Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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582
FXUS64 KMAF 200951
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
351 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Another unseasonably warm day is expected with high temps some 10
degrees above normal as a weak cold front turns warm w-nw surface
winds to the n around/before mid day for areas n of I-20. To the s
of I-20 it will be warmer yet where 85h temps in the mid/upper teens
suggest 75 to 80 in the lower elevations of the Trans Pecos.
Meanwhile mid level flow will amplify starting early Wed as the srn
stream sharpens with a mid level trof across the swrn CONUS. An
initial lead 5h jetlet will quickly trek across nrn Mexico Wed PM
within a steepening lapse rate environment. The net result will be
an increased chance of SHRA/TSRA Wed PM into Thur AM, especially
across the Lower Trans Pecos and s/e PB. Cold air will be re-
enforced early Thur AM in assocn with nrn branch shrtwv trof. For
the most part temps will be above freezing early Thur AM, however
in parts of the nw-ne temps could be near freezing and SN/RA mix
or SN is possible there before 12Z. During the day Thur a closed
low (per GFS/Canadian) will be dropping s along the NM/AZ stateline
as an upstream 70kt 5h speed max helps to dig the low s. There`s
been some indication of the ECMWF trying to catch up to the more
closed soln of GFS/Canadian, but it has not as of the 00Z run.
What is interesting in the GFS/Canadian solutions are their match
to the Type B Heavy Snowfall climatology (digging srn branch
shrtwv trof/closed low from the nw) in the Lower Trans Pecos. Also
early on Thur the CIPS analog guidance does show some matches to
heavy snow events of the past (12/08/88 and 12/21/86) for the wrn
areas suggesting 3 to 6" of snow possible from the Davis to the
GDP Mtns which also fits with the Heavy Snowfall climatology.
There`s very good QPF agreement between the GFS/Canadian/ECMWF
Thur PM into Fri AM, but the question is rain or snow? Using 7h
temps and 85h-5h thickness the initial snow levels late Thur PM
will be between 5-6kft in the Davis and around 5kft in the GDP
Mtns then lowering further into the night. Farther s in the Lower
Trans Pecos and by 12Z Fri snow levels look to be between 4-5kft.
Concern for now is whether to issue a Winter Storm Watch for late
Thur PM thru Fri AM from the GDP Mtns to Davis/Glass Mtns. For now
will reflect higher PoPs with higher snowfall grids as Thur night
is just beyond our local threshold for issuance. Not too much of a
concern after Friday except for coolish weather thru Sunday and then
warmer Mon-Tue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 65  33  48  32  /   0   0  20  50
BIG SPRING TX              68  35  50  33  /   0   0  30  60
CARLSBAD NM                67  34  48  34  /   0   0  10  40
DRYDEN TX                  79  44  55  43  /   0   0  20  60
FORT STOCKTON TX           72  36  50  33  /   0   0  30  50
GUADALUPE PASS TX          63  33  44  29  /   0   0  10  40
HOBBS NM                   63  32  47  30  /   0   0  10  50
MARFA TX                   70  31  55  33  /   0   0  20  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    69  33  49  33  /   0   0  30  60
ODESSA TX                  67  33  49  33  /   0   0  30  50
WINK TX                    71  35  51  36  /   0   0  20  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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