Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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996
FXUS64 KMAF 300000
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
700 PM CDT Fri May 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Some storms have developed across the higher terrain of southwest
Texas and southeast New Mexico and drifted eastward, though have
not impacted area TAF sites. Expect this activity to gradually
wane after sunset this evening, with additional showers and
thunderstorms expected to develop along and ahead of a cold front
that will move southward through the area late tonight. Have not
made many changes to the going TAF wrt the timing of the front, as
passage around 09Z at KCNM/KHOB, 10Z at KINK/KMAF, 12Z at KPEQ,
and around 13Z at KFST still seem reasonable. The main question
will be the coverage of thunderstorms along/behind the front,
which still looks to be greatest across far southeast New Mexico
and the northern and eastern Permian Basin. Thus, have maintained
TEMPOs for TSRA at KHOB and KMAF. Other sites will bear watching,
especially if convection along the front is more robust. Low- end
MVFR to possibly IFR ceilings/visibility are possible in the wake
of the front, and while improvement is expected by mid- to late-
morning Saturday, a bkn-ovc cloud deck around 3kft could stick
around for much of the day. Winds will remain southeasterly this
evening, and then become northeasterly. gusting to 20 to 25kt
after the front passes late tonight, with gusts persisting
through the end of the forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT Fri May 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper trough over the central plains states moves off to the east
this afternoon.  By Saturday an upper ridge will begin to build across
the Western U.S. as the procession of upper troughs comes to an
end.  This will result in decreasing rain chances for the region
as May comes to an end.  This looks to be a significant change in
the wet pattern of the past month... MAF has recorded 12 days with
measurable rain so far this month with more rain expected tonight.
This ridge will slowly shift east with temperatures increasing across
the area into next week.

This afternoon... tonight... and tomorrow looks to be the last good
chance of rain in W TX and SE NM for the foreseeable future.  May see
some afternoon storms due to good moisture and daytime heating...
and a little bit of a dryline across Brewster county.  Good low
level moisture still extends back across the Trans Pecos and SE NM.
Rain chances increase tonight.  A weak cold front is expected to sag
down into the area overnight... storms look to develop along and
behind the front spreading south tonight.  The heaviest rain should
be after midnight.  A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect tonight
and Saturday morning for the Northern and Eastern Permian Basin.
Some of the model qpf shows heavy rain moving down across Gaines and
Martin counties... others not as much.  Have decided to expand the
watch a little westward across these counties.  For now have not
including Ector or Midland counties in the FFA but this could change
if conditions warrant.

Also have to consider the threat of severe storms this afternoon and
tonight.  Most of CWA north of the Pecos River is included in the
Day 1 slight risk.  A shortwave may combine with decent low level
moisture... good CAPE and shear to result in severe storms.  Storms
may begin with a hail threat then transition to strong wind and
heavy rain overnight.  However believe threat of heavy rain greater
than threat of severe wx.

With less rain and clouds around... will have more sunshine.  This
will result in warmer temperatures.  Highs in the 90s return to the
area early next week and continue through the end of the week.  In
the extended the forecast drys out with rain becoming much more
spotty.  A persistent surface trough hangs around the region most of
next week.  This trough and the higher elevations may be enough to
fire off a few storms but coverage will be low.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 10 PM CDT this evening through Saturday
     afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Borden...Dawson...
     Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...Martin...Mitchell...Reagan...
     Scurry.


&&

$$

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