Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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064
FXUS64 KMAF 190855
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
355 AM CDT Tue May 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Upper pattern remains active with a train of upper lows continuing
this week.  This morning an upper low was centered over the
Intermountain West with SW flow reaching across the area.  The first
low will move off to the east as another trough develops along the
CA coast.  This will develop into a closed low before rolling east
later in the week.  The result of this will be a continuation of the
wet pattern for the area.

Evening storms with severe wx and flash flooding lingered into the
early morning hours before moving east.  West TX Mesonet at
Coyanosa reported 4.15 inches and St.Lawrence reported 1.54
inches... most of that falling in 1 hr.  An Areal Flood Warning will
remain in effect all night due to the heavy rain near Coyanosa that
resulted in several feet of water over the road.  A Flash Flood
Watch remains in effect through midday generally along and north of
the Pecos River.  Surface dewpts into the 60s... even as far west as
CNM... and model soundings show PW over 1.3 inches indicate the
potential for heavy rain will continue through the morning.  Most of
the additional rain today should be northeast of Pecos county but
since flooding is ongoing will add them to the FFA.

More storms expected today and have the potential for flash flooding
and severe wx.  The best chance of rain today will be over the
NE Permian Basin and carrying likely pops.  Most models seem to be in
some agreement as to developing additional storms to the west of the
area overnight and moving it across the region early in the day.  As
of 08z have begun to get some new development across Eddy and Chavez
counties.  Flooding will be the main concern through midday with
severe wx in the afternoon.  Looking at the development of a dryline
this afternoon which could become the focus for storm development.
There is a slight risk of severe wx today mainly for the eastern
half of the area.  Supercells will be possible during the afternoon
with hail... wind... and a few tornadoes.  Models develop pops and
qpf like crazy over the next several days... especially Thursday and
Friday.

Temps will be in the 80s Tuesday and Wednesday before a cold front
moves through late Wednesday. E/NE wind will keep it cooler on
Thursday with highs in the 70s.  Warmer temps return to the 80s on
Thursday and continue that way into early next week.  Lows in the
50s and 60s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 84  64  85  60  /  50  20  20  30
BIG SPRING TX              83  67  84  61  /  60  30  40  40
CARLSBAD NM                87  54  87  58  /  20  10  10  20
DRYDEN TX                  92  69  89  69  /  20  20  20  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           88  66  88  64  /  30  20  20  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          82  55  84  57  /  10  10  10  20
HOBBS NM                   84  59  82  57  /  40  20  20  30
MARFA TX                   85  48  85  55  /  10  10  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    85  66  85  61  /  50  20  30  30
ODESSA TX                  86  66  86  62  /  50  20  20  30
WINK TX                    89  63  91  64  /  30  20  10  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until Noon MDT today FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 1 PM CDT this afternoon FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...
     Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...Loving...Martin...
     Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Upton...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

84/72

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