Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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805
FXUS64 KMAF 051821
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
121 PM CDT Tue May 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 05/18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will persist at all area terminals save KMAF and KFST.
At these sites, there is a possibility of TSRA in the 19Z-00Z time
frame, call it a 1 in 4 chance, but not high enough to include in
these forecasts. Before sunrise Wednesday, Gulf stratus is expected
to affect KMAF and KFST in about the 10Z-14Z time range before
burning off by mid morning.  Winds will be west to southwest this
afternoon before backing to a southerly direction this evening, then
veering back around to the southwest by mid morning Wednesday.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...

A complicated setup this afternoon. The overnight convection has
left its mark on the CWA, with the MCV now migrating over SWrn OK
and an extensive shield of low clouds east of a Big Spring -
Garden City - Langtry line. The significant boundaries are a quasi-
dryline extending from Persimmon Gap NNEwd to just east of Midland
where it intersects an outflow boundary.  This boundary is presently
located from the eastern slopes of the Sacramentos/Guadalupes bending
SSEwd to the triple point just east of Midland then from there
(more of an occlusion) NEwd to near Childress.

Convection is firing off the Sacramentos now, and agitated MOGR CU
is evident along the dryline south of Midland, where scattered cells
are going up ATTM. The supplemental 18Z sounding from KMAF gives
an LI of -6 and uncapped at a bit over 2000 J/kg. Right now, shear
looks to be a limiting factor, with multicells the dominant mode.
Conditional severe looks to be high with any updraft that can
remain discrete, probably taking on more of an HP mode given ample
PWAT and a weakness in the wind field in the 800-600 hPa. The
dryline is expected to retreat Wwd later this afternoon, bringing
with it a chance of CI maybe back as far as a Seminole - Alpine
line. With potentially cooler air north and east of the triple
point, and evapotranspiration adding moisture into the "dry" air,
it`s going to be difficult to pinpoint other areas of CI other
than the aforementioned mountains and along the dryline. Basically
we`re in wait-and-see mode.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70

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