Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 291708

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1208 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015

See 18Z aviation discussion below.


VFR and light southeast winds this TAF period.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 328 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015/


An upper ridge will retain hold over the region into next weekend.
This will allow temperatures to remain above normal through Friday,
if not Saturday, while rain chances will remain near zero areawide.
Although high temperatures will be fairly warm for late September
and early October, record high temperatures do not appear to be

The upper pattern will begin to change during the week, with the
upper ridge finally flattening out due to an initial and secondary
shortwave trough eventually carving a longwave trough out over the
Rockies by Friday.  All operational models handle the first two
shortwave troughs differently, and continue that trend with a
tertiary shortwave trough Saturday.  The timing of a cold front
dropping into the area will be determined by which of these
solutions pans out, but the disparity in solutions will likely leave
the front`s arrival time unknown for at least a few more days.  In
the interim, will go with the Super Blend and WPC Guidance.  This
portends a chance of rain Saturday through Monday, and for now, a
modest cool off Sunday and Monday.  Stay tuned, especially since
there could be a day or two period of higher rain chances than
currently in the forecast, if not much cooler temperatures Sunday
and Monday.







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