Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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511
FXUS64 KMAF 230155
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
855 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015

.UPDATE...
First period pops.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Had much less storm coverage this afternoon and most of these
have died out.  Updated forecast to lower overnight pops.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...See 00Z Aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...00Z TAF issuance...
Looks like the only concern for the next couple of hours will be
the possibility of TSRA near KPEQ and KFST. For now...will leave
out of the TAF`s since it looks like any convection will die out
before reaching those sites...but will continue to monitor radar
trends. Looks like the convection will decrease rapidly after
sunset. There should be less chance of any TSRA on Thursday across
the TAF sites as the ridge builds west over the Southern Plains.

Strobin

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 141 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The upper ridge that has persisted over the region the past few
weeks gave way to scattered showers and thunderstorms yesterday.
Storms developed within a high theta-e axis near a sfc trough and
along remnant outflow boundaries. The ridge has changed little in
strength today, but has begun to move west. Expect the greatest
coverage of storms this afternoon to stay across the western half
of the CWA, roughly west of a Seminole to Odessa to Ft. Stockton
line. As was the case yesterday, heavy rain will be a possibility
with slow storm motions and PWATs near 1.5".

The upper ridge strengthens and drifts back across the area into
this weekend. Thunderstorm chances will become limited to the
higher terrain each day with temperatures climbing back into the
90`s and 100`s.

There is an indication in the long-range models that the upper ridge
may shift into the Four-Corners region late next week. This would
help cool temperatures a few degrees and might even allow a better
chance of storms back in the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  75 100  75 100  /  10   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                    72  99  71 101  /  40  20  20  20
DRYDEN TX                      75 101  75 100  /  10  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               73 100  74 100  /  20  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              68  88  69  90  /  50  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                       71  96  70  98  /  30  10  10  10
MARFA TX                       64  91  63  92  /  40  40  20  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        74 100  74 100  /  10   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                      76  99  75  98  /  20  10  10   0
WINK TX                        76 103  77 103  /  30  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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