecting it to be strong if it does move
through. Still, instability and large scale lift should be enough
to produce scattered thunderstorms. There will also be increased
moisture to tap into as PWs values will be around 1.5 inches. This
amount of moisture will lead to the potential for heavy rainfall
for parts of the Permian Basin southward to the Upper Trans Pecos
and Davis Mountains.

Friday will see lingering chances of thunderstorms as the trough
lifts out of the area.  Chances will remain mainly in the Eastern
Permian Basin and Eastern/Lower Trans Pecos.  With the ridge
building back, there does not look to be a great chance for rainfall
for the beginning of the weekend and into early next week.  The
upper 90s temperatures will also make a return by the end of the
weekend remaining several degrees above our normal high this time of
year in the lower 90s.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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640
FXUS64 KMAF 272050 AAA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
350 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The upper ridge that has been over the area will be pushed out by an
upper trough crossing the Central Rockies and into the Central
Plains.  The trough will bring height falls overnight Wednesday and
into Thursday along with better chances of rain and slightly cooler
temperatures into the mid 90s.  Temperatures will gradually increase
after the passing of the trough and the ridge begins to influence
the area again moving into the weekend.

Similar to last night, an inverted surface trough stretching from
the Davis Mountains north through SE New Mexico will be a focus for
scattered storms this evening. Storms will mainly be across The
Guadalupe Mountains and SE New Mexico Plains as there is a plume of
moisture seen on water vapor imagery moving in from the southwest.
The passing upper trough then increases the chances across the rest
of the area on Thursday.  A front will be moving southeast across
the TX Panhandle and New Mexico on Thursday and could reach into the
Permian Basin, but not expecting it to be strong if it does move
through. Still, instability and large scale lift should be enough
to produce scattered thunderstorms. There will also be increased
moisture to tap into as PWs values will be around 1.5 inches. This
amount of moisture will lead to the potential for heavy rainfall
for parts of the Permian Basin southward to the Upper Trans Pecos
and Davis Mountains.

Friday will see lingering chances of thunderstorms as the trough
lifts out of the area.  Chances will remain mainly in the Eastern
Permian Basin and Eastern/Lower Trans Pecos.  With the ridge
building back, there does not look to be a great chance for rainfall
for the beginning of the weekend and into early next week.  The
upper 90s temperatures will also make a return by the end of the
weekend remaining several degrees above our normal high this time of
year in the lower 90s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 72  94  70  94  /  30  40  40  30
BIG SPRING TX              75  96  74  95  /  20  40  40  30
CARLSBAD NM                71  95  69  94  /  30  30  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  77 101  77 101  /  10  20  30  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           72  96  71  95  /  20  30  30  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          66  88  65  91  /  30  30  20  10
HOBBS NM                   70  92  67  93  /  30  30  30  20
MARFA TX                   61  87  61  90  /  20  30  30  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    74  96  72  95  /  20  40  40  30
ODESSA TX                  74  94  72  94  /  20  40  40  30
WINK TX                    74  98  73  98  /  30  30  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05/06

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815
FXUS64 KMAF 271854
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
154 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
The upper ridge that has been over the area will be pushed out by an
upper trough crossing the Central Rockies and into the Central
Plains.  The trough will bring height falls overnight Wednesday and
into Thursday along with better chances of rain and slightly cooler
temperatures into the mid 90s.  Temperatures will gradually increase
after the passing of the trough and the ridge begins to influence
the area again moving into the weekend.

Similar to last night, an inverted surface trough stretching from
the Davis Mountains north through SE New Mexico will be a focus for
scattered storms this evening. Storms will mainly be across The
Guadalupe Mountains and SE New Mexico Plains as there is a plume of
moisture seen on water vapor imagery moving in from the southwest.
The passing upper trough then increases the chances across the rest
of the area on Thursday.  A front will be moving southeast across
the TX Panhandle and New Mexico on Thursday and could reach into the
Permian Basin, but not expecting it to be strong if it does move through.
Still, instability and large scale lift should be enough to produce
scattered thunderstorms.  There will also be increased moisture to
tap into as PWs values will be around 1.5 inches. This amount of
moisture will lead to the potential for heavy rainfall for parts
of the Permian Basin southward to the Upper Trans Pecos and Davis
Mountains.

Friday will see lingering chances of thunderstorms as the trough
lifts out of the area.  Chances will remain mainly in the Eastern
Permian Basin and Eastern/Lower Trans Pecos.  With the ridge
building back, there does not look to be a great chance for rainfall
for the beginning of the weekend and into early next week.  The
upper 90s temperatures will also make a return by the end of the
weekend remaining several degrees above our normal high this time of
year in the lower 90s.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 95  72  94  70  /  10  30  40  40
BIG SPRING TX              97  75  96  74  /  10  20  40  40
CARLSBAD NM                95  71  95  69  /  30  30  30  20
DRYDEN TX                 102  77 101  77  /  10  10  20  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           97  72  96  71  /  10  20  30  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          87  66  88  65  /  30  30  30  20
HOBBS NM                   93  70  92  67  /  20  30  30  30
MARFA TX                   88  61  87  61  /  10  20  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    97  74  96  72  /  10  20  40  40
ODESSA TX                  96  74  94  72  /  10  20  40  40
WINK TX                    99  74  98  73  /  20  30  30  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05/06

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433
FXUS64 KMAF 271711
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1211 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected across southeast New Mexico and
southwest Texas terminals through Thursday morning. Scattered
thunderstorms are possible mainly in the mountain areas and
adjacent plains, prompting a tempo at CNM. Elsewhere, isolated
late afternoon and evening thunderstorms are possible at area
terminals with a chance of occurrence too low to include in
upcoming TAFs. Winds will generally be less than 12 knots,
though variable and gusty winds are likely in and near any
thunderstorms that develop.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions through the period. TS will be in the area and
could affect TAF sites with variable and gusty winds, but coverage
will not be great enough to include in FM group of TAFs. Will
amend as needed with the greatest chances being between 19z-03z.

Hennig

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The upper ridge remains overhead today, extending from Mexico north
and east over the southeast ConUS. Today will be similar to
yesterday, with highs expected to climb to the mid and upper 90s and
thunderstorm chances generally confined to southeast NM and the
higher terrain regions. Meanwhile, an upper trough will approach the
Four Corners region today and on into the Plains Thursday. Height
falls/upper forcing for ascent will spread east into the area late
tonight resulting in showers and thunderstorms increasing from west
to east through Thursday afternoon/evening. Greatest forcing for ascent
will be north across the TX/OK Panhandles but it looks as though we
will get enough to warrant decent rain chances. Model guidance
continues to suggest PWs approaching 1.5-1.6 inches during the day
Thursday, generally from across the Permian Basin southwest into
the lower Trans Pecos. Therefore, the potential for a heavy rain
event remains and will continue mention flooding hazard in the
HWO.

By Friday, the upper trough will begin to lift to the northeast,
increasing subsidence and decreasing rain chances. There could be
some lingering activity over eastern zones on Friday so kept mention
of a chance of thunderstorms across these locations through Friday
night. The upper ridge will build back over the region throughout
the weekend with temperatures gradually warming to the upper 90s to
near 100 by Monday. Beyond Friday, not really seeing a good chance
for rain anywhere across our area so the forecast will remain dry
during this time.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05

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340
FXUS64 KMAF 271126
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
626 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions through the period. TS will be in the area and
could affect TAF sites with variable and gusty winds, but coverage
will not be great enough to include in FM group of TAFs. Will
amend as needed with the greatest chances being between 19z-03z.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The upper ridge remains overhead today, extending from Mexico north
and east over the southeast ConUS. Today will be similar to
yesterday, with highs expected to climb to the mid and upper 90s and
thunderstorm chances generally confined to southeast NM and the
higher terrain regions. Meanwhile, an upper trough will approach the
Four Corners region today and on into the Plains Thursday. Height
falls/upper forcing for ascent will spread east into the area late
tonight resulting in showers and thunderstorms increasing from west
to east through Thursday afternoon/evening. Greatest forcing for ascent
will be north across the TX/OK Panhandles but it looks as though we
will get enough to warrant decent rain chances. Model guidance
continues to suggest PWs approaching 1.5-1.6 inches during the day
Thursday, generally from across the Permian Basin southwest into
the lower Trans Pecos. Therefore, the potential for a heavy rain
event remains and will continue mention flooding hazard in the
HWO.

By Friday, the upper trough will begin to lift to the northeast,
increasing subsidence and decreasing rain chances. There could be
some lingering activity over eastern zones on Friday so kept mention
of a chance of thunderstorms across these locations through Friday
night. The upper ridge will build back over the region throughout
the weekend with temperatures gradually warming to the upper 90s to
near 100 by Monday. Beyond Friday, not really seeing a good chance
for rain anywhere across our area so the forecast will remain dry
during this time.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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219
FXUS64 KMAF 270858
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
358 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
The upper ridge remains overhead today, extending from Mexico north
and east over the southeast ConUS. Today will be similar to
yesterday, with highs expected to climb to the mid and upper 90s and
thunderstorm chances generally confined to southeast NM and the
higher terrain regions. Meanwhile, an upper trough will approach the
Four Corners region today and on into the Plains Thursday. Height
falls/upper forcing for ascent will spread east into the area late
tonight resulting in showers and thunderstorms increasing from west
to east through Thursday afternoon/evening. Greatest forcing for ascent
will be north across the TX/OK Panhandles but it looks as though we
will get enough to warrant decent rain chances. Model guidance
continues to suggest PWs approaching 1.5-1.6 inches during the day
Thursday, generally from across the Permian Basin southwest into
the lower Trans Pecos. Therefore, the potential for a heavy rain
event remains and will continue mention flooding hazard in the
HWO.

By Friday, the upper trough will begin to lift to the northeast,
increasing subsidence and decreasing rain chances. There could be
some lingering activity over eastern zones on Friday so kept mention
of a chance of thunderstorms across these locations through Friday
night. The upper ridge will build back over the region throughout
the weekend with temperatures gradually warming to the upper 90s to
near 100 by Monday. Beyond Friday, not really seeing a good chance
for rain anywhere across our area so the forecast will remain dry
during this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 95  72  94  69  /  10  30  40  40
BIG SPRING TX              97  74  96  73  /  10  20  40  40
CARLSBAD NM                95  71  95  68  /  30  30  30  20
DRYDEN TX                 102  76 101  76  /  10  10  20  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           97  73  96  71  /  10  20  30  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          87  66  88  65  /  30  30  30  20
HOBBS NM                   93  69  92  66  /  20  30  30  30
MARFA TX                   88  61  87  60  /  10  20  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    97  73  96  72  /  10  20  40  40
ODESSA TX                  96  73  94  71  /  10  20  40  40
WINK TX                    99  74  98  73  /  20  30  30  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/27

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014
FXUS64 KMAF 270523
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1223 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions through the period. Isolated afternoon
thunderstorms will be in the area but coverage will not be enough
to place TS in TAFs.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The persistent sub tropical ridge extends from Mexico across the
region to the Atlantic coast.  This ridge will continue the warm wx
for the area.  However an upper trough moving over the Intermountain
West will bring slightly cooler temps and an increased chance of
rain to W TX and SE NM.  As this trough swings unto the plains
Thursday the ridge will split into an east and west version with a
weakness between.  The upper ridge reestablishes itself across the
southern half of the country after the trough passes east.

Very warm temperatures have been continuing over the past week.
Normal highs for this time of year across the Permian Basin should
be in the lower 90s but we continue to have highs in the upper 90s
with highs yesterday of 100 or more at Big Spring... along the Pecos
River valley and the Rio Grande.  Models continue to struggle with
developing a possible Pacific front with the upper trough but wind
fields remain southerly so not expecting it.

An inverted surface trough extends up across the western CWA and
should help focus storm development.  Most storms tonight should be
confined to the higher elevations... however currently have a very
well developed cu field over the Permian Basin and satellite showing
some enhanced areas over the Northern Permian Basin so have added
isolated pops there.  Afternoon storms mainly over the higher
elevations expected again Wednesday.

Have been monitoring a possible heavy rain event Thursday.  Model
qpf still develops a line of storms extending from the southern CWA to
well north of the Red River will move across the area Thursday.  The
highest rain totals look to be over the northern CWA and the Davis
Mtns into Pecos County.  Yesterdays MAF soundings had PW of 1.2
inches and a few storms produced locally heavy rain.  Over an inch
of rain was measured Monday at Tatum in a short amount of time.
This mornings MAF 12z sounding PW has decreased to 1.1 inches... but
model soundings show PW increasing to 1.5 inches by Thursday so
heavy rain potential will increase.  Latest pops and qpf not enough
to warrant a Flash Flood Watch but will continue to mention flood
potential in HWO.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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976
FXUS64 KMAF 262312
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
612 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide during the next 24 hours.
Thunderstorms could affect KCNM Wednesday afternoon, but
probabilities are too low to include at this time.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The persistent sub tropical ridge extends from Mexico across the
region to the Atlantic coast.  This ridge will continue the warm wx
for the area.  However an upper trough moving over the Intermountain
West will bring slightly cooler temps and an increased chance of
rain to W TX and SE NM.  As this trough swings unto the plains
Thursday the ridge will split into an east and west version with a
weakness between.  The upper ridge reestablishes itself across the
southern half of the country after the trough passes east.

Very warm temperatures have been continuing over the past week.
Normal highs for this time of year across the Permian Basin should
be in the lower 90s but we continue to have highs in the upper 90s
with highs yesterday of 100 or more at Big Spring... along the Pecos
River valley and the Rio Grande.  Models continue to struggle with
developing a possible Pacific front with the upper trough but wind
fields remain southerly so not expecting it.

An inverted surface trough extends up across the western CWA and
should help focus storm development.  Most storms tonight should be
confined to the higher elevations... however currently have a very
well developed cu field over the Permian Basin and satellite showing
some enhanced areas over the Northern Permian Basin so have added
isolated pops there.  Afternoon storms mainly over the higher
elevations expected again Wednesday.

Have been monitoring a possible heavy rain event Thursday.  Model
qpf still develops a line of storms extending from the southern CWA to
well north of the Red River will move across the area Thursday.  The
highest rain totals look to be over the northern CWA and the Davis
Mtns into Pecos County.  Yesterdays MAF soundings had PW of 1.2
inches and a few storms produced locally heavy rain.  Over an inch
of rain was measured Monday at Tatum in a short amount of time.
This mornings MAF 12z sounding PW has decreased to 1.1 inches... but
model soundings show PW increasing to 1.5 inches by Thursday so
heavy rain potential will increase.  Latest pops and qpf not enough
to warrant a Flash Flood Watch but will continue to mention flood
potential in HWO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 72  96  71  94  /  10  10  20  40
BIG SPRING TX              73  96  72  95  /  10  10  20  40
CARLSBAD NM                69  96  70  95  /  20  30  30  30
DRYDEN TX                  75 101  74 100  /  10  10  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           70  97  72  96  /  10  10  20  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          66  87  65  87  /  30  30  30  20
HOBBS NM                   68  94  68  93  /  10  20  30  30
MARFA TX                   59  88  60  88  /  20  10  20  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    73  97  72  95  /  10  10  20  40
ODESSA TX                  73  97  72  95  /  10  10  20  40
WINK TX                    73 100  73  99  /  10  20  20  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05/72

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704
FXUS64 KMAF 261927
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
227 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
The persistent sub tropical ridge extends from Mexico across the
region to the Atlantic coast.  This ridge will continue the warm wx
for the area.  However an upper trough moving over the Intermountain
West will bring slightly cooler temps and an increased chance of
rain to W TX and SE NM.  As this trough swings unto the plains
Thursday the ridge will split into an east and west version with a
weakness between.  The upper ridge reestablishes itself across the
southern half of the country after the trough passes east.

Very warm temperatures have been continuing over the past week.
Normal highs for this time of year across the Permian Basin should
be in the lower 90s but we continue to have highs in the upper 90s
with highs yesterday of 100 or more at Big Spring... along the Pecos
River valley and the Rio Grande.  Models continue to struggle with
developing a possible Pacific front with the upper trough but wind
fields remain southerly so not expecting it.

An inverted surface trough extends up across the western CWA and
should help focus storm development.  Most storms tonight should be
confined to the higher elevations... however currently have a very
well developed cu field over the Permian Basin and satellite showing
some enhanced areas over the Northern Permian Basin so have added
isolated pops there.  Afternoon storms mainly over the higher
elevations expected again Wednesday.

Have been monitoring a possible heavy rain event Thursday.  Model
qpf still develops a line of storms extending from the southern CWA to
well north of the Red River will move across the area Thursday.  The
highest rain totals look to be over the northern CWA and the Davis
Mtns into Pecos County.  Yesterdays MAF soundings had PW of 1.2
inches and a few storms produced locally heavy rain.  Over an inch
of rain was measured Monday at Tatum in a short amount of time.
This mornings MAF 12z sounding PW has decreased to 1.1 inches... but
model soundings show PW increasing to 1.5 inches by Thursday so
heavy rain potential will increase.  Latest pops and qpf not enough
to warrant a Flash Flood Watch but will continue to mention flood
potential in HWO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 72  96  71  94  /  10  10  20  40
BIG SPRING TX              73  96  72  95  /  10  10  20  40
CARLSBAD NM                69  96  70  95  /  20  30  30  30
DRYDEN TX                  75 101  74 100  /  10  10  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           70  97  72  96  /  10  10  20  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          66  87  65  87  /  30  30  30  20
HOBBS NM                   68  94  68  93  /  10  20  30  30
MARFA TX                   59  88  60  88  /  20  10  20  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    73  97  72  95  /  10  10  20  40
ODESSA TX                  73  97  72  95  /  10  10  20  40
WINK TX                    73 100  73  99  /  10  20  20  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05/72

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567
FXUS64 KMAF 261652
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1152 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected across southeast New Mexico and
southwest Texas through Wednesday morning with winds mostly
south to southeast at less than 12 knots. Isolated thunderstorms
are possible this afternoon and into the evening mainly over
southeast New Mexico but extending into the western Permian Basin
and trans-Pecos areas, including the CNM, HOB, PEQ and INK
terminals. Variable and gusty winds are possible in any
thunderstorms that do develop. The chance for thunderstorms at
these locations is not sufficient to include in the 18Z terminal
forecasts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected at all TAF sites. Currently have light/variable winds
areawide this morning, however southeast winds will become more
established this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms will be
possible once again today but think activity should stay west of the
terminals so will not mention in TAFs just yet.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Weak southwesterly upper level flow will continue into tomorrow
bringing low rain chances and slightly above normal temperatures
to west Texas and southeast New Mexico. An upper level low over
Nevada will move east into the Central Plains by Thursday.
Increasing instability ahead of the low will increase rain chances
beginning late Wednesday with low chance PoPs across much of the
area by Thursday. There is still model disagreement as to whether
or not an associated cold front will drop this far south but
consensus seems to keep it north of our CWA. Hopefully this won`t
have too big of an impact as there should be outflow boundaries
from convection along the front along with a surface trough to
provide a low level focus for afternoon storms to develop.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler Thursday and Friday mainly
due to precip and cloud cover with a return of warmer conditions
for the weekend as the upper trough moves off to the east.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05

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181
FXUS64 KMAF 261104
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
604 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014


.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected at all TAF sites. Currently have light/variable winds
areawide this morning, however southeast winds will become more
established this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms will be
possible once again today but think activity should stay west of the
terminals so will not mention in TAFs just yet.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Weak southwesterly upper level flow will continue into tomorrow
bringing low rain chances and slightly above normal temperatures
to west Texas and southeast New Mexico. An upper level low over
Nevada will move east into the Central Plains by Thursday.
Increasing instability ahead of the low will increase rain chances
beginning late Wednesday with low chance PoPs across much of the
area by Thursday. There is still model disagreement as to whether
or not an associated cold front will drop this far south but
consensus seems to keep it north of our CWA. Hopefully this won`t
have too big of an impact as there should be outflow boundaries
from convection along the front along with a surface trough to
provide a low level focus for afternoon storms to develop.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler Thursday and Friday mainly
due to precip and cloud cover with a return of warmer conditions
for the weekend as the upper trough moves off to the east.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27

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325
FXUS64 KMAF 260935
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
435 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Weak southwesterly upper level flow will continue into tomorrow
bringing low rain chances and slightly above normal temperatures
to west Texas and southeast New Mexico. An upper level low over
Nevada will move east into the Central Plains by Thursday.
Increasing instability ahead of the low will increase rain chances
beginning late Wednesday with low chance PoPs across much of the
area by Thursday. There is still model disagreement as to whether
or not an associated cold front will drop this far south but
consensus seems to keep it north of our CWA. Hopefully this won`t
have too big of an impact as there should be outflow boundaries
from convection along the front along with a surface trough to
provide a low level focus for afternoon storms to develop.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler Thursday and Friday mainly
due to precip and cloud cover with a return of warmer conditions
for the weekend as the upper trough moves off to the east.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 96  72  96  71  /  10  10  10  20
BIG SPRING TX              97  73  96  72  /  10  10  10  20
CARLSBAD NM                96  71  95  70  /  20  20  30  30
DRYDEN TX                  99  74  98  74  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           97  72  97  72  /  10  10  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          87  66  87  65  /  20  20  30  30
HOBBS NM                   93  68  94  68  /  10  10  20  20
MARFA TX                   89  63  89  63  /  10  10  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    97  73  97  72  /  10  10  10  20
ODESSA TX                  97  73  97  72  /  10  10  10  20
WINK TX                    99  73 100  73  /  10  10  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27/10

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056
FXUS64 KMAF 260519
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1219 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014


.AVIATION...

06Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected at all TAF sites. Earlier convective activity has
diminished tonight and currently seeing some light showers on
radar near PEQ and HOB. Thunderstorms will be possible once again
Tuesday afternoon/evening but think activity should stay west of
the terminals so will not mention in TAFs just yet. Otherwise,
expect light/variable winds through morning then southeast winds
become more established for the afternoon and evening.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 204 PM CDT Mon Aug 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Started the day with an upper ridge extending from the Great Lakes
to NM and an upper trough over the Northwest U.S.  As the upper
trough swings across the west and into the central plains it will
carve out the center of the ridge by Thursday.  This trough will
bring the best chance of rain to the area this week.

Had storms yesterday over much of the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos
as a surface trough helped development.  The surface trough looks to
be farther west this afternoon which will result in fewer storms for
the Permian Basin.  Model qpf keeps most of the precip out west with
an emphasis over SE NM.  Storms over the South Plains this morning
have built back southward into the northern CWA this afternoon.
Also have storms on radar from north of Tatum to Pine Springs to the
Davis Mtns.  Have increased pops slightly tonight across the west.
Only expecting isolated storms tonight over the Permian Basin and
most of the Upper Trans Pecos.  Will have to monitor storm
development for a few strong storms and locally heavy rain... MAF
12Z sounding was unstable with a LI of nearly -6 and a PW of 1.24
inches.  Will highlight in HWO.  Afternoon storms will be mainly
over the mountains again Tuesday.

Overnight temps will remain above normal in the 70s.  Afternoon
temps will be warm with highs in the upper 90s Tuesday and
Wednesday.  Models still struggling as to whether or not to bring a
front through with the upper trough.  They do seem to show a Pacific
front Wednesday and Thursday pushing up against the western CWA but
then seem to loose continuity.  The increased clouds and rain cooled
air should be enough to help keep temps a little cooler on Thursday.

Thursday looks to be the best chance of rain this week.  Eta
develops a large swath of precip ahead of a Pacific front by
Thursday from near Presidio... to Midland... to Childress that
pushes east across the area.  Gfs shows similar results but not as
widespread.  Could see precip develop as early as Wednesday
afternoon/evening across SE NM ahead of the approaching upper
trough.  Model soundings had been trying to dry out the airmass next
few days but are now pushing PW to near 1.6 inches by Thursday
morning.  Will have to continue to monitor developments for possible
heavy rain event.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27

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