Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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629
FXUS64 KMAF 210947
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
447 AM CDT Thu May 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...

An unseasonably cool and damp day is on tap across southeast New
Mexico and west Texas today in the wake of a cold front which has
become quasi-stationary across the Big Bend area. Temperatures today
are only expected to rise to the middle 50s across the southeastern
New Mexico plains to around 70 degrees across the Lower Trans
Pecos.  South of the front, temperatures markedly increase, with
highs in the 80s expected across the Big Bend area, and lower 90s
in the Rio Grande Valley. A series of weak disturbances in the
southwest flow aloft will provide forcing for ascent today ahead
of a more potent shortwave which looks to move across the region
overnight, and along with persistent moist easterly upslope flow,
will result in widespread shower and thunderstorm activity over
the next 24 hours. Cool temperatures and abundant cloud cover will
likely limit instability across much of the area today, though
through the Big Bend area where temperatures are expected to climb
into the 80s along and south of the stalled frontal boundary,
moderate instability is expected to combine with the upslope flow
and upper forcing to yield a threat for severe storm development.
Storms are expected to first develop over higher terrain, and as
they move into a more favorable/unstable environment, damaging
winds and large hail are expected to be the primary threat. Strong
shear across the Big Bend area and far Lower Trans Pecos near the
front will be supportive of supercells, and thus while not the
primary threat, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

As mentioned previously, a more potent shortwave is expected to
eject across the area tonight ahead of the western CONUS trough,
resulting in additional forcing for ascent and thus continued
opportunity for widespread showers/storms overnight.  However,
precipitation is expected to taper off early Friday morning as this
impulse lifts to the northeast, and with weak midlevel height rises
in the wake of this trough, a bit of reprieve is expected Friday as
temperatures begin to rebound into the 70s and 80s across much of
the area, with mid to upper 90s across the Rio Grande Valley.
For the weekend, sights turn to the western CONUS trough which
has been responsible for our maintained southwesterly flow aloft,
which will start to progress eastward on Saturday. Widespread
height falls and increasing forcing for ascent ahead of the trough
will yield increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms area-
wide through the weekend, given continued moisture-rich low levels
in persistent easterly/southeasterly flow. Warmer temperatures
through the weekend will also allow for at least moderate
instability, and thus, some of the storms on both Saturday and
Sunday could be strong to severe. The best chance for storms will
gradually shift eastward through the weekend as the upper trough
develops a positive tilt and lifts northeast of the area by late
Sunday/early Monday.

Upper ridging in the wake of the departing trough will yield a
break from precipitation through the first part of the week, as
temperatures climb back to near seasonal normals in the mid to
upper 80s and low 90s by Tuesday. Beyond midweek, the picture is
a bit less clear, as the GFS once again develops a longwave trough
over the western CONUS, resulting in a return to southwesterly
flow aloft by next Wednesday/Thursday, whereas the ECMWF maintains
more quasi-zonal flow through the end of next week, with only a
very weak trough developing over California. Will wait and see how
future model runs handle the evolution of the upper air pattern
before making any sweeping changes to the extended that far out.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 60  54  76  63  /  60  70  40  50
BIG SPRING TX              62  57  79  66  /  60  70  40  40
CARLSBAD NM                59  54  82  60  /  70  60  20  40
DRYDEN TX                  79  67  86  71  /  50  70  30  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           68  60  86  67  /  60  60  20  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          59  54  77  56  /  60  50  10  30
HOBBS NM                   54  51  75  58  /  70  70  30  60
MARFA TX                   73  52  86  55  /  60  50  20  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    62  56  80  66  /  60  60  40  40
ODESSA TX                  63  56  80  66  /  60  60  40  40
WINK TX                    65  56  85  67  /  70  60  30  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

72/84

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