Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 281134

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
534 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015

12Z TAF issuance.

The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is persistent low
cigs/vis affecting all terminals as well as the potential for FZRA
through the morning hours. Currently have a large area of light
precip moving NE over the region early this morning. Freezing
surface temps at CNM, HOB and potentially INK and MAF through the
morning hours will result in the possibility of -FZRA affecting
these sites. Warming temps expected this afternoon and all precip
expected to be all rain. Cigs and vis categories have been all over
the place tonight so expected bouncing cigs/vis through at least mid
day. Fairly uncertain of whether or not cig/vis conditions will
improve this afternoon but think ceilings could at least lift to
MVFR. Will continue to monitor current trends and amend when needed.
Conditions may deteriorate once again later tonight and may need to
include mention of this in subsequent TAF issuances.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 255 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015/

Strong upper low over the Great Basin will wobble northeast the
next few days.  This low has brought cold rain to the region.  As
this low passes east Tuesday a secondary trough will build on the
backside of it and move across AZ and NM moving into the region by

Surface ridge extends from the panhandle down across the area.
North wind will veer around to the east as ridge slides east.  The
wind will briefly go around to the south before a west wind blows
through Monday.

Still have rich Pacific moisture overrunning cold air at the surface
in post frontal conditions.  Early this morning radar shows
widespread rain extending up from Marfa across Midland/Odessa to
Gail and Snyder.  Reports indicate some sleet mixed in.  Surface
temps across SE NM and Northern Permian basin are at or below
freezing so this rain should be sticking on exposed surfaces.  The
main concern will be icing on power lines... bridges... and
overpasses.  This wintry precip will continue through the morning
hours with precip becoming all liquid by afternoon.  Highest pops
today will be over the east with lower over the west.

Much of the effects from the winter wx may not be known until the
sun comes up.  However have had a report overnight from Alpine of
ice forming on trees.  Temps today should warm a few degrees off the
morning lows but with continued rainfall and cloudy skies will not
warm much.  It appears by midday temps will be warm enough that this
winter wx event will be coming to an end.  Therefore will continue
with the Ice Storm Warning/Winter Wx Advisory until 18z.  Good
chance of rain again tonight... some could mix with freezing rain
toward morning across the northern counties.  Could see some
additional showers later in the week with the next upper trough.


NM...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...
     Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

     Ice Storm Warning until 11 AM MST this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Northern Lea County...
     Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ...Southern Lea County.

TX...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Ector...
     Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...Midland...Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54

     Ice Storm Warning until noon CST today FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...



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